Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to high inventory levels and lower-than-expected demand, but there are expectations for a rebound in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Last week, the national rebar market prices fell slightly, with an overall decline of 10-30 yuan/ton, and a cumulative drop exceeding 100 yuan/ton [1]. - Steel production in September is at historically high levels, but sales remain flat compared to last year, contributing to recent price declines [2]. - Analysts indicate that despite the recent downturn, confidence among traders remains, with an increase in bullish sentiment for the steel market [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are currently 12 planned production line repairs affecting 11 steel mills, expected to impact finished product output by approximately 46,150 tons per day [3]. - The overall operating rate of blast furnaces and rolling lines remains high, with steel mills showing strong production enthusiasm despite low profit margins [3]. - Regional inventory pressures are easing in the western and southern areas, while demand is slow to start in eastern, northern, and northeastern regions [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Most steel enterprises are still profitable despite low margins, with plate manufacturers performing better than long product manufacturers [4]. - The steel market faces significant downward pressure due to high inventory levels and uncertainties related to potential COVID-19 outbreaks in the autumn and winter [4][5]. - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding the upcoming demand, with some analysts cautioning against overly optimistic expectations for price increases [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term, constrained by high inventory and coal chemical restarts above, and supported by cost margins below. The market expects the mid - term supply - demand contradiction to ease, but the rebound of near - term contracts is limited. It is recommended to focus on the impact of oil and coal price fluctuations on cost logic [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China also rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton. The basis shrank by 35 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened slightly from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, and the far - month structure remained at a discount [1] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 5762 lots to 199,600 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13,300 lots to 94,000 lots, indicating increased short - term capital games and some short - sellers closing their positions [1] - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.98 percentage points to 63.28%, with the coal - based operating rate rising by 2.53 percentage points to 58.98%, and the oil - based operating rate remaining at a high of 66.15%. All process routes are in losses, but no large - scale production cuts have occurred, resulting in continuous short - term supply pressure [1] - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43% without change. Weak terminal orders led to mainly rigid demand procurement of polyester raw materials, and the demand side lacked upward drivers [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 58,500 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating faster unloading at ports but lower shipping efficiency and accumulating explicit inventory pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose from 4422 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the East China market rose from 4455 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, also a 0.79% increase. The basis decreased from 38 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a 92.11% decline [4] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of MEG widened from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a 26.67% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 76 yuan/ton, an 8.43% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 38 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a 13.16% decrease [4] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 314 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points to 63.3%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.0%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase; the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase; the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decrease [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the negotiation price in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained stable in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton. The price in the South China market increased, but the trading was light. Affected by the US - Russia meeting and weekend polyester sales, the futures market adjusted upwards, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4485 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at East China main ports, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Current Gold Price Situation - Domestic gold prices have generally fallen below 1,000 yuan per gram, marking a significant decline after high volatility in the first half of the year [1] - Major brand prices include: - Zhou Shun Fu: 988 yuan/gram (daily drop of approximately 10-16 yuan) - Chow Tai Fook: 1,008 yuan/gram - Lao Miao Gold: 1,004 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1,010 yuan/gram [1] International Gold Price Linkage - International spot gold has dropped below 3,300 USD/ounce, with a reported price of 3,292.4 USD on August 1, leading to a domestic gold price decline to 767.2 yuan/gram [2] Reasons for Price Decline - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on July 30, with no clear indication of a rate cut in September, weakening expectations for monetary easing [3] - **Strengthening Dollar**: The dollar index surged by 1% in a week, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [4] - **Decreased Safe-Haven Demand**: A trade agreement between the US and EU has reduced geopolitical risks [5] - **Supply and Demand Changes**: - Jewelry consumption has plummeted by 26% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with high gold prices suppressing demand for weddings and other necessities [6] - Retail inventory pressures have led brands to accelerate turnover through price reductions [7] - **Speculative Retreat**: Rapid prior increases in gold prices prompted a withdrawal of profit-seeking funds, resulting in a technical correction [7] Impact on Consumers and Market - **Consumer Demand**: - For essential buyers (weddings, gifts), it is advisable to purchase during this period but to avoid high-premium products (some brands have processing fees exceeding 200 yuan/gram) [8] - For investors, gold