每经AI快讯，1月12日，中信证券研报指出，1月9日，财政部、税务总局公告调整电池产品出口退税政 策。我们认为，本次政策是国家坚定推进"反内卷"、防止"内卷外化"的具体举措，政策连续性较强。从 影响来看，对于短期政策设置退税税率梯度式下降和过渡期的安排，企业可通过电池价格调整对冲影 响，同时海外需求有望迎来抢出口局面；中长期来看，在海外拥有电池产能的中国头部电池企业有望进 一步提升全球竞争力、获取更多的海外市场份额和更高的盈利水平。继续推荐中国头部电池企业。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11] Core Insights - The 2026 National Civil Aviation Work Conference outlines a strategic plan for the aviation sector, emphasizing a shift from recovery to high-quality development, with a focus on reducing internal competition and improving pricing regulations [6][40] - The report highlights significant growth in the aviation sector, with a projected increase in passenger transport volume to 810 million in 2026, representing a 5% year-on-year growth [40] - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from Alibaba's increased investment in instant retail, particularly for SF Express and Same City, which are positioned to capture a growing share of the market [7][49] Summary by Sections Civil Aviation - The conference reviewed the achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, noting that China has become the world's largest aviation population with over 500 million people [20] - For 2026, the focus will be on high-level openness and clearer allocation of international air rights, alongside measures to curb excessive competition [25][40] - The report suggests investment opportunities in major airlines such as Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, China Xinhua Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines due to expected improvements in revenue [6][40] Logistics - Alibaba's strategy for Taobao Flash Purchase aims for market share growth, with a focus on high-value users and retail categories, which is expected to drive significant order volume increases for SF Express [7][49] - SF Express Same City has seen a 55% year-on-year increase in daily order volume during the New Year period, indicating strong demand in the instant retail sector [53] - The report anticipates that SF Express will improve its profitability in Q4 2025 as it shifts focus to high-value services and reduces discounts on capacity [55] Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger volume has shown a 3% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume has increased by 5% [58] - The average load factor for domestic flights has improved by 2.1 percentage points, and for international flights, it has increased by 3.3 percentage points [66] - The report notes a decline in oil prices, which is expected to positively impact operational costs for airlines [66] Maritime Transport - The report indicates a stabilization in oil shipping rates, with VLCC-TCE rates rising by 50.3% to $60,000 per day [9] - The container shipping index has seen a slight decline, but rates for routes to Europe and the US continue to rise due to seasonal demand [9]

Group 1 - The recent improvement in market liquidity has driven the A-share market's rise, with a notable increase in margin trading balance by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume [2][8] - Historical data indicates that similar market conditions have occurred six times in the past decade, with a high probability of continued strength in the A-share market over the next 10, 20, and 250 trading days following such volume increases [9][12] - However, there are signs of structural overheating, particularly in the commercial aerospace index, which has seen a significant increase in turnover rate and trading volume share, indicating a need for fundamental support for such rapid trading concentration [2][9] Group 2 - The negative impact of AI on the U.S. employment market is becoming evident, with December's non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and a cumulative reduction of 340,000 jobs in sectors heavily affected by AI [3][15] - The ongoing concerns about a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve are alleviating fears of a second inflation wave, benefiting commodity prices as the demand-supply gap becomes more pronounced [3][23] - The geopolitical tensions are altering inventory behaviors among market participants, leading to increased stockpiling and a significant rise in copper and silver inventories since 2025 [24][27] Group 3 - Domestic policies aimed at reducing "involution" are being implemented, with industrial PPI showing a positive trend, indicating a shift from price drag to support for corporate revenues [4][35] - The recent regulatory focus on the photovoltaic industry has raised concerns about the commitment to anti-involution policies, but the overall direction remains focused on improving corporate profitability through reasonable policy guidance [4][40] - The market is expected to see improvements in corporate earnings as the anti-involution policies take effect, with a focus on preventing monopolistic practices while fostering innovation [4][42] Group 4 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the ongoing liquidity improvements and fundamental changes will drive future performance [5][43] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery [5][43]

