Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Report Core View - Rapeseed oil is greatly affected by news related to China-Canada relations. The Canadian Prime Minister's statement has intensified market bearish sentiment, and rapeseed oil futures led the decline in the entire oil market. It is recommended to underweight. In the long term, the situation of far-month ship purchases still needs to be observed [7] - The market expects that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of May will increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year. The significant increase in inventory restrains the upward movement of the futures price, but strong exports support the price, and it continues to trade in a range [7] - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continues to put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean imports and crushing situation. An improvement in the supply situation may bring pressure to soybean oils [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple-pressed rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), first-pressed rapeseed oil 09+250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first-grade soybean oil: 09+280 in early June, 09+260 from June to July; 09+270 from June to September, 01+330 from October to January. East China 24-degree palm oil: P09+450 yuan/ton [7] - Rapeseed oil was affected by China-Canada relations, with futures leading the decline in the oil market. It is recommended to underweight, and long-term attention should be paid to far-month ship purchases. The expected significant increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory in late May restrains price increases, but strong exports support prices, maintaining a range-bound trend. The abundant soybean supply in Brazil exerts pressure, and attention should be paid to imports and crushing [7] 2. Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, an increase of 62,700 tons from the previous month [8] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8] - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil in different regions, as well as price spreads and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

化工日报 | 2025-06-04 青岛港口库存小幅下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13450元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨。NR主力合约11810元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13400元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13500元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1670美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1610美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11200元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，1-4月，越南出口混合橡胶合计28.2万吨，较去年的27万吨同比增加4.4%。 其中，SVR3L混合出口6.1万吨，同比增33%；SVR10混合出口21.8万吨，同比降2%；RSS3混合出口0.33万吨，同 比降6%。 针对于2025年"端午节"假期轮胎企业检修计划情况，隆众资讯对部分样本企业进行了调研，由于5月初部分企业已 经在"劳动节"假期 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.13%至 77650 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 1.12%至 19860 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the evaluated energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is affected by macro - sentiment changes, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff event, and the expectation of OPEC+ production increase. It is expected to oscillate until the OPEC+ meeting results are out. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the oil price amplitude is expected to be large [1]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as arbitrage cargo inflows. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the absolute prices of FU and LU [2]. - The asphalt market has limited short - term supply pressure but high profit - driven production potential. The approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, leading to limited upward space and potential inventory accumulation [4]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as crude oil price changes, PTA and EG device restarts and overhauls, and polyester production cuts. It is expected to oscillate in the short term following the cost side [4]. - The rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the sales of automobiles and tires face pressure, resulting in a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - The methanol market has reduced domestic supply due to device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The polyolefin market has many upstream overhauls and downstream rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The PVC market has a short - term release of fundamental pressure due to overhauls, but with device restarts, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI July contract closed down $0.9 to $60.94/barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent July contract closed down $0.75 to $64.15/barrel, a 1.16% decline; SC2507 closed at 452.5 yuan/barrel, down 9.1 yuan/barrel, a 1.97% decline. The Trump tariff event is still uncertain, and EIA inventory data shows a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic oil reserve inventory. The market is worried about the OPEC+ production increase on Saturday, and the price oscillates. During the holiday, the amplitude may be large [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2507 rose 2.42% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2507 rose 2.09% to 3558 yuan/ton. Singapore fuel oil inventory has different changes. The low - sulfur spot premium is strengthening, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the price [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2507 rose 0.51% to 3514 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The short - term supply pressure is limited, but the approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, and the price may weaken [4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 3.04% to 4814 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 1.11% to 4359 yuan/ton, and PX futures main contract 509 rose 3% to 6788 yuan/ton. There are restarts and overhauls of PTA and EG devices, and the polyester production load is expected to be reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2509 rose 75 yuan/ton to 13880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 335 yuan/ton to 12580 yuan/ton. The tire enterprise start - up loads have different changes, and the rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased due to domestic device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream has many overhauls, and the downstream has rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market price is weakly adjusted. The supply is expected to increase as overhaul devices resume and new overhauls are limited. The demand is relatively stable due to the stable real - estate construction. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of multiple energy - chemical products on May 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Court of Appeals temporarily stopped the court's decision on Trump's tariffs, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect for the time being. The Trump administration expected the court's ruling to be in its favor [11]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all declined. The commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 28 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels, contrary to the market's expected increase of 1.18 million barrels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, EG, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][31][35] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][65] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [70][73]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil in Malaysia aims to use B30 bio - fuel in the transport sector by 2030, with a short - term expectation of further oscillatory rebound. In China, Dalian palm oil futures rose sharply due to the increase in Malaysian palm oil, and may further strengthen and test the 8200 resistance. - For US soybean oil, the fundamental situation hasn't changed much. The recent rebound of CBOT soybean oil is mainly driven by the rise in NYMEX crude oil, but the trade frictions between the US and other countries limit its increase. In China, the spot price fluctuates narrowly, the basis quote is mainly stable with a slight decline in some areas. The factory operating rate is expected to rise, and the market is in a traditional demand off - season, which may lead to a decline in the basis quote [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - US soybean spring sowing is progressing smoothly with a fast overall sowing progress, and there is limited room for dry - weather speculation. Brazil's supply pressure is still being realized, and China has suspended importing soybeans from the US. The domestic soybean arrival in the later period is abundant, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. However, the current low inventory of soybean meal in oil mills and the low basis level suggest that the basis is expected to stabilize. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and there may be a short - term callback risk for soybean meal after rising above 2950 yuan/ton [2]. 2.3 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains a slight oscillation. The pig slaughter volume increases, the weight declines steadily, the secondary fattening is rolling out, and the replenishment willingness is limited. The improvement of the supply - demand situation is limited. There is some pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand, which supports the pig price, but the supply is abundant, so it's difficult for the price to rise. The current breeding profit exists, but the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the price has no basis for a sharp decline or strong upward drive. Attention should be paid to the support around 13500 on the futures market [5]. 2.4 Corn Industry - The remaining grain in the grassroots has been basically sold out. The market supply and price change with the grain - selling rhythm of traders. Traders are optimistic about the future market and hold back from selling. The price rebounds locally and remains stable overall with strong bottom support. The downstream deep - processing industry has continuous losses and reduces the operating rate, and the inventory declines slightly. The breeding end mainly replenishes inventory as a rigid demand, but the small price difference between corn and wheat and the concentrated listing of wheat limit the increase of corn price. In the long - term, the tightening supply, weakened import and substitution, and increasing breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn price. In the short - term, the market pays more attention to the wheat market, and the overall trading of corn is light with no strong unilateral driving force, maintaining an interval oscillation [7]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - Global weather is favorable for sugar production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil speeds up the harvest, and the wet weather in India and Thailand benefits the growth of sugarcane crops. The 25/26 supply outlook is optimistic, and the raw sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Considering that a large amount of raw sugar hasn't entered the domestic market, it still supports the sugar price. The market focus is on the future import rhythm. The domestic supply - demand situation is generally loose, and the increasing long - term supply is the strongest inhibitory factor. The sugar price is expected to maintain an oscillatory weak trend [10]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry has rigid demand resilience. The current downstream operating rate hasn't decreased significantly, the finished product inventory is not high, and the spot basis of raw - material cotton is firm, providing strong support for the cotton price. However, the long - term demand expectation is not strong, and there is no strong driving force for the price to rise. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval [11]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a certain negative impact on the egg price. The demand may first decrease and then increase, which is the main factor affecting the egg price fluctuation. The national egg price is expected to first decline and then rise this week with a small adjustment range [13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 8100 yuan, the futures price (Y2509) drops from 7492 to 7478 yuan (-0.19%), the basis (Y2509) increases by 14 yuan (2.30%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 65 to 17152 (-0.38%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rises from 8600 to 8700 yuan (1.16%), the futures price (P2509) increases from 8000 to 8082 yuan (1.03%), the basis (P2509) rises by 18 yuan (3.00%), the盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port for September increases by 64 yuan (0.74%), and the盘面 import profit increases by 18 yuan (2.81%). - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remains unchanged at 9600 yuan, the futures price (O1509) drops from 9073 to 9070 yuan (-0.03%), the basis (O1509) increases by 3 yuan (0.57%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 