gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 上周国际油价回落，布伦特01合约跌2.77%。俄乌协议再现曙光，周日美乌双方就美国提出的结束 俄乌冲突28点新计划举行的会谈取得进展,特朗普提出本周四是乌克兰接收和平方案的最后期限, 美联储对12月降息的反复态度亦令原油等风险资产承压。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面临 更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险。 2025年11月24日 (责金属) (原油) 周五贵金属震荡偏弱。美国补发部分经济数据具备韧性，美联储官员们表态存在较大分歧，周五组 约联储主席称利率仍有调整空间令市场再度提升对12月降息押注。美方提出俄乌和平计划遭到多方 反对,后续仍将持续博弈。短期市场多空消息繁杂,贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向性突破。 【铜】 上周五伦铜收回盘中跌幅、尾盘走高，沪铜8.55万再显韧性。美联储票委言论将下月降息概率预期 再次提至五成以上，带动贵金属与铜价反弹回升。LME0-3月转微幅升水，库存15.5万吨，且注销仓 单占比低。沪铜上周减仓,价格震荡在短期均线间。国内沪粤现货交割后延续升水报价。前期空单 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend, and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, keep an eye on the performance of the spot and policy sides of domestic soybeans, and wait for the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation [2][3] - Wait for the end of the correction and focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after stabilization [3] - Continuously monitor the performance of the palm oil supply - demand side and the fluctuations in the macro - situation [4] - Maintain a bearish strategy for the domestic rapeseed sector and pay attention to the interference of foreign bio - fuel policies and economic and trade relationship expectations [6] - Wait for the signing of the specific Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in Northeast China [7] - In the medium - term, continue to observe whether the market trading logic returns to the weak spot market or the expected logic, and hold short positions cautiously [9] Summary by Category Bean - The main contract price of bean futures has declined recently, with significant position reduction on the trading floor and a slowdown in the downward trend. The auction of soybeans by Sinograin this week was fully sold, with an average transaction price of 3,900 yuan per ton. Imported US soybeans have been adjusting recently, affected by the weak overall macro - atmosphere and profit - taking [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 continued to follow the US soybeans, showing a weak and volatile trend. The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its impact on the soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the near - end crushing profit is poor but the loss has narrowed recently. The domestic soybean meal may continue to accumulate inventory [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Commodities generally declined today, the macro - atmosphere was weak, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts in December decreased. The international crude oil price dropped, and the international diesel price also tumbled. The supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is still poor, with an expected 10.32% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20 and a 14.13% - 40.62% month - on - month decrease in exports from November 1 - 29. The soybean - palm oil price spread continues to widen, indicating that soybean oil is stronger than palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The import volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has decreased year - on - year by 10 - 30%. The market focus is on the variables of rapeseed imports. If the Australian rapeseed arrives in China smoothly, the premium of the rapeseed sector over other competitors may decline [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose 1.11% today, breaking through the 2,200 mark at one point. The price of Northeast corn has declined in the past two days, but farmers are reluctant to sell due to the cold weather. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market prefers high - quality Northeast corn, leading to concerns about future supply and transportation capacity in Northeast China. The previous prediction of a second bottom may turn into a wide - range shock [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to be weak, with the near - month contract hitting a new low. The spot price declined slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuated downward during the day, almost erasing yesterday's gains. The spot price was mostly stable, with slight declines in some areas. The short - term market volatility has increased [9]

2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Hold (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently in a phase of profit recovery after a decline from the peak in 2021, similar to the cycle observed from 2012 to 2015 [1][3] - Raw material prices are stable, with gross margins and price spreads at historical lows, but the pressure from oversupply is easing, and demand from mid and downstream sectors is steadily growing [1][3] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to expand rapidly from 2022 to 2024, but a significant decline is anticipated in 2025, indicating a peak in capacity growth [1][3] Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is entering a long-term upward cycle starting from the end of 2023, with prices for major varieties expected to continue rising, such as the price of 2,332 reaching 63,000 yuan, three times higher than the same period last year [1][5] - Major refrigerant companies have reported significant profit increases, with Yonghe's profit growth reaching 450% in the first three quarters [1][5] - The refrigerant quota policy is expected to remain stable, transitioning from annual to quarterly pricing, which will facilitate more frequent performance realization [1][5] Cooling Liquid Market - The cooling liquid market is categorized into three types: water-based, oil-based, and fluorinated liquids, with fluorinated liquids showing promising applications in immersion cooling [1][6] - Companies like Juhua and Yonghe have already established a good layout in fluorinated liquids, positioning them for better growth as demand for liquid cooling increases [1][6] Price Trends and Expectations - Refrigerant prices are likely to see a slight increase starting in November due to year-end rigid demand and the exhaustion of annual quotas [1][7] - The natural gas market is under pressure due to the predicted La Niña phenomenon and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a projected increase in consumption as winter approaches [2][8] Investment Opportunities - The chemical industry is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 2.2, indicating potential for upward movement [3][9] - Investment opportunities are identified in the refrigerant, natural gas, and phosphate industry chains, particularly