2025年末，受气候异常扰动、地缘冲突升级与供需格局错配等因素影响，全球大宗商品市场迎来一轮强劲的上涨行情。多数品种价格涨势如虹，核心品类更 是表现亮眼。 其中，贵金属延续牛市，12月24日，COMEX黄金期货站到4550美元/盎司上方，COMEX白银则飙升至72美元/盎司以上，二者均有望创下1979年以来的最强 年度表现。同时，铜价刷新历史高位至11952美元/吨，铂金因连续三年供应短缺，价格同步走高。 农产品期货价格则因动态的供需结构性矛盾，走势不一。玉米价格持续走高，小麦、大豆、豆油和豆粕在阶段性回落后发生转向，价格呈现一定的上扬趋 势。 2026年，在全球流动性变奏、地缘风险演变及产业需求转型等变量交织下，大宗商品价格会延续牛市行情，还是会发生转向？未来市场走向备受关注。 贵金属表现强势，白银"跑赢"黄金 今年年初，国际金价还在2600-2700美元/盎司的区间震荡，如今每盎司金价已经突破4550美元，年内涨幅超六成。白银的表现更是突出，年内价格累涨约 140%，涨幅"跑赢"黄金。随着白银的暴涨，金银比已经从今年年初的85:1收窄至70以下。 | — 纽约银主连 | 72.275 | 高 72.750 ...

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2995 with a gain of 0.17%, reaching a high of 3010 and a low of 2983, with a cumulative increase of 3.6% over the past week [2][29] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight decline of 0.03%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][29] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong remained stable at 2920 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week and a cumulative increase of 0% over the past week [2][29] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price was 3090 yuan/ton, also unchanged, while the basis in Shandong was -75 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton over the past week [2][29] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -189 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1 yuan/ton over the past week, while the BU main contract rose by 0.17% and Brent remained unchanged [2][29] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to short-term price stabilization but with ongoing uncertainty [2][29] Fundamental Changes - Recent developments regarding Venezuelan oil exports remain a key risk factor, with U.S. military orders for a two-month "quarantine" on Venezuelan oil, following a comprehensive blockade initiated by Trump [3][30] - Venezuela's oil exports are hindered by sanctions, forcing oil to be stored on tankers, with China being the primary destination for approximately 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, indicating a high dependency of Chinese refineries on Venezuelan crude [3][30] Supply and Inventory - The dilution asphalt discount widened, with Malaysia's dilution asphalt discount recorded at -14.46 USD/barrel as of December 24, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][31] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow inventory reduction [4][31] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt prices have slightly increased since early December, fluctuating around 3000, with significant volatility observed [5][32] - Downstream road demand is in a seasonal lull, maintaining a weak price outlook, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on winter storage trends [5][32] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging single-sided trading approach [6][33]

以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者就是轱辘慧 财经连环话 . 一图看懂财经万象。 今天一睁眼，慧慧直接被黄金闪瞎了眼！ ✨ 再加上俄乌局势僵持，大家发现，这世界风险根本停不下来。避险需求从 " 临时补货 " 变成了 " 长期囤货 " ，金价能不涨吗？ 2. 货币宽松：美联储"放水"，金价起飞 历史数据告诉我们， 美联储从紧缩变宽松，就是黄金牛市最有力的引擎！ 现在美国通胀回落、就业放缓，市场对 2026 年降息预期爆棚。 就在周三亚盘，现货黄金史上 第一次冲破了 4500 美元 / 盎司 的大关！白银更疯，年内涨了 140% ！ 看着这金灿灿的 K 线图，慧慧手里的小金豆 突然就不香了（因为买少了呜呜）。 但先别急着梭哈！在这场 " 黄金狂欢 " 背后，有些深层逻辑和 迫在眉睫的风险 ，慧慧必须给你们盘清楚！ 01 黄金大涨的三个"硬核原因" 1. 地缘紧张：世界很乱，黄金很"香" 这轮金价飙升，地缘紧张绝对是 " 神助攻 "。 那边泰柬冲突还没停，这边拉美又搞起 " 南方之矛 " 行动，美军战舰都开到委内瑞拉门口了。 美元利差收窄，资金寻找避风港，黄金的货币属性和对冲风险价值就凸显出来了，这可不是单一事件刺激 ...

