Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market is experiencing a decline, while international prices show mixed results, influenced by geopolitical developments and upcoming central bank meetings [1][3][4]. Price Movements - As of August 19, 2025, the main contracts for domestic gold and silver are priced at 775.28 CNY per gram (down 0.10%) and 9182.00 CNY per kilogram (down 0.30%), respectively [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3380.40 CNY per ounce (up 0.07%), while COMEX silver is at 37.90 USD per ounce (down 0.45%) [1]. Market Analysis - On August 18, COMEX gold saw a slight decline, closing at 3377.0 USD per ounce (down 0.03%), while SHFE gold also fell to 775.04 CNY per gram (down 0.13%) [4]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could provide support for gold prices if dovish signals are communicated [4]. Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is a focal point, with discussions on security cooperation and potential future meetings involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. [3]. - Despite some progress in negotiations, significant geopolitical risks remain, which continue to support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [3].

Group 1 - Gold attracted some bargain buying during the Asian session on August 19, moving away from a two-week low reached the previous day, supported by increasing belief that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September [1][2] - Silver prices remained subdued for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading around $38.00 per ounce during the Asian session, facing challenges due to shrinking safe-haven demand amid positive signals regarding a potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war [1][2] - Market sentiment turned cautious ahead of talks between Trump and Zelensky, with geopolitical discussions attracting global attention, highlighting the importance of the upcoming meetings involving several European leaders [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September provided some support for silver prices, with market expectations for a rate cut currently at 84%, reinforcing the view that policy easing may begin next month [2] - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is under pressure below the EMA50 moving average, with bearish signals from the RSI suggesting that sellers continue to dominate market trends [3] - Silver is hovering above a bearish double top formation, with a critical support level at $37.50; a decisive break below this level could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term pressures on gold prices due to various negative factors, there is strong support for further long-term increases in gold prices [1][2] - Multiple negative factors, including the clarification of U.S. gold import tariffs and fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, have contributed to the recent decline in gold prices after failing to break the $3400 per ounce level [1] - The easing of geopolitical risks from U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine talks has led to a temporary reduction in market risk aversion, but underlying issues such as U.S. sovereign credit concerns and the global trend of de-dollarization remain significant [1][2] Group 2 - Long-term support for gold prices is driven by ongoing accumulation of U.S. debt, the implementation of the "Great Beauty" plan, and the potential weakening of the dollar's credibility [2] - The ongoing trade war is expected to hinder global economic recovery, which may enhance the investment value of gold [2] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential rate cuts in the coming months, is anticipated to provide new upward momentum for gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant fluctuation in gold prices, with a notable increase to approximately $3357 per ounce after a drop to $3323.50 earlier in the day, driven by geopolitical risks [1][2] - Last week, international gold prices experienced a cumulative decline of 3.11%, marking the largest weekly drop since March of this year [1] - The focus of investors has shifted towards the U.S.-Ukraine talks, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - FXStreet's senior analyst Mehta indicates that the next bullish target for gold prices is at last week's high of $3375 per ounce, followed by a target of $3400 per ounce [3]

换资前言： 2025下半年你打算拿什么去面对自己曾经许下的宏愿？我们最初踏入这个市场，都怀揣着赚钱的梦想， 然而，一次次的锁仓，被套，亏损！在自己一次次的亏损里，套的越来越深，亏得越多了。我给不你了 太多保证，但有个词叫尽我所能，安稳盈利！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(8月18日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，目前金价升至3357美元/盎司附近，日内大涨逾20美 元，亚市早盘金价一度跌至3323.50美元/盎司。但在地缘政治风险隐现之际，金价升向3360美元/盎司。 目前投资者焦点转向美乌会谈。地缘政治的不确定性继续在推动对传统价值储藏工具黄金的避险需求方 面发挥着关键作用。美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京上周末在阿拉斯加举行了备受期待的会晤，但没 有达成乌克兰和平协议。因此，所有人的目光都转向特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一的会晤。 本周（8月21-23日）的杰克逊霍尔研讨会是市场焦点，尤其是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲。 中央银行家将倾向于鸽派言论，避免鹰派立场，这可能支撑金价。会议可能影响美元走势，进而波及黄 金市场。