Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon, palm oil [1] - Neutral: Iron ore, silicon iron, glass, etc. [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, with significant price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the opportunities for low - level long positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential after adjustment. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Commodity Markets Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The industry has limited industrial drivers, with aluminum prices fluctuating widely at high levels. The production and inventory of domestic alumina continue to increase, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although there is a short - term price rebound, the upward drive is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: The short - term macro - positive factors have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. However, the zinc price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to low - level long opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has been oscillating after a decline with increasing positions. If the macro - situation improves or supply - side disturbances increase, there will be a demand for position reduction and repair. Short - term operations are recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will remain in surplus [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The black sector has declined due to various factors, but coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization after the announcement of the steel export licensing system. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have shown signs of stabilization after the "bad news is out". Attention should be paid to the spot situation and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is bearish. The USDA report has no highlights, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new - crop cotton has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bullish. The成交 of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].

话说天下大势分久必合合久必分，市场也是相同的道理。遥想11月指数突破4000点之际，无数投资者欢欣鼓舞。而如今退守3800各路人马反而乱了阵脚。 技术派大师掐指一算：此乃"二次回踩"，学名"寻找市场底"，通俗点叫"给大家一次重新投胎的机会"。价值派老炮拍桌：估值已比前任还低，再跌就只能按 斤称了！情绪派散户直接躺平：别问，问就是"爱情转移"，把牛市的爱转去存款。 上证指数回撤至20日均线附近 但别忘了，如今北向资金成交占比连一成都没有，套息盘规模小到可以用放大镜找，所谓"外资大逃亡"纯属自己加戏——充其量是一只惊弓之鸟，扑棱两下 翅膀，把树下的散户吓得抱头鼠窜。 首先，先搞懂为啥跌：这波调整不是"基本面塌了"，而是"多重误会叠加的情绪宣泄"。 日本加息的"背锅侠效应" 上周外媒一句"日银或于12月加息至0.75%"，瞬间把全球避险雷达拉满，部分套息资金脚底抹油，日元涨、人民币抖，A股也跟着"膝盖软"。 2、小票"退烧"现场 前11个月狂飙的微盘股指数，12月不到半月就回撤6%+，ST板块更是跌停开会，远看像烟花，近看像火灾。为啥？年末基金经理要"结账"，游资要"换钞"， 盈利盘要"落袋"，三方合力，直接把"小 ...

Group 1 - The yield of "baby" funds has been declining throughout the year, with the median seven-day annualized yield of 941 money market funds at 1.24% as of December 16, and 102 funds falling below 1% [1] - Tianhong Yu'ebao, the largest money market fund, maintained a yield above 1%, at 1.014% as of December 16, despite a previous drop to 1.001% [1] - The fund manager indicated that the phenomenon of deposit migration has impacted banks' management of funds, increasing friction in fund flow and leading to a decrease in the supply of base currency in the money market, which has heightened volatility in interest rates [1] Group 2 - Despite the long-term downward trend in money market fund yields, the total share of money market funds increased to 15.05 trillion units by the end of October, up over 38 million units from the end of September [2] - Key reasons for the changes in money market fund yields include a downward shift in the risk-free interest rate, which has caused yields on bank deposits and bond repos to decline, and a liquidity surplus leading to an asset shortage [2] - Funds have had to control risks by reducing leverage and shortening duration, further dragging down yield performance [2]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown weak performance recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.1% on December 16, marking a cumulative decline of 2.5% over the past six trading days [2] - The market is experiencing a broad decline, with over 4,000 listed companies falling, while the trading volume on December 16 was 1.75 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day [2] - The sectors performing well include retail, beauty care, and social services, while telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment saw the largest declines [2] Group 2 - Both internal and external factors have contributed to a temporary decline in market risk appetite, with external factors playing a dominant role. The recent FOMC meeting indicated a neutral to hawkish stance, with expectations of only one rate cut by 2026, raising concerns about liquidity [3] - Domestic economic data for November showed a continued slowdown compared to October, with significant declines in fixed asset investment and retail consumption growth, leading to increased market focus on fundamental data [3] Group 3 - The underlying logic for market growth remains intact, with a positive mid-term trend expected through 2026. The macro policy shift since last year has changed investor sentiment, providing a stable foundation for market recovery [4] - The fundamental drivers of the current market rally include the restructuring of the international monetary order and advancements in industrial innovation, both of which have not been disrupted [4] Group 4 - The current market pullback may offer good positioning opportunities for the first half of 2026, as overall valuations in the A-share market remain attractive compared to global peers and major asset classes [5] - Suggested investment strategies include focusing on growth styles during market corrections, with three main lines of focus: 1) sectors experiencing growth such as AI technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, 2) companies benefiting from overseas expansion, and 3) cyclical sectors nearing improvement points [5][6]

