Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a supply-demand dual-weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The cost support for polysilicon is weak, and the supply surplus pattern will continue due to weak demand and high inventory [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,680 yuan/ton and closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, a change of -0.41% from the previous day's settlement [1]. - As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 245,323 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 11, 2026, was 21,340 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The prices of East China oxygenated 553 silicon, 421 silicon, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon, and 99 silicon were unchanged [1]. - The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 5 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1]. - After the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees, and most of the post-festival inquiries were tentative [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing strong cost support [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. Short-term range operations are recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 43,100 yuan/ton and closing at 42,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.06% from the previous trading day [3]. - The position of the main contract reached 34,264 lots (34,909 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 4,644 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined. The price of N - type material was 42.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg (-1.25 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, a change of 2.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 29.01 GW, a change of -2.28% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 18,800 tons, a change of 1.06% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 11.08 GW, a change of 8.12% week - on - week [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.04 (-0.01) yuan/piece, 1.35 (unchanged) yuan/piece, and 1.14 (unchanged) yuan/piece respectively [4]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. The demand for downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, and the inventory was still at a high level. The de - stocking process was difficult in the short term, and prices were unlikely to rebound significantly [6]. - In March, some large manufacturers have plans to start production, and the supply contraction will end. The output is expected to increase compared to February, while the demand side shows no obvious improvement and is expected to remain weak. The supply surplus pattern will continue [6]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Short - term range operations are recommended for the main contract, which is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a supply-demand dual-weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue its weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price weakens the cost support for polysilicon, and the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not materialized. High inventory and difficult demand transmission in the industrial chain, along with the impact of the Middle East conflict, may intensify the selling pressure on the market [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On March 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,620 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 248,864 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 10, 2026, was 21,340 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons on February 26, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week. The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. - **Cost**: Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and electricity in Xinjiang have increased, providing strong cost support [2]. - **Consumption**: The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the Spring Festival, and most inquiries were tentative [1]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. Short-term range operation is recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On March 11, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 41,710 yuan/ton and closing at 42,590 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.47% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 35,013 lots (35,210 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 6,809 lots [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The spot price of polysilicon declined. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly production of polysilicon was 18,800 tons, a decrease of 5.05% from the previous week, and the production of silicon wafers was 11.08 GW, a decrease of 2.38% from the previous week [4]. - **Product Prices**: The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, with some prices remaining stable and some showing slight declines [4][6]. - **Strategy**: The price of polysilicon is expected to continue its weak oscillation. Short-term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Supply will contract, and the unilateral price will continue to strengthen. Cost provides support, and it hits a new high. Don't chase high in the short - term, buy on dips in the medium - term, and use the strategy of positive spreads on dips [2][9] - PTA: The price rebounds from the bottom. Cost support is strong, and the previous reverse spread position is risky. It's recommended to use the positive spread strategy on dips [2][10] - MEG: Supply contracts, and the unilateral price strengthens. Due to raw material supply issues, multiple domestic MEG plants reduce the load, and the supply contraction expectation makes the unilateral trend continue to be strong [2][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract is 9532, up 630 with a growth rate of 7.08%. The PX5 - 9 spread's closing price is 562, up 78 [4] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract is 6660, up 460 with a growth rate of 7.42%. The PTA5 - 9 spread's closing price is 366, up 66 [4] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract is 4577, up 272 with a growth rate of 6.32%. The MEG5 - 9 spread's closing price is 143, up 137 [4] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract is 7990, up 370 with a growth rate of 4.86%. The PF3 - 4 spread's closing price is - 188, down 40 [4] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract is 662, down 4.3 with a decline rate of - 0.65%. The SC2 - 3 spread's closing price is 5.4, up 4.7 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price is 1216.33 dollars/ton, up 59 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha spread is 297.3, up 17 [4] - **PTA**: The East China price is 6320 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The PTA processing fee is 274.69, down 35.45 [4] - **MEG**: The spot price is 4475 yuan/ton, up 287 yuan/ton. [4] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ price is 875.25 dollars/ton, up 33.75 dollars/ton. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread is - 4.34, unchanged [4] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price is 91.46 dollars/barrel, up 3.52 dollars/barrel [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **PX**: On March 10, the PX price rose, and the 4 - month and 5 - month quotes had no transactions. On March 11, the Asian PX price rose due to concerns about supply disruptions in China. The upstream ICE Brent futures fell, and the naphtha index rose [5] - **PTA**: On March 10, the PTA futures rose sharply. An IPA device in East China plans to stop for maintenance for about 10 days [7][8] - **MEG**: Affected by raw material supply, the operating rates of domestic ethylene - cracking glycol enterprises in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hainan, Fujian and other regions have declined [8] - **Polyester**: On March 10, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were cold, with an average sales rate of less than 10%. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% [8] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 2, indicating the most bullish view [9] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Cost supports and supply contracts. Don't chase high in the short - term, buy on dips in the medium - term, and use the positive spread strategy on dips. The passage in the Strait of Hormuz is poor, and some refineries may reduce the load. China suspends the export of toluene, and a Japanese PX factory declares force majeure [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, avoid the previous reverse spread position, and use the positive spread strategy on dips [10] - **MEG**: Multiple domestic MEG plants reduce the load due to raw material supply shortages, some declare force majeure, and the supply contraction makes the unilateral trend strong [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply increased last week, with a weekly supply of 72,000 tons, a 4.35% increase from the previous week. Demand also increased, with a weekly demand of 65,000 tons, a 6.56% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, while organic silicon inventory is at a low level. The comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon is 65.4%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, and the import is at a loss. The cost in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and the cost support has increased during the dry season. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Social inventory has decreased, and the main ports' inventory has also decreased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase, the demand will recover, the cost support will increase, and the industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,535 - 8,705 [3][6]. Polysilicon - Last week's production decreased by 5.05% week - on - week, but the March production schedule is expected to increase by 10.25% compared to the previous month. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March is expected to increase compared to the previous month. Currently, silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state, while component production is profitable. The cost is stable, and the production profit is 5,280 yuan/ton. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The weekly inventory is at a high level and has increased by 1.16% week - on - week. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase in the short - term and回调 in the medium - term, the demand will show a continuous decline, the cost support will remain stable, and the polysilicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 41,595 - 43,590 [7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased last week. The cost support in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the cost support during the dry season increased. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Social and main ports' inventories decreased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions decreased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase, the demand will recover, and the cost support will increase [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply decreased last week, but the March production schedule is expected to increase. The production of downstream products in March is expected to increase. Currently, silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state, while component production is profitable. The cost is stable, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The inventory is at a high level and has increased. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract futures price is below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase in the short - term and回调 in the medium - term, and the demand will decline [7][8]. Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices remained stable. The social inventory decreased by 1.25% week - on - week, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.31%. The main ports' inventory decreased by 2.17%. The production of sample enterprises increased by 9.63% week - on - week [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of some contracts increased. The production of silicon wafers increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased by 22.06%. The export of photovoltaic cells increased by 24.25%, and the monthly production decreased by 10.50%. The total inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week [14]. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - For industrial silicon, the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread trends are presented, showing the price relationships between different products and time points [16][17]. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis trends are shown, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as the moving averages of different periods [19][20]. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and ports is presented, including the inventory of sample enterprises, which shows a downward trend in some regions [22][23][24]. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specifications are shown. The production in some regions has increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate has changed [26][27][28]. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends - The price trends of main production areas' electricity, silicon stone, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents are presented, which affect the cost of industrial silicon production [32][33]. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang are shown, including the cost differences between different specifications [34][35][36][37]. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon are presented, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance in different periods [39][40][42][43]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends are presented [45][46]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are shown [47][48]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: The monthly import and export volumes and inventory trends of DMC are presented [50][51][52]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price trend, and import ADC12 cost - profit trend are presented [53][54]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots are shown [56][57]. - **Demand (Automobile and Wheel Hub)**: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheel hubs are presented [58][59][60][61]. