投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 利好预期发酵，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价触底回升，录得 0.97%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应降至低位，给予钢价支撑，而需求季节性走弱，基本面并无实 质性改善，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是政策预期与估值偏低，后续走 势维持低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.58%日涨幅，量增 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.37% to close at 3909.52 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.61% to 3209.60 points, indicating a weak and fluctuating market sentiment overall [4][8]. - The total trading volume across both exchanges reached 19,040 billion, with significant activity in sectors such as commercial retail, communication services, and food and beverage, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and pharmaceuticals faced declines [4][6]. Sector Analysis - CPO (Co-packaged optics) stocks continued to rise, driven by increased capital expenditure plans from U.S. tech companies for AI data centers, which are expected to generate substantial orders for optical modules due to their advantages in high-speed data transmission [5]. - Consumer stocks, particularly in commercial retail and food and beverage, saw increased activity following the release of a government plan aimed at enhancing consumer goods supply and demand adaptability, suggesting potential opportunities in sectors catering to the elderly and budget-conscious consumers [6]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a cautious approach, advising investors to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic policy developments, adjusting portfolio structures accordingly. If favorable policies emerge, there may be opportunities to increase positions in structurally advantageous assets [7][8]. - The recommendation is to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, employing strategies such as balanced allocation and tactical buying and selling, particularly in sectors with strong earnings support, including technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes) and cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals) [7][8].

一是经济调控模式转型弱化了政策的季节性特征。 过去经济高度依赖地产与基建驱动，而流动性投放也往往 集中在一季度，形成"宽信用"窗口、催化春季行情启动。地产与基建行业规模大、链条长、带动广，对经济景 气具有"广谱性"拉动作用，其中居民购房作为重要的信用派生载体，一度成为一季度信贷"开门红"投放的重要 着力点。早年间信贷与财政额度的集中投放，往往会在年初提振市场信心，叠加3月全国两会前的政策预期升 温，市场通常在1-2月启动春季行情。近年来随着传统增长引擎刺激效力减弱，年初投放的实质性拉动有限， 因此季节性的"宽信用-宽预期"逻辑正在淡化。 二是资金博弈下，"学习效应"促使行情前置。 随着市场参与者 对春季行情规律的认知深化，部分资金提前布局以占据先机。这种"抢跑"行为导致市场预期在节前被快速定 价，节后利好逐步兑现，行情结束时点亦相应前移。 政策预期也是被认为是触发春季躁动最核心且高频的驱动力。华创证券的报告中提到，2010年以来的16次春季 躁动行情中，政策预期驱动占据主导地位，共出现9次，足见在经济数据真空、企业盈利尚未验证的背景下， 市场对于宏观政策信号高度敏感。政治局会议和中央经济工作会议召开在即，这两 ...

科技与 AI 主题仍贡献一定支撑，但整体风险偏好在收益率变化与政策不确定性的影响下趋于谨慎。 纽约联储最新调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀的预期仍维持在 3.2% 左右，对长期通胀的看法也保持 稳定。同时，受访家庭对就业环境的未来判断有所改善。但现实情况并不轻松，更多家庭表示当前财务 状况较去年更紧张，呈现出"预期乐观但现实承压"的状态。若 ADP 或 JOLTS 等就业数据接下来继续出 现分化，市场对政策路径的理解可能随数据波动而出现快速切换。 围绕总统解职权的最高法院讨论引发市场关注。若相关议题朝扩大行政权力方向推进，投资者将更留意 美联储的政策独立性，从而提升市场对政策沟通的敏感度。同时，美乌与美俄之间的互动仍存在不稳定 因素，虽短线难以显著推升黄金，但为避险情绪提供底部支撑。制度性风险与地缘局势叠加宏观数据， 使得市场处于"高预期、高敏感度"的运行环境。 以区间思路为主：短线关注 4170–4220 美元区域，在政策信号明确前，区间震荡概率更高，避免追涨或 在不确定区间重仓做空。 周二亚洲盘，黄金在周初强势触及高位后出现回调，短线跌破 4200 美元并在每盎司 4195 美元附近整 理。市场普遍押注美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a weak - balance stage, and after the accumulation of positive signals and the display of market resilience, a market repair process is expected to occur [6]. - The 12 - month Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to set a positive tone for policies in 2026 and boost market risk appetite [6]. - The US labor market pressure remains unresolved, and the Fed may need to cut interest rates in December [6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Last week, the four stock - index futures showed a narrow - range upward oscillation trend, with relatively large increases in CSI 300 and CSI 500. All main contracts remained in the futures discount mode, with the basis of IH at - 10.14, IF at - 4.61, IC at - 14.64, and IM at - 22.69 [4]. - The A - share market showed a narrow - range oscillation last week, with prominent hot - topic sectors. The prices of non - ferrous metal futures and stocks reached new highs, and the listing of a domestic chip company on Friday drove up the communication computing power sector, but the high valuation of new listings may have a negative impact on the computing power sector later [4]. - On Friday, there were multiple hot sectors such as communication computing power, commercial space, non - ferrous metals, insurance and securities, and new energy. With limited increase in overall market trading volume, funds actively attacked multiple sectors without causing obvious weakness in other sectors [4]. Comprehensive Analysis - Macroscopically, the upward trend of PPI is relatively clear, while the market's optimistic expectations for policies need verification [5]. - Overseas, the pressure on the US labor market remains, and the deteriorating labor market is the main contradiction in the Fed's monetary policy, making a December interest - rate cut necessary [6].

