来源：央视财经 【#白银价格飙涨##奈飞宣布收购华纳兄弟#】当地时间周五，受政府停摆影响而推迟发布的关键通胀数 据——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数出炉。数据显示，当月剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格 后的核心个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨2.8%，增速较此前一个月有所放缓。另外，美国密歇根大学 公布的1年通胀预期降至今年以来低点，消费者信心也有所改善，以上消息强化了投资者对美联储将在 下周宣布降息的预期，提振了市场风险偏好，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅不超1%。 本周美国三大股指全部累计上涨 5日国际白银价格显著上涨 此外，白银价格显著上涨，伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59美元，刷新历史纪录。纽商所白银 期货主力合约价格当天收于每盎司59美元上方，涨幅超过2.7%，今年以来累计涨幅已超过100%。 5日欧洲三大股指小幅波动 欧洲方面，欧盟统计局周五公布的数据显示，今年第三季度欧元区GDP环比增长0.3%，高于预估值。 欧元区经济回暖主要得益于投资和消费的提振。其中法国和西班牙的经济增速位居前列。不过目前俄乌 和平谈判依然陷入僵局，令投资者保持谨慎态度，一定程度上令欧洲股市承压。截至当天收盘，欧洲三 大 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月5日，世界黄金协会发文称，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素 的共同推动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。展望2026年，尽管市场普遍预期黄金市场当前态势将延续，但在地 缘经济因素的严重影响下，宏观经济数据出现分化，也意味着不确定性仍将居高不下。该协会的分析显示，经济增长放缓、主要央行货币政策宽松以及持 续的地缘政治风险等因素，更有可能支撑而非削弱金价。 截至11月底，金价年内已创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅突破60%，成为2025年表现最亮眼的资产之一。 此次历史性涨势有望创下1971年以来黄金年度涨幅第四强的纪录2，其背后是由多重因素共同作用。 金价涨势延续还是转向回调？ 2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素的共同推动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元 走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。投资者与各经济体央行纷纷增持黄金，以寻求资产的多元与稳定。 展望2026年，持续的地缘经济不确定性将继续影响黄金市场前景。金价大体反映了市场对宏观经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data, which is crucial for assessing inflation persistence and influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index has retreated to around 98.967, while gold prices are trading at approximately $4218.60 per ounce, reflecting a 0.28% increase [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4230.52 and a low of $4194.23 during the trading day [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from the previous 2.7%, while the core PCE is anticipated to remain steady at 2.9% [4]. - The market is pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The critical resistance zone for gold is identified between $4245 and $4250; a sustained close above this range could signal a bullish trend towards $4277-$4300 [6]. - Support is seen around the $4163-$4164 range, with a potential drop below this level raising concerns about increased selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to return to a rate-cutting cycle after the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with adjustments in the current week viewed as potential entry points for investors [5]. - The interplay of Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and the PCE data release creates a high potential for market volatility in the near term [7].

Group 1 - The World Gold Council predicts three scenarios for gold prices by 2026: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic [1][2] - In the optimistic scenario, gold prices could rise by 15%-30% if economic growth slows, interest rates decline, or global risks increase [1] - The baseline scenario suggests that gold prices will likely exhibit a range-bound volatility, aligning with macroeconomic consensus expectations [2] Group 2 - In the pessimistic scenario, if U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations due to fiscal stimulus, inflation pressures may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest rates, potentially causing gold prices to decline by 5%-20% [2] - Under the pessimistic outlook, gold ETF holdings may continue to see outflows, although some consumers and long-term investors might buy on dips, providing a buffer [2]

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 961.04 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.36% [1] - The opening price for the day was 954.50 CNY per gram, with a highest price of 962.30 CNY and a lowest price of 952.62 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment positions decreased by 9,000, with October's figure revised down to a reduction of 15,500 [1] - The Challenger report indicated that U.S. companies laid off 71,000 employees in November, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 24% [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December, with the government likely to tolerate this move [1] - The European Union aims to break down national barriers in financial services, targeting 33 trillion euros in household savings to create a unified capital market [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The U.S. economic and employment data presents mixed signals, with some Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December, leading to an over 80% probability of a rate cut [1] - Germany, the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. have introduced fiscal stimulus policies, contributing to expectations of rising global debt and fiscal deficits [1] - Central banks worldwide continue to purchase gold, with the one-month borrowing rate for silver in London exceeding 5.7%, while geopolitical risks in regions like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela may support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market shows a clear divergence this week, with non-ferrous and precious metals performing strongly while the energy and chemical sectors continue to weaken [1] - Copper futures lead the non-ferrous metals sector with a rise of over 2%, while zinc follows with a 1.4% increase [1] - In the precious metals sector, silver futures stand out with a remarkable increase of over 6% [1] Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market has seen prices break through key resistance levels, reaching historical highs, driven by supply tightness and increasing demand [2] - Major copper-producing countries like Chile are underperforming in production, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate and low processing fees [2] - Demand from sectors such as renewable energy and grid construction continues to rise, providing solid support for copper prices [2] Group 3: Silver Market Performance - Silver futures have surged over 6%, primarily due to expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and concerns over copper production adjustments [3] - The market anticipates that geopolitical risks may lead to a technical correction in silver prices if supportive factors diminish [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market Trends - The palm oil market has shown stability, with futures prices rising over 1% due to increased imports from India, which grew by 4.6% month-on-month [4] - The price of palm oil remains approximately $100 per ton lower than soybean oil, encouraging Indian buyers [4] - Despite high domestic oilseed inventories, the demand growth from India is expected to support palm oil prices in the short term [4] Group 5: Liquefied Gas Market Insights - Liquefied gas futures have shown strong performance, supported by tightening supply and demand dynamics in the Far East market [5] - Supply reductions from the Middle East due to equipment maintenance and increased domestic demand have contributed to this trend [5] - The stock market, particularly the energy and chemical sectors, has also performed well, indicating a correlation with liquefied gas futures [5]

金价飙升的背后，是全球经济不确定性加剧下，投资者对安全资产的集体渴望。 黄金在2025年经历了非凡的一年，创下超过50次历史新高，回报率超过60%。 12月4日，世界黄金协会发布2026年展望报告，描绘了一幅充满可能性的图景：在最佳情景下，金价可 能较当前水平再上涨15%至30%。 当前国际金价维持在约4200美元/盎司的高位。这一贵金属已然成为2025年表现最强劲的资产之一。 01 三大情景：金价波动区间揭示投资方向 世界黄金协会为2026年的金价走势勾勒了三种截然不同的情景。 在"浅度滑落"情景中，随着经济增长动能减弱，美联储可能超出当前市场预期继续降息，金价将上涨 5%至15%。 在"恶性循环"情景下，全球经济可能陷入更深、更同步的放缓。在这种情况下，美债收益率下行、地缘 政治紧张局势加剧以及避险情绪高涨将共同推动金价大幅上行，涨幅可达15%至30%。 "再通胀回归"情景则描绘了另一番图景。若特朗普政府政策成功推动美国经济超预期增长，美联储可能 在2026年维持利率不变甚至加息，金价则可能面临5%至20%的回调。 03 投资需求：黄金ETF成重要驱动力 世界黄金协会预计，投资需求将继续扮演关键驱动力，抵 ...

期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：地缘扰动叠加宣涨刺激，震荡 偏强 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2512 1,649.1 0.19% 270 3,731 -82 0.07 0.14 EC2602 1,585.0 3.32% 27,304 34,222 -786 0.80 0.64 EC2604 1,090.1 1.08% 2,881 19,129 132 0.15 0.17 EC2512 - EC2604 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 EC2602-EC2604 494.9 本期 周涨幅 双周涨幅 -14.4% -9.5% 559.0 期货 2025/12/1 1,483.65 948.77 2025/11/28 本期 运价 指数 2025 年 12 月 5 日 | 运价 | SCFIS：美西航线 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook for oil prices in the short term, with expectations of a price decline due to oversupply, while a long-term recovery is anticipated post-2027, with Brent crude projected at $80 and WTI at $76 [2][6]. Core Insights - Current oversupply in the oil market is significant, with global visible inventories increasing by approximately 400 million barrels, averaging an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day [2][6]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is influencing market dynamics, with potential negotiations being affected by external participants and battlefield stability [3][5]. - If sanctions against Russia persist, Brent crude prices are expected to range between $52 and $56 per barrel in 2026, with Russian oil production declining from 10 million barrels per day to 9 million barrels per day by 2027 [4][6]. - The market is currently not fully pricing in geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could significantly alter market conditions [5][6]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecast - Short-term oil prices are expected to decline due to a significant supply wave, with Brent and WTI averaging $56 in 2026. From 2027, prices are projected to recover to long-term estimates of $80 for Brent and $76 for WTI [2][6]. - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus of about 2 million barrels per day, which is expected to continue unless there are major supply disruptions or significant OPEC cuts [2][6]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering a negotiation phase, influenced by external factors, particularly the U.S. push for reconciliation and the diminishing external account surplus for Russia [3][4]. - Key negotiation areas include security guarantees and NATO expansion, which remain critical to the resolution process [3]. OPEC Strategy - OPEC is assessing its maximum sustainable capacity to ensure fair contributions from member states to market stability, with current spare capacity estimated at 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day, primarily in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [7]. - The organization aims to suppress non-OPEC supply and encourage demand to prepare for a tighter market in the future [7]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to express views on the oversupply in 2026 by shorting summer time spreads. Producers should hedge against potential price declines in 2026, while consumers are encouraged to take measures to mitigate future price increases [8]. - Specific companies with potential include Valero, SLB, FTI, Chevron, and Suncor, each with unique strengths and strategies to navigate the current market environment [9][11].