Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On September 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604 per ton, up 0.12%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $688 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $838 per ton, up 0.10%; the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, down 0.21% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,600 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,602 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,615 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,620 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $625 per ton (as of September 10), up 0.64% [1] - The near - far month spread of TA was - 86 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan; the basis was - 68 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 0.12%; the settlement price was 6,766 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,621 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $839 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $814 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $234 per ton, up 0.03% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $150 per ton, down 2.39%; the basis of PX was - 157 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,844 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,838 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; the settlement price was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [1] - The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The basis in the East China market was - 14 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 46 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,000 yuan per ton, down 1.06% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Startup and Production - Sales Information - On September 11, 2025, the startup rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.71%, up 1.12 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA factory in the PTA industry chain was 78.25%, unchanged; the load rate of the polyester factory was 88.25%, unchanged [1] - The load rate of the bottle chip factory was 73.27%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 65.54%, up 0.98 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 47.80%, down 21.20 percentage points; the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 71.44%, up 16.25 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53.63%, down 144.86 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22; two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] PX Summary - Due to the enhanced uncertainty in Eastern Europe after the Russian drone intrusion into Poland and the continuous impact in the Middle East, oil prices rose overnight. However, EIA inventory data showed a significant unexpected build - up of crude oil, and weak demand temporarily outweighed the expected impact of geopolitics on supply, causing oil prices to weaken during the day [2] - The cost - end oil market continued to run strongly, and the domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern. There were promotion activities in the polyester market, and the on - site wait - and - see atmosphere intensified, with no transaction heard during the day [2] - The fundamentals did not change significantly. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), with an intraday trading volume of 118,900 lots [2] - On the supply side, the Fuzhou and Fuhua devices did not operate as planned, the load of some devices increased, and the domestic PX startup increased. Some domestic and foreign PX devices restarted one after another, and the short - process profit margin expanded, so the PX supply increased more than expected [2] - Although it has entered the peak season of downstream polyester, new orders and loads have not shown unexpected performance, hitting market sentiment. Recently, the price of naphtha has trended strongly, and the PXN is expected to run weakly [2] PTA Summary - The demand performance in the peak season was poor. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,688 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 442,000 lots [2] - The high production - sales rate of downstream polyester filament could not be maintained, crude oil failed to rise strongly, the PTA spot supply was sufficient, the PTA market declined slightly, and the spot basis weakened [2] - The current processing margin also faces loss pressure for some new - technology PTA devices. There is new capacity release in the downstream, but due to the planned production cuts of some enterprises, the short - term market supply may remain stable [2] - Overall, the supply pressure of polyester filament has not increased significantly. In the short term, the impact of the demand side on the market price will still be relatively limited, and the market trading atmosphere may continue to be dull [2] - Although the social inventory of PTA is not high, the liquidity is relatively loose, and the weak demand has raised market concerns [2] PR Summary - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,830 - 5,910 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotation of bottle chips was stable, downstream terminals were cautious and wait - and - see, and the trading atmosphere was weak [2] - The downstream demand for PR was average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,844 yuan per ton (up 0.03%), with an intraday trading volume of 34,300 lots [2] - Recently, the startup of the bottle chip supply side has been stable, and the market spot supply is loose. Downstream terminals continue to make rigid purchases, and the trading atmosphere is cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tianji Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing strong demand, primarily driven by growth in the energy storage sector, with an optimistic demand growth rate of 25%-30% expected through 2026 [2][3] - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share, which has recently approached 80% [4] - The supply-demand situation is currently tight, with rising lithium carbonate prices increasing raw material costs, leading to price hikes for small batch orders [16] Company Performance - Tianji Co., Ltd. has significantly increased its lithium hexafluorophosphate production, expecting to produce approximately 24,000 tons in the second half of the year, a rise of 9,000 tons compared to the first half [2][7] - The nominal annual production capacity is 37,000 tons, with actual capacity potentially reaching 45,000 tons [8] - The company plans to invest nearly 400 million yuan in a new 15,000-ton production line, with equipment costs estimated at 25-26 million yuan per ton [2][28] Sales and Market Share - In 2025, Tianji's total sales are projected to be close to 40,000 tons, with C customers accounting for approximately 40% of sales [11] - The market share among C customers is estimated to be around 30%-35%, with expectations of over 25% growth in sales to these customers in 2026 [12][13] Pricing and Cost Structure - Tianji is currently operating at a break-even point with a sales price of around 55,000 yuan per ton, with production costs for new capacity slightly above 50,000 yuan per ton [5][17] - The cost difference between old and new production lines is approximately 10,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates limited new capacity additions in the first half of 2026, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance and potential price increases [20] - If the growth rate reaches 30% in 2026, a supply shortage is likely, further solidifying the market position of leading companies [21] - The overall effective capacity in the industry is expected to be below 300,000 tons, with the top companies collectively holding about 200,000 tons of capacity [24] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is challenging for smaller companies, many of which are operating at reduced capacity or have ceased production due to cost pressures [25][27] - The top three companies maintain communication and collaboration to navigate market changes and avoid destructive competition [30] Financial Performance - Tianji has reported consecutive losses in 2024 and 2025, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the need for periodic market adjustments [31] - The company has effectively managed inventory write-downs, with no significant impacts on the third quarter's performance [37] Raw Material Prices - Key raw materials, including anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and phosphorus pentachloride, have shown stable pricing trends, with the latter experiencing a decline due to oversupply [32] Customer Relationships - Pricing negotiations with major customers like BYD and CATL are structured around long-term contracts, with adjustments based on market conditions [33][34] International Operations - Tianji currently supplies a small volume of products overseas but has no immediate plans for overseas manufacturing due to high costs [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the fatty acid market, particularly for stearic acid and lauric acid, driven by the strong rise in palm oil prices since August [1][2] - As of August 31, the average price of stearic acid was 10,044 yuan per ton, an increase of 571.22 yuan (6.03%) from August 1, while lauric acid averaged 18,600 yuan, up 1,703.05 yuan (10.08%) [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing tight supply and cost support, leading stearic acid producers to flexibly adjust prices based on their inventory, with expectations of price increases in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - The strong performance of palm oil, primarily imported from Malaysia and Indonesia, is influencing domestic prices, with palm oil prices rising to an average of 9,393.57 yuan, up 470.64 yuan (5.27%) since August 1 [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory was reported at 2.113 million tons, lower than expected, while exports increased by 3.82%, alleviating concerns of oversupply and supporting price increases [2] - Indonesia's biodiesel policies are expected to sustain demand for palm oil, further supporting international prices as exports decrease [2] Group 3 - The fatty acid market is facing supply constraints due to raw material shortages, low operating rates, and low inventory levels among companies, which are limiting the availability of stearic acid [3] - Despite weak terminal demand and reduced production capacity, the overall supply-demand balance remains tight, keeping stearic acid prices elevated [3] - The import volume of stearic acid in July was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 32.9% year-on-year, with rising import costs further suppressing import intentions [3] Group 4 - Demand for fatty acids is currently weak, with downstream industries primarily consuming previously low-priced orders and showing resistance to high-priced raw materials [4] - The tire and real estate sectors have not yet activated demand, leading to a supply surplus in the stearic acid market, where some manufacturers are forced to lower prices to stimulate sales [4] - The PVC production chain, which relies on stearic acid, is facing low demand due to limited new construction projects in real estate, resulting in only essential purchases from downstream enterprises [4] Group 5 - Lauric acid demand is also affected by seasonal changes, with a decline in demand from the daily chemical and food industries as they enter autumn and winter [5] - However, there is some minor replenishment of inventory due to the rising prices of palm kernel oil, despite overall market transactions being limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [9] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating at the bottom. The fundamentals of building materials in the off - season are