根据国家统计局近日发布的数据，2025年中国经济顶住外部冲击，全年经济增长目标顺利实现。2026年 一季度项目储备和政策储备充足，需要提早发力，形成实物工作量，尽快实现稳投资，并借助春节假期 临近，大力提振消费。随着部分领域出口退税的下调，更多资金将用于畅通国内大循环。 2025年社会融资规模稳中有升，政府债券成为主力支撑 2025年12月金融数据略好于市场预期。央行数据显示，12月社会融资规模增量为22080亿元，同比少增 6457亿元。2025年全年，社会融资规模增量累计35.6万亿元，较2024年32.3万亿元的水平多增3.34万亿 元，这与年初积极财政政策导向和广义财政赤字发力支撑社融走高有关。2025年广义财政赤字的扩张支 撑全年社融同比多增。 2025年12月M1同比增速为3.8%，较2024年12月的1.2%有所回升，2025年12月M2同比增速为8.5%，高 于2024年12月的7.3%。2025年居民部门新增存款仍处于较高水平，但同比增幅在存款利率持续下降和 股市指数上升的双重影响下受到影响。而与之相对应的是，在股票市场预期持续好转的情况下，2025年 全年非银存款较2024年实现了倍增。 ...

化工买什么？20260120 摘要 化工行业估值处于历史低位，头部企业如万华、华鲁 PB 约为 2.4 倍， PE 约为 15 倍，远低于历史高点，隐含利润弹性空间，具备长期配置价 值。 中游化工板块受益于全球需求多元化，中国化工产能占比全球 40%以上， 叠加海外能源压力，中国供给有望满足全球需求。 基础化工行业资本开支下滑，供给增速放缓，油价中低位利好中游盈利 修复，全球经济复苏带动化工品需求增长，行业前景良好。 万华化学回归股东利益最大化策略，MDI 业务稳健，石化业务丙烷到丙 烯改造增厚毛利，锂电材料聚焦磷酸铁锂和负极，具备长期投资价值。 华鲁恒升依靠低成本优势平台化发展，底部利润明确，煤气化平台技改 和新项目投产带来增量，多个产品如电子级 DMC、草酸等紧缺涨价。 玻纤行业供给格局由国内主导，巨石集团管理层调整后回归利润中心， 供需共振推动中高端产品价格上涨，2026 年供给增速预计低于需求增 速。 钾肥市场需求端持续扩张，供给端增速缓慢，供需偏紧格局加剧，支撑 钾肥价格上行，磷矿石市场受磷肥和新能源需求驱动，延续高位景气。 Q&A 化工行业近期的市场表现如何？基本面是否发生了变化？ 过去一到两个月 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Weiyuan Co., Ltd. (维远股份) Key Points - **2025 Profit Forecast**: The company announced a profit warning for 2025, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 950-1,050 million yuan, primarily due to impairment provisions for long-term assets and inventory, which account for approximately 630 million yuan of the loss [1][2] - **Price Recovery**: Multiple major product prices have begun to rise from their bottom levels, and with the reduction of future impairment risks, the company's performance is expected to reach a turning point [2] - **PC Industry Outlook**: The expansion phase in the PC (Polycarbonate) industry is nearing completion. The company has undertaken technical upgrades to its existing 130,000 tons/year capacity, which is expected to enhance capacity and reduce unit costs. Additionally, no new capacity is anticipated in the PC industry by 2026 [2] - **Current PC Pricing**: As of January 16, the price of PC is 14,185 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 631 yuan/ton (4.66%) since the price low in September 2025 [2] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The overall supply-demand landscape of the "Phenol-Acetone—Bisphenol A—PC" industry chain is expected to gradually improve, providing significant upward elasticity in profit levels due to the ongoing "anti-involution" policies [2] - **Electrolyte Production**: The company is on the verge of launching a 250,000 tons/year electrolyte project, which is anticipated to contribute to a second growth curve. The existing 100,000 tons/year dimethyl carbonate facility will add 50,000 tons/year of dimethyl carbonate, 29,400 tons/year of diethyl carbonate, 150,400 tons/year of methyl ethyl carbonate, and 20,000 tons/year of propylene carbonate upon completion [2] - **Propylene Oxide Performance**: The company has a propane dehydrogenation capacity of 600,000 tons/year and an epoxy propane capacity of 300,000 tons/year. As of January 16, the price of epoxy propane is 8,620 yuan/ton, having increased by 700 yuan/ton weekly and 1,675 yuan/ton (24.12%) since the price low in 2025, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [3]

来源：中国能源网 中邮证券近日发布建材行业周报：年末全国市场逐步进入淡季，整体来看，全国需求仍呈现下滑态势， 房建市场持续疲弱，基建需求在政策驱动下呈现区域分化明显，民用市场相对需求刚性。从中期维度来 看，水泥行业产能有望在限制超产政策下产能持续下降，产能利用率从而大幅提升带来利润弹性。关 注：海螺水泥、华新建材。 以下为研究报告摘要： 消费建材：行业目前盈利已触底，价格经历多年竞争目前已无向下空间，此次借助反内卷政策行业对提 价及盈利改善诉求强烈，25年防水、涂料、石膏板等多品类持续发布提价函，行业盈利有望触底26年可 期待龙头企业的盈利改善。关注：东方雨虹、三棵树、北新建材、兔宝宝。 上周行情回顾 过去一周（01.12–01.18）主要指数涨跌幅情况：申万建筑材料行业指数（-0.67%），上证指数 （-0.45%），深证成指（+1.14%），创业板指（+1.00%），沪深300（-0.57%）。在申万31个一级子行 业指数中，建筑材料涨跌幅排名居第18位。 风险提示： 反内卷政策落地不及预期，地产及基建需求超预期下行风险。（中邮证券 赵洋） 投资要点 水泥：年末全国市场逐步进入淡季，整体来看，全国需求仍呈 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Carbonate Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the lithium carbonate market, discussing both short-term and long-term trends in supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Current market transactions reflect long-term factors such as an increase in lithium price central tendency and fundamental improvements, while short-term supply remains weak against strong demand [1][2]. - The demand for lithium during January and February showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of less than 4%, contrasting with typical declines of 20%-30% during the same period in previous years [2]. Supply Constraints - Short-term supply is limited due to slow environmental assessments for mining operations and stringent solid waste management regulations [2]. - The expected supply growth for lithium in 2026 is around 20%, primarily concentrated in the second half of the year, with a total supply chain increment of approximately 400,000 tons [5]. Demand Projections - Demand for power batteries is anticipated to grow by 10%-15%, while energy storage demand is expected to double domestically and increase by about 60% internationally, leading to an overall demand growth of approximately 30% [5]. Price and Profit Distribution - The