Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%），新出口订 单指数下跌至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口"虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内 需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3%，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度GDP年化下 降0.3%，不过自3月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4月的非农数据显示美国就业市场 仍然强劲，此背景下5月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对6月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方 面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要对非美国制作影片征收100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担 忧。 重点品种： 原油 、贵金属、铜 原油： 欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油期货继续下跌。八个 参与国将在 2025年6月从2025年5月所需的生产水平开始实施每天41.1万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月 的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟国八国加速减产的决定公布后，国际油价一度下跌近5%。但是中东局势 有恶化的可能，尾盘国际油价缩窄跌幅。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发誓要对伊朗进 ...

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI decreased from 51.6 to 51 in April 2025, indicating a slight reduction in the growth rate of Australia's private sector output, which has been increasing for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of new export orders in Australia's private sector declined again in April, but the overall growth rate of new orders reached its highest level since May 2022 [1] - The average input costs in Australia's private sector grew at the fastest pace since September of the previous year, leading businesses to raise selling prices to the highest level in nine months [2] - The services sector's business activity index fell from 51.6 to 51, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing expansion [2] Group 2: Business Sentiment and Employment - Despite the increase in business activity, the optimism level among private enterprises remains low, falling to a five-month low and below historical averages [1][2] - The services sector experienced a significant increase in new business and backlog of work, with the fastest growth in nearly three years, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming months [2] - Companies are continuing to hire at a steady pace to manage increased workloads, although concerns over trade uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff measures, have dampened business sentiment [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming macro environment for the bond market may be more favorable, potentially breaking the previous price range of sideways movement, with an increased likelihood of long-term government bond yields breaking downward [1][4][33] Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global stock markets performed notably well, with technology stocks leading the gains in both Hong Kong and the US markets, which in turn boosted European and other Asian stock markets [1][11] - The bond market showed divergence, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rising by 23 basis points and 16 basis points respectively, while Japanese bond yields decreased and German bond yields remained stable [1][11] - The US dollar index rebounded, appreciating against major currencies like the yen, euro, and pound, but depreciated against the offshore yuan [1][11] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - In April, the US PCE index grew by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations, while core PCE growth was 2.6%, indicating a further cooling of core inflation [2][12] - The US labor market remains resilient, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 130,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2][16] - The first quarter GDP for 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3%, significantly below the expected -0.2%, marking the lowest growth since Q1 2022 [2][21] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Outlook - The probability of long-term government bond yields breaking downward is expected to increase, as the current tightening of funds is less likely, and any degree of easing would be viewed positively for the bond market [4][29][33] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0% in April, indicating short-term economic pressure, but the long-term positive fundamentals are expected to remain intact despite trade frictions [4][29] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, but the short-term impact on the bond market is expected to be more positive than negative [4][32][33]

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]