交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It has reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Pressure is gradually emerging [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories has pressured prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating within a range; Alumina: It is oscillating downward; Cast aluminum alloy: It is under downward pressure [2][20]. - Platinum: It has broken through the trading range, and close attention should be paid to the previous high [2][23]. - Palladium: The bottom is continuously rising [2][23]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, but the gaming contradictions remain unchanged; Stainless steel: The supply - demand situation continues to be weak, and the cost - support logic has been strengthened [2][27]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D showed an increase of 0.80%, while Comex Gold 2512 and London Gold Spot decreased by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively. For silver, Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T + D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot all showed increases, with Shanghai Silver 2512 rising by 1.94% and Comex Silver 2512 by 2.21%. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were different degrees of changes. ETF positions and inventories also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes [4][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold and silver both have a trend strength of 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2.02% and 1.76% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's copper ore imports increased in November [8][10]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper has a trend strength of 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 0.92%, while LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [11]. - **News**: China and the US should expand cooperation, and the US approved the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc has a trend strength of 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.98% and 0.52% respectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP improved, and the Fed's 10 - month JOLTS job vacancies reached a five - month high [15]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead has a trend strength of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 0.40%, while LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and various price spreads [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including US employment data, Bank of Japan's stance, and international dialogues [18]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin has a trend strength of 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For aluminum, the closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME Aluminum 3M showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, there were also corresponding price and inventory changes [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The "shadow Fed chairman" hinted at interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [22]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all have a trend strength of 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of platinum and palladium in different markets showed different trends, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump mentioned tariff reduction and interest rate cuts, and the US job vacancies increased [26]. - **Trend Strength**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend strength of 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless steel's main contract showed changes, and there were also changes in various industry - related data such as prices, spreads, and profits [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a subsidy for Russian imports, and there were policy changes in Indonesia's mining industry. The Fed officials' dovish remarks increased the probability of interest rate cuts [27][30]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend strength of 0 [31].

2025 年 12 月 10 日 研 究 硅铁：供应端信息扰动，宽幅震荡 锰硅：海外矿企报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5462 | 1 8 | 245,113 | 270,595 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2605 | 5416 | 1 0 | 21,426 | 66,909 | | | 硅2603 锰 | 5732 | - 4 | 259,055 | 282,351 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5772 | - 4 | 84,496 | 163,391 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | ...

Group 1: Hot News - In December, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 4.253 billion bushels, unchanged from November; the expected ending stock is 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 302 million bushels and unchanged from November; the expected yield per acre is 53 bushels, also unchanged from November [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced a reduction in soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and a cut in the export tax of soybean by - products from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum were also lowered [2] - On December 9, key coking enterprises from various regions held a market analysis meeting to discuss the supply - demand pattern and price trends of the coke market [2] - On December 9, it was reported that a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established. It aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities in the industry [3] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, silver, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: the precious metals sector had a 30.06% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.61%, and the oilseeds and oils sector with 8.81% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, grains, and chemicals [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - For equity assets, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.29% and a monthly decline of 1.64% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.12% and a monthly increase of 0.04% [6] - Among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, and London spot gold had a 59.67% increase in the past year [6] Group 4: Major Commodity Trends - Graphs show the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, and LME copper, as well as the ratios between gold and oil, and copper and gold [7]

一、贵金属期货 贵金属期货市场表现强劲，纽约期金价格持续攀升，先后突破4240美元/盎司和4250美元/盎司关口，日 内涨幅分别达0.07%和0.77%[1][2]。 现货黄金同步走高，突破4210美元/盎司和4220美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为0.02%和0.70%[3][4]。 白银市场表现尤为突出，现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司心理关口，日内涨超3%，年内涨幅达108%，纽 约期银同步突破60美元和61美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为2.74%和4.49%[5][6][7]。 国内市场方面，白银连续主力合约日内涨幅超3%，现报14042.00元[8]。 二、能源与航运期货 来源：喜娜AI 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 能源期货市场呈 ...

