Core Viewpoint - The overnight surge in London spot gold prices reached a new historical high, driven by uncertainties in U.S. policy and a weakening dollar, while geopolitical tensions continue to support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5]. Market Dynamics - London spot gold prices increased significantly, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.82% and SHFE gold declining by 0.28% [5]. - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below the 96 mark to a four-year low, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, which bolstered gold prices [5]. - The likelihood of a government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January has increased, further undermining confidence in U.S. economic stability [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. is set to conduct military exercises in the Middle East, with reports indicating communication with Israel regarding actions against Iran, raising concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Despite expectations of limited impact from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and ongoing issues related to Greenland, are expected to keep gold's appeal strong in the short term [5].

2026 年 1 月 28 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，谨防地缘炒作反复 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,717.5 | -0.47% | 984 | 3,495 | -730 | 0.28 | | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,193.9 | -0.11% | 25,043 | 38,647 | -3,043 | 0.65 | | 1.04 | | | EC2606 | 1,442.2 | -0.24% | 2,566 | 7,912 | 588 | 0.32 | | 0.61 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East situation remains uncertain, and the chemical industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, continuing to fluctuate. Crude oil is still affected by geopolitics, and the relationship between the US and Iran is a focus of the crude oil market. The increase in US natural gas and middle - distillates due to the cold wave has temporarily stopped, and coal prices are likely to be dragged down by weakening demand [1]. - The chemical industry showed high volatility on Tuesday. Styrene and polyolefins generally remained strong, while polyester chain varieties declined significantly. The current inventory build - up in the chemical industry chain is a seasonal one, and investors should view the chemical industry with a fluctuating mindset [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm [1][5]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about the Iranian situation, the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield, and the US cold wave have pushed up supply concerns. Although the API data showed a decrease in US crude and gasoline inventories last week, the high inventory of US petroleum products indicated by EIA data is still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The current crude oil market supply is still in surplus, and the short - term rhythm is dominated by the Iranian situation [5]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia may potentially disrupt supply expectations frequently, and the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield also provides short - term support [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate following crude oil [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the US is cooperating with Venezuela to increase its oil production, which will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply and a significant negative impact on asphalt. The repeated US - Iran situation provides cost - side support for asphalt futures prices. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in the over - valued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Part of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The US welcomes Iran to negotiate, causing part of the fuel - oil geopolitical premium to decline. In the long - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle - East are negative factors [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in natural gas may support low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - **Main Logic**: The significant increase in US natural gas prices drives the crack spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel - oil power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation makes it follow crude - oil fluctuations [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and PX has reduced positions and declined [13]. - **Main Logic**: The weak trend of international oil prices and the obvious cooling of the chemical - product sector have led to a significant reduction in PX positions and a decline in price. The weak real - world situation makes it difficult to support high prices, and upstream raw materials face short - term correction pressure due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,200 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to remain within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [13]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Suppressed by the weakening of commodities, TA has significantly reduced positions and declined [14]. - **Main Logic**: The cooling of the commodity market sentiment has led to a significant reduction in PTA positions and a decline. There are no significant changes in the supply and demand side, but the downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the seasonal inventory build - up pressure of PTA has increased. The PTA price spread and month - to - month spread are both weak, and the market is worried about the inventory build - up pressure around the Spring Festival. The PTA disk profit has corrected from a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 month - to - month spread, and the short - term PTA processing fee may correct to some extent. The industry can choose to hedge to lock in production profits [15]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The game between expectations and reality is intertwined, and pure benzene fluctuates [16]. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene and the supplementary rise in the context of the long - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Pure benzene is in a transition period where the fundamentals may change, and the real - world pressure is still large. Although the supply - demand gap from January to February is still positive, it is expected to achieve a small inventory reduction in March [17]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory still needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals in the first quarter are improving quarter - on - quarter. It is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical commodities [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by capital behavior and export stories, styrene has risen recently [18]. