首席点评： 黑色板块继续上涨 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔降息。此前一天，特朗普批评美联储当 前的利率政策，称美联储设定的利率至少偏高 3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了 3600 亿 美元的再融资成本。消息称特朗普正考虑在美联储主席鲍威尔明年离任前为美联储任命一位 " 影子主席 " ，以向美联储施压，迫使其降息。中证报头版刊文称，今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务 的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时，多地在财政预算调整方案中安排专项债用 于偿还拖欠企业账款。国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨，黑色系普遍上涨，焦煤涨 2.60% ，铁矿石涨 1.87% ；化工品中橡胶涨 1.19% ；油脂油料中豆粕涨 0.99% ，豆二涨 0.81% 。能源品普遍下跌，燃油 下跌 1.49% ，低硫燃料油下跌 0.57% 。 重点品种： 原油、焦煤、玻璃 7 月 10 日，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟公布数据显示， 6 月，我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh ，环 比增长 1.9% ，同比增长 35.9% 。其中三元电池装车量 10.7GWh ，占总装车量 18. ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 2025/07/10 15 306 84589 21729 -302.05 513.15 45.0 62.0 -0.95 108100 40950 变化 -45 -196 0 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 市场情绪延续回暖，玻璃、焦煤、纯苯涨幅靠前 ——中信期货晨报20250711 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | SEE THE FOR COLLECTION POST OF COLLECTION | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3972 | 0.49% | 0.91% | 2.224 | 222 | 1.30% | | | 上证50期货 | 2740.4 | 0.60% | 0.85% | 11914 | 1 91% | 2.33% | | | 中证500期货 | EdE88 | 0.49% | ...

CPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The core CPI has been rising since the beginning of the year, with June's core CPI at 0.7%, the highest since May 2024, driven mainly by core goods rather than services [2] - Service retail growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% from January to May 2025, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively [2] - The core goods CPI is expected to remain resilient in Q3, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, while facing high base pressure in Q4 [5][6] Service Prices - Service prices have shown a downward trend since 2020, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% expected in 2025 [8] - Tourism prices have weakened significantly, with a monthly average growth rate of -0.4% from January to June 2025, indicating a bottleneck in domestic cultural and tourism consumption recovery [9] Food Prices - Food items account for about 18% of the CPI, with pork prices being particularly volatile due to the pig cycle [13] - Pork prices are expected to remain low in Q3, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 as seasonal demand increases [14] Oil Prices - Oil-related products account for approximately 3.5% of the CPI, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $71.9 per barrel in the first half of the year, down 14.7% year-on-year [18] - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half due to weak demand and ongoing supply pressures [19] PPI Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The PPI has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, with significant price pressures across various industries [20] - Real estate investment and traditional infrastructure growth are dragging down building materials prices, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point decline in PPI [21] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to impact prices in certain industries, potentially providing some support to related commodity prices [29] Overall Economic Indicators - The forecast for PPI in the second half of the year is a slight recovery to around -2.3%, with Q3 PPI growth expected at -2.5% [30] - The GDP growth target for the second half of the year is set at 4.6%-4.7% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5.3%-5.4% [30]

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

2025年7月10日，上证指数成功站上3500点。 大约三个月前，上证指数一天跌了 7.34%，收于3096.58点。彼时大家可能都 没想到，此后A股表现强韧，主题轮动热点不断，指数一路上行，并最终在今 天站上3500点。这个点位上一次触及，是2024年10月8日，这个点位上一次 站稳，还是2022年1月24日 （ 数据来源：Choice ） 。 以下文章来源于兴证全球基金 ，作者与您相伴的 兴证全球基金 . 投资理财，有温度，有深度，有态度。 站上 3500点意味着什么？我们又该如何看待当前市场水温？现在还适合入市 吗？ 当前市场水温如何？ 回顾历史数据，当前各指数水温各有差异。上证指数点位回到 2022年初水平，中证2000指数一举收复至2017年4月的点位水平。 沪深 300、中证800、创业板指回到今年3月中旬点位，中证红利指数收复年初点位。主动权益基金也已修复4月跌幅，回到三月中旬点位。 而港股市场，自去年 9月开始受益于基本面和资金面的好转，一路震荡上行，截至目前，恒生指数和恒生科技指数也均已超越去年9月高点。 上证指数及中证 2000指数近10年表现 数据来源：Choice ，2015/7/1- ...

