流动性方面，刘晨明团队指出，"2026年多数国家货币和财政双宽松，流动性宽松或迟早出现。一旦流 动性出现反转，来自全球资本活水的重新注入与境内流动性渠道的拓宽，港股有望开启新一轮上涨。尤 其要注意是否会出现流动性反转+春季躁动共振，形成向上贝塔的机会。" 广发证券刘晨明团队看好港股市场补涨，"港股正从传统的顺经济周期，逐步转向AI应用、新能源等代 表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近50%"。 刘晨明团队表示，前期压制港股的主要是流动性/情绪因素（日本息交易平仓、美联储鹰派降息表述、 基石投资者解禁等），市场情绪可能已经调整到位，恒科在120~250日均线随时有反弹可能性。 恒生指数高开，恒生科技指数涨0.33%，国证港股通科技指数涨0.36%，快手-W涨近6%，阿里巴巴、中 芯国际、哔哩哔哩-W、百度集团-SW、小米集团-W涨幅靠前。 华夏基金建议关注国证港股通科技指数，选股范围为港股通标的，不受QD额度限制，因而相对恒生科 技更具备流动性优势，同时在高端制造、生物科技及互联网行业分布相对均衡，"软硬兼备"。国证港股 通科技指数PE估值目前为26.45倍，位于过去10年的41%分位左右的 ...

关于布局方向，综合主流机构观点，近期配置思路聚焦两大核心主线，即科技成长与周期复苏。机构建 议，投资者可围绕科技自主创新与经济周期复苏两条主线开展研究与布局，同时密切关注政策动向及宏 观经济数据变化，灵活调整持仓结构，积极应对市场波动。 回顾2025年末，A股市场呈现稳步走强态势，股指多次逼近4000点整数关口。在政策支持力度持续加大 与市场情绪逐步回暖的双重驱动下，市场结构性机会凸显。步入2026年，多家券商陆续发布1月策略报 告，普遍对春季行情抱有积极预期，并明确了核心布局主线，机构共识认为春季行情具备较高关注价 值。 券商分析指出，从历史市场规律来看，A股通常在岁末年初存在"春季躁动"窗口。当前宏观政策层面有 望持续发力，助力经济平稳运行，为资本市场提供坚实支撑；同时，A股整体估值仍处于历史相对低 位，叠加上市公司质量持续提升，市场中长期向好的基础稳固。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].

2026年开年之际，投资者对于新一年市场行情的关注度显著提升，纷纷将目光聚焦于潜在的投资机会与市场动态。在此背 景下，券商密集发布1月份的金股推荐名单，去重后已覆盖212只个股。同时，对于开年首月A股市场走势，券商分析师普遍锚 定"春季躁动"行情，认为政策发力、资金流入等多重积极因素将为市场提供支撑，后续行情值得期待。 市场走势判断方面，"春季躁动"成为券商开年策略的关键词，分析师整体对1月份A股行情持乐观预期。 "政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场或震荡上行。"光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生表示，一方面，从 历史来看，A股市场几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步 夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。 对于春季行情的持续性，多家券商给出了更为明确的乐观判断。财通证券研究所总量研究团队策略研究组负责人徐陈翼表 示，随着2025年年底观望调整期结束，叠加2026年险资等新增资金流入、海外降息周期明确等多重积极因素共振，行情大概率 将启动"春季躁动"，整体趋势向上。 本报记者 周尚伃 春季 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 转债市场周报 春躁期间转债估值仍有提升空间 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-0.27%，价格中位数-0.50%， 我们计算的算术平均平价全周-0.75%，全市场转股溢价率与上周相比 +0.74%。个券层面，天创（控制权变更）、茂莱（精密光学）、利柏（核 电）、宏微（功率半导体）、宏图（卫星互联网）转债涨幅靠前；浩瀚 （网络可视化）、嘉美（控制权变更）、华医（半导体洁净室）、凯盛 （氯化亚砜&已公告强赎）、瑞达（非银&已公告强赎）转债跌幅靠前。 上周市场焦点（12 月 29 日-12 月 31 日） 观点及策略（1 月 5 日-1 月 9 日） 看好春躁期间权益行情，正股预期走强+季节效应下转债估值有小幅提 升空间，择券重视正股业绩弹性，临期转债考虑参与正股： 股市层面看，12 月股市风险偏好较高，但考虑到年末排名、回归业绩基 准等因素，资金更倾向于选择筹码简单、相对低位的新领域（商业航天）、 近期排产较好一季度业绩预期较佳的电池、以及有期货价格参考支撑的 聚酯产业链、有色金属等方向，而有泡沫化争议且受纳指影响较大的 AI 算力、刺激政策 ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.55% this week, with an average daily trading volume of 19.4 billion, reflecting a 2.8% decrease compared to the previous week [6][11][16] - The new stock, Hengdongguang, listed this week, with a first-day increase of 878.16% and a turnover rate of 53.79% [11][30] - The theme investment remains active, particularly in sectors such as humanoid robots, AI, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, with notable performances from Tianming Technology (+65.8%) and Lifan Holdings (+29.9%) [11][12][13] Group 2 - A total of 40 companies were accepted for public offering this week, with several expected to achieve over 200 million yuan in net profit for 2024 [12][13] - The report highlights the potential for high-quality expansion in the North Exchange in 2026, with attention on companies like Jieli Technology and Xianlin Sanwei [12][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in theme investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and the spring market [13][14] Group 3 - The report indicates a shift in market style from small-cap stocks to growth sectors, with a focus on technology and cyclical industries for the first half of 2026 [13][14] - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 82.98 times, with a median of 39.74 times, indicating a valuation landscape that investors should consider [4][24][26] - The report notes that the financing balance for margin trading on the North Exchange is 7.985 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investor engagement [6][30] Group 4 - The new third board saw 8 new listings and 3 delistings this week, with a total of 5960 companies listed [47][49] - The report mentions that the new third board completed financing of 769 million yuan this week, indicating active capital movement [47][52] - The report provides insights into the fundraising plans of various companies, highlighting significant amounts raised in the medical and mechanical sectors [52][53]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong recovery trend since mid-December, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 11 consecutive gains before the New Year, indicating a certain trend of recovery [1][5][28] - The "spring market rush" suggests that the starting point of the market has been advanced to November or December of the previous year, driven by optimistic policy expectations and clear economic trends [1][36][51] - The market is currently experiencing a structural rally, with significant participation from institutional and leveraged funds, and the inflow of incremental capital is evident [1][11][40] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that since 2011, there have been 9 instances of spring market rallies starting in Q1, with 4 instances starting early in November or December, primarily driven by policy expectations and liquidity easing [2][29][42] - The core sectors benefiting from the current spring market include technology growth, with a notable absence of financial sector leadership, which has historically been significant in previous rallies [3][30][53] - The market structure is expected to evolve with a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, while resource price increases and external demand may also play important roles [4][24][51] Group 3 - The current market sentiment remains strong, with trading volumes stabilizing above 2 trillion yuan in recent days, reflecting a preference for high-elasticity stocks [10][34][40] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide clear policy guidance, which is crucial for sustaining the current market momentum [7][36][45] - The market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, with potential adjustments depending on the inflow of incremental funds, suggesting a need for attention to low-position themes and sectors [3][30][51]