鉴于经济日历相对清淡，杰克逊霍尔会议被视为潜 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices showed a trend of stopping decline and adjusting after a sideways consolidation, but were continuously suppressed by the 5 - day moving average on the daily chart. The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages both declined, forming a bearish arrangement, confirming continuous downward pressure on the market [3]. - The US - Russia meeting did not reach a substantial agreement, but a preliminary consensus on a cease - fire in Ukraine was reached, and the US temporarily withdrew the threat of sanctions on Russian oil. This meeting was more of a "break - the - ice" move, releasing no bullish signals, leading to a lower opening of the overseas crude oil market and an increased risk of a mid - term breakdown [3]. - The expectation of a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine is rising. The US may provide security guarantees similar to Article 5 of NATO for Ukraine, and Russia may acquiesce, clearing the obstacles for a cease - fire agreement. Although the agreement has not been finalized, the direction of a rapid cooling of the situation is clear, the geopolitical risk level is decreasing, and the potential support for crude oil is continuously weakening [3]. - If a final cease - fire is achieved, the geopolitical premium since 2022 will face a systematic correction. Coupled with OPEC + turning to increasing production, the core support for the bulls will further erode [3]. - Fundamentally, the seasonal demand inflection point is approaching, and the suppression of crude oil will gradually emerge. The risk of market surplus may become the main trading theme in the later period, and time is unfavorable to crude oil bulls. The current market has not fully reflected the fundamental bearish factors, and attention is still scattered by short - term events, but potential bearish risks need to be vigilant [3]. - In the medium and long term, the fundamental trend is clearly weakening, and the bearish orientation remains unchanged. Overall, the US - Russia meeting brought no substantial benefits, coupled with the weakening of geopolitical support and the accumulation of fundamental bearish factors, the risk of a mid - term breakdown of crude oil prices has intensified. Short - term developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation still need to be tracked, and in the medium and long term, the gradual pricing of fundamental bearish factors needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - On the 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting at the Elmendorf - Richardson Joint Military Base in Anchorage, Alaska. They did not give speeches at the beginning of the meeting. The meeting was expected to last 6 - 7 hours [6]. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, showing a significant increase for the second consecutive month, with the previous value revised up to 0.9%. The year - on - year increase in July retail sales reached 3.9%, and the real retail sales after inflation adjustment increased by 1.2% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month [7]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US President Trump in Washington. European leaders were invited to attend the "Trump - Zelensky meeting" next Monday. EU Commission President von der Leyen and German Chancellor Merz confirmed their attendance [7]. - Trump and European leaders discussed providing non - NATO but equivalent to Article 5 security guarantees for Ukraine [7]. - After the Trump - Putin meeting, it was stated that there is currently no plan to impose additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil, but this issue may be considered in two or three weeks [7]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 8 in the US, EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 275,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 3.029 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 226,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 45,000 barrels, with the previous increase of 453,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 792,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 693,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.323 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 714,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 725,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 565,000 barrels [8]. - Crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.4%, compared with an expected 96.8% and a previous 96.9% [8]. CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 815,102 lots, a decrease of 84,832 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,975,316 lots, a decrease of 6,284 lots compared with the previous trading day [9]. - The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 22,330 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 195,944 lots, an increase of 2,902 lots compared with the previous trading day [9].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is influenced by both geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data, with potential fluctuations depending on the outcomes of international negotiations and inflation trends [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of August 18, the dollar index is priced at 97.90, with a slight increase of 0.05% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The dollar index faced resistance below 98.25 and found support above 97.70, indicating a potential for upward movement after a short-term decline [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Analysts from ING suggest that a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations could reduce geopolitical risks, potentially putting pressure on the dollar [1] - The dual role of the dollar as a safe-haven and a currency for energy-producing countries makes the current negotiation stalemate favorable for the dollar [1] Group 3: Inflation and Federal Reserve Expectations - Recent U.S. wholesale inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a market adjustment of Federal Reserve rate cut predictions [1] - If the inflation trend continues, it may provide support for the dollar that could counterbalance any negative impacts from potential ceasefire agreements [1] - The future direction of the dollar will depend on the interplay between geopolitical developments and economic data [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile correction. Higher - than - expected US inflation data dampened rate - cut expectations, and the optimistic global trade sentiment boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][5]. - The higher - than - expected US PPI data in July indicated persistent inflation pressure, and the labor market remained resilient, weakening the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. However, some senior officials still called for rate cuts, and monetary policy remained highly uncertain [3][5]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its potential impact on the geopolitical situation and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 775.80 | - 12.00 | - 1.52 | 197655 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 623.59 | 31.69 | 5.35 | 23234 | 198744 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3381.70 | - 76.50 | - 2.21 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9204 | - 74 | - 0.80 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 7762 | 212 | 2.81 | 452542 | 3447314 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.02 | - 0.49 | - 1.27 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices showed a volatile correction last week due to higher - than - expected US inflation data and optimistic global trade sentiment [3][5]. - The US PPI data in July and the labor market situation weakened the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, but there were still calls for rate cuts from some officials, and monetary policy was uncertain [3][5]. - After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the market is paying attention to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its impact on geopolitics and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver will be volatile in the short term. This week, key data such as the preliminary PMI data for July in the US and the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US should be focused on, as well as events like the release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and the possible US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [6]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February [8]. - US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, further frustrating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, a slight decrease of 3,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021. The number of continued claims dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering at a high level since 2021, indicating a still - robust labor market [8]. - US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing for the tenth consecutive month. The year - on - year increase was 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year, showing resilient consumer spending [8]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than the expected 62, and the sub - indices also declined. Both short - and long - term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs [9]. - The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US in August was 4.9%, erasing last month's improvement, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, higher than expected [9]. - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Eurozone in August was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. In Germany, it was 34.7, lower than the expected 39.8 and the previous value of 52.7 [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from last week, 21.74 tons from last month, and 110.40 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15071.31 tons, an increase of 80.51 tons from last week, 413.10 tons from last month, and 595.01 tons from last year [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures on August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 288,115, non - commercial short positions were 58,630, and non - commercial net long positions were 229,485, a decrease of 7,565 from last week. For silver futures on the same date, non - commercial long positions were 66,252, non - commercial short positions were 21,984, and non - commercial net long positions were 44,268, a decrease of 6,390 from last week [11][13].

此外，美国经济数据也利空金价。上周公布的美国7月PPI数据远超市场预期，同比上涨3.3%，创下近3 年最大涨幅；环比上涨0.9%，大幅高于市场预期的0.2%，为2022年6月以来的最大涨幅。美国通胀升温 使美联储9月降息预期下降，叠加美联储官员的鹰派言论，金价承压回落。 消息面上，上周五美俄领导人会晤备受市场关注。 转自：期货日报 上周，在多重因素的共同作用下，市场避险情绪显著降温，国际金价承压回落。其中，纽约黄金期货、 伦敦金现货价格均下跌约2%，双双跌破3400元／盎司大关。 中信建投期货分析师王彦青在接受记者采访时表示，上周市场避险情绪降温，主要受两方面因素影响： 一是美俄领导人会晤释放积极信号，地缘政治风险下降；二是中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈 联合声明》，市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧进一步减弱，风险偏好随之提升。 据央视新闻消息，美俄领导人8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州举行会晤但没有达成协议。美国总统特朗普8月 16日表示，将与乌克兰总统泽连斯基于美东时间8月18日下午在白宫椭圆形办公室会面。如果一切顺 利，接下来将安排美国、俄罗斯、乌克兰三方领导人会晤。就此，泽连斯基表示，乌支持举行乌美俄三 方会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including calls for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and economic data performance [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3,385.0 USD per ounce, up 0.07% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for interest rate cuts has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction next month, which typically supports non-yielding gold prices [3]. - Tariff policies and geopolitical issues, including statements from Trump regarding tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, as well as tensions in regions like Israel and Ukraine, have increased market risk aversion, impacting gold prices [3]. - Economic data, such as the July CPI showing moderate inflation, supports the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, influencing gold investment demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve may support gold prices, although rising U.S. stock markets and easing geopolitical tensions could limit safe-haven demand [4]. - Long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are likely to drive gold prices higher, although improvements in U.S. economic data or unexpected Federal Reserve policy changes could restrict price increases [4].