Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a sharp increase due to reports of the U.S. preparing new sanctions against Russia if Moscow refuses to accept a peace proposal regarding the Ukraine conflict [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions on Russia - The U.S. is considering new sanctions targeting the "shadow fleet" of oil tankers used for transporting Russian oil, as well as traders facilitating these transactions [4][5]. - These sanctions are being prepared to apply pressure on President Putin to accept a peace agreement with Ukraine, with potential announcements expected as early as this week [5]. - Ongoing negotiations between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives have made progress on potential peace agreement terms, although key issues remain unresolved [5]. Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures rose by as much as 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of sanctions against both Venezuela and Russia [1][4]. - The recent actions taken by the Trump administration against Venezuela, including a comprehensive maritime blockade, have also contributed to the upward trend in oil prices [6].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月17日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.42%，沪银主力收涨5.05%，铂金主力收涨7%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑停 火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性 方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍 威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期 美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供 应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡，长期 ...

富格林作为稳健营运近16年的资深企业，凭借享誉亚洲500强名企的雄厚实力为投资者严厉曝光各式欺诈套路，坚持护航资产增值之路。周二（12月16日） 现货黄金价格在高位震荡，受到了美国就业数据、地缘政治紧张局势以及美联储政策预期的多重影响。最新公布的非农数据强化了市场对美联储进一步降 息的预期，俄乌冲突的最新进展为黄金提供了潜在的避险支撑。投资者们正密切关注即将公布的CPI和PCE数据，以及美联储官员的讲话，这些因素将共同 塑造黄金的短期走势。投资者如面对欺诈套路疑惑，可随时在线联系富格林分析师团队，善用提供的即时策略意见高效把握曝光的获利良机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中一度重回4330美元上方，但未能站稳此处，再次回至4300大关附近震荡，最终收跌0.07%，报4302.36美元/盎司。 在经历政府停摆导致的多次延迟后，美国周二公布数据显示，11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于市场普遍预期的5.1万人，显示就业增长出现一定反弹。 尽管就业增长超出预期，但失业率从9月的4.4%升至4.6%，创下四年多来最高水平。总体来看，美国劳动力市场仍保持韧性，但增长速度减缓，这增强了市 场对美联储在2026年可能进一步 ...

昨日12月16日（星期二），黄金早盘上涨至4318附近受阻下跌，到欧盘前最低跌至4271附近，欧盘低位震荡。美盘前开始企稳上涨，美盘初延续上涨，最高 触及4335附近，随后受阻下跌，凌晨下探4291附近后反弹4300上方震荡，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、美国11月就业数据"撕裂" 积极面：非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，显著高于市场预期的5万个，扭转10月减少10.5万个岗位的颓势（10月减少因43天政府停摆导致联邦政府职位锐减16.2 万个）；私人部门就业平均每月增加7.5万个，被视为劳动力市场健康的积极信号。 局势动态：俄罗斯控制哈尔科夫地区诺沃普拉托诺夫卡定居点，对乌军设施实施154次打击；乌克兰在多方向击退俄军进攻；美欧考虑停火后向乌提供安全 保护，德国总理默茨称必要时维和部队可对俄军动武，且欧洲有50%可能性用冻结的俄罗斯资产为乌提供至少两年资金支持。 消极面：失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来（四年多）最高水平，部分受技术因素影响（政府停摆后联邦雇员自报失业、调查回应率仅64%低于正常 水平、"轮换偏差"），且失业率数据标准误差高于正常，需谨慎解读。 市场影响：就业反弹支撑美元缩 ...

Core Insights - Russia has exempted Chinese citizens from visa requirements for various purposes, including tourism and cultural activities, marking a significant step in strengthening bilateral relations [3] - The Russian e-commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, with online retail sales reaching 4.4 trillion rubles (approximately 400 billion RMB) in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 39% year-on-year increase [3] - The geopolitical shifts due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created a substantial market gap, presenting new opportunities for Chinese goods with supply chain advantages [3] Economic Overview - The Russian economy is under pressure, with the central bank selling gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, reducing its gold reserves from 405.7 tons to 173.1 tons since the onset of the conflict [4][5] - The fiscal deficit for Russia reached 3.69 trillion rubles (approximately 325.5 billion RMB) in the first half of the year, over five times the deficit for the same period in 2024 [5] - The Russian government is expected to spend at least 16.55 trillion rubles (approximately 1.4715 trillion RMB) on military-related expenditures in 2025 [5] Currency and Payment Challenges - The ongoing conflict has led to significant currency fluctuations, with the ruble experiencing volatility of up to 50% annually, impacting merchants' profitability [6] - The ruble has appreciated over 40% against the dollar in 2025, but geopolitical risks remain a critical factor influencing its value [6][7] - Payment processing has been disrupted due to sanctions, with fewer banks willing to engage in transactions involving Russian funds, although some local banks are beginning to accept payments from Russia [7][8] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics landscape has been reshaped by the conflict, with transportation costs increasing by 69% over the past three years due to the need for new infrastructure and alternative routes [8] - Ozon has established fulfillment centers in ten Chinese cities and is optimizing logistics services for cross-border sellers, potentially reducing logistics costs by about 40% [9] - The platform is also enhancing return policies to alleviate operational costs for Chinese sellers, allowing for easier re-listing of returned items [9] Marketing and Brand Localization - The tightening of control over foreign social media platforms has led to a shift towards local platforms like VK and Telegram for brand marketing in Russia [10][11] - Ozon plans to launch the "Ozon Alliance Program" in 2026 to connect Chinese sellers with over 1 million KOLs on VK, facilitating off-site traffic generation [11] - The restructuring of the Russian e-commerce market necessitates adaptation to new operational rules, with early adopters likely to benefit from growth opportunities [11]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月16日16时29分 一、黄金 报告导读： ①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美 国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基旨在结束战争的重要会谈取得进展。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币 属性方面，美联储威廉姆斯表示，政策已从温和限制性转向中性，料通胀明年回落。美国初请失业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美 联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来 经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4 月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短 期需求仍有任性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银 强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | --- | | 策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain stable near a key breakout area despite a brief pullback, supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance safe-haven demand [1][3][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the third reduction since 2025, with Chairman Powell indicating a continued accommodative stance, boosting expectations for low rates to persist until 2026 [3] - The dovish shift from the Fed has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading investors to favor metal assets amid declining yields [3][8] - Recent comments from Fed officials reinforce dovish expectations, with New York Fed President John Williams stating that the current policy is appropriate as the economy progresses towards 2026 [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments, including hints of a potential peace agreement regarding Ukraine, may temporarily ease safe-haven demand, although unresolved border disputes and security concerns continue to support gold demand [3][8] - The market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, which contribute to the overall bullish outlook for gold [1][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a third arc bottom within a sustained upward channel, indicating a consolidation phase within a broader bullish trend [4][7] - The current price action suggests that if gold successfully breaks through the key resistance level, it could trigger a new wave of upward momentum, with potential targets around $4900 if the $4350-$4400 range is surpassed [7][8] - The technical outlook remains optimistic as long as prices stay above the support level near $4100 [7]

