Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Outlook**: Index futures [1] - **Bearish Outlook**: PTA, PP, soda ash, methanol, polyolefins, rubber [1][2][10] - **Neutral with Upward Bias**: Treasury bonds, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, polysilicon, iron ore [1][4][5][6][8][10] - **Neutral with Downward Bias**: Lithium carbonate, steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), coking coal, coke, glass [6][8] Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly recovered due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, and the A - share market sentiment has been boosted by events such as the parade and the Summer Davos Forum. With the improvement of liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to continue to move up [1]. - The high valuation of treasury bonds has an increasing drag effect, and the bond market is mainly affected by liquidity in the short term, with limited trend drivers [1]. - For precious metals, although the geopolitical risk premium has declined, long - term factors are still favorable for gold prices, and both gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels in July [4]. - In the base metals market, supply and demand are intertwined, and most metals are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound drive and space of lithium prices are limited [6]. - The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and the supply - demand pattern continues to be loose [6]. - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and the weakening of demand in the off - season, and the steel price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The soda ash market has an oversupply situation, while the glass market has stronger support than soda ash, and short - term low - level oscillation is expected [8]. - The oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage after a short - term sharp decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The demand for methanol and polyolefins is weakening, and prices are under downward pressure [10]. - The cotton market has better fundamentals, and the cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. Summary by Variety Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points and the trading volume increasing to 1.45 trillion yuan. Non - banking finance and power equipment sectors led the rise. Global major stock indexes generally rose, and the stock index futures followed the spot index. With policy support and improved liquidity, the shock center of the stock index is expected to rise [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds weakened across the board. The central bank's liquidity operations and high valuations are the main influencing factors. The overseas geopolitical risk has weakened, but uncertainties remain. The central bank has a strong intention to protect liquidity, but there may be a large liquidity gap in July [1]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical risk premium of gold and silver has significantly declined, but long - term factors are still favorable for gold. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver [4]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillates in a range. The supply is tight, but the demand is greatly affected by the macro - environment. The market is waiting for the progress of tariff negotiations [4]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina has an oversupply situation, but the current valuation is low. The Shanghai aluminum has low inventory and supply constraints, which form support for the price [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market has not improved fundamentally, but the downward momentum is weak after the price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling options [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Due to the decline in cost support, it is advisable to enter new short positions in the PTA2509 contract [2]. - **PP**: As the demand enters the off - season, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the PP2509 contract [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is easy to increase but difficult to decrease, and the alkali plants are accumulating inventory passively. It is recommended to hold short positions in the soda ash 09 contract or the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. Energy and Minerals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by factors such as the decline in furnace material prices and weak demand in the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to run in a narrow range [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal has an oversupply situation, and the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market of coke is approaching the bottom, and the decline of the futures price may slow down [8]. Other Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still loose, and the rebound of the lithium price is restricted [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market is in a weak state, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - **Crude Oil**: After a short - term sharp decline, the oil price may enter an oscillation and repair stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: The demand for methanol is weakening, and the price is expected to return below 2300 yuan for the 09 contract [10]. - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins is weakening, and the price may return to a weak state and may hit a new low this year [10]. - **Cotton**: The supply of cotton is tightening, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The cotton price is expected to be strongly supported [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the downward pressure on the rubber price is increasing [10].

Group 1: Feasibility of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has a low likelihood due to economic constraints and pressure from Gulf countries[3] - The market's perception of the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait has decreased from 53% to 17% following the ceasefire announcement on June 24[3] - Oil prices have returned to levels seen before the conflict, indicating reduced market concern over the blockade[3] Group 2: Impact of Blockade Threat on Oil Prices - Historical data shows that Iran's blockade threats typically result in short-term price increases, averaging 1.9% on the day of the threat and 3.4% over ten days[4] - In extreme scenarios, if the Strait were completely blocked, oil prices could rise to over $130 per barrel due to significant supply disruptions[4] - Approximately 20% of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait, highlighting the potential impact of a blockade on global supply[4] Group 3: Secondary Effects of Oil Price Increases - Rising oil prices could lead to increased inflationary pressures, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially raising the U.S. CPI by 0.2 percentage points[5] - Higher oil prices may push U.S. Treasury yields upward, benefiting currencies of energy self-sufficient countries like the U.S. and Canada[5] - The relationship between oil price increases and gold prices remains ambiguous, as rising oil prices can elevate inflation expectations while also increasing nominal interest rates[5]

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of market uncertainty has led to an increase in gold futures prices, driven by geopolitical and trade-related risks despite a temporary stabilization following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures prices have risen as market uncertainty re-emerges [1] - Earlier this week, gold experienced significant sell-offs but has since stabilized [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran initially reduced safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions and trade-related risks continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Optimism regarding the ceasefire is tempered by the potential for renewed conflict, as a leaked U.S. intelligence report suggests that military actions may have only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions - Market attention may shift towards unresolved trade tensions, which could further impact gold prices [1]

