2026 年 2 月 2 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑偏 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 7014 | -0.50% | 880853 | -9081 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -154 | | -169 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -55 | | -55 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6860 | | 6880 | | | | 华东 | 7000 | | 6950 | | | | 华南 | 7030 | | 7030 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕龙 ...

2026年02月02日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 期货研究 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属夜盘全线暴跌，黄金与白银价格均大幅下挫，其中白银跌幅尤为剧烈。 基本面：特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，引爆市场鹰派预期；美国联邦政府面临部分停摆，参议院拨款表 决陷入僵持；美国 12 月 PPI 同比 3%超预期，核心 PPI 环比上涨 0.7%，服务成本大幅攀升。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5.9 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1087.1 吨，+0.57；COMEX 白银库存为 12696.7 吨，-106.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 482 吨， -26.4 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15523 吨，-112.8 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月 末白银库存从 27183 吨增至 27814 吨；印度 11 月白银进口约 750 吨左右，10 月进口修正为 1898 吨。 交易策略：当前贵金属市场波动率高，黄金短期内建议多单减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold and silver markets has been triggered by the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to significant price corrections after reaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Event Catalysts - The immediate cause of the gold price drop was Trump's nomination of the hawkish candidate, Waller, for the Federal Reserve chair, which raised concerns about tighter monetary policy and led to a sell-off in gold [4]. - The market's reaction was exacerbated by fears of a government shutdown, increasing liquidity concerns and risk aversion among investors [4]. - The underlying market structure was already fragile, with gold prices having surged to nearly $5,600 per ounce, and implied volatility reaching over 46%, indicating a high sensitivity to negative news [4]. Group 2: Short-term Volatility - Gold has entered a high volatility phase, with technical correction pressures, but extreme volatility often leads to concentrated selling pressure, potentially creating a rebound opportunity [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that after extreme volatility peaks, gold prices can experience significant fluctuations without necessarily indicating a trend reversal [6]. - The current market pricing of Waller's policies may be premature, as the feasibility of his hawkish stance amid economic pressures is uncertain [6]. Group 3: Long-term Logic - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by three core pillars: monetary easing, global de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks [7][10]. - The global interest rate cycle is expected to continue, with a projected easing period starting in September 2024, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7]. - Central banks are actively increasing gold reserves, with notable purchases from China and Poland, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [7][10]. Group 4: Investment Direction - Investors are encouraged to utilize gold ETFs and other investment tools to capitalize on market fluctuations and long-term trends [13]. - The gold ETF linked to physical gold is recommended for those seeking lower volatility, while gold stock ETFs may offer higher returns during price increases [13]. - For broader resource exposure, mining ETFs that cover various commodities are suggested, as they may provide strong profit potential amid resource scarcity [13].

2026.02.02-02.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈"冲高回落"走势。于1月29日创下1249.12元/克的 高点。随后因美联储暂停降息的信号明确，美元指数反弹至9 7 . 1 2，叠 加多头大量获利了结，金价大幅回调，净多持仓显著下降。 短期来看，金价或进入高位震荡阶段。一方面，地缘不确定性、全球 央行购金等长期支撑依然存在；另一方面，美联储政策转向与美元可能 的持续反弹将构成主要压制，且技术面存在回调需求。后市需重点关注 地缘局势演变、美元指数动向及市场资金面变化，警惕避险情绪退潮带 来的价格调整风险。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，下方支撑位1085－1095元/克，建 议逢低买入，短期高位波动较大注意控制仓位。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2604短期高位大幅回调，上方压力：1115－1165元/克， 下方支 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，贵金属剧 烈波动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-02 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 特朗普对于伊朗的态度暗昧不清，市场地缘风险短期回落，市 场风险偏好走低。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期 PMI 虽不及预期，但潜在利空因素仍然较多，后续市场震荡转 弱的概率较高。 综 宏观策略（黄金） 合 唐纳德•特朗普提名凯文•沃什出任美联储主席 晨 报 周五贵金属剧烈波动，黄金大跌白银暴跌，特朗普提名凯文沃 什为下任美联储主席，由于其鹰派的历史，市场预期后续货币 政策将采取降息+缩表的模式，短期流动性释放预期下降。 农产品（棉花） 截至 1 月 22 日当周，25/26 年度美棉周度签约量环比同比大降 至 4.62 万吨，但装运有所提速。25/26 美棉出口签约进度仍落后， 后续出口情况仍需持续跟踪。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+原则上同意三月份继续暂停原定增产计划 油价略偏强，中东地缘冲突风险支撑油价。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 2025 年完成港口货物吞吐量 183.4 亿吨 ...