今日内容 周一国际金价震荡收涨，开盘报4299.87美元/盎司，最高上行至4350.42美元/盎司，最低下探至4285.06 美元/盎司，最终报收于4303.99美元/盎司。 周一在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.0505，较上一交易日涨49个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.0656，较上 一交易日调贬18个基点。美元指数跌0.12%报98.2797。 央行周一开展1309亿元7天逆回购操作，当日有1223亿元7天逆回购到期，因此单日净投放86亿元。 宏观事件方面，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称就业放缓、通胀风险缓解，使其支持刚结束不久的12月议息会 议降息，但下次会议是否降息难以判断；美联储理事米兰认为潜在通胀接近目标，当前美联储政策立场 过于紧缩，对经济构成了不必要的限制。地缘政治方面，据悉美国在柏林的代表团坚持要求乌克兰交出 顿巴斯地区，乌克兰将获得类似北约第五条款的安全保障，但美乌在领土方面的立场不同。俄乌局势仍 然存在较大不确定性，国际金价震荡收涨。 风险提示：近期国际金价波动较大，市场不确定性较高，请投资者注意风险管理。 图一：伦敦现货黄金与上金所Au9999收盘价 图二：SPDR黄金持仓量与伦敦现货黄金收盘价 图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices reaching 1353 CNY per gram on December 15, 2025, compared to 340 CNY per gram on the same day in 2019, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global central banks' gold purchases, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 15, 2025, gold prices in China ranged from 1301 to 1353 CNY per gram, with high-end brands like Chow Tai Fook exceeding 1350 CNY [3]. - The international gold price was reported at 4304 USD per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous day, but down from a high of 4353 USD [3]. - In 2025, gold prices surged from 2650 USD per ounce at the beginning of the year to 4300 USD by December, marking a growth of over 60% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global central bank gold purchases reached a record level in 2025, with net purchases amounting to 254 tons by October, and total purchases exceeding 1200 tons in the first eleven months, a 15% increase year-on-year [5][7]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 contributed to an 8% decline in the dollar index, prompting a shift of funds from bonds to gold [7]. - The geopolitical landscape, including ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, has reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - In 2025, gold ETF inflows reached 500 tons in the first three quarters, surpassing the entire net inflow of 400 tons in 2019 [11]. - Short-term traders are adopting a cautious approach, with strategies focused on specific price ranges, while long-term investors are targeting a price range of 4900 to 5000 USD for 2026 [12][14]. - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with a 15% increase in bank gold bar sales but a 10% decrease in gold jewelry sales, indicating a preference for lower-premium investment gold bars over jewelry [14].

一位以色列官员证实白宫感到不满，但语气较为温和，指出某些阿拉伯国家认为这违反了停火协议。据 美国官员称，白宫明确表示以色列违反了停火协议。然而，以色列政府告诉特朗普政府，是哈马斯通过 袭击士兵和恢复武器走私违反了协议。 白宫和以色列驻华盛顿大使馆均拒绝置评。这起事件只是白宫与内塔尼亚胡政府之间一连串冲突中的最 新一起。特朗普政府认为，内塔尼亚胡对叙利亚的跨境袭击削弱了美国帮助沙拉政府稳定该国局势的努 力，并破坏了叙利亚与以色列达成新安全协议的目标。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 上海黄金t+d近期呈现多空拉锯态势，价格在970元/克附近震荡，技术面显示短期均线粘合，布林带收 窄，市场观望情绪浓厚。地缘政治风险的不确定性为金价提供支撑，但美元走强及部分投资者获利回吐 压制了上行空间。当前需关注975元/克关键阻力位和960元/克支撑位，突破任一方向或引发趋势性行 情。 摘要今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，上海黄金T+D早盘开盘于977.20元/克，随后震荡上行，盘中最高触 及977.86元/克，截至发稿报969.07元/克，跌幅0.62% 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，上海黄金t+d早盘开盘于977.20元 ...