Group 1 - The AI and related industries are the most anticipated sectors for investment opportunities in 2026, with a focus on application implementation to drive sustained capital expenditure [1][2] - The "domestic substitution" trend is expected to be a significant investment theme for the next five years, leveraging China's core advantage in efficiently transforming technology into productivity [1][2] - The chemical industry is viewed positively due to its healthy competitive landscape, featuring both quality state-owned and private enterprises, as well as international chemical giants focused on the Chinese market [3] Group 2 - The energy storage sector is gaining attention, with expectations of recovery starting from the third or fourth quarter of 2025, alongside a favorable outlook for hydrogen energy, where China holds a leading position in production [2] - The aerospace sector is identified as a critical area for future competition, with numerous commercial opportunities in the Chinese market [2] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to create new market opportunities, particularly in industries facing price pressures, such as construction, new energy, and electronics [2][3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving carbon peak targets by 2030, necessitating clear carbon accounting standards to facilitate effective international trade coordination [3] - The expansion of carbon markets and the differentiation of electricity markets, with a clear value distinction between green and non-green electricity, are expected to drive the marketization and application of green energy [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a positive trend with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline and positive price changes in certain industries [1] - The rise in CPI and PPI reflects a reasonable recovery in price operations, signaling economic recovery, increased demand, and enhanced corporate vitality [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating improved market dynamics and corporate development [2] - The positive PPI trend alleviates concerns about continuous industrial profit contraction, suggesting that stable prices can lead to positive feedback in investment, employment, and credit [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus will be on balancing price stability and industrial transformation, with macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing supply and enhancing corporate competitiveness [2]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 将取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 20260111 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to address the "involution" in the food delivery industry, as highlighted by the central government's focus on expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and combating involution in the economy [5][6]. Group 1: Market Saturation and Competition - The food delivery market in China is nearing saturation, with online food delivery users reaching 592 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 53.4% of the total internet users [8][10]. - The competition in the food delivery sector has shifted to a zero-sum game, where growth is no longer driven by increased demand but rather by existing market share [8][11]. Group 2: Impact on Stakeholders - The ongoing price wars have not benefited any stakeholders in the food delivery ecosystem. Merchants have seen a rise in order volume but a decline in actual revenue, with a reported average decrease of 4% in daily revenue despite a 7% increase in total orders since July 2025 [12][15]. - Delivery riders are also facing increased workloads without corresponding income growth, leading to a significant drop in average monthly earnings [13][15]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The government has initiated investigations into the chaotic competition in the food delivery market, indicating a serious approach to curbing involution and ensuring fair competition [6][20]. - Previous attempts to regulate the market through discussions with major platforms like Meituan and JD have had limited success, necessitating a more robust regulatory framework [16][18]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The article argues that the current trajectory of excessive marketing expenditures over long-term capital investments could undermine the long-term value of Chinese internet companies [21][27]. - The call for a shift from price wars to differentiated services and technological innovation is seen as essential for sustainable growth in the industry [27][25]. Group 5: Conclusion - The initiation of market investigations is viewed as a critical step towards meaningful reform in the food delivery sector, signaling the end of unsustainable competition driven by short-term gains [22][27]. - The article concludes that the future of the food delivery industry will depend on platforms' ability to adapt their strategies towards building a healthier ecosystem and enhancing core competitiveness [27][28].

