Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].

Investment Insights - The bond market experienced a slight decline last week, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) down by 0.08% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) down by 0.11% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates increased significantly, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields rising by 3.42 basis points, 3.26 basis points, 3.44 basis points, and 2.09 basis points respectively [12] - Credit bond yields mostly increased, leading to an overall compression of credit spreads [12] Market Observations - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan, tightening the liquidity marginally [13] - New tariff negotiations have raised U.S. Treasury yields, with concerns about inflation impacting market sentiment [14] - The REITs secondary market saw a significant correction, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index dropping by 1.12% [15] Public Fund Market Dynamics - Penghua Fund announced the transformation of its Penghua Qianhai Vanke REIT into an open-end bond fund after its ten-year closed operation period ended [16] - This REIT was the first publicly offered REIT product in China, providing critical practical experience for the development of the C-REITS market [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.01% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.03% since inception [3][19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index fell by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 6.56% since inception [4][19] - REITs fund index decreased by 2.28%, but has a cumulative return of 37.20% since inception [10][19]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：汪浩、梁中华 ·概 要 · 特朗普关税博弈再起，扰动全球资产价格，本周全球大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全球股市分化，新兴市场优于发达市场。美国经济依然具有韧性，特朗普 不断督促鲍威尔降息，但是新一轮关税对通胀的压力下，美联储降息仍有掣肘，同时关税冲击经济，欧央行保留进一步降息稳经济的选项，日本央行加息 可能延迟至2026年。 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.7.4-2025.7.11），全球大类资产价格中，大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全球股市分化。上证综指上涨1.09%，恒生指数上涨 0.93%，新兴市场股票指数上涨0.45%，发达市场股票指数下跌0.13%，标普500下跌0.31%，日经225下跌0.61%。 大宗商品价格基本都上涨，其中， COMEX铜上涨10.30%，IPE布油期货上涨3.09%，南华商品指数上涨1.01%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨0.87%，伦敦金现上涨0.53%。债市方面，国内10Y国 债期货价格下跌0.25%，中债总全价指数下跌0.19%，10年期美债收益率较前一周上升8BP至4.43%，10年期美债期货持平前一周。外汇市场方面，美元指 数较前一周 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual metal outlooks are as follows: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [6] - Alumina: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [7] - Aluminum: Expected to be "震荡偏强" (sideways with a slight upward bias) in the short - term and cautious about long - term consumption [10] - Aluminum alloy: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term and have upward potential in the medium - term [11] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) [15] - Lead: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [16] - Nickel: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (sideways with a slight downward bias) in the medium - to - long - term, and strengthen in the short - term [21] - Stainless steel: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to be in a "震荡" (sideways) pattern [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows a game between US reciprocal tariff measures and domestic policy stimulus expectations, leading to repeated macro - expectations and continued volatility in the non - ferrous metals market. - From a supply - demand perspective, the supply - demand of base metals is seasonally loosening, with domestic inventory destocking slowing down and some varieties starting to accumulate inventory slightly. - In the short - to - medium - term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and low - buying short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin can be cautiously considered. - In the long - term, the demand prospects of base metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to sell short at high prices for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: US tariffs on copper may be implemented, pressuring the price of Shanghai copper. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the US Commerce Secretary said the new tariff might be implemented at the end of July or on August 1st. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. As of July 10th, copper inventory increased. - **Logic**: Macro factors put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper ore processing fees are falling, raw material supply is tight, and overseas smelters are reducing production. Demand is weakening in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Arbitrage space has opened, but sentiment is stronger, and alumina prices continue to rise. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in various regions have increased. Guinea has introduced reform measures for the mining industry, including creating the Guinea Bauxite Index and exercising sales and transportation rights. Alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged on July 8th, and Xinjiang's alumina shipments will be affected in the short term. - **Logic**: In the short - to - medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and production capacity and inventory are increasing, but warehouse receipts are still low. The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment drives prices up. In the long - term, Guinea's policies may affect ore prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are oscillating with a slight upward bias. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and inventory in the main consumption areas decreased. Aluminum rod inventory increased. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased. The "Big and Beautiful" bill was approved, and Trump announced tariffs on imports from 14 countries. - **Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline is postponed, and domestic anti - cut - throat competition expectations drive up sentiment. Aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is uncertain, and downstream demand may be under pressure in the second half of the year [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Demand has entered the off - season, and aluminum alloy prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum widened. Thailand plans to levy a carbon tax. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, supporting costs. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the medium - term, demand may recover seasonally [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of ferrous metal prices boosts galvanizing demand, and zinc prices are strong in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of July 10th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production. - **Logic**: Macro factors boost galvanizing demand. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. However, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, supply may exceed demand, and prices may fall [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained stable. Lead ingot inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead futures warehouse receipts increased slightly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the premium is stable. On the supply side, the cost of recycled lead is stable, and production is increasing slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The real - estate market has become a hot topic again, and nickel prices are strengthening in the short - term. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. There have been many investment and production - start events in the nickel industry in Indonesia, Canada, and Brazil. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of raw materials may increase, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected that nickel prices will be weak in the medium - to - long - term and strengthen in the short - term [20]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Sentiment supports the upward movement of the stainless - steel futures market. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening. Stainless - steel production decreased in June, and social inventory decreased last week. - **Logic**: Cost support is weakening, and demand may weaken after the peak season. It is necessary to pay attention to the scale of production cuts by steel mills and inventory changes. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate in the short - term [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On July 10th, LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots remained unchanged. - **Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and Indonesia's refined tin exports are restricted, supporting prices. However, the impact may be limited, and terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of the monitored varieties (copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin), but no specific monitoring content is provided.