412 [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - period spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil increases from 18 to 30 yuan (66.67%), the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil increases from 16 to 30 yuan (87.50%), and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreases from 169 to 167 yuan (-1.18%). - **Cross - variety spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread decreases, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changes slightly [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Price and Basis Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2940 to 2930 yuan (-0.34%), the futures price (M2509) rises from 2961 to 2962 yuan (0.03%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 110 to 26899 (-0.4%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu drops from 2530 to 2520 yuan (-0.40%), the futures price (RM2509) rises from 2604 to 2618 yuan (0.54%), the basis decreases, and the warehouse receipt decreases by 394 to 27615 (-1.41%) [2]. 3.2.2 Import and Spread Information - The盘面 import profit of Brazilian soybeans for July shipment increases by 13 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes [2]. 3.3 Pig Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures: The main contract price drops from 970 to 890 yuan/ton (-8.25%), the price of live - hog 2507 drops from 13260 to 13215 yuan (-0.34%), the price of live - hog 2509 rises from 13560 to 13640 yuan (0.59%), and the 7 - 9 spread increases from 300 to 425 yuan (41.67%). The main contract position increases by 1488 to 79448 (1.91%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 450. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions remain unchanged, the sample - point slaughter volume increases by 4051 to 155211 (2.68%), the weekly white - strip price drops from 20.71 to 20.60 yuan (-0.53%), the weekly piglet price remains unchanged at 28.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remains unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight drops from 129.38 to 129.18 kg (-0.15%), the weekly self - breeding profit drops from 81 to 48 yuan/head (-40.23%), the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit drops from 48 to - 16 yuan/head (-133.32%), and the monthly fertile sow inventory drops from 4039 to 4038 million heads (-0.02%) [5]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Corn - The price of corn 2507 rises from 2325 to 2332 yuan (0.30%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remains unchanged at 2320 yuan, the basis drops from - 5 to - 12 yuan (-140.00%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 24 to - 20 yuan (16.67%), the Shekou bulk - grain price drops from 2410 to 2400 yuan (-0.41%), the north - south trade profit drops from 14 to 4 yuan (-71.43%), the CIF price drops from 2063 to 2056 yuan (-0.37%), the import profit drops from 347 to 344 yuan (-0.71%), the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning drops from 747 to 626 (-16.20%), the position drops from 2025642 to 2010114 (-0.77%), and the warehouse receipt drops from 217099 to 216419 (-0.31%) [7]. 3.4.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2507 rises from 2663 to 2676 yuan (0.49%), the Changchun spot price and the Weifang spot price remain unchanged. The basis drops from 27 to 14 yuan (-48.15%), the 7 - 9 spread increases from - 60 to - 58 yuan (3.33%), the starch - corn futures spread increases from 338 to 344 yuan (1.78%), the Shandong starch profit rises from - 157 to - 151 yuan (3.82%), the position drops from 324840 to 320150 (-1.44%), and the warehouse receipt remains unchanged at 25252 [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 drops from 5674 to 5660 yuan (-0.25%), the price of sugar 2509 drops from 5795 to 5783 yuan (-0.21%), the ICE raw - sugar main contract price drops from 17.25 to 16.91 cents/pound (-1.97%), the 1 - 9 spread drops from - 121 to - 123 yuan (-1.65%). The main contract position increases by 415 to 308960 (0.13%), and the warehouse receipt decreases by 100 to 31481 (-0.32%). - Spot: The Nanning and Kunming spot prices remain unchanged. The Nanning basis increases by 12 yuan (3.33%), the Kunming basis increases by 12 yuan (7.27%). The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) drops from 4696 to 4680 yuan (-0.34%), and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) drops from 5974 to 5952 yuan (-0.37%) [10]. 3.5.2 Industry Situation - The national sugar production and sales increase, the industrial inventory decreases, and the sugar import increases significantly [10]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 drops from 13330 to 13320 yuan (-0.08%), the price of cotton 2601 rises from 13375 to 13390 yuan (0.11%), the ICE US cotton main contract price drops from 65.33 to 65.03 cents/pound (-0.46%), the 9 - 1 spread drops from - 45 to - 70 yuan (-55.56%). The main contract position decreases by 10069 to 552461 (-1.79%), the warehouse receipt decreases by 52 to 11157 (-0.46%), and the effective forecast increases by 29 to 380 (8.26%). - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B rise slightly, the FC Index:M: 1% drops slightly, and the relevant spreads change [11]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national inventory, industrial inventory, and import volume of cotton decrease, the bonded - area inventory decreases, the textile industry inventory increases year - on - year, the yarn and fabric inventory days increase, the cotton outbound shipment volume increases, the spinning enterprise's immediate processing profit drops, and the clothing and textile retail and export data change [11]. 3.7 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 09 contract rises from 3722 to 3750 yuan/500KG (0.75%), the price of the egg 06 contract rises from 2662 to 2689 yuan/500KG (1.01%), the egg - producing area price remains unchanged at 3.05 yuan/jin, the basis drops from 170 to 134 yuan/500KG (-20.99%), the 9 - 6 spread rises from 1061 to 1060 yuan (0.09%). The egg - chicken chick price remains unchanged, the culled - chicken price drops from 5.22 to 5.12 yuan/jin (-1.92%), the egg - feed ratio rises from 2.51 to 2.53 (0.80%), and the breeding profit rises from - 17.22 to - 15.96 yuan/feather (7.32%) [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，关税博弈成为近期最重要影响因素，短期关税缓和提 振市场情绪，中长期来看最终谈判结果仍存不确定性。原油和煤炭价格均偏弱，成本端支撑减弱。 供需端，农膜淡季，中小工厂停车多，新产能投产压力仍存。当前LL交割品现货价7100（-0）， 基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差128，升贴水比例1.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.4万吨（-0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位 ...