朗货HFAL 免费开户 看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 Elata 2025 07-10 町瞻布局 15:27 6 期市动态雷达 数据透视线索 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中61个合约上涨,16个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行(%) 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 下跌合约 16 涨幅居前的品种: 多晶硅2508(+5.50%)、玻璃2509(+5.25%)、焦煤 2509(+4.24%)。这些品种受供需影响显著。 跌幅居前的品种： 胶板2511(-2.58%)、菜油2509(-0.82%)、鸡蛋 2508(-0.69%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) St 20 15 10 持仓量增加显著的品种:纯苯2603(+58.46%)、上证2509(+14.01%)、 硅铁2509(+11.08%)。这些品种可能吸引了新资金入场，暗示交易热度 较高。 持仓量减少显著的品种: 纸浆2509(-19.19%)、纯碱2509(-11.61%)、 短纤2508(-10.29%)，主力资 ...

Strategy Overview - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, primarily driven by strong performance in the financial sector and expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - For the index to advance further, the effectiveness of incremental policies such as "anti-involution" needs to be demonstrated [2] Market Sentiment - There is a notable psychological focus on the 3500-point threshold, which may lead to passive selling by quantitative funds when this integer level is reached [2] - The report suggests downplaying the emphasis on the index's integer levels and instead focusing on the total return index, which better reflects the true performance of the Shanghai market [2] Financial Sector Contribution - As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 4.2%, with the financial sector contributing 2.8% to this growth [2][4] - The strong performance of bank and insurance stocks is identified as a core reason for the index's ability to reach the 3500-point level [2] Trading Volume Considerations - The report discusses the importance of trading volume in maintaining the index above 3500 points, suggesting that the focus should be on the financial sector's index performance rather than overall market trading volume [2] - Historical trends indicate that the banking sector's index benefits from incremental capital flows, with a stable trading volume leading to gradual price increases [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy, as defined in the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee, is expected to aid in macroeconomic structural adjustments and improve pricing factors, which could facilitate a classic market structure of "weight lifting and technology growth" [2] - This structure is anticipated to help the index achieve a "two steps forward, one step back" effect, leading to an upward shift in the market's central tendency [2] Sector Rotation and Investment Focus - The report notes a rapid rotation among sectors, with high absolute readings in sentiment indicators, suggesting a dual constraint of "upside risk" and "drawdown control" [2] - It recommends focusing on relatively undervalued technology growth sectors for potential investment opportunities [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3060， | | | 3100】 | | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3190，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【730,760】 | | 焦炭 | 短期偏强 | 焦炭 ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy aligns closely with sustainable development goals, as it aims to govern low-price and disorderly competition in enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a systemic action against "involution" competition [6] - The policy will assist high-energy-consuming industries in their low-carbon transition by eliminating backward production capacity and optimizing the energy structure, which is crucial for achieving sustainable development [6] - High-energy-consuming industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, account for 33% of national carbon emissions, with steel at 15%, cement at 13%, and aluminum at 5% [6] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy will also support the sustainable development of the renewable energy sector by regulating market order and curbing unhealthy competition, which threatens the industry's sustainability [6] - The renewable energy sector is vital for China's "dual carbon" strategy, as it can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy structure [6] - From 2017 to 2023, the greenhouse gas emissions of renewable energy producers and photovoltaic equipment were 0.08 million tons and 0.28 million tons, respectively, which are significantly lower than emissions from steel and aluminum industries [6]