昨日伊朗与以色列冲突出现戏剧性转折：特朗普宣布停火协议后，双方军事行动仍在持续，伊朗甚至对卡塔 尔美军基地实施报复性袭击。尽管正式停火尚未签署，但短期缓和预期推动市场避险情绪降温，黄金价格跌 破3300美元关口。不过，联合国秘书长警示局势存在"全面失控"风险，叠加伊朗报复行动，地缘政治风险仍 未消除，黄金仍可能因突发冲突反弹。值得注意的是，伊朗对美实施报复后，美国未升级冲突并宣布停战， 这一意外发展缓解市场紧张情绪。特朗普言论亦未表现出进一步激化矛盾倾向，与市场预期形成反差。随着 地缘风险缓和，避险情绪回落对黄金形成下行压力。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3342-3347区域做空，止损在3355，目标3320-3310 从技术面分析，日线级别收大阴线确认显著回撤，小时图形成乌云盖顶反转形态，当前空头趋势主导盘面。 MACD指标双线出现二次死叉迹象，预示价格或进一步下行。1小时图低点持续下移显示跌 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年06月25日16时42分 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属低位反弹，沪金主力收跌0.75%，沪银主力收跌0.44%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘异动缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储预期9月降息。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣称以色列与伊朗将"完全彻底地"停火，双方达成 协议，冲突仍存。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储正在研究关税影响。美联储博斯蒂克称联储目前无需降息， 年底前或降息一次。美国6月消费者信心意外下滑，一年通胀预期下降。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空 间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预 计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | - ...

全球金融市场上演了一场令人瞩目的"全速逐险复兴"。 随着中东地缘政治紧张局势暂时缓和（无论多么脆弱），以及市场对美国联邦储备委员会降息预期的升 温，全球股市如脱缰之马，一头扎进了狂欢之中。 MSCI 世界指数创下新高，新兴市场展现活力，而华尔街的大型科技股在人工智能（AI）热潮的推动 下，更是逼近历史峰值。纳斯达克指数自四月低点以来飙升 35%，人工智能已取代盈利成为主要的投 资主题，市场的每一个角落都充满了上涨动能。 与股市的狂热形成鲜明对比的是，石油价格经历了一场"壮观的跳水"。布伦特原油从伊以战争后的高点 暴跌 18%，从每桶 90 美元的"战争保费"幻象回归到 64 美元的现实。 这场暴跌不仅是头条新闻，更是市场对通胀压力缓解的直接反应，为美联储降息提供了潜在的借口。黄 金和原油的地缘政治风险溢价被迅速抹去，波动性指数 VIX 回落，市场似乎将地缘政治风险视为又一 次逢低买入的机会。 市场的这种转变——从危机模式切换到机会模式，从战争风险转向利率宽松预期——是当前行情的核心 驱动力。交易员们拉开了"恐惧交易"的绳索，转而拥抱风险资产。市场对美联储降息的押注显著增加， 七月降息重回视野，九月似乎已成定局 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is influenced by various factors such as international situations, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories a. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: With short - term international situation changes and improved macro - situation, the stock index is strongly rising. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 and sell the 09 call options above 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's bond - buying restart. Although there are short - term fluctuations, the overall strong pattern may remain. It is advisable to allocate long positions on adjustments and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening curve strategy [2]. b. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to stabilize at $3300 and maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Silver is fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $36.5, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options on Shanghai silver can be tried [2]. c. Shipping and Industrial Materials - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk is declining, and the price is weakly oscillating. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and attention can be paid to the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has seen an improvement in trading, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal on dips or long coking coal and short coke. The fourth round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is approaching the phased bottom [2]. d. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the decline in geopolitical risk premium, the crude oil disk is weakly operating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. PX, PTA, and other products are affected by the decline in oil prices and are treated with short - term caution and a bearish attitude [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, different strategies are proposed according to factors such as production reduction expectations and processing fee repair expectations. For example, short - fiber can be treated the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF disk can be expanded at a low level [3]. e. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal is following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather speculation. For oils, they are following the decline of crude oil, and for example, P2509 is testing the support at 8200 [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different strategies are proposed for various agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. For example, sugar is traded bearishly on rebounds in the range of 5600 - 5850, and cotton is traded bearishly on rebounds with attention to the pressure level around 13700 [3]. f. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For soda ash, maintain a high - level short - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1050 [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

25日周三，伊以停火协议得以维持，以及市场加大降息押注，双重利好推动全球股市小幅上涨，但投资人仍警惕停火是否能维 持，风险资产涨幅有限。美元、美债基本持平。油价两日大跌后反弹。现货黄金小幅走高。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数期货基本持平。 欧股普涨小幅上涨，泛欧股指、德股、英股涨约0.2%，法股涨约0.1%。 日经225指数收涨0.4%。日本东证指数收涨0.03%。韩国首尔综合指数收涨0.1%。 美债收益率多数下行，基准10年期美债收益率下行约1个基点。 美元指数、英镑、欧元基本持平。日元贬值约0.3%。 由于澳洲通胀降温快于预期，澳元涨幅缩窄，市场预期澳洲央行可能最快下月就降息。 现货黄金小幅涨约0.4%。现货白银小幅涨约0.3%。 美油和布油涨约1.8%。 比特币涨约0.7%，以太坊涨约0.8%。 KCM Trade的首席分析师Tim Waterer表示："地缘政治风险有所缓解，但目前的停火协议并不牢靠。这让风险资产（如股票）有理 由继续上涨，尽管上涨仍较为谨慎。" 美股盘前，纳指100指数周二创新高后，周三股指期货继续小幅走高。 | = US 30 | 43,118.50 | 43,143.00 ...