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收跌0.39%，沪银主力收涨2.64%，铂金主力收涨4.51%，钯金主力收涨跌7.65%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美委、泰柬 、俄乌等地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水平。美 国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高 位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-25原油早报 原油2602： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：一位美国官员对路透表示，白宫已下令美军在未来至少两个月内几乎完全专注于对委内瑞 拉石油的"封锁"，"虽然军事选项仍然存在，但重点是首先通过执行制裁施加经济压力，以实现白 宫寻求的结果"；行业人士称，由于乌克兰无人机袭击损毁里海管道联盟（CPC）主要出口终端设施， 12月经该管道从哈萨克斯坦运输的石油量预计将下降三分之一，降至2024年10月以来最低水平；中性 2.基差：12月24日，阿曼原油现货价为62.77美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.95美元/桶，基差 16.98元/桶，现货升水期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching over $4,500 per ounce, is primarily driven by the ongoing restructuring of global monetary credit and rising U.S. debt risks, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets and a shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 24, spot gold prices hit a record high of $4,511.504 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 71% [2]. - The COMEX gold price also reached $4,549.3 per ounce, indicating strong market performance [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting increases of 8 to 44 yuan per gram compared to previous days [2]. Group 2: Underlying Factors - The primary support for gold prices stems from the persistent rise in U.S. debt risks and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the ongoing U.S. interest rate cuts will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness compared to cash and bonds, especially in a high inflation environment [3][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite some investors exiting the gold market, many institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term value, citing strong demand from central banks in countries like China and India [4][5]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic uncertainties continue to bolster gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of further price increases [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the ongoing U.S. rate cuts and macroeconomic shifts will support gold's long-term investment appeal, despite short-term trading risks [6].

面对不断突破想象的黄金"牛市"，投资者应如何看待？ 行至年末，黄金、白银开启强势单边上涨模式，价格双双再创新高。 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金有史以来首次站上4500美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银自12月23日站上70美元/盎司 后，24日一举突破72美元/盎司，同样刷新历史纪录。今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅超70%，银价暴涨 约150%。在外盘带动下，国内金价同步突破关键大关，上海黄金交易所现货黄金(Au99.99)价格在12月 23日突破1000元/克后继续走高。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，美国与委内瑞拉的地缘关系调 整、伊朗与以色列的潜在冲突、俄乌冲突的不确定性，以及美元疲软和美联储降息预期升温等多重因 素，合力为金价、银价提供上涨动能。 消息面上，当地时间12月23日，美国总统特朗普表示，任何不同意他观点的人永远不会成为美联储主 席。希望新任主席在市场表现良好的情况下降低利率。 对此，五矿期货贵金属研究员钟俊轩对上海证券报记者表示，市场对新任美联储主席"鸽派"预期增强， 国际银价显著受益。 此外，在白银现货供需层面，白银ETF的持仓量趋势性增加。外盘最大的iShares白银E ...

| E 1 3/4 1 . | | | --- | --- | | - | | | 3 D | | | D | | | 1 | œ | | 1 | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月24日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的闲 置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应收 紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新 低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。她缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性 反弹动力。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 她缘政治风险仍在持续，进一步推高原油成本,并带动燃料油价格上行 ...

有色金属专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 特朗普 2.0 政策通过对等关税引发通胀预期和经济滞涨，地缘政治风险 增加避险需求，共同推高黄金价格，并加剧全球经济压力。 2025 年前三季度全球黄金供需增速均为 3%，但结构变化显著：金饰品 需求因高金价下降，央行购金放缓，ETF 投资成为主要支撑。 黄金税收新政区分投资性和非投资性用途，提高首饰税负，导致国内首 饰店报价高于盘面价格，预计将减少四季度及明年一季度首饰消费。 白银市场连续五年供不应求，加上 ETF 增量，预计今年是连续第七年供 不应求，库存流动性不足支撑银价上涨，基本面强劲，与黄金的金融属 性形成对比。 博巴和铂金均供不应求，但博巴供需紧张有所缓解，铂金更为严重。博 巴主要用于传统汽车，铂金更多应用于新能源汽车，铂金需求多元化， 更具向上弹性。 美国中期选举前，政府可能采取宽松货币和财政政策，包括降息、停止 缩表、减税等，以刺激经济，可能推高黄金价格。 美联储货币政策对黄金价格的影响减弱，地缘政治风险、美国国债问题 和美元信用下降等因素使得黄金定价逻辑多元化，预计 2026 年金价运 行区间可能在 3,900 到 4,800 美元 ...