证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 春季躁动提前开启，结构先行特征鲜明，科技占优条件依然未变 2026 年 01 月 04 日 掘金 1 月春季躁动的机会 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 我们在 11.30 的报告《提前布局春季躁动》当中指出：近期市场出现了一定的调 整，但我们认为当下已经可以更加积极。我们在 12.21 提出，当前可以进一步积 极的原因还有：前期市场调整的 3 大因素影响都在减弱：其一为海外流动性扰动， 美联储降息对冲了日本加息的冲击；其二为美股财报窗口下 AI 泡沫论的风险溢 出得到改善，无需恐慌；其三为近期出炉的经济数据相对温和，叠加中央经济工 作会议并未有显著超预期的点，但我们认为，人民币汇率持续升值或代表全球投 资者对中国经济信心仍然充足，证伪此担忧。 当前 A 股市场已正式进入 2026 年"春季躁动"的预热与布局窗口。与过往普涨 行情不同，本轮躁动在宏观经济数据尚待验证、增量资金稳步入场的背景下，呈 现出鲜明的"结构先行、机会 ...

财信证券宏观策略周报（1.5-1.9） 2026 年 01 月 04 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 2.06 2.75 16.48 沪深 300 2.28 0.21 15.78 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 上证指数 沪深300 证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 慢牛行情仍将延续，择机配置科技成长 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。2026 年，在海外经济仍有韧性、美元流动性大概率持续宽松、国 内政策"双宽松"基调延续、"反内卷"持续提振物价预期下，我们预计 A 股牛市仍将延续，科技成长仍是中长期市场主线。元旦假期 A 股休市期间， 恒生科技上涨 4.00%、恒生指数上涨 2.76%。从 Wind 香港一级行业来看，香 港信息技术上涨 4.19%、香港材料上涨 3.10%、香港可选消费上涨 2.35%、香 港通讯服务上涨 2.11%，科技及有色方向继续领涨。虽然周末海外地缘政治 事件可能对市场情绪有短期扰动，但中期来看，在慢牛预期叠加"春季躁动" 行情下，指数大概率将开启新一 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 春季躁动提前启动，牛市格局依旧未改 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）韩国综合指数、港股恒生科技指数、中国台湾加权指数领涨全球，美股 三大股指领跌。A 股方面，周期、成长板块表现较好，一级行业中石油石化、军工、传媒领涨；公用事业跌幅居 前。元旦后首个交易日（1 月 2 日），港股迎来"开门红"，恒生科技指数单日大涨 4%，其中半导体、AI 算力、互 联网巨头方向大涨，显示市场风险偏好回暖。大宗商品方面，本周基本金属、原油上涨，贵金属下跌，其中 COMEX 白银、COMEX 黄金分别下跌 6.39%、4.63%。外汇方面，离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续走强，周五升破 6.97。 ·市场展望：春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026 年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春 季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026 年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投 资规划，同时财政 ...