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: The cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand trends of polysilicon are presented [63][64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of polysilicon is presented, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance in different periods [66][67]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: The price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of silicon wafers are presented [69][70]. - **Silicon Wafer Supply - Demand Balance Trends**: The supply - demand balance of silicon wafers is presented, showing the supply, demand, and balance in different periods [72][73]. - **Battery Cell Trends**: The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export trends of battery cells are presented [75][76]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The price, domestic and European inventories, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components are presented [78][79]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The price trends of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export trends of photovoltaic films, the monthly production and export trends of photovoltaic glass, the price trends of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export trends of welding strips are presented [81][82]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: The cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components are presented [84][85]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: The trends of the country's new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation are presented [86][87].

2026 年 3 月 12 日 PVC：成本支撑、供应减产，市场偏强震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 05合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 5-9月差 | | 5571 | 5270 | -301 | -29 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 以华东常州市场为基准，今日华东地区电石法五型现汇库提价格在 5330 元/吨，环比前一日上调 180 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 受中东地缘冲突扰动，上游能源及乙烯原料的不确定性影响持续推高，全球乙烯供应收紧推动国内乙烯 法企业成本上升，国内相关企业已经或者计划减小生产负荷，推动短期 PVC 市场走势偏强。若成本和原料 问题持续，国内 PVC 供需结构将发生反转。但需注意的是，虽然国内供需矛盾预期好转，价格抬升，但盘 面 PVC 成交未有大幅放量，后续需持续跟踪乙烯法装置动态及中国出口签单情况。 【趋势强度】 PVC 趋势强度： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation has become the core variable in the market. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the driving logic of polyolefins will gradually shift from single - cost support to a dual - push model of "cost increase and substantial contraction of supply". In the short term, the reality of upstream raw material supply disruptions, plant production cuts, and controlled sales will continue to support high prices. However, the subsequent evolution of the market will highly depend on the situation in the Middle East. If the blockade lasts longer than expected, the supply - side drive will strengthen, and an expanded scope of production cuts may trigger a new round of price increases. If the situation cools down, as the supply recovers and the risk - aversion sentiment fades, the previous price increases will face correction pressure [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - On March 11, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 840,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase (5.00%) from the previous working day, compared with 835,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,600 - 8,600 yuan/ton, in East China 7,900 - 8,200 yuan/ton, and in South China 8,150 - 8,850 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily around 8,300 - 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the cost pressure on downstream factories, the procurement enthusiasm for propylene decreased, leading to an overall decline in propylene demand. Production enterprises continued to offer price concessions, and the overall trading situation was poor [5] - The PP market showed signs of recovery. The mainstream prices of drawn - wire PP in North China were in the range of 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, in East China 7,800 - 8,100 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,950 - 8,500 yuan/ton [5] - The futures market: L2605 opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing at 8,154 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan/ton (2.18%), with a trading volume of 1.02 million lots and an increase of 9,286 lots in open interest to 322,673 lots; PP2605 closed at 8,197 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan (2.07%), with an increase of 57,892 lots in open interest to 421,712 lots [3][5] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with a supply - demand dual - weak pattern. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price leads to weak cost support for polysilicon, and the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been fulfilled. The inventory is high, and the demand transmission in the industrial chain is difficult [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon oscillated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,550 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a change of (-165) yuan/ton or (-1.88)% compared with the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 243,954 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on March 9, 2026 was 21,340 lots, a change of 504 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon decreased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 (0) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 26 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1]. - The demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were tentative [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%. The supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing solid cost support [2]. Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon remains sluggish. In the long - term, the price support is obvious. The overall pattern is supply - demand dual - weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories and changes in capital sentiment. Short - term range operation is recommended for the single - side strategy [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated and declined, opening at 42,400 yuan/ton and closing at 42,450 yuan/ton, a change of -1.18% in the closing price compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 35,013 (35,210 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 6,809 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. The price of N - type material was 44.70 - 53.00 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 34.80, with a month - on - month change of -0.10%, the silicon wafer inventory was 29.01GW, with a month - on - month change of -6.60%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 18,800.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of -5.05%, and the output of silicon wafers was 11.08GW, with a month - on - month change of -2.38% [4]. - In March, some large factories have plans to start production one after another. The supply contraction situation will end, and the output is expected to increase compared with February. However, the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain sluggish. The pattern of oversupply will continue. The polysilicon price oscillated widely on that day, with low overall trading volume and pessimistic market sentiment [6]. Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue a weak oscillation. The weak industrial silicon price makes the cost support for polysilicon weak. The demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been fulfilled, and the high inventory makes the demand transmission in the industrial chain difficult. After the festival, silicon wafer enterprises resumed production, but the inventory pressure still exists. The recent conflict in the Middle East has cooled the global preference sentiment, which may intensify the selling pressure on the disk. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the post - festival supply - demand recovery situation, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the silver price trend and inventory reduction progress. Short - term range operation is recommended for the single - side strategy, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short - term [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term开工 will remain high, but geopolitical factors still exist. With the post - holiday orders of domestic agents being sent out, the domestic shortage of some enterprises will be alleviated. Due to the high overseas raw material prices providing cost support and the geopolitical factors causing price fluctuations, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,500 - 17,500 [1]. Urea - On March 10, the urea futures followed the chemical sector, opening low and moving high, and the spot market price was adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of urea have not changed much, with high - level production. There is still pressure on the supply side. There is still some demand for green - turning fertilizer in the agricultural sector, and industrial demand is recovering. In the short term, the urea price is relatively strong, but after the green - turning fertilizer season ends in the second half of the month, there may be a market downturn. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1,860 - 1,900 range [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: On March 10, the caustic soda futures hit the daily limit down during the session and then rose at the end. The spot market is still optimistic, and the caustic soda price has been slightly increased. The supply - side load is slowly recovering, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and non - aluminum downstream demand is improving. Due to the Middle East conflict, the international supply chain risk has increased, and the export expectation has strengthened. However, the overall supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and price fluctuations [5]. - **PVC**: On March 10, the PVC futures price dropped significantly, and the low - price transactions in the spot market were good. The supply - demand situation has changed slightly. The ethylene - based production enterprises may reduce their loads in the long term, while the calcium carbide - based production enterprises have slightly increased their loads and costs. Domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes. The PVC price may be passively pushed up, but it is also affected by the uncertainty of the cost - end transmission [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: On March 10, the soda ash futures fell, and the spot price was driven up but the trading was light. The weekly production increased slightly, and the production line load fluctuated. The demand was average, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories moderately. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline, and short - selling can be attempted at the current price [6]. - **Glass**: On March 10, the glass futures price dropped. The spot price was raised. The supply - side daily melting volume remained low, and a new production line was ignited. The demand from downstream deep - processing and low - e products was average, and the futures price decline reduced the purchasing intention of futures - spot merchants. The inventory of production enterprises still faced pressure, and it is expected to continue to accumulate this week. The cost increase from energy prices needs further observation. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Polyolefins - The Middle East geopolitical situation is the core driver. The short - term logic is dominated by cost - push and supply reduction, and the fundamentals are secondary. The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game stage. The price fluctuates sharply following geopolitical news, and the high price lacks actual transaction support. After Trump's statement, the crude oil price fluctuated extremely, causing the domestic futures and spot prices to drop significantly, and the market is in a state of high volatility, low trading volume, and fragility [7]. Methanol - The methanol futures dropped significantly, and the spot was purchased on demand. The basis was relatively strong, and the overall transaction was okay. The domestic production device load remained at a relatively high level, but due to shipping interruptions, the market strongly expected a significant reduction in subsequent imports. The demand side remained weak, and the olefin开工 rate of the main downstream continued to decline. The current port inventory is still at a relatively high level in history, but the market expects the port to enter the de - stocking cycle. The current price trend is mainly driven by the supply interruption expectation and risk sentiment, and the subsequent trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [8]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工 rate data are presented [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the geopolitical influence, the crude oil transportation is blocked, and the Asian refinery开工 rate is expected to be affected. Some refineries at home and abroad have adjusted their loads, and combined with some device maintenance plans, the pure benzene supply is expected to decline. The downstream styrene industry has maintained its profit and load at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand support is strong. The pure benzene supply - demand expectation has improved, but it will fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the spread between EB04 and BZ04 when it is high [12]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry has good profits, and the supply in March will remain at a high level. The demand side is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, and the supply - demand in March is expected to slightly de - stock. It will also fluctuate with the crude oil price. The same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some PX factories in Asia have issued force majeure, and the PX supply is gradually affected. After the holiday, some PTA devices have restarted or increased their loads due to improved processing fees, and the PX supply - demand situation is gradually improving. It is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to wait and see for now and go long at a low price after the market stabilizes [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has increased after the holiday, and the March device maintenance plan is less than expected. Although the supply - demand expectation has improved, there is still an inventory accumulation expectation. It will follow the cost - end fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to the oil price trend [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly decreased due to the shutdown or load reduction of multiple coal - based and oil - based ethylene glycol devices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the transportation of overseas sources, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be low from mid - March. The polyester load will seasonally recover in March, and the de - stocking amplitude may increase. However, due to Trump's statement, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is still weak. It will follow the raw material price fluctuation and is affected by the cautious downstream procurement. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PF disk processing fee will fluctuate between 800 - 1,100 [13]. - **Bottle - chip**: The domestic bottle - chip supply will gradually increase in March. The absolute price will follow the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee will fluctuate. It is recommended to have the same single - side strategy as PTA, and the PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [13]. Crude Oil - WTI 04 - month contract closed at $83.45 per barrel, down 11.94%, and Brent 05 - month contract closed at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. Due to the drone attack, ADNOC has closed its refinery. The US strategic oil reserve remains stable. It will take at least 4 - 6 weeks for the Gulf region to fully resume export functions, and Iran has not clearly stated to stop the blockade. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate significantly [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.18%. The full - latex basis decreased by 420 yuan/ton to - 362 yuan/ton, with a decline of 763.64%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 15,850 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 680 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.16%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 560 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.61%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 54,800 tons to 549,000 tons, with an increase of 11.09%. Indonesia's production decreased by 28,200 tons to 161,100 tons, with a decline of 14.90%. India's production decreased by 3,900 tons to 108,100 tons, with a decline of 3.48%. In December, China's production decreased by 84,500 tons to 51,200 tons. The开工 rate of semi - steel tires increased by 39.47 percentage points to 74.03%, and the开工 rate of full - steel tires increased by 36.73 percentage points to 65.90%. In December, the domestic tire production increased by 473,500 pieces to 10,656,300 pieces, with an increase of 4.65%. The tire export volume increased by 186,000 pieces to 5,843,000 pieces, with an increase of 3.29%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 159,900 tons to 803,400 tons, with an increase of 24.84% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 200 tons to 680,412 tons, with an increase of 0.07%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 202 tons to 20,399 tons, with a decline of 0.40% [1]. Urea - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: The 01 contract decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 contract decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1,856 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.57%. The 09 contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 1,884 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.88%. The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton [4]. - **Main - contract Position**: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 14,403 to 121,561, with a decline of 10.59%. The short - position of the top 20 decreased by 25,730 to 177,959, with a decline of 14.46% [4]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price**: The price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng remained unchanged at 920 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. The price of thermal coal at the port in Qinhuangdao remained unchanged at 746 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market Price**: The price of small - particle urea in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,890 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.53%. The price in Guangdong increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.54% [4]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 3,200 tons to 221,200 tons, with an increase of 1.49%. The weekly production decreased by 15,700 tons to 1,003,000 tons, with a decline of 13.53%. The factory - warehouse inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 190,000 tons, with an increase of 9.20% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 1,843.8 yuan/ton. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of PVC in East China by calcium carbide method decreased by 610 yuan/ton to 5,120 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.6%. The price of PVC in East China by ethylene method increased by 200 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.3% [5]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price at East China ports increased by 10 US dollars/ton to 340 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.0%. The export profit increased by 42.6 yuan/ton to 230.2 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22.7% [5]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 700 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in India increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 740 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.8%. The FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 635 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 37.3 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton, with an increase of 79.4% [5]. - **Supply (Caustic Soda and PVC开工率 and Industry Profit)**: The开工率 of the caustic soda industry increased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.4%. The total开工率 of PVC decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 81.1%. The profit of PVC by external - purchase calcium carbide method increased by 135 yuan/ton to - 507 yuan/ton, with an increase of 21.0%. The profit of northwest integrated production increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 293.1 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18.2% [5]. - **Demand (Caustic Soda and PVC Downstream开工率)**: The开工率 of the alumina industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.6%. The开工率 of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 90.1%. The开机率 of the printing and dyeing industry increased by 18.1 percentage points to 42.5%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample pipes increased by 19.4 percentage points to 33.0%. The开工率 of Longzhong sample profiles increased by 16.1 percentage points to 27.4% [5]. - **Inventory (Caustic Soda and PVC Social and Factory - warehouse Inventory)**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda increased by 0.9 tons to 55 tons, with an increase of 1.7%. The upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 46,000 tons to 458,000 tons, with a decline of 9.0% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%. The price in East China remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton. The glass 2605 contract decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,076 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.54%. The 05 basis increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 86.36% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price in North China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.40%. The price in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,25