introduction of anti-involution policies is expected to optimize performance and profit distribution within the lithium battery sector, with recent government actions aimed at improving cost structures and redistributing profits [3][4]. - The export tax rate for certain materials will decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2023, with a complete removal planned for 2027, which is expected to promote healthier market pricing [4]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term capital expenditure in the lithium industry is limited, with a supply ceiling estimated at around 3 million tons. Without new greenfield mining projects, supply will face constraints [6]. - The current phase is viewed as an opportunity for investment, as the market is in a price correction phase while maintaining a strong demand-supply imbalance [7]. Additional Important Insights - In the most optimistic supply and neutral demand scenario, a surplus of approximately 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate is expected, which could be balanced if inventory levels reach one month [5]. - The market is currently experiencing a price correction, which is seen as a good entry point for investments in the equity sector, given the clear upward trend in the price central tendency [6][7].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 伍超明 胡文艳 李沫 核心观点 一、2025年经济：供强需弱格局下，结构优化与动能转换加速。2025年四季度GDP增长4.5%，全年增 长5.0%，顺利完成全年增速目标，三个特征明显：一是"供强需弱"格局显著，低通胀压力持续；二是宏 观政策力度加大，但传导效率与边际效能有待提升；三是新旧动能转换加速，结构优化特征显著。 二、预计2026年一季度GDP增长4.9%、全年4.8%左右。中长期看，尽管"供强需弱"格局延续，但新旧 动能加速转换，高技术制造、现代服务业等贡献率提升，叠加"十五五"规划现代产业体系建设目标，内 生增长韧性增强。短期看，2025年末内需动能衰减惯性将延续，但中央经济工作会议已明确政策靠前发 力，逆周期调节加码将支撑一季度经济边际改善，全年走势取决于政策落地效率与结构优化成效。 三、12月经济延续供需分化态势，内生增长动力仍显不足，呈现"生产出口回升、消费投资承压"的结构 性特征。生产端，受出口回暖和新质生产力带动，工业增加值和服务业生产指数双双提升。需求端，社 零仅增长0.9% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments aim to support key sectors and enhance financial stability while managing inflation expectations [1][2][3] - In January, the bond market experienced fluctuations, initially declining due to stronger-than-expected economic indicators, including a manufacturing PMI above 50% and CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 [1] - The central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points on January 15, optimizing various monetary policy tools to support strategic sectors and small private enterprises [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic resilience and the acceleration of high-quality transformation are emphasized, with the central bank's policies focusing on targeted support rather than broad measures [2] - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation on January 15, indicating a continued injection of medium-term liquidity into the market [2] - The bond market is expected to remain supported by a reasonable liquidity environment, with short-term bonds stabilizing while long-term bonds face more negative factors due to rising inflation signals [3]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP surpassed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5%, successfully meeting the government's growth target despite complex external conditions and domestic supply-demand contradictions [1] - The industrial production, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, showed strong resilience, with exports exceeding expectations and becoming a key driver of economic growth [1] Production Sector - Industrial production was a major highlight in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in December for large-scale industrial added value, and high-tech manufacturing value growing by 11%, more than double the overall industrial growth rate [5] - Specific products like industrial robots and integrated circuits saw significant production increases of 14.7% and 12.9%, respectively, indicating the strengthening role of new productive forces in the economy [5] - The supply-side structure is changing due to "anti-involution" policies, leading to a reduction in blind expansion in some industries, with solar cell production growth dropping from 18.2% in the first half to -9.7% in December [7] Export Performance - The export value of large-scale industrial products increased by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, with notable performance in equipment manufacturing sectors such as railways, ships, and aerospace [7] Consumption Sector - The consumption market exhibited a structural characteristic where services outperformed goods, with service retail sales growing by 5.5% compared to goods retail [9] - The "old-for-new" policy showed mixed effects, with communication equipment retail sales surging by 20.9% in December, while categories like home appliances and automobiles faced demand pressure, declining by 18.7% and 5%, respectively [9][10] - There is a noticeable trend of consumption downshifting, with rural retail sales growing by 1.7%, surpassing urban growth of 0.7% [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% in 