poor, while the consumption of plates shows good resilience. The overall supply - demand of steel has not improved significantly, and attention should be paid to subsequent supply - demand performance, EAF losses, and real - estate policies [1]. - The market is cautiously observing, and iron ore prices have declined slightly. Supply has increased month - on - month, and demand will decline due to the parade. Attention should be paid to the impact of sea - floating volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - Short - term demand is limited, and coking coal and coke are operating weakly. Affected by the parade, short - term demand is mainly for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to the post - parade market supply recovery progress and material de - stocking rhythm [5][6]. - The market is highly watchful, and the pattern of coal mine price cuts remains unchanged. With the approaching parade, non - power industry production is restricted, and power coal demand has declined from its peak. In the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3349 yuan/ton. Spot steel trading was generally weak, with rebar performing better than hot - rolled coil. Yesterday's steel trading volume was 11.11 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials in the off - season are poor, and steel prices are under pressure during the contract roll - over. The consumption of plates shows good resilience, but the off - season pattern remains unchanged. Currently, there is no macro - market disturbance, and the raw material replenishment for parade - related production restrictions has been completed. Downstream demand has a greater impact [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated and declined. The main 2601 contract closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Yesterday, the total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 91.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.16%; the total trading volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 160.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: With the arrival of previously high sea - floating iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month. Demand remains at a high level in the short - term but will decline due to the parade. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main coking coal and coke contracts continued the weakly oscillating pattern of the previous trading day. The coking coal 2601 contract decreased by 3.87%, and the coke 2601 contract decreased by 2.82%. The price of imported coal fluctuated weakly, and the trading atmosphere was cold [5]. - **Logic and Views**: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, the black commodity sector is in a weakly oscillating pattern. For coking coal, as the delivery month approaches, the open interest has decreased significantly, and there is short - term liquidity pressure. For coke, some enterprises are implementing production restrictions due to environmental protection requirements, and demand is further suppressed by the parade [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices have declined slightly. Frequent rainfall has restricted production and sales, and downstream traders have slowed down their purchases. At ports, the market is cold, and coal prices are continuously declining. Ports are still in the de - stocking cycle. Imported coal is operating weakly and stably [8]. - **Demand and Logic**: With the approaching parade, non - power industries are implementing production restrictions, and power coal demand has declined from its peak. In the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [8]. - **Strategy**: None [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to production cuts and controlled sales by polysilicon manufacturers, which have alleviated market supply pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 47,900 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1]. - N-type granular silicon has an average transaction price of 46,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1]. - Major polysilicon manufacturers are implementing varying degrees of production cuts, with the largest reductions from the top two companies, leading to increased overall costs and expectations for price increases [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Concerns - Despite the price increases, there are still pressures in the supply chain, with August polysilicon production estimated at 125,000 to 130,000 tons [3]. - The industry is expected to see an accumulation of inventory, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons in August and September [3]. - The optimistic outlook from the silicon industry association suggests that, despite inventory pressures, the average price of polysilicon is likely to continue rising due to production cuts and cost increases [3]. Group 3: Silicon Wafer and Cell Pricing - Silicon wafer prices have remained stable, with average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N wafers at 1.20 CNY/piece, 1.35 CNY/piece, and 1.55 CNY/piece, respectively [3]. - The market sentiment for silicon wafers is positive, but end-user demand has not significantly improved, leading to a stalemate between buyers and sellers [3][4]. - In the battery cell segment, average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells are stable at 0.29 CNY/W, 0.285 CNY/W, and 0.285 CNY/W, respectively [4]. Group 4: Component Market Trends - The component market is experiencing weak terminal demand, with new orders being minimal and primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders [5]. - Recent bidding prices for components range from 0.68 CNY/W to 0.75 CNY/W, indicating a decline in overall transaction prices [5]. - The market remains cautious, with the need to observe the effectiveness of policy implementations affecting component pricing [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.