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年大类资产在"叙事抱团"下，呈现新老资产极致分化。全年来看，黄金领涨大类资产，位于风险收益比顶端。全球股强债弱，股市新兴强于发达。商品 中有色亮眼，显著领跑黑色与原油。从资产轮动来看，上半年反复反转，下半年持续单边。简单的多资产年度再平衡策略（非买入持有）虽连续第三年正收益，但 在大类资产排序中明显落后于多数股市表现，仅高于中美债券、美元与原油。2025年趋势跟踪策略（CTA）表现持续优于均值回归策略。临近岁末，前期强叙事资 产的赔率多数走窄，叙事交易的"阿喀琉斯之踵"似有浮现，而这是2026年与2025年资产截然不同的起点。 第二， 2025年的资产轮动框架亦不同于以往。经典框架里，无论是理论视角的美林时钟、普林格时钟，还是实证领域的检验（Beber, Brandt & Kavajecz, 2010； Goulding, C. L., 2023），均指向资产轮动与经济周期密切相关。2025年全球宏观环境变化较大，"叙事交易"具备短期难以证伪的胜率预期，改变了大类资产与经 济周期"四 ...

近期，受内外部扰动因素影响，市场情绪趋于谨慎。从外部环境看，上周五（25/12/12）美股科技板块 普遍调整，或再次引发市场对AI泡沫与算力基建前景的担忧，调整情绪传导至A股进一步压制了市场风 险偏好。从内部数据看，2025年11月社会消费品零售总额同比增速有所放缓，或反映出当前内需复苏基 础尚需巩固。在此背景下，红利类资产则凭借其较低波动性和较高盈利确定性有望成为资金进行风险防 御的重要工具。（数据来源：Bloomberg、国家统计局，发布于25/12/15） 资金流向数据显示，红利类主题ETF标杆品种红利低波ETF（512890）2025年四季度以来（25/10/9- 25/12/15）获资金净流入态势明显，48个交易日中有35个交易日实现资金净流入，区间累计吸金45.99亿 元，是同期市场上所有红利类主题ETF中仅有的区间资金净流入超40亿元的产品。在近期市场整体缩量 震荡的背景下，具备一定韧性的红利低波ETF（512890）连续4个交易日（25/12/10-12/15）合计获5.24 亿元资金加仓，成为资金的重点配置方向之一；从成交活跃度看，同期日均成交额达5.70亿元，较今年 以来（25/1/2-2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Congo Tin [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Styrene, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silver, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Steam, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1][2] Core Views - Two major domestic meetings have concluded, releasing limited incremental information. In the short term, be wary of the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the implementation of meeting policies. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside. Market sentiment has been fluctuating, with increased price volatility. Look for opportunities to buy at low levels [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock Index: Be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are a constraint [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers, but fluctuating risk appetite leads to wide - range high - level oscillations [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental outlook. Some short - sellers are leaving the market, causing a price rebound, but the upward momentum is limited [1] - Zinc: Short - term macro benefits have been digested. Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward, with an expected short - term bullish trend [1] - Nickel: Macro sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and Indonesia's 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval. Global nickel inventories are high, and short - term prices may decline in a volatile manner [1] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment is volatile. Pay attention to policies and production. Raw - material nickel prices are falling, and futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Tin: Due to the tense situation in Congo, it is considered bullish in the long term. Look for opportunities to buy on dips [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and have long - term upward potential [1] - Silver: Prices are highly volatile and may oscillate widely in the short term [1] - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and long - term buying on dips is recommended [1] - Palladium: May follow platinum's strength in the short term. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while Southwest production is decreasing. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon are decreasing [1] - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, supply is increasing, and there is significant pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Futures - spot arbitrage positions can take rolling profits. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, leaving room for upward movement in far - month contracts [1] - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1] - Ferrosilicon: Similar to manganese silicon, prices are under pressure [1] - Glass: Supply - demand is supportive, valuation is low, and prices are fluctuating upward [1] - Soda Ash: Follows the trend of glass. Supply - demand is okay, valuation is low, and downward space is limited [1] - Coking Coal: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to downstream winter - storage replenishment [1] - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data is negative, and short - selling is recommended [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is likely over, and selling the 05 contract is advised [1] - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Pay attention to future policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices fall further, cost support will be strong, but there is a lack of continuous short - term drivers [1] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand mismatch in the spot market has eased but not fully resolved. Pay attention to sales progress and inventory changes [1] - Soybean Meal: Domestic near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Pay attention to oil - mill operations and South American weather [1] - Pulp: Futures prices are affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see on one - sided trading and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - Logs: Affected by falling external prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Pork: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1] - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference is low, and intermediate inventory may start to accumulate [1] - BR Rubber: Trading volume has improved, and export support exists. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but long - term tire demand is increasing [1] - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and consumption is stable. The cost is high, and the profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, and prices are falling. Coal prices are dropping, weakening the cost support [1] - Short Fiber: Prices closely follow the cost [1] - Styrene: Cost support is weak, production profitability is negative, and inventory has not significantly decreased [1] - Steam: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upside. There is support from the cost side [1] - Propylene: The monomer price is high, providing cost support. The oil - based cost is decreasing due to falling crude - oil prices [1] - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1] - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants are delaying production, and there is pressure to accumulate inventory in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the market is returning to a loose supply - demand situation. The PG price is oscillating within a range [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Platinum [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping [1][2] Core Views - In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. There is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as industrial drivers, risk preferences, and macro - policies, showing different trends of high - level volatility, short - term rebound with limited upward drive, and short - term shock - strengthening [1]. - Precious metals have different short - and long - term trends, with some having short - term shocks and long - term upward potential, and some being recommended to wait and see [1]. - New energy - related products are affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term pressure [1]. - Black metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - drivers, supply - demand, and inventory, and some products have opportunities for basis positive - spread positions [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as reports, policies, and supply - demand, and different products have different trends and investment suggestions [1]. - Energy - chemical product prices are affected by factors such as international agreements, supply - demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The market sentiment is fluctuating recently, and there is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Industrial drivers are limited, and risk preferences are fluctuating. The aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level. Domestic alumina production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Some short - positions are closed in the short - term, and the price rebounds, but the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro - benefits have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and it is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to the changes in domestic growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. Global nickel inventory is still high. The nickel price may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to position changes and macro - sentiment. The cost of integrated MHP provides support below. Operate mainly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will be in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. The price of raw - material ferronickel has temporarily stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the estimated production cut by steel mills in December has increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. The raw - material price has stabilized, and steel mills have raised prices. The stainless - steel futures are oscillating. It is recommended to operate mainly in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies for hedging [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. Tin is still regarded as bullish in the long - term. Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: It has fallen after reaching a high. The gold price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, but there is still upward space in the long - term [1]. - Silver: It has fallen after reaching a high, with sharp fluctuations. The silver price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Platinum: The platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term [1]. - Palladium: The palladium price is expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. From the perspective of the relative strength of the fundamentals, the “long platinum, short palladium” arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles. Energy - storage demand is strong. Supply - side production resumption has increased. There is great pressure at the key level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and can appropriately participate in spot - futures positions [1]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and the spot - futures positive - spread positions can still be continuously participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month contract [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass. The supply - demand situation is okay, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Coke: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is likely to be near the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a drive perspective, it may need to wait. Downstream is expected to start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, treat single - side trading with a short - term mindset for now, and wait and see for the long - term. Close out hedging short - positions [1]. - Coking Coal: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is bearish, but the German RED III policy is bullish for origin exports. The night - session shows a rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report has no highlights. Recently, pay attention to the bearish impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the news of the return of imported non - GMO rapeseed oil, the supply of rapeseed oil has become relatively tight, and there is an expectation of a rebound [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream opening rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the cotton demand in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of “having support but no drive”. In the future, pay attention to the setting of direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The bearish consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: In the short - term, funds are taking profits, and the futures price is giving back the emotional premium, but the spot contradiction has not been completely resolved. The short - term decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. Still, pay attention to changes in farmers' grain - selling mentality and inventory at each link [1]. - Soybean Meal: There are rumors of delayed customs clearance in China. Today, the成交率 and成交 premium of domestic imported soybean auctions are high, reflecting the market's expectation of commercial shortages, which is bullish for the near - month contract and positive spreads. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious speculation drive for South American weather, and the Brazilian discount is expected to be under pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Pulp: Pulp futures have been fluctuating greatly recently, being pulled by the reality of “weak demand” and the expectation of “strong supply”. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - Log: Log futures have fallen due to the negative impact of falling foreign - market quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted. The US has intensified a new round of sanctions against Russia. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for catch - up construction during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support. The futures - spot price difference is at a low level. The mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1]. - BR Rubber: The trading of butadiene has improved, the ex - tank price has increased, and there is bullish support on the export side. The listed price of major producers of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has stabilized, and the ex - factory price of private enterprises has increased. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but the long - term demand for tires at home and abroad is increasing. Pay attention to the export situation of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX cost is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is accumulating, and the price is falling accordingly. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning is suppressing the rise of ethylene glycol [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: The styrene market as a whole maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Discussions about exports provide some support, but the polymer market sales are weak. US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has declined, and the price of high - octane components has declined [1]. - Urea: The number of overhauls has decreased, and the operating load is at a high level. There are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - Propylene: The number of overhauls is small, and the operating load is relatively high. The supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, providing strong cost support. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - PVC: The futures price has returned to the fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, and new production capacity will be released, increasing the supply pressure. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [2]. - Caustic Soda: The pre - delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure for caustic soda in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The short - positions in the 01 contract have been rolled over to the March contract, and the shorts have not left the market [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. The FEI has recently rebounded and repaired upwards. The heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually being released, and there is support from chemical rigid demand. The production and sales of domestic C3/C4 are smooth, and there is no inventory pressure. After the decline in the PG futures price, it maintains a range - bound oscillation. Pay attention to the price increase of the near - month contract affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [2]. - Container Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected. The expectation of price increases in the peak season was priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [2].

1.2 银行理财机构规模结构 根据 Wind收录的银行理财定期披露数据， 头部机构产品布局分化显著，呈现"固收为主、特色补充"的特 点： ● 固收+型 ：规模16.23万亿元，环比增长0.49%，连续4个月稳步上升，占比超50%，反映理财机构通 过"固收+"策略增强收益的核心定位； ● 纯债固收型 ：规模4.45万亿元，环比微增0.35%，增速放缓，主要受债券市场信用利差收窄、性价比下 降影响； ● 现金管理型 ：规模6.24万亿元，环比增长0.30%，增速趋稳，仍是居民流动性管理的重要工具； ● 权益类 ：规模100.94亿元，环比增长13.9%，为年内最大单月增幅，或与部分机构增配含权资产、布局 市场底部机会有关； ● 混合类产品 ：偏债混合、灵活配置混合规模分别为2,461亿元、4,105亿元，环比基本持平，受股市短期 回撤影响，配置节奏相对谨慎。 表：2025年8-11月银行理财产品存续规模（亿元） | 发行机构 | | 固收+型 纯债固收型 | 现金管理型 | | 偏债混合型 灵活配置混合型 | 权益类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...