Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's main glass contract has increased by over 6%, currently priced at 1,048 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The main glass contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has seen a significant price increase, indicating strong market demand or potential supply constraints [1]

广期所多晶硅主力合约涨幅扩大至6%，现报34750元/吨。 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/02 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3349.00 36.51 1350.00 1134.00 65.45 9966.50 变化 61.55 0.53 17.00 15.00 0.34 89.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 - - - - - 变化 - - - - - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1338.84 | 948.23 | 14869.01 | 1357.85 | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 39.08 | -4.30 | 42.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, after the sharp drop in oil prices, it has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures market follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's fundamental situation has weakened month - on - month, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost - end in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of polyester load [5]. - For MEG, at the beginning of July, the arrival of foreign ships is concentrated, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The supply at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol will turn to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been continuously increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually carry out maintenance, and the polyester load will decrease. Although the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants will boost market sentiment, the overall upward trend lacks sustainability, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the PTA futures rebounded after a decline. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, with few bids, and the spot basis weakened rapidly. The current week and next week's goods were traded around 09 + 160 - 200, with the price negotiation range around 4930 - 5020. There were transactions for mid - to - late July goods at 09 + 160. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 175 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4990, the 09 - contract basis is 252, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days month - on - month, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, which is a bullish signal [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol market was weakly volatile, and the spot basis strengthened. In the late session, affected by the power - related shutdown of a Saudi Arabian plant, the market buying increased, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol was consolidating within a narrow range. Recent shipments were negotiated at 506 - 508 US dollars/ton, and there were more purchases by traders at low prices [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4328, the 09 - contract basis is 68, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons month - on - month, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, production, supply, and demand have all shown certain changes. For example, in 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the production and supply have also changed accordingly. The demand from the polyester industry has also shown a fluctuating trend [10]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the overall operating rate, production, and supply of ethylene glycol have changed. The demand from the polyester industry has also shown a certain trend, and the port inventory has also fluctuated [12]. Price - Related Data - The report provides historical data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis, and spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21]. Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products in different regions and time periods from 2020 to 2025 [40][42][45]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - It shows the historical operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. Profit Analysis - It includes the production margins of PTA, MEG (in different production methods), polyester fiber short - fibers, and polyester fiber long - fibers from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/1 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2280 4 0.18% 13,931 -30.94% 115,285 0.96% 2304 0 0.00% 2,522 -41.03% 18,817 2.24% 2383 5 0.21% 426,304 -12.30% 942,750 -2.86% 2678 5 0.19% 2,056 213.41% 5,028 10.14% 2698 7 0.26% 52 -30.77% 221 6.25% 2743 10 0.36% 107,836 -11.75% 156,387 -0.32% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2300 2090 2550 2490 2400 2510 2470 10 0 -12 -40 10 0 0 -83 -293 167 107 17 127 87 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2800 2850 2850 3020 2950 2980 2960 0 50 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to trigger significant market movements, particularly in commodity futures, with a focus on how to anticipate these changes [1] Group 1 - The event will feature a deep analysis of popular commodity futures by a seasoned researcher, Leo [1] - The session will include practical examples of order flow, volume-price distribution, and capital bomb case studies to help participants identify trading opportunities [1] - The live broadcast aims to equip participants with tools for monitoring futures markets effectively [1]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 282 350 267 350 -1173 日度变化 0 -35 -20 -30 0 -15 -37 0 0 0 -50 3 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘 ...

| | | 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/01 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3271.75 | 35.98 | 1333.00 | 1119.00 | 65.52 | 9877.50 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -59.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 | -16.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 97.26 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 144.64 | 2.00 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. natural gas futures, which dropped by 6.00%, currently priced at $3.512 per million British thermal units [1] Group 1 - U.S. natural gas futures experienced a notable decrease of 6.00% in a single trading session [1] - The current price of natural gas futures stands at $3.512 per million British thermal units [1]