influenced by the demand for electric vehicle batteries [3][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on November 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index falling close to 3% [2] - The gas sector showed resilience, with notable stocks such as Shengli Co. achieving a four-day consecutive rise, and others like Guo Xin Energy and Changchun Gas hitting the daily limit [2] Weather Impact - A cold wave is expected from November 14 to November 17, with local temperature drops exceeding 12°C, leading to the lowest temperatures of the year in many regions [2] - By November 17, the highest temperature line of 0°C will move southward to areas including northern Shaanxi, northern Shanxi, northern Hebei, and northern Liaoning [2] Natural Gas Market Insights - Guojin Securities reported an increased probability of the La Niña phenomenon, which may lead to a sharp drop in winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere [2] - Current European natural gas inventories are at a median level, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices in Asia and Europe [2] - Long-term trends indicate a gradual easing of supply and demand in the global LNG market, potentially lowering gas prices and enhancing the profitability of downstream gas sales [2]

Coal Industry - The price of thermal coal has risen significantly, surpassing 800 yuan per ton, marking a new high for the year as of November 13 [1][3] - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with key listed coal companies reporting a more than 20% increase in profits in Q3 compared to the previous quarter [3][4] - Factors contributing to the rise in coal prices include extreme weather conditions, with northern regions experiencing significant temperature drops, while southern regions faced higher than average temperatures [3][4] - The coal industry is expected to benefit from a dual attribute of dividends and cyclical characteristics, making it a favored asset for market funds [3] Ice and Snow Tourism Industry - The ice and snow tourism sector has seen a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by events such as the "Qixing Mountain·Camel Cup" wilderness survival challenge [5][6] - The ice and snow industry in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with continuous growth expected due to upcoming major winter sports events [7] - The tourism industry is currently benefiting from a combination of policy incentives and demand release, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in online travel agencies (OTA), comprehensive cultural tourism service providers, and ice and snow tourism leaders [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.541 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.03%, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, a significant increase of 122.98% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - The company's installed capacity reached 6.8748 million kilowatts by the end of Q2 2025, an increase of 8.12% year-on-year, contributing to a Q3 wind power generation of 2.410 billion kWh, up 6.98% year-on-year [1]. - Solar power generation in Q3 reached 107 million kWh, a remarkable increase of 104.79% year-on-year, with total power generation for the first three quarters amounting to 10.768 billion kWh, up 9.47% year-on-year [1]. - Despite stable growth in electricity generation, the company's gas sales volume in Q3 was 944 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 0.94% year-on-year, marking a recovery from a downward trend since the end of last year [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Control and Profitability - The company maintained strict control over cost and expense spending, resulting in a Q3 gross profit of 425 million yuan, down 7.77% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased by 15.70% to 255 million yuan [2]. - Investment income rose to 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.13%, which, along with cost reductions, alleviated profit pressure, leading to a net profit of 147 million yuan for Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.97% [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to bring a colder winter, which may increase heating demand and gas consumption, potentially benefiting the company's gas sales and helping the new Tangshan LNG project to recover from losses [2]. - The colder winter is also anticipated to positively impact wind power generation, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's overall performance in the coming months [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Based on the latest financial data, the company's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.038 billion yuan, 2.248 billion yuan, and 2.480 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan, and H-share PE ratios of 8.44x, 7.65x, and 6.94x respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has experienced a rebound in sales volume for the first time this year, with a quarterly performance showing signs of recovery [2][6]. - The company's installed capacity has expanded, leading to a 9.2% year-on-year increase in controlled power generation, reaching 2.518 billion kWh in the third quarter [6]. - Despite a 3.03% year-on-year decrease in revenue to 3.541 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 122.97% to 147 million yuan due to cost control and increased investment income [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Volume - The company reported a total sales volume of 944 million cubic meters in the third quarter, marking a 0.94% year-on-year increase, reversing the downward trend observed since the end of last year [6]. - The wholesale gas volume increased by 27.66% to 334 million cubic meters, while retail gas volume decreased by 21.99% to 308 million cubic meters [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company effectively controlled costs, resulting in a gross profit of 425 million yuan, a decline of 7.77% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased by 15.70% to 255 million yuan [6]. - Investment income rose by 130.13% to 57 million yuan, contributing to the significant increase in net profit [6]. Future Outlook - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to lead to a colder winter, which may increase heating demand and positively impact gas sales and wind power generation [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, expecting profits of 2.038 billion yuan, 2.248 billion yuan, and 2.480 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan [6].