Group 1 - Global stock markets, commodities, and credit markets have shown strong performance in the first trading week of 2026, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.6% to reach a historical high and the Russell 2000 small-cap index surging 4.6% [2] - The A-share market has also performed exceptionally well, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a "16 consecutive days of gains," with a single-day trading volume reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, marking the fifth highest in history [2][5] - The commodities market has seen significant movements, with oil experiencing its largest single-day increase since October of the previous year, silver rising 10% over the week, and gold nearing historical highs [2] Group 2 - Short-term liquidity is identified as a key factor driving asset prices, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion and fiscal account releases potentially bringing about approximately $600 billion in liquidity in the first quarter [3] - The market sentiment has shifted from defensive assets to cyclical stocks and high-risk varieties, supported by policies from the Trump administration [3] Group 3 - There is a noted disconnect between current optimistic sentiment and the underlying fundamentals, raising concerns about potential market volatility due to future expectation adjustments [4] - The A-share market's performance is characterized by a broad-based rally, with over 3900 stocks rising, indicating a healthier market structure compared to previous years [18] Group 4 - The significant increase in trading volume and financing balance suggests that new capital, particularly leveraged funds, is actively positioning for a new economic cycle rather than engaging in speculative behavior at market peaks [19][20] - The market is undergoing a healthy rotation of funds, with outflows concentrated in previously high-performing sectors while inflows are directed towards emerging sectors like media and home appliances [21][22] Group 5 - The current market environment is seen as a historical resonance point between "stock optimization" and "new capital entry," with domestic institutions actively reallocating assets while new capital is being attracted to the market [23] - The upcoming period is expected to maintain a favorable environment for bullish sentiment, supported by a friendly monetary environment and expectations of policy support ahead of important domestic meetings [26] Group 6 - Post-Spring Festival, the market is anticipated to transition into a highly structured value discovery process rather than a broad-based bull market, focusing on sectors that resonate with "global nominal growth" [27][28] - Key sectors include high-end manufacturing that can capture overseas capital expenditure needs, as well as traditional industries undergoing necessary adjustments that may present unexpected investment opportunities [30][32]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and A-Share Performance - The improvement in market liquidity has been a direct catalyst for the recent rise in A-shares, with margin trading balances increasing by over 125 billion yuan in just half a month, leading to a more than 35% increase in trading volume across the A-share market [3][13][22] - Historical data shows that similar situations, where the A-share market rose by nearly 10% over 16 trading days with trading volume expanding by over 30%, have occurred six times in the past decade, predominantly at the beginning of the year [3][18][22] - The recent surge in the commercial aerospace index has led to a significant increase in turnover rates and trading volume proportions, indicating a potential structural overheating in the market [3][22] Group 2: AI Impact on Employment and Economic Policy - The U.S. job market continues to face pressure, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs for October and November [4][26][33] - The adoption of AI by large U.S. companies has significantly suppressed employment growth, particularly in the information, finance, and professional services sectors, which have collectively lost 344,000 jobs over the past three years [4][26][33] - The Federal Reserve's extended rate-cutting cycle is expected to benefit commodity markets, as inflation concerns related to AI investments are easing [4][40][41] Group 3: Domestic Economic Recovery and Policy Optimization - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial enterprises in December showed a year-on-year increase, indicating a shift from price drag to price support for corporate revenues [5][56] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has also risen, with the core CPI maintaining its highest level in five years, reflecting a smoother transmission of prices from enterprises to consumers [5][56] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to enhance corporate profitability, with regulatory measures aimed at preventing monopolistic practices and promoting fair competition [5][62] Group 4: Rebalancing and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares, driven by improved liquidity and favorable domestic and international economic conditions [6][63] - Recommended investment areas include industrial resource products like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors benefiting from the recovery of domestic manufacturing and consumer spending [6][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in sectors such as aviation, duty-free, and food and beverage, which are expected to benefit from increased consumer income and tourism recovery [6][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to be in a mid - term sideways trend. Supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core driving forces of pressure. The price is supported by limited downside space and suppressed by supply surplus and glass industry cuts. The trading rhythm follows glass, with lower volatility [2][4]. - **Glass**: In the short term, it is weak; in the medium term, it is in a sideways trend, and over - bearish views are not advisable. The market will switch between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. The valuation factor will be crucial in the future [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - In the week, one float glass production line each in Southwest and Central China was shut down for cold repair, resulting in a week - on - week decline in production. As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to January 1st [5]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total of 9,370 tons, and potential cold - repair production lines have a total of 9,420 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [16]. Demand As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - decoration orders are mainly low - value single orders [6]. Inventory As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period [6]. Price and Profit - Market prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing increases. The price in Shahe is about 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton (up 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region is 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the prices of some large manufacturers are 1,110 - 1,250 yuan/ton (mostly stable, some slightly up 10 - 20 yuan/ton) [19][23]. - The profit with petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [28][32]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 400 in - production production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. As of Thursday this week, the sample inventory days were about 40.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.66%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.16 percentage points [51][56]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction. The current capacity utilization rate is 84.4%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 405,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.5727 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [60][62][69]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe area is 1,180 yuan/ton, showing an increase. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable, with prices in Shandong increasing by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [77][78][84]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread The rise in futures has led to a weakening of the basis [80].