12月9日，国内期货市场焦煤、焦炭主力合约再度领跌。截至下午收盘，焦炭主力合约2601最低报1508 元/吨，焦煤主力合约最低报1074元/吨，近三个交易日来，两商品累计跌幅均已超过10%。 相关产品方面，11月下旬以来国内动力煤价格持续偏弱下行，对市场情绪带来明显利空，带动整体煤炭 市场采购情绪的降温及焦煤期货盘面的下行，而焦炭现货市场提降预期逐渐增强，期现共振下行。 她提及，12月10日钢厂对焦炭采购价格有第二轮提降预期，预计12月12日焦炭价格将执行下调55元/ 吨，累计降幅达到110元/吨。 "目前因焦煤降幅明显，焦炭成本端利空，叠加盘面深跌，市场采购情绪明显降温，12月份焦炭现货价 格有3轮下调预期。"刘璐璐称，据了解焦炭第二轮提降大概率在12月12日落地执行，因此中旬之前煤焦 市场现货行情仍以共振偏弱运行为主。中旬后随着下游焦化厂焦煤阶段性补库增加，山西、河北地区降 雪预期及冬储节点临近以及国内焦煤产量指标不足等影响下，中下旬焦煤价格有止跌预期。而焦炭价格 调整相对滞后，从焦煤价格降幅及焦化厂利润情况来看，第三轮降价概率仍然较大，预计12月下旬焦炭 价格止跌企稳。 期货市场方面，截至12月9日上午 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The Dalian corn futures market showed a decline, with the main contract closing at 2236 yuan, down 25 yuan from the opening price of 2255 yuan, indicating a bearish trend in trading volume and open interest [1] - CBOT corn futures also fell, influenced by weak soybean futures and a global supply surplus, with the March corn futures settling at $4.43-3/4 per bushel, down 1 cent [2] - Domestic corn prices in China experienced fluctuations, with a slight increase in demand from deep processing enterprises in North China, while prices in the Northeast rose sharply, leading to a price inversion in North China [3] Group 2: Soybean Market Analysis - CBOT soybean futures dropped below $11 per bushel for the first time since late October, driven by uncertain export prospects and favorable weather conditions in South America for upcoming harvests [4] - The January soybean meal futures on CBOT fell by $1.10, settling at $306.30 per short ton, reflecting a broader weakness in the soybean complex [5] - The domestic soybean meal market in China saw prices decline by 10-30 yuan per ton, with high supply levels and ongoing state reserve auctions contributing to the bearish sentiment [8][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, rising then falling, and weakening in oscillation. The price center of the contract slightly moved down to around 14,990 yuan/ton during the session, and closed 0.76% lower at 14,985 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 spread widened to 50 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price remains oscillating within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,088 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,056 yuan/ton, closing 0.63% lower at 2,066 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 spread narrowed to 77 yuan/ton. Affected by the sharp decline of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started a phased correction [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, weakening in decline, and significantly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 453.3 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 444.4 yuan/barrel, closing 2.26% lower at 446.1 yuan/barrel. The expectation of supply surplus dominated the market again, and Saudi Arabia lowered the selling price in Asia. The bearish sentiment dominated, and the crude oil futures ran weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, with a growth rate of 2.08%, and the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%. In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% [9][10][11]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.01%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a small increase of 3.53% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a significant increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons in the same period last year. As of December 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was 20 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 67 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decline of 195 yuan/ton [12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 407, a significant week - on - week decrease of 12 and a decline of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.815 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 3.02 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,985 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,100 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,066 yuan/ton | - 23 yuan/ton | +34 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.1 yuan/barrel | - 11.5 yuan/barrel | - 26.1 yuan/barrel | +11.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [16][18][20]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, WTI crude oil net long position change, etc [41][43][45].

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：12月09日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.73%，基差走强至-26元/吨。 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4630元/吨，较前一交易日下跌15元/吨。成本端布伦特原油再次跌倒63美元以下，OPEC+会议维持 26年1季度暂停增产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.92天，环比增加0.14天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，库存格局逐步转向累库。下游聚酯开工高位小幅下降，预计终端需求将进一步转弱； PTA加工费再次回落至150元附近，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月09日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌 ...