1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Israel - Iran situation and tariff policies, and the market will face a super - week of central banks including the Fed, which may increase market volatility. Silver prices were supported by the Israel - Iran conflict boosting oil prices, but it's difficult to rise significantly again after the previous sharp increase [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the downward risk of the US economy, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metals Prices**: On June 16, 2025, London gold spot was at $3415.20/ounce, London silver spot at $36.38/ounce, COMEX gold at $3434.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $36.48/ounce, AU2508 at 792.30 yuan/gram, AG2508 at 8858 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 788.66 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 8831 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, gold prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while silver prices rose, with increases of 0.8% for London silver spot, COMEX silver, and AG2508, and 0.6% for AG (T + D) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On June 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 27 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 0.41 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 583 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 89.44, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 94.16, AU2512 - 2508 was 3.74 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2508 was 31 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, the price spreads and ratios showed various changes, with the largest increase of 58.8% in the silver TD - SHFE active price spread and the largest decrease of 86.5% in the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 940.49 tons, up 0.28% from June 12; the silver ETF - SLV was 14675.3622 tons, down 0.36%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 245995 contracts, down 0.40%; the non - commercial short positions were 58514 contracts, down 0.95%; the non - commercial net long positions were 187481 contracts, down 0.23%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 85192 contracts, up 3.92%; the non - commercial short positions were 18542 contracts, down 12.58%; the non - commercial net long positions were 66650 contracts, up 9.68% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On June 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18177 kg, unchanged from June 13; the SHFE silver inventory was 1194931 kg, down 1.25%. As of June 13, the COMEX gold inventory was 37789752 ounces, unchanged from June 12; the COMEX silver inventory was 498460011 ounces, up 0.05% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Markets - On June 16, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.18, the US dollar index was 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96, the VIX was 4.41, the S&P 500 was 5976.97, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 73.18, and NYMEX crude oil was not clearly stated. Compared with June 13, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.02%, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.54%, the VIX rose 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and NYMEX crude oil rose 6.27% [4]. 3.5 Important News - Geopolitical: The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. The Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel is willing to stop the action if Iran accepts the US demand to abandon the nuclear program. Trump and the US are not currently involved in Israel's military strike against Iran but may be involved in the future [4]. - Economic Data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in June was 60.5, the first improvement in 6 months. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation was 5.1%, and the preliminary value of the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 4.1% [4].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

美联社称，特朗普15日晚戴着"让美国再次伟大"的帽子抵达加拿大，这是他重返白宫后首次参加大型国际峰会。报道称，特朗普上次访问加拿大是2018年参 加G7峰会，这次会议给世界留下的印象是一张照片：特朗普双臂交叉、以挑衅姿态坐着，时任德国总理默克尔双手按着桌子，狠狠盯着特朗普，其他国家 领导人围绕默克尔站成一圈。在离开加拿大前，特朗普在社交平台发文，谴责时任加拿大总理特鲁多"非常不诚实和软弱"，并指示美国代表团撤回对会议联 合公报的认可。而今年，美国总统特朗普仍然是G7峰会上"难以预料的一张牌"。《纽约时报》称，特朗普在2018 年气冲冲地离开了G7峰会，今年，美国与 盟友的裂痕更加严重：特朗普发动了一场规模更大的贸易战，并威胁要吞并峰会的主办国加拿大。 为了避免冲突，卡尼已放弃发表会议联合公报，并为此次峰会设置了一些"温和的"议程，包括防范山火、构建关键矿产供应链以及创造就业机会等。英国广 播公司（BBC）称，这是卡尼作为加拿大总理主持的第一次重大国际会议，但他精心策划的议程已经被以色列和伊朗的冲突打乱。伊朗问题突然跃升到议程 的首位，但G7在这个问题上也很难达成一致。外交官们表示，加拿大目前正在试探各国，争取 ...