上周油气资产表现强劲，主要受地缘政治风险加剧与极端寒潮天气双重驱动。受中东局势紧张的担忧持 续升温影响，特别是美国对伊朗潜在军事行动的言论引发供应中断预期，国际油价涨幅达7.3%，同 时，美国墨西哥湾沿岸遭遇历史性冬季风暴，导致原油日产量一度减少约200万桶，进一步收紧短期供 应预期，支撑油价短期强劲反弹。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 基本面上，原油供过于求或仍然延续，目前的原油库存水平仍然较高且有上行趋势。但目前市场对原油 过剩或已有充分预期，基本面的不利要素或已经被部分计价。近期在宏观高波动环境下市场的合力也证 明油在大类资产中的相对优势。 展望远期，油价60左右筑底或已经比较确定，地缘扰动以及潜在金油比修复可能有望催化向上空间，长 周期角度油价具有性价比。油气产业有望受益于油价上行，具备配置价值。 此外，近期欧洲和北美地区的寒潮活动也导致了对天然气的需求激增。本周天然气价格大涨，极端天气 带来的短期供需错配直接支撑油气价格短期反弹。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly due to factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global economic growth outlook. However, the large influx of speculative funds has also increased the volatility of precious metal prices. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance but control their position sizes, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4]. - In the medium term, geopolitical risks, safe - haven demand from the US mid - term elections, liquidity premiums from global central bank easing, and the weakening of the US dollar will drive London gold to 5500 - 6000 US dollars per ounce in 2026. Silver will outperform gold, with the gold - silver ratio expected to fall to 40 - 45, and London silver's target price at 120 - 150 US dollars per ounce. The performance ranking of precious metals in 2026 is silver > platinum > palladium > gold > 10%. Investors are recommended to take a bullish approach, and medium - to long - term investors can gradually build positions, with a focus on gold and a small amount of silver, platinum, and palladium. Stable investors can consider arbitrage opportunities by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold. Long hedgers should gradually establish hedging positions, and short hedgers should reduce their hedging ratios [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's tariff threats and the news of announcing the Fed chair nominee led to a rebound in the US dollar and some long - position profit - taking. The precious metal sector declined by over 5%, and London gold fell to around 5100 US dollars per ounce [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: The closing prices of all domestic precious metal indices decreased. The decline of the Guangzhou Futures Palladium Index was the largest at - 12.02%, and the decline of the Shanghai Gold Index was - 7.07% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Due to Trump's policy shift, the Fed's and ECB's balance - sheet expansion, and other factors, the US dollar will be weak. Geopolitical risks, safe - haven demand, liquidity premiums, and the weak US dollar will drive precious metals higher. Silver will be stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [6]. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1st to 2nd, including live - fire shooting [18]. - South Africa is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on vehicle imports from China and India to protect its auto industry. In 2024, Chinese vehicles accounted for 53% of South Africa's total vehicle imports, and Indian vehicles accounted for 22% [18]. - Trump said Putin agreed to suspend air strikes on Ukraine for a week, plans to announce the next Fed chair nominee next week, and the US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace for US oil companies to conduct surveys [18]. - The US Senate failed to advance a government funding bill, and the US federal government may face a partial shutdown as funds for several federal departments will run out on January 30th [18].

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in precious metals, with gold dropping 3.61% to $4718 per ounce and silver falling nearly 8% to a low of $79 per ounce, marking a historic plunge in the market [1][2] - International crude oil prices also opened lower, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 2%, reported at $63 per barrel and $67 per barrel respectively, amid concerns of potential military action by the U.S. against Iran [2][3] - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin falling below $77,000 to $76,459, and over 160,000 traders facing liquidation in the past 24 hours [2][4] Group 2 - The Indian stock market saw a significant drop, with the Nifty 50 index falling over 700 points, nearly 3%, driven by a sell-off in metal stocks, which saw the NIFTY metal index decline by over 5% [4][5] - The Saudi stock market recorded its largest drop in nearly eight months, with the overall index falling close to 2.6%, heavily impacted by a global sell-off in metals [5] - U.S. President Trump's comments regarding Iran indicated a potential for conflict, which may have contributed to market volatility, while Iranian officials expressed optimism about reaching an agreement with the U.S. on nuclear issues [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses the role of gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by geopolitical tensions and market risk, which have historically pushed gold prices higher since 2026 [6] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases to optimize foreign exchange reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks, contributing to the demand for gold [6] - The article notes that the gold market is characterized by volatility, with rapid price increases often followed by sharp declines due to technical sell-offs and leveraged positions [6]

Market Overview - The recent oil market has experienced significant volatility, with prices showing both sharp increases and declines throughout the week, indicating a certain level of fragility in the current pricing environment [5][42] - Reports at the beginning of the year suggested that 2026 would be a year of oversupply, with fundamental price estimates around WTI $60 per barrel, but geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have introduced uncertainty [5][42] - The market reacted to news of potential Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily drove prices up before a pullback due to broader market conditions [5][42] Price Data - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up $4.81 (+7.3%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up $4.14 (+6.78%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.86 per barrel, up $4.05 (+6.35%) [6][43] - The price movements were influenced by increased liquidity in the market due to rising gold prices and heightened geopolitical risk premiums related to US-Iran tensions [9][43] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 2.295 million barrels; production slightly declined to 13.696 million barrels per day, while imports fell by 805,000 barrels per day and exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day, leading to a net import decrease [6][24][57] - Despite the decrease in supply, downstream refined product demand remains weak, particularly outside of gasoline, indicating a mixed outlook for the oil market [6][24][57] Terminal Demand - US highway transportation activity has shown typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volume and capacity following the peak season, indicating limited potential demand decline [30][62] - The overall transportation situation has stabilized, although winter weather poses short-term challenges [30][62] Domestic Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.4% to 90.90%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operations despite the slight decline [25][59] - The processing margins for major refineries were reported at 659.83 CNY per ton, while independent refineries saw a significant drop in profitability, down 34.75% from the previous week [35][59]