日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

Group 1 - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index for European routes is reported at 1379.07 points, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous period [1] - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 26.344 million tons, a decrease of 452,000 tons week-on-week [1] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports for the same period were 24.497 million tons, down by 631,000 tons compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for April 2025 is expected to be 1.79 million tons, an increase of 14.8% from March; production is projected at 1.62 million tons, up 16.9% from March; and exports are expected to reach 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March [1] - As of April 24, 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption for the year is reported at 4.44 million liters, with 3.2 million liters consumed from January to March; the mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia is set at 40%, up from 35% last year [1] Group 3 - As of May 3, 2025, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2024/25 season is at 97.7%, compared to 94.8% the previous week and 94.3% the same time last year, with a five-year average of 96.3% [1] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 4, 2025, the soybean planting rate in the U.S. is at 30%, below market expectations of 31%, and up from 18% the previous week and 24% last year, with a five-year average of 23%; the emergence rate is at 7%, compared to 8% last year and a five-year average of 5% [2] - India's Ministry of Mines reports that aluminum production for the fiscal year 2024-25 is expected to increase to 420,000 tons from 416,000 tons in 2023-24; refined copper production is projected to grow by 12.6%, from 509,000 tons in 2023-24 to 573,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

研究中心能化团队 2025/04/30 TA基差 产销 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 2025/0 4/23 66.1 589 750 4340 6265 104.34 161.0 182 -11 86.0 78.9 124544 10 0.70 2025/0 4/24 66.6 582 744 4350 6280 94.19 162.0 225 -3 86.0 78.9 122028 15 0.60 2025/0 4/25 66.9 582 752 4415 6265 91.59 170.0 247 -63 86.2 78.9 111956 20 0.75 2025/0 4/28 65.9 578 758 4585 6395 95.25 180.0 383 -86 86.2 78.9 109868 80 0.60 2025/0 4/29 64.3 572 756 4540 6420 101.35 184.0 358 -24 86 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the 380 near-month spread weakened slightly, and the 380 basis strengthened. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated and strengthened, the spread fluctuated, and the basis strengthened slightly. Singapore's land-based inventory continued to accumulate, ARA's inventory accumulated, and the US residual oil inventory decreased. Singapore's floating storage decreased overall, the high-sulfur floating storage increased, and the low-sulfur floating storage decreased. The floating storage in the Middle East accumulated, and the high-sulfur floating storage increased slightly. The high-sulfur floating storage in Fujairah increased significantly. The floating storage in Europe fluctuated, and the high-sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. The floating storage in the US decreased. Recently, the fundamentals of high and low sulfur have diverged. Affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has declined significantly. Recently, the differentiation between high-sulfur standard and non-standard products has continued. Recently, the spread between high and low sulfur can be expanded on dips, but there is no downward trend in high-sulfur cracking before the peak season. Pay attention to the fulfillment of power generation procurement demand [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.74, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 5.23, the Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 increased by 0.09, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 7.22, the Rotterdam VLSFO-G M1 increased by 1.99, the LGO-Brent M1 increased by 0.64, and the Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 decreased by 1.49 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 5.99, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 6.68, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 8.88, the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.11, the Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 increased by 0.51, and the Singapore VLSFO-Gasoil M1 decreased by 0.67 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 7.03, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 10.25, the 380 basis decreased by 0.05, the high-sulfur internal and external spread decreased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur internal and external spread decreased by 1.0 [3] Domestic FU Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 58, the price of FU 05 decreased by 57, the price of FU 09 decreased by 62, the FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1, the FU 05 - 09 spread increased by 5, and the FU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 4 [3] Domestic LU Data - From April 23 to April 29, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 74, the price of LU 05 decreased by 68, the price of LU 09 decreased by 75, the LU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread increased by 7, and the LU 09 - 01 spread decreased by 1 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LL: In May, maintenance increases and imports decrease. If the exemption of ethane imports weakens the expectation of supply reduction, attention should be paid to the demand situation after May. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is still large, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term pattern [4]. - PP: In the second quarter, the peak maintenance season eases the supply pressure slightly, but the output is still high. The demand has bottom support but is gradually weakening. The long - term pattern is weak, and there is a downward risk [4]. Styrene Industry - The market price of pure benzene continues to decline. The raw material trend is weak, and the downstream styrene futures are also weak. The supply of pure benzene has returned, and there is no sign of improvement. The styrene market is weakly volatile, and there is supply pressure in May. In the medium term, due to the impact of tariffs, there is price pressure on styrene. The strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations, with the upper resistance line at 7300 [11]. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term trading may be stronger, and the strategy is to focus on expanding the low - level spread of PX - SC. - PTA: The supply and demand drive becomes stronger, and the price support is relatively strong. The strategy is to wait and see before the festival, and treat TA9 - 1 as a short - term positive spread and a medium - term reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate in May. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate between 4050 - 4300. - Short - fiber: The rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly adjusted by shock before the festival. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of PFO6 below 900. - Bottle chips: The output is expected to be high, and the relative price follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The short - term supply and demand improve marginally, but the long - term expectation is weak. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and mainly go short in the medium - term for the 09 contract. - PVC: The start - up rate increases slightly, and the social inventory continues to decline seasonally. The demand is average, and there are problems in exports. The short - term operation should be cautious, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations [24]. Urea Industry - The main problem is the poor connection between supply and demand under the background of high supply. The supply pressure is increasing. The demand shows structural differentiation. The main contract 2509 may have a small rebound after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and take a short - selling strategy on rallies after the festival if there is a small rebound and no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. The option strategy is to buy and expand the spread in the short - term [30][31]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price was weakly running, pressured by macro - pressure and supply - side easing expectations. If the consumption end fails to replenish stocks in May, the downward channel of the market may further open. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The volatility ranges are given as [59, 69] for WTI, [62, 72] for Brent, and [460, 520] for SC. The option strategy is to focus on increasing volatility [49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry PE and PP Prices and Spreads - L2505, L2509, PP2505, PP2509 closing prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with the largest decline of - 0.59% for L2509. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed, such as the spread of L2505 - 2509 increased by 5.82% [1]. PE and PP Non - standard Prices - The price of East China LDPE increased by 1.09% to 9250 yuan/ton, while the prices of other non - standard products such as East China HD film and PP injection showed different degrees of change [2]. PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories - PE device operating rate decreased slightly by 0.07% to 83.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly by 0.02% to 40.2%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.41% to 49.7 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.52% to 60.1 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.3% to 75.5%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 50.1%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.37% to 60.4 million tons [2][3]. Styrene Industry Styrene Upstream - Brent crude oil (June) and CFR Japan naphtha prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with decreases of - 2.4% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of other upstream products such as CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea benzene also changed [8]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The East China spot price of styrene decreased by - 0.2% to 7250 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of EB2505 and EB2506 also decreased slightly [9]. Styrene Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The overseas quotes of styrene remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the import profit was - 243 yuan/ton [10]. Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 71.1%, and the styrene operating rate increased by 1.7% to 67.9%. However, the operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS decreased. The profits of styrene integration and non - integration decreased significantly, while the profit of PS increased by 133.3% [11]. Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle chips showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28. The cash flows of some products also changed, such as the cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by - 35.6% [16]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of PX - related products such as CFR China PX and PX spot price (RMB) decreased slightly on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads also changed [16]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The PTA East China spot price decreased by - 1.0% to 4540 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of TA futures also changed, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [16]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG port inventory increased by 3.2% to 800,000 tons, and the expected arrival decreased by 37.8% to 122,000 tons on April 21 compared with April 28. The prices of MEG futures and the basis also changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain such as Asian PX, PTA, and MEG showed different degrees of change on April 25 compared with April 18 [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the prices of other products such as Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda and PVC futures contracts changed [20]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 7.0% to 400 US dollars/ton on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit decreased significantly by - 125.8% [20]. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit increased by 90.5% [21]. Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates and Industry Profits - The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18. The profit of external - purchase calcium - carbide - based PVC remained unchanged, while the profit of Northwest integration decreased by 6.8% [22]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased on April 25 compared with April 18 [23]. Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates - The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as Longzhong sample pipes increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18, and the pre - sales volume also increased [24]. Chlor - alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 183,000 tons on April 24 compared with April 17, and the PVC total social inventory decreased by 4.7% to 421,000 tons [24]. Urea Industry Urea Futures Contracts - The prices of urea futures contracts such as 01, 05, and 09 decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [26]. Urea Upstream Raw Materials - The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and steam coal remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased by 3.21% [26]. Urea Spot Market Prices - The prices of urea in different regions such as Shandong and Henan showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different regions also changed [26]. Urea Downstream Products - The prices of urea downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the ratio of compound fertilizer to urea decreased by 1.10% [28]. Fertilizer Market - The prices of fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and phosphoric acid mono - ammonium showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28 [29]. Urea Supply and Demand Overview - The daily and weekly production of urea remained unchanged, and the factory inventory remained stable. The port inventory increased slightly. The demand showed structural differentiation, with industrial demand maintaining rigid procurement and agricultural fertilization not yet started [30]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices decreased on April 30 compared with April 29. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed, such as the spread of Brent M1 - M3 increased significantly by - 2050.00% [49]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed on April 30 compared with April 29, and the spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [49]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of refined oil products in different regions such as the US and Europe showed different degrees of change on April 30 compared with April 29 [49].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装置检修兑现下延续去库，但下游终端需求仍受美国关税影响，且随着仓单流出PTA现货市场流通性尚可， 短期内PTA现货基差上行受阻，价格则跟随成本端震荡运行为主，后市关注原油市场波动及五一前后终端装置变动情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差下跌后走强，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。 个别主流供应商有出货。5月上在09+85~100有成交，5月中下商谈区间宽泛，在09+70~120商谈成交。今日主流现货基差在 09+93。中性 2、基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures prices are maintaining low levels, with a slight increase observed in the spot market, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry amid seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] Price and Market Activity - As of April 28, PVC futures price (V2509) closed at 4989 CNY/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 720,000 lots, an increase of 100,000 lots from the previous period, while open interest decreased by 30,000 lots to 910,000 lots [1] - In the East China region, the price of acetylene-based PVC is quoted between 4740 - 4860 CNY/ton, with traders experiencing sluggish sales and downstream manufacturers primarily purchasing based on essential needs at lower prices [1] Cost Factors - Recent maintenance of some acetylene production facilities has led to a rebound in acetylene prices, which reached 2500 CNY/ton in the Inner Mongolia region, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] Supply Dynamics - The operating rate of the PVC industry was reported at 78.63% as of April 25, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.28 percentage points, with weekly production at 459,400 tons, up by 7,500 tons, marking a 1.66% increase [1] - The industry is experiencing a prolonged period of concentrated maintenance, with a slowdown in maintenance efforts [1] Demand Insights - A recent drop in PVC prices has stimulated some speculative demand, with pre-sale orders from PVC producers reaching 602,000 tons as of April 25, an increase of 6.02% [1] - As the May Day holiday approaches, expectations of increased downtime among downstream manufacturing enterprises are noted, with the comprehensive operating rate in downstream industries remaining stable at 48.16% [1] Export and Inventory Trends - Demand in the Indian market is reported to be decent, particularly in agriculture, while real estate demand remains weak, leading to a cautious purchasing stance among local buyers [1] - PVC social inventory has decreased for seven consecutive weeks, standing at 420,600 tons as of April 25, down 4.71% week-on-week and down 29.04% year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - With the May Day holiday approaching and the current spring construction peak season, the expected reduction in demand is limited, while supply is entering a seasonal reduction phase [1] - Despite high export volumes and continuous decline in social inventory, the overall fundamentals of the PVC market show marginal improvement, although macroeconomic and financial sentiment remains uncertain, leading to insufficient upward momentum [1]