Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

英镑/美元的走势也受到了国际贸易紧张局势的影响。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布自2月1日起对多个欧 洲国家的商品征收10%的关税，直到美国能够购买格陵兰。这一言论引发了欧盟的强烈反应，欧盟大使 表示将加强努力应对这些关税，并准备在必要时进行报复。 这场由格陵兰问题引发的贸易争议，虽然看似离汇市较远，但实际上却加剧了美元的压力。美元受到国 际贸易紧张局势的影响，面临着一定的不确定性。由于市场对这种不确定性的反应，美元可能会面临一 定的下行风险，从而为英镑提供了上行动力。 虽然国际贸易局势对美元构成一定压力，但美国经济数据尤其是劳动力市场的表现可能会对美元产生支 撑。美国劳动力市场数据进一步表明，虽然经济增速有所放缓，但仍然保持较为强劲的表现。美联储官 员也表示，在没有更明确的通胀证据之前，进一步降息的迫切性有限。这样的表态可能会推迟市场对美 联储降息的预期，尤其是将降息时间从1月和4月推迟至6月和9月。 摩根士丹利的分析师调整了对2026年的预期，认为美联储将在6月进行一次降息，随后在9月再降一次， 而此前的预期是早在1月和4月就会降息。这一调整使得美元面临的降息压力减轻，有可能让美元保持相 对稳定，甚至小幅走强。 ...

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d(AU(t+d))于2026年1月20日收盘报1047.60元/克，日内上涨0.69%，最高触及1048.50元/克，站稳 1040元/克关键支撑，延续强势上行趋势。日线级别呈现多头排列，价格持续运行于布林带上轨， MACD红柱稳定放大，RSI维持在67附近，未现超买钝化，量能温和放大，确认趋势动能坚实。驱动因 素包括国际金价突破4670美元/盎司、全球央行持续购金(2026年预期购金超950吨)、美联储降息预期强 化及地缘风险升温。短期支撑位1040–1042元/克，阻力位上看1050–1055元/克，突破后有望挑战1060元/ 克心理关口。 【要闻速递】 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日在达沃斯论坛会见美国国会两党代表团时强调，美方须明确尊重格陵兰岛 和丹麦主权，此为跨大西洋关系关键。她表示欧盟愿继续与美、北约及盟友在丹麦合作下推进共同安全 利益，并指出加征关税与欧美经贸共同利益相悖。 摘要今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1045元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报1045.18 元/克，涨幅0.46%，最高触及1048.50元/克，最低下探1042.74 ...

国际金价一夜冲破4690美元/盎司，国内金饰克价飙至1451元，一枚吊坠单日溢价近2万元；白银更凶猛，单日暴涨超5%，站上94.7美元，50天狂涨82%！金 银比价腰斩至13年最低，市场彻底沸腾。 当金银不再是保值符号， 此轮暴涨并非炒作，而是地缘冲突、美联储降息预期与工业需求三重风暴叠加：中东紧张、特朗普关税战推高避险情绪；光伏与新能源车疯狂"吃银"，全球 库存仅够支撑月余；各国央行连续18个月增持黄金，中国、印度大举扫货，伦敦现货逼空上演。 而成了心跳加速器， 理性，才是最后的避险资产。 消费端哀鸿遍野：婚庆"三金"成本翻倍，新人改租金饰；银饰价格翻番，网友悔叹"早知不扔旧镯子"。投资圈则冰火两重天——囤金者年赚百万，杠杆炒银 者一日亏47万，银行紧急抽贷警示风险。 机构分歧加剧：瑞银看高黄金至5000美元，高盛却预警白银或回调20%。专家疾呼：普通人勿追高，金饰选水贝加工，投资限配ETF，白银波动堪比过山 车，1980年暴跌80%的血泪史犹在眼前。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-20 美欧关税担忧升温，⾦银价格再创新⾼ 央视新闻报导，特朗普威胁对⼋个反对其收购格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家征 收关税；市场对欧洲发起关税反制的预期升温，推升贵⾦属避险需求⾛ 强，⽇内⾦银价格双双创历史新⾼。美欧关税忧虑持续发酵与地缘⻛险交 织下，短期⻩⾦或震荡偏强运⾏。⽩银受美欧关税担忧、及关键矿产关税 暂缓等多重影响，短期或⾼位震荡、警惕波动率⾼位回落⻛险。 黄金观点： 逻辑：受美欧关税升级担忧提振避险需求，万得数据显示，日内纽约 金价一度触及4698美元/盎司的新高。万得和CME数据显示，近期美国 公布的就业、零售及通胀等数据表现韧性，年内美联储降息预期推迟 至6月；而美欧关税冲突持续发酵，预计金价短线震荡偏强。短期需 关注1月20日美国最高法院对特朗普关税案裁决、1月22日将公布的 11月核心PCE数据和GDP数据、及1月下旬联储新主席提名等。 展望：黄金中长期上涨驱动不改。 白银观点： 逻辑：银价强势上涨，万得数据显示，日内纽约银价涨幅近6%，SHFE 银价涨幅近5%，受特朗普威胁对欧洲八国加征关税、及欧洲反制情 ...