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After the rally and subsequent decline of crude oil, the black market has also declined. The market will focus on the support near the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages and the pressure near this week's high. After the sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental supply - demand trading, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating weakly pattern. The supply side has started to pick up slightly after the holiday, which supports prices to some extent. The real - estate policies are mainly for inventory reduction and stability, with limited demand growth space, which restricts the upside. The future focus is on the data of apparent demand and whether it can continue to recover, which will drive inventory reduction. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, prices are expected to rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress prices [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main rebar contract decreased by 9,469 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 795,516 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,091 in the short - term, was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,092 in the medium - term, and was under pressure near the 60 - day moving average of 3,108. With the rally and decline of crude oil, the market returned to fundamentals [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream areas was 3,220 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 112 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation** - **Supply**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [3] - **Demand**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the apparent demand was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by post - holiday resumption of work. However, it was still at a low level compared with the same period in history, indicating that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%); steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%); total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), indicating a significant increase in overall inventory pressure. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated higher, with a slight loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict initially led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a fall in global risk assets, but later, due to the G7's expectation to stabilize oil prices and Trump's statement, market panic subsided, and copper prices rebounded. However, there is still great uncertainty in the market's recovery due to the recurrence of the US - Iran conflict and the fundamental pressure of unexpected inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a cautious view of the later market and adopt a strategy of "buying in batches and allocating at low prices" [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the supply of alumina raw materials was blocked, and Iranian aluminum plants reduced production preventively. After the festival, northern manufacturers reduced production to cope with losses, and electrolytic aluminum plants made seasonal stockpiling. The increase in bauxite freight supported the cost of alumina, and the slight decrease in inventory led to a low - level recovery of alumina. The supply shock expectation and overseas low - inventory pressure of electrolytic aluminum conflicted with the weak domestic high - inventory reality. The geopolitical conflict is the current core focus, and the short - term trend of aluminum prices depends on the development of the conflict [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.11%, while Shanghai nickel rose 1.37%. Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a fatal landslide. Although the price of nickel ore is rising strongly, the weekly social inventory of primary nickel has increased significantly, showing great pressure. Considering the tightening of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia, the cost is rising, and there may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but there is also an expectation of supplementary quotas in July [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro aspect: The US - Iran conflict affected the market, but later the panic subsided. Inventory: LME inventory increased by 9,925 tons to 294,250 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,360 tons to 541,085 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,599 tons to 319,087 tons, and BC copper decreased by 624 tons to 13,630 tons. Demand: Downstream orders recovered, and the purchasing sentiment increased. Strategy: Be cautious about the later market and adopt a "buy in batches and allocate at low prices" strategy [1]. Aluminum - Price: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly overnight. Inventory: The inventory of alumina decreased slightly, and the supply shock of electrolytic aluminum coexisted with high domestic inventory. Factor: The geopolitical conflict is the main factor affecting short - term aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Price: LME nickel fell, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 132 tons to 287,418 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 329 tons to 53,897 tons. Event: Four nickel plants in Indonesia temporarily stopped production due to a landslide. Strategy: There may be short - term long - making opportunities based on the cost line, but be aware of the inventory pressure and the expectation of supplementary quotas [3]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market price: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 1,480 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper increased by 30 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 17,000 tons [5]. Aluminum - Market price: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory: The total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 15,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina increased by 51,000 tons [6]. Zinc - Market price: The main settlement price increased by 0.2%, and the spot price increased. Inventory: The social inventory increased by 4,700 tons [8]. Tin - Market price: The main settlement price decreased by 2.3%, and the spot price decreased by 19,000 yuan/ton. Inventory: The SHFE inventory decreased by 590 tons [8]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [10][16][22][28][34][41].