Group 1: Market Overview - The first half of 2025 saw a mixed performance in the fund market, with equity funds performing well while bond fund sizes declined [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a mild recovery with structural contradictions, where production outpaces consumption and deflationary pressures persist [3][4] - The industrial value-added in May 2025 grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 6.4%, driven by policies encouraging consumption [3][4] Group 2: Fund Performance - Over 80% of the 12,897 public funds saw net value growth in the first half of 2025, with several funds achieving growth rates exceeding 80% [5] - The number of newly established funds reached 672, raising a total of 540.85 billion yuan, although the issuance scale decreased by nearly 20% compared to the previous year [5] Group 3: Equity Funds - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced overall gains, with the North Star 50 Index rising by 39.45% in the first half of 2025 [6] - The launch of ETF funds significantly contributed to the growth of stock funds, with 387 new stock funds established, marking a 183% increase in issuance compared to the previous year [7] Group 4: Sector Performance - The top 10 performing public funds were all actively managed equity funds, with seven being focused on the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting its strong performance [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 26.1% increase in the A-share innovative drug concept, driven by domestic consumption policies and accelerated domestic substitution [9] Group 5: AI Sector - The AI sector experienced volatility, with the leading AI fund showing a -20.57% return, attributed to a mismatch between investment strategy and market trends [10] - Despite the struggles of some AI funds, the technology sector remains strong, with the DeepSeek index rising by 42.51% in the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6: Fixed Income Funds - The bond fund market saw a significant recovery in June 2025, with the number of newly established bond funds reaching a record high for the year [11] - Credit bonds attracted increased investment, with net subscriptions for credit bond ETFs exceeding 800 billion yuan in the past month [12] Group 7: Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 suggests a focus on high-return assets and sectors with long-term growth potential, such as agriculture, transportation, and technology [15]

Group 1: Report Title and Team - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Bottom Support is Loosening [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel price range forecast: 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategy: When product sales price drops, short Shanghai Nickel futures (60% ratio, strategy level 2) and sell call options (50% ratio, strategy level 2) [2] - Procurement management strategy: When worried about raw material price rise, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts and sell put options according to production plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel shows weak and volatile intraday trend, affected by the non - ferrous market. Nickel ore price may decline due to increased Philippine shipments, but the decline space is limited. Nickel iron price stabilizes, close to the conversion spread of high - ice nickel. Pay attention to anti - dumping tax and major factory production cuts for stainless steel, and macro - tariff and non - ferrous market trends [3] Group 4:利多/利空解读 - Bullish factors: Congo cobalt mine ban continues, Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, Indonesia shortens nickel ore quota license period from three to one year [4] - Bearish factors: Stainless steel enters traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, nickel - iron industry chain contradiction deepens with surplus situation unchanged, and pure nickel inventory is high [4] Group 5: Daily Market Data Nickel - Latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract: 119,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts show declines. LME Nickel 3M at 15,015 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. Volume 111,063 lots, open interest 72,919 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.75% [6] Stainless steel - Latest price of stainless steel main contract: 12,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; continuous contracts show increases. Volume 98,636 lots, open interest 87,766 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.11% [7] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 38,029 tons, up 186 tons; LME nickel inventory: 203,562 tons, up 942 tons; stainless steel social inventory: 978 tons, down 14.1 tons; nickel pig iron inventory: 37,534 tons, up 2,924 tons [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and a strong US dollar index, which is at a two-week high [1][3] - Concerns over trade tariffs have not effectively boosted safe-haven buying for gold, despite the announcement of increased tariffs by Trump starting August 1 [3] - The recent strong non-farm payroll data from the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in short-term rate cut expectations, further impacting gold prices negatively [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are currently in a downtrend, with key resistance levels identified at 3311 and 3328, while support levels are noted between 3275 and 3250 [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3320 area closely, as prices below this level indicate a bearish outlook in the short term [4] - The analysis suggests that gold is experiencing a phase of oscillating declines, with a focus on potential rebounds at resistance levels before further downward movement [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that strong U.S. non-farm data has diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a decline in gold prices despite initial support from concerns over new tariffs announced by Trump [1][3] - Gold prices faced resistance at $3340 and $3365, with support levels identified at $3325 and $3300, while a significant drop occurred to a new weekly low of $3287 [1][3] - The market's reaction to Trump's announcement of tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% has created a temporary surge in safe-haven buying, but this was not sustained as the strong non-farm data pressured gold prices downward [1][3] Group 2 - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for gold, with the 5-day moving average nearing a death cross and MACD and KDJ indicators also indicating downward momentum [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3310, $3320, and $3340, while support levels are at $3287, $3270, and $3247 [3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which are expected to impact gold prices in the near future [1][3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 热点品种 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东 局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗 原油出口的制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内 塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重大威胁，中东地缘风险 不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油 进入季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的 EIA 报告显示美国原 油、汽油库存意外增加，加上周末 OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高 54.8 万 桶/日。这超过此前市场预计的 41.1 万桶/日。不过，7 月 7 日，沙特阿美将旗 舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油 8 月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高出 2.20 美元，较 7 月上涨 1 美元，超出市场预期的每桶上涨 50 至 ...