jewelry has lower value retention compared to gold bars or ETFs, with experts recommending a longer investment horizon of 15 years to mitigate short-term volatility [8] - **Industry Transformation**: - Companies are shifting from a focus on "lightweight and low price" to emphasizing design and craftsmanship, introducing high-value products like gold inlaid jade [9] - Some stores are enhancing turnover rates through AI recycling and dynamic pricing [10] Future Trends and Recommendations - **Short-term Forecast**: If the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or geopolitical conflicts escalate, gold prices may rebound; conversely, if the dollar continues to strengthen, prices could test the support level of 3,250 USD [11] - Domestic gold prices are closely monitored for a critical support level at 700 yuan/gram [12] - **Rational Recommendations**: - Investors should be cautious of short-term fluctuations and prioritize low-premium gold assets (like gold bars) [13] - Consumers with non-urgent needs should consider waiting and look for wholesale markets or promotional activities to reduce costs [14] Market Sentiment Reflection - Most consumers perceive the current price drop as limited, with a psychological price range concentrated between 600-800 yuan/gram, and some users humorously suggesting to wait for a 50% discount, indicating expectations for further declines [15]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Black night trading weakened. In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate. Previously, it was recommended to buy on dips, and current long positions can be held. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to limited release of terminal demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 to 3360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 3470 to 3460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2 tons, an increase of 4.8%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6 tons, an increase of 2.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 to 210.8 tons, an increase of 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 to 306.2 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, the 2509 iron ore contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. In the future, the pig iron output in August will remain high, but is expected to decrease slightly to around 236 tons per day on average. Unilateral trading is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased from 800.0 to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 to - 37.0, an increase of 8.6% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an increase of 11.9%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an increase of 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 19.1 to 321.9 tons, an increase of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a decrease of 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 to 13712.27 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3 tons, an increase of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. There is still a possibility of further price increases for coke. For both coke and coking coal, the speculative strategy is to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to do 9 - 1 reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1347 yuan/ton. The coke 09 contract decreased by 14 to 1668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 to - 54 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 to 1139 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 18 to 1070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 22 to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The raw coal output decreased by 9.7 to 859.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the clean coal output decreased by 5.1 to 439.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 112.0 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated downward this week, reaching a low of 19,800 yuan/ton. The traditional off - season characteristics of the market are becoming more obvious, with downstream enterprises on high - temperature holidays, which drags down the orders of recycled aluminum. Although some small and medium - sized enterprises have reduced or stopped production, large factories maintain stable production. The cost support logic still exists, and it is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - As of August 1st, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots (factory + social) increased by 0.32 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. The upstream waste aluminum supply is tight, and the downstream automotive sales in July, as a traditional off - season, face growth pressure [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - end: Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a historically medium - high level. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillatory trend [18]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy weakened and showed certain seasonal patterns [26][31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, while the monthly operating rate increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [36][37]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased rapidly, while social inventory continued to accumulate. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [42][44]. - For recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided. For example, in terms of production, data from different periods are presented, and the inventory situation in factories is also shown with relevant proportion information [47][49]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles has recovered, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In July 2024 (July 21 - July 27), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 467,000, a year - on - year increase of 4.71% and a month - on - month increase of 14.74%. However, in July, as a traditional automotive consumption off - season, there is pressure on automotive sales growth [6][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the fluctuations in the futures market for coking coal and coke, highlighting a recent increase followed by a pullback in prices due to inventory pressure and policy expectations [1] - There is an ongoing speculation regarding a second round of price increases for coke, indicating potential future price movements in the market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for market participants to closely monitor inventory levels and policy developments, as these factors are critical in shaping future price trends [1] - The discussion suggests that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with traders weighing the implications of supply and demand dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]