Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom [1][2][4]. - For polysilicon, recent spot transactions are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, spot market transactions were average, and the futures market oscillated within a range. The spot price stabilized. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 441 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract 2509 on the previous Friday was 7390 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase from the last trading day of the previous week. The total open interest of industrial silicon futures was about 577,000 lots [1]. - **Supply**: This week, industrial silicon supply continued to increase. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased significantly, decreased in the Northeast, and remained stable in the Southwest. The total number of open furnaces increased by 5. The weekly output of sample manufacturers reached 36,600 tons, a 1655 - ton increase from the previous week. It is expected that the output in June will increase to about 350,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Overall market demand remained weak this week. The polysilicon production increased slightly to 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. The overall operating rate of the organic silicon industry remained at 70.29%, with little change, and the weekly DMC output was 49,000 tons, a slight increase of 1400 tons. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon was mainly based on needs, and the order volume decreased slightly. In May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,700 tons, an 8% decrease month - on - month and a 22% decrease year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a 10% decrease year - on - year [2]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the statistical inventory of the silicon metal industry was 784,500 tons (including registered warehouse receipts), showing a slight decrease. The port inventory was 131,000 tons, the delivery inventory was 428,000 tons, and the factory inventory of sample enterprises was 225,500 tons. As of May 20, there were 54,623 registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 273,115 tons of physical goods. The total supply - demand inventory may still increase, but the statistical inventory decreased slightly due to changes in the inventory structure [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Electricity prices in some northwestern regions and the southwestern flood season decreased, and the prices of silica and silicon coal on the raw material side were unstable. The overall cost support was weak. Although the cost decreased due to the reduction in raw materials and southwestern electricity prices, most enterprises still faced significant cost pressure and were in a loss - making state, except for self - supplied power production enterprises [3]. Strategy - Overall, the supply side of industrial silicon has an increase, the consumption side is weak, and the total inventory continues to rise. Most manufacturers face significant cost pressure, but the short - term price has stabilized. The price may oscillate weakly at the bottom. It is recommended to focus on whether there are policy impacts at the price bottom. If the price rebounds, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell - hedge at high prices [4]. Polysilicon Spot Market - **Price**: According to SMM statistics, this week, the price index of N - type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 33 - 36 yuan/kg, the mainstream price of mixed feedstock dropped to about 33 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type granular silicon was 31.5 yuan/kg. The price of polysilicon continued to decline. The main contract 2507 of polysilicon dropped significantly during the week, and the closing price on Friday was 31,700 yuan/ton, a 5.92% decrease from the previous week. The total open interest was 181,500 lots [4]. - **Supply**: Currently, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads. After the resumption of production in some bases, the weekly output increased. This week, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,500 tons, a 700 - ton increase week - on - week. In June, some southwestern bases resumed production, leading to an increase in supply. However, there may be some production cuts in the northwest in the future, and the total supply in July may not change much. Currently, the price is low, and manufacturers face significant cost pressure, so the supply is uncertain [4][5]. - **Demand**: This week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.50% decrease week - on - week. The price of N - type 18X silicon wafers was 0.88 - 0.92 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210RN silicon wafers was 1.07 - 1.3 yuan/piece. The price continued to decline, and the prices of second - and third - tier small factories were lowered. The market sentiment was still weak. The silicon wafer production plan in June did not change significantly, and some first - tier enterprises intended to cut production, but the amplitude was limited. The terminal demand was weak [5]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 262,000 tons, a 4.7% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74 GW, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month. This week, the warehouse receipts changed little, with a total of 2600 lots, equivalent to 7800 tons. After the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game weakened [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon changed little. The estimated tax - free cash cost of granular silicon could be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton. The tax - free cash cost of rod - shaped silicon varied among enterprises, ranging from 30,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost at the supply - demand balance point was about 32,000 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Overall, recent spot transactions of polysilicon are scarce, the fundamentals are weak, and after the increase in warehouse receipts, the delivery game has weakened. Polysilicon is still in the process of bottom - seeking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of joint production cuts and policy disturbances. The strategy is range - bound operation, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For caustic soda: Cautious short - selling hedging [3] - For PVC: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously decreasing, and the market remains weak. Although the plant - level inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level. The futures are deeply in contango, and the spot price is falling. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit in the later stage [1][2][3]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC has increased due to the rise in the price of upstream raw material ethylene driven by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not significantly improved. The supply pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak. Although the export is increasing in the short term, there are uncertainties in the Indian import anti - dumping policy [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the SH main contract closing price of caustic soda futures was 2,256 yuan/ton (-32), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 275 yuan/ton (-31). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton (-20), and that of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1,330 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of June 20, 2025, the main contract closing price of PVC futures was 4,903 yuan/ton (+3), the East China basis was - 113 yuan/ton (+17), and the South China basis was - 23 yuan/ton (+27). The spot price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4,790 yuan/ton (+20), in South China was 4,880 yuan/ton (+30). The spot price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,000 yuan/ton (+50), and in South China was 4,920 yuan/ton (+0) [5]. III. Cost - Profit - **Caustic Soda**: As of June 20, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 837.83 yuan/ton (-62.50), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 205.03 yuan/ton (-62.50), the single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,540.15 yuan/ton (-62.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: As of June 20, 2025, the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 493.98 yuan/ton (+17.77), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 640.42 yuan/ton (-79.88), and the export profit of PVC was - 10 US dollars/ton (-1) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 81.20% (+0.30%), and the weekly output was 79.28 tons (+0.23). Recently, there are both plant overhauls and restarts in Shandong, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month. In the later stage, there are plans to put into production new capacities in Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 1 yuan/ton (+0). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane have increased, and the weekly output of chloroform has also increased [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The upstream calcium carbide average operating load was 63.10% (+1.51%), the PVC operating rate was 78.62% (-0.63%), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (-1.34%), and the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 73.81% (+1.22). The loss due to shutdown and overhaul was 12.57 tons (+0.37). Although the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month, the output is still at a high level, and there are plans to put into production new capacities from June to July, so the supply pressure is still large [5][6]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 80.74% (-0.13%), the weekly output was 171.50 tons (-0.30), and the port inventory was 6.80 tons (+1.80). The operating rates of non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp have shown different degrees of decline or increase [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 44.31% (-1.49%), among which the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films have all decreased. The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.79 tons (+0.96). The domestic demand is weak, but the export orders have increased month - on - month, and the Indian BIS standard policy has been postponed, which supports the short - term export demand [5][6]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda plant - level inventory was 36.65 tons (-3.88), and the flake caustic soda plant - level inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The PVC plant - level inventory was 40.16 tons (+0.51), and the social inventory was 35.51 tons (+0.03), including 31.23 tons in East China (+0.01) and 4.28 tons in South China (+0.02) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to be volatile due to the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Long - term supply may be in surplus, with prices fluctuating between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and trending to oscillate. SC price range is [445 - 465] [1][4] - **LPG**: Weak due to the suppression of the futures market by increasing warrants and poor downstream profits, although import costs have decreased. Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to continue weakening. PG price range is [4030 - 4080] [1][7] - **L**: Weak as both futures and spot prices are falling, inventory reduction is slowing, and supply is abundant. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [1][10] - **PP**: Weak as it is in the domestic demand off - season, with new production capacity coming online from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [1][13] - **PVC**: Weak as cost support is collapsing, new production capacity is planned to be put into operation from May to June, and export is uncertain. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [1][15] - **PX**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance, and the fundamentals are improving in May. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [1][17] - **PTA**: Bullish on dips as the supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are operating at high levels. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [1][20] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Bullish as supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume, and the terminal weaving is performing well. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [1][22] - **Glass**: Bearish as the macro - risk appetite is decreasing, demand is weak in the rainy season, and the supply is increasing at a low level. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [1][25] - **Soda Ash**: Weak as new production capacity is being put into operation, supply is abundant, demand support is weak, and inventory is high. SA price range is [1250 - 1280] [1][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to correct as supply is increasing while demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. SA price range is [2450 - 2500] [1][30] - **Methanol**: Bearish on rebounds as supply pressure is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and cost support is weak. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [1][32] - **Urea**: Hold for observation as supply pressure remains high, agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up, and export is growing. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [1][35] - **Asphalt**: Volatile and bullish as the cost is dragging down, but downstream demand is relatively optimistic, and inventory is at a low level. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [1][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On May 23, WTI rose 0.54%, Brent fell 0.36%, and SC fell 1.69%. WTI was at $61.53/barrel, Brent at $64.21/barrel, and SC at 454.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **Basic Logic**: The core drivers are the upcoming summer consumption peak and OPEC+ production increase. Supply: US Chevron's license will expire on May 27, and Saudi Arabia's March production increased slightly while exports decreased. Demand: IEA and EIA expect stable or increasing global oil demand. Inventory: US strategic and commercial crude inventories increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between $55 - 65. Short - term, it is stabilizing and oscillating. Focus on SC [445 - 465] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 23, the PG main contract closed at 4086 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is oscillating, and the fundamentals are bearish. Warrants increased, and the supply and factory inventory rose. PDH device profit improved slightly, while alkylation device profit decreased. Supply increased, and demand showed mixed trends in different sectors. Inventory: refinery inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, it is expected to weaken. Technically, it is weak. Consider partially closing short positions. Focus on PG [4030 - 4080] [7] L - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9] - **Basic Logic**: After the Sino - US tariff boost, the supply reduction has limited support for prices. Import volume has increased, and demand has been over - consumed. Next week, supply is expected to increase, and demand will remain stable. It is expected to decline on rebounds. L price range is [7050 - 7150] [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities [10] PP - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices fell. The L - PP09 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton [12] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve, with strong supply and weak demand. It is in the domestic demand off - season, and new production capacity will be put into operation from May to July. It is expected to decline on rebounds, testing previous lows. PP price range is [6930 - 7030] [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds [13] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 7 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic PVC market is weak. Supply is high as maintenance resumes, and demand is low. Export is expected to weaken. Cost support is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. V price range is [4820 - 4920] [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term [15] PX - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6652 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 27 yuan/ton [16] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by planned maintenance at home and abroad. The PXN spread is high, and gasoline cracking spreads are improving. PTA device maintenance is high, and demand is weakening. Inventory decreased in April but is still high. It is expected to oscillate strongly. PX price range is [6600 - 6780] [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on PX [6600 - 6780] [18] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4880 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 148 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 164 yuan/ton [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level device maintenance. The processing fee is high, and production and inventory are at high levels. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly. TA price range is [4680 - 4800] [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on TA [4680 - 4800] [20] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 4532 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4403 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 129 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is relieved by high - level maintenance and low arrival volume. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. EG price range is [4380 - 4460] [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on EG [4380 - 4460] [23] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices fell, the basis widened, and warrants decreased [24] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - level risks are increasing, and the domestic economic situation is weakening. Supply is increasing at a low level, and demand is slow to improve. Inventory is high, and companies are focused on de - stocking. It is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. FG price range is [990 - 1030] [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on FG [990 - 1030]. Be cautious when short - selling, and watch the 1030 resistance level [25] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices decreased, futures prices were weak, the basis narrowed, warrants remained unchanged, and forecasts increased [26] - **Basic Logic**: The commodity market is weak, and the fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. Supply is still abundant despite maintenance, and demand support is weak. Inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. It is expected to be bearish. SA price range is [1260 - 1290] [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on SA [1260 - 1290]. It will fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [27] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, futures prices corrected, the basis widened, and warrants remained unchanged [29] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing, with regional differences. Chlor - alkali enterprise profits are declining, and inventory is decreasing. Alumina production capacity is increasing, but the price is weakening. Chlorine prices are low, leading to potential maintenance. It is expected to correct within a range [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in a clear form Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price in East China was 2312 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2222 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and the port basis was 68 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing as maintenance devices resume and imports increase. Demand is improving as MTO device operation recovers, but traditional demand is in the off - season. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to decline on rebounds. MA price range is [2220 - 2270] [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on MA [2220 - 2270], and sell call options [33] Urea - **Market Review**: On May 23, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1827 yuan/ton. The UR9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, and the Shandong basis was 53 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high as some maintenance devices resume. Agricultural demand is in a lull but is expected to pick up. Industrial demand is neutral, and export is growing. Inventory is increasing. Cost support is weak. It is expected to have limited rebound. UR price range is [1820 - 1850] [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on UR [1820 - 1850] [36] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On May 23, the BU main contract closed at 3516 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [38] - **Basic Logic**: The cost is stabilizing, demand is good with a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly. BU price range is [3505 - 3545] [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Medium - to - long - term, the price center may decline. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Try long positions with a light position. Focus on BU [3505 - 3545] [39]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views Methanol - Port inventory inflection point appears, import increment expectation exerts pressure, and the increasing inventory pressure leads to a significant weakening of the basis. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate downward in the short term, with a target range of 2050 - 2100. The 69 reverse spread can be reduced at low levels [1]. Urea - The upstream new order shipment situation is fair, and most urea factories still have pre - received orders to be delivered, but the market sentiment is cautious. The trading logic of the urea market lies in the demand side, mainly the start - up rhythm of domestic agricultural demand. If there is concentrated procurement at the beginning of June, it may support the short - term price. It is recommended to wait and observe in the short - term [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. The alumina industry has a resumption expectation, and the increase in the purchase price of Shandong mainstream factories is the main driving force for the spot price increase. The futures price may rise further, but there are risks. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try a positive spread. For PVC, the short - term rebound is due to macro - stimulation and supply - demand support, but there is an over - supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper resistance of the 09 contract around 5100 [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply - demand is good, but it is under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low levels around 6600. - PTA: There is an expectation of supply - demand turning weak, and it is recommended to go long at low levels around 4600 and pay attention to reverse spread opportunities. - MEG: Expected to destock in May - June, but the upward space is restricted. It is recommended to wait and observe unilaterally and go for a positive spread at low levels for the 9 - 1 spread. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is under pressure, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin at the lower limit of the range [12]. Polyolefin - LLDPE: Before early June, maintenance increases, imports are low, demand improves in the short - term, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: The maintenance reaches a peak in late May, supply pressure increases later, demand has short - term benefits but mid - term concerns. It is recommended to go short at high levels unilaterally, and the LP spread is expected to expand [32]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical risks, macro and fundamental factors are in a stalemate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and consider buying volatility for options [35]. Styrene - The recent rebound is based on demand expectation correction and low - inventory support, but the price shows weakness. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the EB - BZ spread widening [41]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Most methanol futures and spot prices declined on May 20 compared to May 19, with significant changes in some spreads such as MA2505 - 2509 and MA2501 - 2505 [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 11.14%, while Zhongchun Port inventory decreased by 13.88%. The weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 changed, with the domestic enterprise开工率 slightly decreasing, and the external - procurement MTO device开工率 increasing by 12.67% [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures prices showed different changes, and most spot prices declined slightly. Some spreads and basis also changed [3]. - **Position and Production Cost**: The long - position and short - position of the top 20 changed, and the production cost of some raw materials remained stable [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days showed different changes [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with some spreads and basis showing significant fluctuations [7]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: Overseas quotations and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed, with a significant decline in the export profit of PVC [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, and the inventory of PVC and caustic soda decreased [7][8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as PX - related, PTA - related, and MEG - related spreads [12]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various industries in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester, showed different changes [12]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and some spreads and basis also changed [32]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventory showed different trends, and the开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Crude oil prices and spreads, including Brent, WTI, and SC, changed on May 21 compared to May 20 [35]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads also changed [35]. Styrene - **Upstream Price**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and pure benzene changed [38]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices declined, and the basis and monthly spread changed [39]. - **Overseas Quotation and Import Profit**: Overseas quotations of styrene declined, and the import profit data was incomplete [40]. - **开工率 and Profit**: The开工率 and profit of the styrene industry chain changed, with significant increases in the integrated and non - integrated profits of styrene [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed, with most showing a decreasing trend [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend intensity ratings for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume decreased, the open interest of the 09 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The spot - futures basis and the difference between different months showed certain changes. The prices of some foreign - sourced rubbers decreased [6]. - **Industry News**: In April 2025, automobile production and sales showed a year - on - year increase, and new - energy vehicle exports maintained high growth [8]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: The price of butadiene has corrected, and the market