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise of styrene is due to capital behavior under the expectation of the long - cycle bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of the commodity - market sector. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the inventory - build - up expectation in January has turned into inventory reduction. The seasonal inventory - build - up height in February is also expected to decrease [18]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there is a tendency for profit compression during the seasonal inventory build - up, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Lack of confidence among bulls and no continuous positive factors, ethylene glycol has adjusted and corrected [19]. - **Main Logic**: The poor commodity sentiment has led to a high - level correction in the polyester chain. Bulls in ethylene glycol lack confidence, and the real - world inventory build - up pressure is huge. The supply reduction is slow, and multiple sets of equipment are still in the process of resuming production. Coupled with the accelerating production cuts of downstream polyester factories, the high inventory suppresses the upward price elasticity [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment within the range of [3,800 - 4,050] yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the operation within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for EG05 - 09 [20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Cost support has collapsed, and terminal demand has declined [21]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in the prices of upstream polyester raw materials has led to the collapse of cost support, and the price of short - fiber has followed the cost decline. The terminal has gradually entered the shutdown stage, and the subsequent operating rate of spinning mills will also gradually decline. Without new positive factors, the market may weaken and consolidate in the near future [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the upstream for consolidation, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following costs, and the support for the lower limit of profit has increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term poor performance of raw - material prices and the general commodity sentiment have led to a downward shift in the center of the polyester bottle - chip price. The processing fee has slightly retracted, but the supply of some goods is tight, and the short - term downward space of the polyester bottle - chip market is limited [23]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates following raw materials, and the support for the lower limit of the processing fee has increased [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and methanol fluctuates within a range [25]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, methanol fluctuated weakly. The fundamental situation of oversupply in the inland market remains unchanged, and the inventory of ports has returned to the accumulation trend. The coastal market is affected by high port inventories, and the inventory - reduction pressure has further increased. Although the overseas situation is uncertain, the short - term trading may still be mainly based on the overseas situation [26]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The Iranian situation is still undecided, and there is still uncertainty in overseas equipment disruptions. Although the actual support is limited in the fundamentals after excluding overseas factors, the short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on the progress of the overseas situation, and the disk may still have upward space, generally showing a range - bound fluctuation [26]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Orders are accumulating before the Spring Festival, and urea fluctuates and consolidates [27]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, the supply was sufficient as the daily output increased. The demand side showed that agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand was appropriate as the Spring Festival approached, while industrial demand was mainly cautious and small - scale. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, and the spot market had new orders, with the overall urea market still in consolidation and a slightly stronger tendency [27][30]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Currently, it is the stage of order accumulation for urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. The price is not suitable for significant increases for order collection, while there is emotional and demand support at the lower price level. The short - term market will fluctuate slightly, waiting for the completion of enterprise orders before there may be a change [27]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Driven by raw - material and macro factors, the upward space of plastics is limited [32]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the plastics main contract fluctuated. The oil price fluctuated, and the US crude - oil production was affected by the cold wave but the impact was short - term. The high inventory of US petroleum products was still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The increase in natural - gas prices driven by the cold wave had limited sustainability. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods were repaired, but the spot - price increase was limited. The demand for plastics was in the off - season, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support in the future [32]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, and the upward space of PP is limited [33]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PP main contract fluctuated. The oil - price situation was similar to that of LLDPE, and the profits of various PP production methods were repaired, limiting the upward space. The PP downstream was in the off - season, and the trading volume had recently decreased. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence was slightly restored, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The short - term maintenance support still existed, and future attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supply is tight, and PL fluctuates [34]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PL main contract fluctuated. The PDH maintenance expectation still provided support. The overall propylene supply was tight, and enterprise inventories were low, with some offers continuing to rise. The downstream buying was active, and the actual - order auction premium still existed, pushing up the transaction center. The short - term powder - material profit fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand in the off - season provided limited support [34]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low valuation, PVC fluctuates [39]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the low - price "export - grabbing" of PVC still exists, and the decline in caustic - soda prices has dragged down the comprehensive profit of PVC's chlor - alkali. The upstream production is normal, the downstream start - up will seasonally weaken, the export volume continued to increase last week, the calcium - carbide supply decreased while demand increased, and the caustic - soda supply and demand were weak, with the PVC dynamic cost rising [39]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. In the short term, the "export - grabbing" and low - valuation of PVC support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the market will fluctuate [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic - soda positions should be closed at low prices [40]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the weak situation of caustic soda continues, the inventory is still accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, the Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, the new alumina production capacity in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will marginally boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum start - up is weakening, the upstream production has little change, and the short - term liquid - chlorine price is stable but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, with the dynamic cost of Shandong caustic soda rising [40]. - **Outlook**: Weak fluctuation. Before the Spring Festival, upstream enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the caustic - soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid - chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, caustic - soda short positions should be closed at low prices [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest basis values, changes, and the quantity of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided for this part in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on January 27, 2026, was 2,499.53, a decrease of 0.14%. The commodity 20 - index was 2,875.98, a decrease of 0.12%, and the industrial - product index was 2,357.14, a decrease of 0.54% [286]. - The energy index on January 27, 2026, was 1,138.61, with a daily decline of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 2.69%, a 1 - month increase of 3.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.79% [288].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market volatility has increased. Although sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand, the short - term copper price may be range - bound due to tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories [3][4]. - Aluminum: Despite the accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories, the high price suppressing downstream demand is not a major negative factor in the off - season. With relatively low LME aluminum inventories and high US aluminum spot premiums, and loose domestic and overseas policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound [5][6]. - Lead: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The current industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [7][8]. - Zinc: Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [9][10]. - Tin: Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term [11][12]. - Nickel: Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [13][14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach [16][17]. - Alumina: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term [19][20]. - Stainless Steel: Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility [22][23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Market Information - The Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, causing market volatility. The US dollar index weakened, and the copper price declined and then rebounded. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.21% at $13,024 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan per ton. LME copper inventories increased by 1,825 tons to 172,350 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 145,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot narrowed to about 650 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,720 yuan per ton, slightly narrowing [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand. The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M copper, it is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The US dollar index declined, gold prices hit new highs, and oil prices rose. The aluminum price fluctuated upwards. The LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at $3,212 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 15,000 to 717,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 141,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly, and the aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 502,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Despite inventory accumulation, it is not a major negative in the off - season. With low LME inventories and high US spot premiums, and loose policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,700 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is $3,170 - $3,260 per ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% at 17,016 yuan per ton. The LME 3S lead rose $5.5 to $2,032.5 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 213,600 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.88% at 24,962 yuan per ton. The LME 3S zinc rose $39 to $3,331 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,760 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,300 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [10]. Tin Market Information - On January 27, the tin price rose and then fell. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 451,160 yuan per ton, up 6.07%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 71 tons to 8,553 tons. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to tight scrap tin raw materials and high - price观望 by downstream. The downstream inventory is low, and the acceptance of the tin price is increasing [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $52,000 - $58,000 per ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On January 27, the nickel price fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,370 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M nickel, it is $16,000 - $19,000 per ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 169,666 yuan, up 0.52%. The LC2605 contract closed at 179,600 yuan, up 8.40% [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 169,000 - 188,000 yuan per ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On January 27, the alumina index rose 0.1% to 2,731 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 17,000 to 662,300 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 179 yuan per ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304 per ton, and the import loss was 81 yuan per ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,300 tons to 155,500 tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan per ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,540 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The position decreased by 15,508 to 303,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed. The raw material prices also changed. The futures inventory decreased by 7,180 tons to 38,938 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan per ton [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.2% at 23,055 yuan per ton. The position increased to 17,900 lots, and the trading volume was 15,500 lots. The domestic three - place inventory slightly decreased to 41,700 tons [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - The consumer confidence index in the US has declined, which may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is recommended to control risks and not be overly bullish in the short term [1] - The domestic methanol market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to high domestic methanol production, decreased downstream demand, and rising port inventory [1] - The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and its price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] - The iron ore price is expected to have a correction due to slow demand recovery and other factors, maintaining a medium - term bearish view [3] - Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand, high costs, and bearish market expectations [4] - The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4] - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions [5] - The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude due to supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] - Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment, but it may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] - The long - term government bond market is bearish due to the positive growth of industrial enterprise profits and tight capital, and it will mainly fluctuate [7] - The crude oil price is boosted by geopolitical risks and production disruptions, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term due to weak demand and high - pressure new capacity [9] - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [11] - The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation, and short - term trading is recommended [12] - The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for new drivers [13] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13] Group 3: Summary by Variety Silver - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, hitting a new low since 2014. The decline may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is not recommended to be overly bullish in the short term [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 5.04 tons to 11.31 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a decrease of 1.18%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate was 71.26%, a decrease of 1.3%. The methanol port sample inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, and the domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.25 tons to 43.83 tons. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1] Silicon Iron - The开工 rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 29.63%, a slight increase of 0.09%. The daily output was 14155 tons, an increase of 20 tons. The market has weak supply and demand, and the price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 14.50 tons to 320.52 tons. The Australian ore inventory increased by 193.84 tons to 7776.05 tons, and the Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 78.43 tons to 6090.71 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 2 to 122. The iron ore price is expected to have a correction [3] Rebar - On January 27, domestic steel market prices fell slightly. The price of common billet resources in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. One steel mill lowered the price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 3315 yuan/ton. Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term [4] Live Pigs - On January 27, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 130.39, and the "wholesale price index of vegetable basket products" was 133.33. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%. The price of eggs was 8.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2%. The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range [4] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 746745 tons, a decrease of 9.41% compared with the same period last month. Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic [5] Soybean Meal - On January 27, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable or slightly decreased. The trading volume of major oil mills decreased by 4.85 tons to 13.37 tons. The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude [6] Gold - Trump decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment but may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] Long - term Government Bonds - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The long - term government bond market is bearish and will mainly fluctuate [7] Crude Oil - In January, the extreme cold weather in the US may reduce the daily crude oil production by about 390,000 barrels. As of January 23, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 247,000 barrels. The geopolitical risks and production disruptions boost the oil price, and short - term trading is recommended [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.46%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased by 3.42% to 152.12 tons. The float glass market has a general trading atmosphere, and the soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term [9] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89%. The social inventory increased by 2.92% to 117.75 tons. The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [11] Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue was 57.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue was 53.