Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to weakened cost support, expected increase in supply, lackluster consumption, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the short - term market has no bullish drivers, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. For polysilicon, as the first delivery approaches, the long - short game intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. The short - term supply pressure eases slightly, but downstream demand is sluggish, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7625 yuan/ton and closed at 7440 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton (-3.63%) from the previous settlement. The 2505 main - contract positions were 227,207 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 64,626 lots, a decrease of 287 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon dropped, and the basis strengthened recently. The organic silicon DMC quoted price remained stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline further [1]. Supply and Demand - With the decline in raw material prices such as silicon coal and southwest electricity prices during the wet season, cost support has weakened. The supply side has significant over - capacity, with复产 expectations in the southwest and production restart plans for leading northwest enterprises. The consumer side is average, and the fundamentals are weak [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises should sell and hedge at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 fluctuated. It opened at 34,500 yuan/ton and closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous day. The main - contract positions reached 80,800 lots, and the trading volume was 191,734 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5][6]. Strategy - As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. In the short term, due to lack of demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to operate within a range, and be short - term cautiously bullish on single - side trading [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by overseas trade negotiations and the precious - metal's safe - haven property. Short - term supply disruptions may drive copper prices up, but mid - term economic weakening risks need attention [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventories, but the overall commodity atmosphere and overseas trade situation may cause fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the inter - month spread may widen [3]. - For lead, the decline in scrap battery prices has led to a drop in lead prices. If scrap production cuts deepen, lead prices may fall further [4]. - Zinc has an excess supply expectation. With the increase in zinc ingot inventory, zinc prices face a certain downward risk in the medium term [6]. - Tin's supply is temporarily tight but is expected to ease. Weak demand may cause the tin price center to shift down [8]. - Nickel has high macro - uncertainty. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, the subsequent trend is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices lack a reversal driver. High supply and inventory, along with falling overseas concentrate prices, may lead to a weak operation of lithium prices [11]. - Alumina has an overcapacity situation, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short - sell lightly on rallies [14]. - Stainless steel is in a weak and oscillating pattern due to low terminal demand and cost support from raw materials [16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, the dollar index declined slightly, and copper prices oscillated. The SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, bonded - area inventory continued to decline, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 3.3 million tons [1]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in Shanghai increased to 185 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened to 970 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,700 US dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME was closed, domestic inventory declined, and affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices oscillated. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,170 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 0.8 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and warehouse receipts decreased to 5.5 million tons. Aluminum ingot and rod social inventories continued to decline [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The spot premium in East China increased to 90 yuan/ton. The trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,430 - 2,490 US dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.39% to 16,793 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory and Price**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 3.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 4.01 million tons. The refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.16% to 22,177 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory and Export**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.18 million tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.88 million tons. In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloys reached 1,280.23 tons [6]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ore has an excess expectation, and zinc prices may decline in the medium term [6]. Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin - mine production is slow. From January to April, domestic tin - ore imports decreased by 47.98% year - on - year. The supply of raw materials is tight in the short term [8]. - **Demand**: Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and only rigid - demand purchases are made [8]. - **Inventory and Price**: SMM's three - place inventory increased to 10,333 tons. The trading range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is 30,000 - 35,000 US dollars/ton [8]. Nickel - **Macro and Supply - Demand**: Sino - US tariffs are temporarily eased, but the overall tax rate is still high. Refined nickel production is at a historical high, and stainless - steel market demand is weak [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Philippine laterite nickel - ore prices are stable, Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore prices are difficult to rise, and hydrometallurgical ore prices are stable after a decline [9]. - **Product Prices**: Nickel - iron prices are stable and rising, MHP prices are high in the short term, and nickel - sulfate prices are expected to strengthen. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main - contract price range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M of 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index fell 1.34%, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices declined. The LC2507 contract price fell 1.41% [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply remains high, downstream restocking expectations are not fulfilled, and domestic social inventory is at a historical high [11]. - **Outlook**: Lithium prices may operate weakly, and the trading range for the LC2507 contract is 59,400 - 60,800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina index fell 3.44% to 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 0.6 million hands [13]. - **Inventory and Price**: Spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.66 million tons. The Australian FOB price is stable, and the import profit and loss turned positive [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Short - selling lightly on rallies is recommended, with the domestic main - contract AO2509 trading range of 2,850 - 3,400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The open interest decreased by 14,171 hands [16]. - **Inventory and Price**: Social inventory increased by 0.85%, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw - material prices changed slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [16].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations with stable spot prices, while inventory pressures are manageable [1][2] Raw Materials - The Philippine nickel ore market is beginning June resource procurement, but shipments are hindered by rainfall, resulting in no transactions [1][2] - In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore price remains stable with a slight increase of $0.65-$1, while overall prices have seen a minor uptick due to tight supply during the rainy season [1][2] - Nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure from steel mills, with transaction prices around 965-970 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][2] Supply - According to Mysteel, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in May is 3.4899 million tons, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction in warehouse receipts [1] - As of May 23, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down 30,800 tons week-on-week [1] - On May 26, stainless steel futures inventory is 139,121 tons, a decrease of 17,241 tons week-on-week [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market remains under pressure with high costs, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals after macroeconomic sentiments have stabilized [2] - Demand is slowly recovering, primarily driven by just-in-time inventory replenishment [2] - The overall supply surplus remains unchanged, with some steel mills reducing 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses [2]

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia due to the rainy season affecting shipping, leading to a slight increase in nickel ore prices and stronger cost support [3] - Rising ore prices drive up the cost center of integrated production lines, providing solid support at the lower end [3] Bearish Factors - Loosening marginal supply of pure nickel, combined with high overseas inventories and stable domestic inventories, increasing upward pressure [3] - Slow recovery of downstream stainless steel demand, limited support from the new energy sector, and continuous losses of nickel sulfate enterprises [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Weak supply and demand fundamentals make it difficult for nickel prices to move up or down, maintaining a short - term oscillating pattern. It is recommended to focus on range - band operations and option strategies [3] Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased slightly, with weekly declines ranging from -0.10% to -0.21%. The LME nickel 3M price also dropped by -0.09% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 19.69% to 87,677 lots, and the open interest decreased by 25.3% to 47,440 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.49% to 22,418 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 671.11% to -1,735 yuan/ton [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) showed mixed trends, with some contracts declining by -0.50% to -0.65% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 17.99% to 109,100 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.93% to 117,183 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 140,425 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 12.06% to 790 yuan/ton [4] Spot Nickel - The prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, electrowon nickel) showed minor fluctuations, with changes ranging from -0.04% to 0.04% [4] Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons [4] - **LME Nickel Inventory**: The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 tons to 198,636 tons [6] - **Stainless Steel Social Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons [6] - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [6] Chart Information Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - The report provides charts of the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel (3 - month) futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts over time [8][9] Nickel Supply and Inventory - Charts show the average price of nickel spot, China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB), and China's port nickel ore inventory by port over time [11][12][13] Nickel Iron - Charts present the average price of high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia (Ni≥14%, arrival - tax - included), China's nickel iron monthly production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production over time [16][17][19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Charts display the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors over time [21][23][24] Stainless Steel - Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory over time [26][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

Group 1 - Short-term PTA is expected to show a strong oscillating trend due to cost-driven factors, increased export stocking, and improved terminal demand [1][3] - The recent PX price has risen significantly, with the PX and naphtha price spread (PXN) exceeding $260 per ton, leading to improved profitability for industry players [1] - PTA social inventory decreased to 3.7316 million tons, down by 149,700 tons week-on-week, continuing a downward trend since March [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of downstream polyester is expected to remain around 91% to 92%, with a slight decline in production due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [2][3] - New production capacities from companies like Hong Kong Petrochemical and Helen Petrochemical are expected to be launched between June and August, potentially leading to inventory accumulation in July [2] - The overall supply-demand structure for PTA remains favorable, supported by strong cost support and continued foreign purchasing [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the cost support is weakening, the supply side has复产 expectations, the consumption side is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - For polysilicon, the consumption side shows signs of weakening, the supply side has news of joint production cuts but it is difficult to achieve in the short term, and there is still some game in the market [8][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating at a low level. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,840 yuan/ton and closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.19)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,690 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 23, 2025, was 65,298 lots, a change of -355 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - The spot price of industrial silicon has declined. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,500 - 8,800 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon is 9,300 - 9,700 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon is 8,000 - 8,100 (-50) yuan/ton. Since May, the price of electrode raw materials has been declining, with a decrease of about 700 - 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. Consumption Side - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC is 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. The average price this week remained stable compared to last week. The domestic DMC market's trading center has moved up slightly, and the downstream enterprises'开工 rate has increased. The monomer enterprises' DMC shipments have improved compared to last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 22, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures rebounded, opening at 35,600 yuan/ton and closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.14% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 77,294 (73,488 the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 126,262 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon weekly output was 21,500.00 tons, a change of 0.40% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.30GW, a change of 7.10% month - on - month [5][12][13]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term futures price is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation, mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [9][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Weak [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Low - long [1] - PTA: Low - long [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low - long [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Short on rebounds [1] - Urea: Cautious low - long [1] - Asphalt: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products. For crude oil, OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, leading to weaker prices. For products like LPG, L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash, their fundamentals are weak, showing downward trends. PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have improving fundamentals and present low - long opportunities. Methanol is suitable for shorting on rebounds, and urea can be considered for cautious low - long positions. Asphalt shows a sideways trend [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: Overnight, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.60%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.22% [2] - **基本逻辑**: The main drivers are the approaching summer consumption peak and OPEC+ entering the production - increasing stage. Supply - related events include the expiration of Chevron's operating license and Saudi's production and export changes. Demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted. Inventory data shows changes in various types of oil inventories in the US [3] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, with prices fluctuating between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is weak with support, and SC is in the range of [445 - 465] [4] 3.2 LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 22, the PG main contract closed at 4150 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6] - **基本逻辑**: The cost - end oil price is consolidating, and LPG's fundamentals are bearish. Factors include increasing commodity volume, factory inventory, and a sharp rise in warehouse receipts [7] - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to OPEC+ production increase and tariff impacts. Technically, it is weak, and short positions can be partially closed. PG is in the range of [4110 - 4140] [8] 3.3 L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - **基本逻辑**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited price support. Next week, production is expected to increase, and the market may be weak with a fluctuation range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short opportunities [11] 3.4 PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton day - on - day [13] - **基本逻辑**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve significantly, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, focusing on cost and supply changes [14] - **策略推荐**: Short on rebounds [14] 3.5 PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - **基本逻辑**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is expected to increase, demand is low, and cost support is weak. The price is expected to be in the range of 4650 - 4850 yuan/ton [16] - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term [16] 3.6 PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PX spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 yuan/ton [17] - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The PXN spread is improved but still low, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side may weaken due to PTA device maintenance [18] - **策略推荐**: PX is in the range of [6610, 6730] [19] 3.7 PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 yuan/ton [20] - **基本逻辑**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [21] - **策略推荐**: Look for low - long opportunities [21] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the MEG spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 yuan/ton [22] - **基本逻辑**: Device maintenance and low arrival volume relieve supply pressure. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improved terminal weaving. Inventory is decreasing [23] - **策略推荐**: EG is in the range of [4400, 4480] [24] 3.9 Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market price decreased, the futures closed down, the basis widened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [25] - **基本逻辑**: Macroeconomic factors reduce market risk appetite. The glass demand is weak in the medium - term. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the inventory is concentrated upstream and mid - stream [26] - **策略推荐**: None provided 3.10 Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The heavy - soda spot price decreased, the futures fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated slightly, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28] - **基本逻辑**: The supply reduction due to maintenance provides some support, but new capacity release may lead to oversupply. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [29] - **策略推荐**: SA is in the range of [1260, 1290] [29] 3.11 Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the methanol spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2284 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 yuan/ton [30] - **基本逻辑**: The supply side has high pressure with high - load device operation and increasing arrival volume. The demand side improves slightly with MTO device load stabilizing. The cost support is weak [31] - **策略推荐**: MA is in the range of [2235, 2265] [31]