【环球网财经综合报道】世界黄金协会日前展望2026年黄金前景认为，黄金价格大致反映了宏观经济的 共识预期，如果目前的情况持续下去，金价可能保持区间波动。但从今年的情况来看，2026年可能会继 续令人惊讶，有望从当前位置再上涨15%到30%。 另据世界黄金协会数据，黄金ETF总持有量在11月底增至3932吨，连续第六个月录得增长。其中超过 700吨是在2025年买入的，使得持仓量有望创下历来最大的年度增幅。 东吴证券近日撰文详细分析认为，11月初因通胀与就业数据延迟发布，政策预期更依赖美联储表态，部 分官员偏鸽讲话使降息概率上调，金价获得支撑；月中就业数据高于预期、美元阶段性走强，使金价自 区间上沿回落；月下旬政策口径再度转向温和，市场对 2025年12 月降息的定价进一步上行，叠加全球 风险偏好波动，金价呈现修复态势。 东吴证券判断，后续在政策预期配合下突破区间上沿并伴随成交量放大，将增强中期上行动能；若美元 指数阶段性反弹，则可能推动金价再度测试下方支撑带。 西南证券近日发布研报认为，在财政主导初期，美国的财政风险溢价主要通过黄金的极致上涨进行定 价，黄金的飙升实质上映射了隐含实际利率的深度下行。中信建投证 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is likely to remain in a fluctuating but strong pattern in the short term, with pressures above and support below [2][10][13] - Key pressures include weak domestic economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas markets, potential profit-locking by institutions, insufficient willingness of incremental capital to enter, and significant selling pressure near the 4000-point mark [2][10][11] - Support factors include marginal improvements in the domestic economy, expectations for important policy meetings, and a continued loose monetary policy [3][11][12] Market Overview - On the previous Tuesday, the three major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced a downward trend, failing to continue the recovery from the previous week, with a general decline across the market and reduced trading volume [2][5][10] - The total trading volume on that day was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of effective market entry momentum [2][10][12] Sector Analysis - The shipbuilding and military sectors showed strong activity, with previous recommendations highlighting investment opportunities in this area, which has outperformed the broader market in recent years [7][10] - Consumer stocks, including tourism, food and beverage, and retail, also saw gains, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption [8][9] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "sector rotation, fluctuating but strong" characteristic, with the need for more effective stimulus to break the current deadlock [3][11][12] - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, adopting strategies such as balanced allocation and high sell-low buy, particularly in sectors with strong performance support [4][12]

2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global copper prices have reached a historical high, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark three-month copper rising to $11,294.5 per ton, driven primarily by supply shortages [1]. Group 1: Supply Factors - Major copper-producing countries, such as Chile, have underperformed in production this year, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper output and low levels of imports for intermediate products like scrap copper and anode copper [1]. - The overall copper inventory in both domestic and international exchanges is on a downward trend, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting low copper stock levels that continue to decrease [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut in December is influencing market sentiment, although the real estate sector is experiencing a downturn [2]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has emphasized strict control over smelting capacity, advocating for a 10% reduction in copper concentrate smelting capacity to balance supply and demand [2]. - Despite the fourth quarter showing lower-than-expected consumption and an increase in COMEX copper inventory, the LME inventory remains under pressure, indicating a complex market dynamic [2].