日线图上，上周黄金冲高遇阻后，走势高位震荡调整，本周一金价再创历史新高，短期表现强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关 注周一黄金冲高遇阻后的回落低点4652美元，其次周一黄金跳空高开时的回落低点4618美元，这里也是当前5日均线位置； 黄金上方压力，主要关注周一创造的历史高点4690美元，若向上突破，关注日线布林带上轨位置4730美元附近。5日均线与 MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ指标金叉向上，RSI指标金叉小幅下拐，短期技术面显示多方占优，黄金存在进一步上涨的可 能。 黄金日内参考：美国夺取格陵兰岛，不给就加征关税，市场避险情绪快速升温，对黄金上涨形成重要支撑。操作上建议震 荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4652美元，其次4618美元，上方压力关注4690美元，其次4730美元。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，上周黄金再创历史新高后，我们认为美联储降息预期、地缘紧张局势与央行强劲买盘， 仍对黄金形成重要支撑，此后金价虽然遇阻调整，但回落十分有限，到了本周一，黄金继续上涨，再创历史新高，地缘风 险是推动金价冲高的重要原因。具体来看，美国图谋格陵兰岛的风波在近期持续升级，上周末美国总统特朗普公布了其夺 取格陵兰岛控制 ...

中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/ 10-0920 China Futures Daily Note 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's GDP Surpassed 140 Trillion Yuan in 2025, Growing by 5.0%。 Futures ...

