Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel market is experiencing a fluctuating adjustment in mainstream product prices due to ongoing supply-demand contradictions, traditional off-season demand weakness, and changes in raw material costs [1][4]. Price Overview - Rebar (HRB400E 18-25mm) is quoted at 3170-3330 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton from the previous day, with limited high-price transactions [4]. - Medium and heavy plates (Q235B) are priced at 3870 CNY/ton for 8mm and 3500 CNY/ton for 20mm, facing downward pressure due to reduced manufacturing orders [4]. - Hot-rolled coils (Q235B/SS400) are quoted at 3420 CNY/ton for 3.0mm and 3360 CNY/ton for 4.75mm, with low demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - Wire rod (HPB300 8-10mm) is priced at 3390-3490 CNY/ton, with general market transactions [5]. - Hot-rolled strip steel (Q235B 3.5mm*685) remains stable at 3440 CNY/ton, with a lack of strong price support from traders [6]. Market Dynamics Analysis - Demand Side: The off-season effect continues, with insufficient release of demand [6]. - Construction industry: Slow funding for infrastructure projects and limited real estate construction intensity lead to low new project initiation rates [7]. - Manufacturing: Weak demand for plate products, particularly medium and heavy plates, due to reduced downstream orders [8]. - Supply Side: High production and inventory pressures coexist [9]. - Local steel mills maintain high production levels, while external resources increase competition, leading to inventory pressure [9]. - Rumors of environmental production restrictions have not materialized, creating a contradiction between steel mills' pricing intentions and actual market transactions [10]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices support the bottom of steel prices [11]. - Iron ore and coke prices remain high, with steel billet costs rising to 3080 CNY/ton, compressing profit margins for steel mills [11]. - Macroeconomic and Futures Market: Policy expectations and financial attributes significantly influence the market [12]. - In July, special bond issuance exceeded 600 billion CNY, improving infrastructure investment expectations in Chengdu, but market sentiment remains cautious regarding policy implementation [12]. - Fluctuations in the futures market dominate spot market sentiment, with weak futures prices suppressing market confidence [12]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the Chengdu steel market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly [13]. - Demand Side: Insufficient enthusiasm for terminal procurement and ongoing off-season effects hinder significant improvements in transactions [13]. - Supply Side: High production levels and inventory pressures create significant resistance to price increases [14]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices provide support, but compressed profits may inhibit capacity release [15]. - In the long term, as infrastructure projects gradually materialize and environmental production restrictions are implemented, combined with the release of demand during the autumn construction peak, the market may see a recovery [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, Urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - **Bearish**: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - **L**: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - **PVC**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - **Urea**: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - **Asphalt**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry News**: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industry News**: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - **Industry News**: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term performance of the energy and chemical industry [7][9][11][12][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30][31][33][34][35]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector as a whole is in an oscillatory pattern. The root cause of this oscillation lies in the divergence between the industry and the macro - environment, as well as the divergence between domestic products and foreign raw materials. Most chemical products are facing negative basis and increasing warehouse receipts [2]. - Crude oil is under pressure from supply increases and inventory accumulation, with a short - term oscillatory trend. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand, and geopolitical situations, showing different oscillatory characteristics [7][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - International crude oil futures are slightly weaker due to concerns about increased supply. The macro - environment is influenced by factors such as the postponement of high - tariff collection between China and the United States and US inflation data, which has led to speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts. The chemical product market is in the process of shifting the main positions from the September contract to the January contract [1]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The short - term outlook is oscillatory, and the price is relatively under pressure [7]. - **Main Logic**: The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin reduces concerns about Russian oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined. OPEC's production increase has brought supply pressure, and the crude oil inventory faces the dual pressure of the peak - to - decline in refinery operations and OPEC +'s accelerated production increase [7]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase in September, the upcoming meeting between Russian and US leaders, and other factors have brought negative impacts. The supply tension has eased, and the demand outlook is not optimistic [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It is in a weak oscillatory state [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s production increase, the increase in heavy - oil supply, and the weakening of demand factors such as the decline in feedstock demand and weak gasoline demand in the US have led to an oversupply situation [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the weak oscillation of crude oil [12]. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution [12]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price has support, and it is in an oscillatory state [27]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in Inner Mongolia has tightened, supporting the price. The port inventory has increased, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices [27]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The downward trend of the futures price has暂缓, waiting for positive support [28]. - **Main Logic**: There is no effective fundamental support currently, but the low - price new orders have increased, and the market is supported by downstream buying at low prices [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The cost raw materials are differentiated, and its own driving force is limited, showing an oscillatory pattern [22]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw materials show a pattern of strong coal and weak oil, and the supply and demand are stable. The inventory accumulation in ports is not sustainable [22]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The cost has stopped falling and stabilized, and the bottom support has been strengthened with the restart of downstream devices [15]. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of oil prices and the restart of downstream PTA devices have provided support, and the short - term price will oscillate with cost and sentiment [15]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The device maintenance has returned, and the polyester sales have cooled down, with an oscillatory trend [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the supply has increased with the restart of devices, and the downstream polyester sales are not sustainable, so the supply - demand drive is weak [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by sentiment, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up opportunistically [24]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is rising, and downstream yarn mills are stocking up due to sentiment, but its own fundamental driving force is weak [24]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by raw materials, with an oscillatory pattern [25]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is strong, and the price follows the cost. The processing fee is slightly compressed, and the price is anchored to the cost [25]. 3.2.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance is stable, and it is in an oscillatory state [30]. - **Main Logic**: The coal and oil markets have an impact, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the export window is limited [30][31]. 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is reasonable, and PL is in short - term oscillation [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance in Shandong has increased, and the spot price is strong. The short - term price follows PP and methanol [31]. 3.2.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance has decreased, the inventory has increased, and it is in an oscillatory state [29]. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is oscillating weakly, the supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - to - peak season transition, and the overseas situation needs attention [29]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The import arrival has decreased, and downstream production has started, leading to increased buying interest and a shift to a Back structure [18]. - **Main Logic**: The reduction in import arrival and the start of downstream production have boosted the market sentiment, and the port inventory has decreased [18][20]. 3.2.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in factories [21]. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene provides some cost support, but the supply - demand situation is weak, with new device production and potential inventory accumulation in factories [21]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: It is supported by cost and is in an oscillatory state [34]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment and supply - demand factors co - exist. The cost is expected to rise, the supply is increasing, and the export has improved [34]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is in short - term oscillation [35]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with increased demand from alumina production and a slight improvement in export orders [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different cross - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various products are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [39]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spread data between different products are provided, which is useful for understanding the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [41]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also mentions the basis and spread monitoring of specific chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., but detailed data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided text [42][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract continued to rise. Macroscopically, the joint statement of the China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm announced the suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025. On the supply side, the production restrictions in Tangshan affected market sentiment, and the sharp rise in furnace materials supported steel prices from the cost side. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards, and the red bars were expanding. Operationally, it is recommended to be bullish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,381,560 lots, up 6,551 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -48,510 lots, down 4,583 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 6 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 79,286 tons, up 8,925 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 226 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 46 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 782 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 137.1227 million tons, up 0.5437 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 443,600 tons, down 19,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.193 million tons, down 74,800 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1536 million tons, up 43,400 tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.77%, up 0.29 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.07%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.1489 million tons, down 79,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 80.44%, down 2.02 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 778,800 tons, down 14,200 tons [2]. - 33 - city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.7875 million tons, up 101,000 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.384 million tons, up 0.174 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.591 million vehicles, down 203,100 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.593 million vehicles, down 311,500 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioners: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerators: 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units [2]. - Household washing machines: 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities. Eligible loans can enjoy the interest subsidy policy, which is issued by the handling banks to business entities in 8 consumption - related service industries such as catering, accommodation, health, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, cultural entertainment, tourism, and sports [2]. - The National Mine Safety Administration will hold a special press conference on the new version of the Coal Mine Safety Regulations at 10:00 am on August 13 to introduce the background, principles, significance, and main revised contents of the regulations and respond to media concerns [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].