Group 1 - The Forbes Global 2000 list for 2025 features 2000 companies with a total revenue of $52.9 trillion, profit of $4.9 trillion, assets of $242.2 trillion, and market capitalization of $91.3 trillion, marking a record high across all metrics [2][4] - Over the past 20 years, the profits, market value, and assets of G2000 companies have more than doubled, with total sales increasing by 140%, highlighting the impact of globalization on economic growth [2][4] - The top three companies by revenue in 2025 are Walmart, Amazon, and Saudi Aramco, while the highest net profit companies are Alphabet, Saudi Aramco, and Apple [4][5] Group 2 - The United States plays a crucial role in this growth, with the S&P 500 index increasing fivefold over the past two decades, despite concerns about trade wars potentially hindering growth [5][6] - The average market cap growth for the top 100 U.S. companies is 10.5%, lagging behind non-U.S. companies by 3 percentage points [6][8] - The number of U.S. companies on the list is 612, followed by China with 358, and Germany with 49, indicating the U.S.'s dominant position [8][11] Group 3 - The financial sector dominates the Global 2000 list, comprising 328 banks, 134 diversified financial groups, and 117 insurance companies [11][13] - Nvidia has made a significant leap into the top 100, ranking 47th, while companies like Disney and Pfizer have returned to the top 100 after previous declines [13][14] - BP and Intel have faced significant declines in their rankings due to falling profits and substantial losses, respectively [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and potential trade wars are causing significant volatility in the stock market, particularly affecting high-valuation tech giants, which are seen as vulnerable to renewed trade conflicts and economic impacts from tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Following President Trump's tariff announcement, U.S. and global stock markets experienced a sharp decline, but tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," led a strong rebound [1][4]. - The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, has shown increased hedging costs, indicating heightened market concern over potential declines in tech stocks as the 90-day tariff "grace period" approaches its end [1][4]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 31% since the delay of aggressive tariffs, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which only increased by 20% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Investors are worried that renewed trade tensions could negatively impact the growth expectations for the U.S. economy, leading to a repeat of the tech giants' significant declines seen earlier in April [3][5]. - The rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points since the escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran, reflects ongoing inflation concerns and expectations of expanding U.S. budget deficits [4][6]. - The demand for protective options has surged, indicating a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the recent market rally, as investors are increasingly anxious about preserving their gains [8]. Group 3: AI Sector and Long-term Prospects - Despite concerns over trade policies, the AI computing demand remains robust, with companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom expected to continue benefiting from long-term investment returns in AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The expansion of AI-related software and infrastructure investments is leading to significant stock price increases for companies in this sector, with Nvidia's stock rising over 50% since late April [6][7]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and others, are driving the long-term bull market in U.S. stocks, supported by strong fundamentals and cash flow, despite their high valuation metrics [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the freight index (European line) futures prices declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 dropped 4.04%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 5%. The negative impact of tariff hikes persists. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index rose to 1697.63, up 4.6% week - on - week. With the trade war uncertainty, the demand outlook for the freight index (European line) has cooled, and the futures prices are volatile. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive a short - term rebound in futures prices. Investors are advised to be cautious, control risks, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: - 85.5; EC second - main contract closing price: 2030.000, EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 615.30, EC2508 - EC2510 spread: 418.80, EC contract basis: + 112.82, EC main contract open interest: - 1186, with 43658 lots [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1697.63, up 74.82; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 2908.68, up 723.60; SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 2088.24, down 152.11; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1243.05, up 88.07; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1488.87, up 91.85; Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1968.00, down 64.00; Panamax freight index (daily): 1401.00, down 26.00; average charter price (Panamax ship): 11285.00, up 268.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 28682.00, up 2532.00 [1]. Industry News - Geopolitical: Iran and Israel launched a new round of military strikes on June 15, causing casualties and fires [1]. - Trade: At the WTO's service trade council meeting on June 13, China criticized the US "reciprocal tariff" narrative and urged compliance with WTO rules [1]. - Accident: A plane crash in India's Gujarat state has killed 279 people, and the government will release an investigation report in 3 months [1]. Key Data to Watch - June 17, 17:00: Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index; Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index - June 17, 20:30: US May retail sales month - on - month rate; US May import price index month - on - month rate - June 17, 21:15: US May industrial production month - on - month rate [1]

特朗普政府当初那叫一个得意，以为用芯片解禁、留学生签证放宽、台湾问题妥协三张牌，就能换来稀土敞开供应。可中国商务部压根没按套路出牌，表面 上放行了民用稀土，实际上把监管网织得密不透风。就像中国美国商会会长何迈可私下吐槽的："审批流程确实在动，但新规让每吨稀土都像装了追踪器， 这哪是做生意，简直是谍战现场。" 美国人总爱说"自由贸易"，可轮到自家芯片就翻脸不认人。这边财长贝森特刚放话"英伟达H100芯片永远别想进中国"，转头又催着中国开稀土闸门，双标玩 得这么溜，真当稀土是爱情买卖，招招手就能送货上门？ 说句大实话，美国军工巨头们早该醒醒了。F-35战斗机发动机缺了钐磁体，跟雄鹰折了翅膀有啥区别？波音公司生产线要是断供稀土，怕不是要改行生产扫 帚？可白宫那帮政客倒好，一边卡着中国芯片脖子，一边嚷嚷着要稀土敞开供应。这算盘珠子都快崩到太平洋对岸了！ 所以此前美国企业的稀土库存一告急，特朗普就立马坐不住了！在多次请求中方谈判后，终于在几天前与中国在伦敦达成了贸易框架。 STERNET THE COMMENT CONSEE OF ALL 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 ...

Core Insights - The linkage between the Korean won and the Chinese yuan is becoming increasingly tight, with fluctuations in the yuan likely to impact the won, especially during periods of global uncertainty caused by trade wars [1][2] - Since 2018, the correlation between the won and yuan has averaged around 0.6, with notable periods of increased correlation during the U.S.-China trade tensions and the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - The sensitivity of the won to the yuan may increase if former President Trump implements stricter trade protection policies during a potential second term, complicating Korea's monetary policy and foreign exchange risk management [1] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The research indicates an asymmetric relationship in the exchange rate linkage, where the correlation strengthens during periods of won depreciation and weakens during won appreciation [2] - Factors contributing to this imbalance include joint depreciation against the U.S. dollar and competition in export markets between China and South Korea [2] - On the day of the report, the won appreciated over 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the offshore yuan saw a slight increase of 0.15% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been liberalized, and the manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis is bullish with the spot price at 78,715 and a basis of 705, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - Copper inventories are neutral, with a decrease of 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons on June 13, and a decrease of 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons at the SHFE compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is neutral as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - The main positions are bearish as the main net position is short and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the increasing uncertainty of US trade tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trend, and main positions is a mix of neutral, bullish, and bearish factors, leading to an expected fluctuating price trend [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Spot - Information on spot includes the location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details such as type, total quantity, and increase or decrease, but specific numerical values are not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventories at the SHFE decreased by 5,461 tons to 101,943 tons compared to last week, and on June 13, the overall copper inventory decreased by 2,375 tons to 114,475 tons [2]. 保税区Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...