2025, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2%. However, signs of stabilization in real estate sales were observed, with a narrowing decline in December for both sales value and area [11] - Equipment renewal investment grew by 11.8%, supported by special government bonds, marking a structural highlight in the investment sector [11] Outlook for 2026 - The market anticipates a "good start" for 2026, driven by the continued effects of the "old-for-new" policy, proactive government bond issuance, and the release of delayed policies [11] - The focus will shift towards deeper economic structural transformation, emphasizing consumption over investment and technology over traditional manufacturing [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish approach, recommending buying on dips [6]. Core Viewpoints - The current output pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still holds expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week recovery of apparent demand remains strong year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in off-season demand. The warming sentiment of winter storage may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high, there has been continuous destocking recently, and if this trend continues, the pressure will ease. The hot-rolled coil futures have currently fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and attention should be paid to the support around the 30-day moving average in the medium term. However, it has not completely broken out of the oscillation range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Monday decreased compared to the previous trading day. It showed a weak oscillation during the day, falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages in the short term. It closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.75%. The intraday low was 3,291 yuan, and the high was 3,340 yuan. The open interest decreased by 12,645 lots, and the trading volume was 486,769 lots [1]. - Spot prices: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -9 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. The output has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of hot metal from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - Demand: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, up 5,100 tons year-on-year. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, with demand still showing resilience, mainly driven by accelerated exports and rigid procurement in the manufacturing industry. The willingness of end-users to stock up actively is weak, and speculative demand is also weak [4]. - Inventory: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If destocking can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution-style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush for export market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Core Insights - The dialogue between Zhao Jun and Tao Dong focuses on investment opportunities for 2026, highlighting a positive sentiment towards Chinese assets and a shift in market logic from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth [6][7][11]. Market Outlook - The sentiment towards Chinese assets is warming, with expectations for a "slow bull" market and more sustainable trends emerging [7][11]. - The market logic is shifting from valuation recovery to a focus on profit-driven growth, necessitating a more nuanced understanding of industry and company performance [7][11]. - The liquidity environment is seen as a significant supportive factor for the stock market, with potential inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [16][48]. Investment Opportunities - The concept of "expectation difference" is emphasized as a key opportunity in the next 6-12 months, particularly in low-attention assets that have not been fully recognized by the market [8][40][49]. - Key sectors for investment include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption trends, and commodities, with a focus on structural opportunities and supply-demand constraints [8][40][55]. - The AI sector is highlighted for its potential, with a focus on domestic market opportunities and applications in various industries, including autonomous driving and robotics [50][51][52]. Structural Changes in Consumption - The consumption landscape is evolving, with new structural opportunities emerging as demographics shift, particularly among younger and older populations [56][58]. - The "new consumption" trend is characterized by a focus on sustainable growth drivers rather than mere volume increases, with an emphasis on understanding consumer behavior and market connections [57][58]. Challenges and Risks - The competitive landscape is marked by "involution" among Chinese enterprises, leading to price wars and constrained profitability, which the "anti-involution" policies aim to address [46][47]. - The market is experiencing a shift towards short-term perspectives in asset pricing, necessitating a focus on risk management and scenario planning [60][61].