行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 01 日 对二甲苯：供需偏紧，单边震荡偏强 PTA：单边偏强震荡，月差走弱 MEG：低库存，不追空，月差走强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6796 | 4798 | 4267 | 6542 | 496.7 | | 涨跌 | 44 | 20 | -4 | 16 | -1.8 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.65% | 0.42% | -0.09% | 0.25% | -0.36% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | 前日收盘价 | 206 | 172 | -43 | 80 | 7.3 | | 涨跌 | -12 | - ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 4 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 6 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 8 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 9 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 21 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 24 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短期波动下降 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡调整走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：暂时观望，关注7月下旬挺价成色 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，多PR空PF | 31 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡运行 | 32 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2 ...

| 11/1 | 国技斯领 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月30日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | 聚丙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | 女女女 | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | РХ | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ななな | 乙二醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | ななな | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 文文文 瓶片 | | な女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 甲醇盘面持续回落。伊以冲突期间中东主力区域码头几乎未停止装船,装船减量有限。由于 ...

2025 年 06 月 30 日 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 期货研究 铝：高位震荡，关注下游负反馈传导 氧化铝：横盘小涨 铝合金：成本支撑 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20580 | 135 | 115 | ર૦ર | -255 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20580 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2595 | 10 | 34 | 114 | -94 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 204284 | 51874 | 111071 | 97842 | 78926 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that methanol has formed a bearish accumulation zone, leading to a subsequent price decline [1][4] - Glass has shown significant buying activity, referred to as a "main buying fund bomb" [1] - Key market signals for popular varieties such as soybean meal and soda ash have been identified [1] Group 2 - The methanol main contract showed a bearish accumulation zone at 9:50, and has been trading around this zone since then [4] - The trading volume and price distribution parameters are being monitored closely for further insights [3][4]

Group 1 - The event "2025 Futures Empowering Green Finance Development" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on how the futures market can support the renewable energy sector [1] - Prior to the introduction of futures products like lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, the renewable energy industry lacked effective hedging tools, exposing companies to significant market volatility [1] - The introduction of futures tools allows companies to hedge against spot price fluctuations, lock in operating profits, reduce spot holding costs, and improve capital efficiency [1] Group 2 - Companies in the renewable energy sector should focus on developing professional teams and establishing robust systems to enhance hedging capabilities and avoid speculative risks [2] - Training programs provided by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange can strengthen the hedging abilities of enterprises, and there is a call for increased training efforts to support industry clients [2] - The collaboration between enterprises and the futures market is essential for building international pricing power and promoting high-quality development in the renewable energy industry [2]

Group 1 - The average daily trading volume of industrial silicon futures and options is 318,600 contracts, with a cumulative transaction value exceeding 8.5 trillion yuan, and institutional holding accounts for 65.1% [1] - The average daily trading volume of lithium carbonate futures and options is 337,000 contracts, with a cumulative transaction value surpassing 11.5 trillion yuan, and institutional trading volume accounts for 68.2% [1] - The average daily trading volume of polysilicon futures and options, which just launched at the end of 2024, is 133,100 contracts, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has established a preliminary structure for the new energy metal futures sector, with industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon futures and options currently operational [1] - The Guangxi Futures Exchange plans to enhance its product system by developing new products such as platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide, aiming to better serve the risk management needs of the real economy during the low-carbon transition [1] - Platinum prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching $1,392 per ounce in May, the highest since 2014, with a year-to-date increase surpassing that of gold [2]

2025年06月30日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供应收缩，月差偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边偏弱 | 2 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 4 | | 沥青：弱势震荡，多裂解考虑止盈 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 8 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 10 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 21 | | PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间有限 | 24 | | 燃料油：夜盘维持弱势，短期波动下降 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡调整走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期震荡 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

2025年06月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 9 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 716. 5 | 11.0 | 1.56% | | | | ...