Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].

供应方面，广州期货指出，废铝原料供应偏紧价格整体保持稳定，有进口增量货源流入国内市场，临近 春节，部分企业对原料备货需求走增，成本端为铝合金价格提供较强支撑。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于行业淡季影响，下游压铸企业实际订单增量较少，向上采买 仅为刚需补货，消化库存为主，加之铸铝价格偏高位运行，其备货意愿亦不足。 1月30日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铸造铝合金期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿 主力合约报23110.0元/吨，跌幅达3.04%。 消息面上，上期所公告，经研究决定，自2026年1月30日(星期五)收盘结算时起，铸造铝合金期货已上 市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为9%。 展望后市，五矿期货表示，铸造铝合金成本端价格明显冲高回落，虽然需求相对一般，但在供应端扰动 持续和原料供应季节性偏紧背景下，短期价格预计仍有较强支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]

2026 年 1 月 30 日 PP：油价上行，成本支撑 商 品 研 究 【现货消息】 盘面偏强，上游预售压力暂不大，基差弱稳，成交氛围一般。下游近期随终端涨价，利润环比修复，开 工及订单有所回升，但年底需求暂难持续给出弹性，买盘持续性存疑，仓单维持高位。PP 美金市场价格持 稳。海外供应商对华报盘热情不高，出口因汇率走强及内盘上涨，下游延续刚需采购，交投难有改善。 【市场状况分析】 成本端：原油、丙烷价格偏强，烯烃内部估值分化，PE 内外及上游利润端估值高于 PP。供应端 2605 合 约前无新投产，存量供需博弈加剧。需求端，下游新单刚需跟进，年底整体基本面支撑有限，成本端 PDH 利 润维持低位，华南多套 PDH 装置给出检修预期,苏北一套 PP 计划重启，PDH 利润深度亏损下，重点关注 PDH 装置边际变化。 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 纯不 -苯乙烯目报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2026年1月30日 | | | | | | | 上游价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 单位 | 1月29日 | 1月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 布伦特原油(3月) | 70.71 | 68.40 | 2.31 | 3.4% | | | 美元/桶 WTI原油 (3月) | 65.42 | 63.21 | 2.21 | 3.5% | | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્રેસ | 585 | 11 | 1.9% | | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 700 | 700 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纳本 | 781 | 763 | 18 | 2.4% | 美元/吨 | | 纯本-石脑油 | 185 | 178 | 7 | 3.9% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 104 | 115 | -11 | -9.6% | | | 纯苯(中石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of iron ore are expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range oscillations with cost as the bottom support [2][11]. - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and is expected to oscillate within a range; coking coal is expected to oscillate within a range [2][15][16]. - The supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising [2][20]. - Logs are expected to oscillate within a range [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of futures I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.63%); the positions decreased by 6,440. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores declined slightly, and the basis increased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 futures were 3,123 yuan/ton and 3,280 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.39%. The positions of RB2605 increased by 29,747, and those of HC2605 increased by 9,222. Spot prices in most regions decreased or remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP's first - half iron ore output hit a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased in quantity and price. Some steel products are subject to export license management [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 were 5,632 and 5,606 respectively; the closing prices of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 were 5,802 and 5,832 respectively. Spot prices and various spreads changed to different extents [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The start - up rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai changed. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,134.5 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,684 yuan/ton, up 1.0%. Spot prices of most coking coals and cokes remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction had a 27% non - sale rate, and the market sentiment cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of change. The January long - term agreement prices of some regions decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the port market price was firm, with a slight increase in upstream quotes, but downstream demand was weak. The production area market was stable and slightly strong. In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, and the coal import volume in December 2025 exceeded expectations [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed to different degrees. The spot prices of most logs remained stable, and the spreads also changed [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].