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2026年01月19日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近一周，资本市场在波动中前行，走势再次出现分化。海外，地缘局势紧张依旧，关注的焦点在中东在伊朗，同时，美国染指格陵兰岛的 意图愈加明显，一触即发的火药味提振投资者的避险情绪，黄金再创历史新高。然而美股却对地缘局势脱敏，投资者更为关注企业的财报，VIX 指数大幅反弹，风险资产多数上扬。全球股市普遍收高，大宗商品走势分化，A股震荡分化，BDI指数大幅回落。美元重拾涨势，人民币稳韧强劲。 大宗商品分化再现，贵金属王者归来，有色延续强势，黑色转跌，小幅反弹，农产品整体延续弱势。 国内债市悉数反弹、股指涨跌互现走势分化，商品大类板块重拾分化；股市涨势放缓回调分化，成长型风格表现仍旧强于价值型，中证500 与1000双双收涨，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices coincided with an unexpected outage at the CME, leading to speculation about whether silver represents a risk or will continue to command a premium. The key lies in distinguishing between short-term disruptions and long-term trends [1]. Market Status: Why is Silver "Soaring"? - The recent increase in silver prices is driven by a combination of macro-financial conditions and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics [3]. Macroeconomic Drivers: Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Sentiment - Core Factor: The market's rapidly rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are the primary driver behind the increase in all precious metal prices [4]. - Market Expectations: The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged from approximately 44% in mid-November to over 87% [4]. - Direct Impact: The expectation of rate cuts leads to a decline in real interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, attracting significant capital inflows [4]. Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Historic Shortage and "Short Squeeze" Risk - Unlike gold, silver has strong industrial demand, and the current supply-demand imbalance is pronounced [4]. - Ongoing Shortage: The global silver market has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with increasing demand from green industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - Inventory Depletion: Silver inventories at major global exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory at its lowest since 2015 and the LBMA's deliverable inventory significantly reduced from its 2020 peak [5]. - Market Structure: Extremely low inventories have created a tight spot market, leading to soaring lease rates. The futures market shows a clear "backwardation" structure, indicating a typical short squeeze signal, where shorts face significant physical delivery pressure, potentially forcing them to cover positions and further drive up prices [5]. CME Outage: "Conspiracy" or Coincidence? - The CME's data center outage due to cooling system failure for over 10 hours has been linked to the surge in silver prices, with some speculating it was a protective measure for shorts. However, it is more likely a coincidental technical event that amplified short-term volatility [7]. - Event Details: The outage was caused by a failure in the cooling system, leading to server overheating. The CME and its operators have since repaired and restored services [7]. - Market Impact: The outage occurred after the Thanksgiving holiday, when market liquidity was already low. Upon reopening, COMEX silver futures surged approximately 6% within six minutes, primarily due to the release of accumulated orders during the outage and the inability of some hedging positions to operate in time, exacerbating price volatility [7]. - Conclusion: There is no evidence to suggest this was a targeted market intervention; rather, it acted as a catalyst for price fluctuations in an already tense market environment [7]. Risks and Opportunities: Where Will Silver Go? - The future trajectory of silver will depend on whether the driving factors can be sustained and how risks evolve [9]. Long-term Logic Supporting Continued Premium - Monetary Attributes Support: The global high debt and geopolitical cycles, along with major central banks' gold purchases and concerns over fiat currencies, form a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in precious metals [10]. - Industrial Attributes Strengthening: As a critical material for photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, silver's strategic resource status is increasingly prominent, indicating long-term demand growth [10]. - Valuation Recovery Potential: The current gold-silver ratio (gold price/silver price) remains around 85, significantly higher than the historical average of 60-70 over the past decades. Historically, extreme gold-silver ratios tend to revert to the mean through silver's price appreciation [10]. Short-term Risks to Watch - Trading Crowding and Profit-Taking: Silver has nearly doubled in price this year, creating substantial profit-taking potential. The holding structure has shifted from "short-dominated" to "long-dominated," and any shift in sentiment could trigger profit-taking and lead to sharp corrections [11]. - Macroeconomic Expectation Fluctuations: The market has heavily priced in rate cut expectations. If future U.S. inflation or employment data exceeds expectations, it could temper rate cut expectations and negatively impact silver prices [11]. - "Short Squeeze" Easing Risks: The current extreme low inventories and short squeeze conditions cannot persist indefinitely. If inventories show signs of recovery or futures contracts transition smoothly, the price premium driven by delivery pressures may quickly dissipate [11]. Summary - Overall, the current silver market's core contradiction lies in the coexistence of long-term strategic bullish logic and short-term high prices and volatility risks. Long-term trends include expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, structural supply deficits in the global silver market, and its irreplaceable industrial demand in emerging industries, all supporting a higher price center for silver. Its valuation advantage relative to gold also indicates potential for further appreciation [12]. Short-term risks include the rapid price increase through "short squeeze" dynamics, which has exhausted many short-term positives, making the market highly sensitive to any changes in macro data, profit-taking, or inventory improvements [12].