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 25, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.04 tons to 58.45 tons. The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation [12] PTA - The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.3%. The PTA spot processing fee was 426 yuan/ton. The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] Copper - Chile's new government has a goal of increasing copper production by 20% in the next one or two years, but it will take several years to release new production capacity. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [13] Aluminum - EGA and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, which is expected to start construction at the end of 2026 and be put into operation at the end of 2030. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, with President Trump stating that he is not concerned about the dollar's decline, which has led to a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low of 95.7905, down over 1% [1][7] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen a significant rebound, with gold prices reaching new historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][19] - The market is concerned about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar's credibility and increased central bank demand for gold [2][19] - The expansion of gold and silver ETFs has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices, with silver experiencing larger short-term gains but potential profit-taking pressure, while gold remains more stable [2][19] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.54% following President Trump's comments about potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, where a comprehensive oil law reform is being advanced [3][14] - The average daily production of US crude oil was reported at 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][14] Group 4 - The US stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has shown positive performance, driven by a combination of technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4][12] - The market's transition from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth is noted, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market supported by supply-side reforms and policy effects [4][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. is conducting air force readiness exercises in the Middle East, leading to a 3.0% increase in WTI crude oil prices to $62.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices to $66.72 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran are raising concerns about supply risks, with the U.S. Central Command announcing military exercises amid increasing military pressure on Iran [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is contributing to rising commodity prices, with the dollar index dropping to 95.51, the lowest level since February 2022, and a cumulative decline of over 2.2% for the month [2] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 860,000 barrels per day, driven by improved global economic prospects and lower oil prices [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts have adjusted their 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $61.50 per barrel, anticipating a significant reduction in the oversupply of oil in the second half of 2026 [3] - Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 to $65 per barrel, citing geopolitical premiums and expected demand recovery [3] Group 3 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China, focusing on exploration and production with strong cost and return profiles [4] - PetroChina Company Limited (00857) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, with an integrated upstream and downstream business model covering the entire industry chain [4] - Sinopec Limited (00386) is a top global refining company with a strong sales network and capabilities in refining and chemical product production [4]

（原标题：港股概念追踪 | 地缘紧张与需求预期双重驱动 国际油价加速上涨(附概念股)） 智通财经APP获悉，美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，国际油价应声上涨，WTI原油日内涨幅达3.0%， 报62.46美元/桶；布伦特原油日内涨幅达3.0%，报66.72美元/桶。由于伊朗与美国的对峙及美元走弱等 影响，国际油价近期仍处于震荡上行期。 2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担忧。据新华社报道，负责中 东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场为期数天的空军战备演 习，以展示其在中央司令部责任区内快速部署、分散部署和持续作战的能力。 此次演习正值美国对伊朗不断施加军事压力之际。前一天，中央司令部宣布美军"亚:伯拉罕·林肯"号航 空母舰打击群已驶入中东水域。 美国总统特朗普宣称在伊朗附近的军事存在正在增强，但同时他也表示未排除外交选项。 伊朗石油储量全球第四，而霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的咽喉——每天2100万桶原油经此运往世界。 若中东局势发生变化，将对能源及运输产生巨大影响。 中东地区的地缘局势始终是原油市场的黑天鹅来源，伊朗问题的反复、霍尔木兹海峡航运受 ...

Market Overview - The main contract for asphalt (BU 2603) experienced a day of volatility with a fluctuation of 1.19%, closing at 3279, unchanged from the previous day's close, with an intraday high of 3299 and a low of 3260 [29][30] - The June contract saw a slight decline of 0.55% [29] Spot Market Fundamentals - As of January 26, the DES Shandong diluted asphalt spot premium was recorded at $15.97 per barrel, maintaining a range of $15-16 per barrel recently [29] - On January 27, the low-end price for East China heavy asphalt was 3180 yuan/ton, while the high-end price was 3230 yuan/ton, with low-end resources increasing from 3150 yuan/ton on January 23, and high-end prices remaining stable [29] - The spot market is operating steadily with no significant changes, primarily driven by demand-based procurement [29] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt has shown resilience against declines, with price fluctuations remaining stable compared to other energy products [30] - The market is influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran relations, which adds complexity to the cost dynamics [30] - A strategy has been suggested to focus on near-month contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments [30] Long-term Outlook - After geopolitical factors dissipate, the June contract is expected to have bullish potential based on global supply-demand improvements and domestic construction activity [30] - The domestic inventory of raw materials is sufficient until the end of February, which may drive prices post-Spring Festival [30] Key Data Points - The closing price for asphalt was 3279 yuan/ton, with Brent crude oil priced at $64.43 per barrel [31] - The market price for Shandong heavy asphalt was 3140 yuan/ton, with East China heavy asphalt at 3200 yuan/ton [31]

Core Insights - A trade agreement between India and the United States is nearing completion despite ongoing tariff frictions and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1 - The negotiations are influenced by tariff frictions that continue to affect trade relations [1] - Geopolitical factors are also playing a significant role in shaping the discussions surrounding the trade agreement [1]