is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume, open interest, and trading value of the futures market decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of various types of synthetic rubber in the spot market decreased, and the price of butadiene also declined [9]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in Chinese sample enterprises decreased. The domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the price increase space of butadiene rubber was limited [9][12]. Asphalt - **Market Trend**: It is in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume of futures increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The prices of spot asphalt in different regions changed, and the refinery's operating rate and inventory rate decreased [13]. - **Market News**: The weekly output of domestic asphalt decreased, and the inventory of sample factories and social warehouses decreased [26]. LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][27]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased [27]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Although the export of plastic products provides short - term support, the supply pressure of polyethylene is large, with high production and high inventory. The demand in the later period is weak, and the trend is under pressure [28]. PP - **Market Trend**: The price decreased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed slightly. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [31]. - **Spot News**: The domestic PP market weakened, the futures price declined, and the market trading atmosphere was flat [32]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: The rebound is difficult to sustain. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][34]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 09 contract and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong are provided, along with the basis [34]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The downstream demand for caustic soda lacks continuous driving force, the supply is high, and there is new production capacity in the future. It is in the demand off - season, and the supply needs to be reduced to balance supply and demand [36]. Pulp - **Market Trend**: It is in a fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][39]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The domestic and international prices of different types of pulp changed [40]. - **Industry News**: The pulp market was weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and the port inventory was high. The price of household paper was weak, and the demand was in the off - season [41][43]. Glass - **Market Trend**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][44]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or decreased slightly [44]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market was weak, the price was adjusted downward, and the market was waiting and watching [44]. Methanol - **Market Trend**: It is under pressure to fluctuate. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][47]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, trading volume, and trading value decreased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions decreased [48]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index decreased, the prices in many regions decreased, the enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The port inventory decreased last week, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future [50]. Urea - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][52]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price increased slightly, the trading volume and trading value decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices of factories and traders were stable or decreased slightly [53]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with a balance between long and short positions, with support below and limited upward space due to policy control [54][55]. Styrene - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different contracts of styrene decreased, and the profit margins of non - integrated and integrated operations decreased. The difference between different months changed [56]. - **Spot News**: The price of pure benzene is still weak, the supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient. The inventory of styrene is low, and the downstream production and sales showed short - term improvement [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][58]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price decreased, the trading volume increased, and the open interest increased. The basis and the difference between different months changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable [60]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, the supply decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was average, with a short - term stable trend expected [60]. LPG - **Market Trend**: The short - term support is strengthening, and attention should be paid to the rebound of the domestic market. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0) [2][62]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The differences between different prices changed, and the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased [62]. - **Market News**: The expected prices of Saudi CP in June and July decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in the market [69][70]. PVC - **Market Trend**: There is still pressure in the later period. The trend intensity is rated as bearish (- 1) [2][72]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price, spot price, basis, and the difference between the 9 - 1 months are provided [72]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The current PVC production and inventory are high, the production reduction is difficult, the export competition pressure is high, and the domestic demand is weak [72][73]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: The fuel oil had a small increase during the day session and entered an adjustment phase. The low - sulfur fuel oil weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas market rebounded slightly. The trend intensity of both is rated as neutral (0) [2][76]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipts of different contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed. The spot prices in different regions also changed [76]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: It is in a high - level fluctuating state. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 6 - 8 backwardation spread and hold the 10 - 12 backwardation spread. [2][78]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of different contracts changed. The freight rate indexes of European and US - West routes showed different trends [78].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...