Report Summary 1) Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical turmoil, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, the US dollar credit crisis, and the global political and economic situation support the medium - to long - term upward trend of gold prices. With important US economic data such as non - farm payrolls to be released this week, precious metals may experience sharp fluctuations. It is necessary to control positions and participate cautiously before the holiday. Also, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings in March today [1]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Content Tariff - related News - Trump believes there is no red line to change his tariff policy according to an interview in The Atlantic. - The US Treasury Secretary said the first trade agreement might be reached as early as this week or next week, and India could be among the first batch. - German Chancellor - elect Merz will urge Trump to cancel all tariffs [2]. Russia - Ukraine - related News - Putin announced a 72 - hour cease - fire from 0:00 on May 8th to 0:00 on May 11th during the Victory Day celebration of the Great Patriotic War. - US media reported that the US and Ukraine will sign a mineral agreement as soon as this week. - Zelensky said the mineral agreement with the US has become "more stable and fair" after negotiations [2].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing airstrikes by the US military against Houthi forces are escalating the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with significant implications for global asset pricing [1] - The Houthis, supported by Iran, are disrupting maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which is in direct conflict with the US's efforts to maintain "freedom of navigation" [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Impact - The Red Sea crisis is leading to a restructuring of global shipping routes, with 75% of Eurasian container ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 40% increase in costs for the China-Europe route [3] - The daily oil transport volume through the Suez Canal, which is 1.2 million barrels, faces interruption risks, contributing to an 8% weekly increase in international oil prices [3] - The blockade of the Ras Isa port by Houthi forces has caused a 90% disruption in Yemen's fuel imports, creating a local supply crisis that contrasts with global oil surplus expectations [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market is exhibiting typical risk-hedging characteristics, maintaining high volatility after surpassing $3,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly after signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high interest rates, casting a shadow over gold's upward momentum [4] - The scale of US national debt, at $36.6 trillion, and the ongoing unconventional monetary policy are undermining the credibility of the dollar [4] Group 4: Systemic Risks - Three systemic risks threaten market stability: prolonged Red Sea conflict leading to rising oil transport costs, potential liquidity crisis in the US Treasury market prompting policy shifts, and the risk of direct conflict between Saudi forces and Houthis affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5] Group 5: Strategic Insights for Investors - The military actions by the US Navy, while appearing assertive, reveal deeper strategic dilemmas in the Middle East [6] - Investors may need to adjust to a new normal where "geopolitical premiums" on gold and oil become standard, while the dollar's safe-haven status is challenged by policy inconsistencies and debt issues [6] - Future market directions will depend on the recovery of Red Sea shipping routes, signals from the Federal Reserve's May meeting, and Iran's support for Houthi forces [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish approach towards the iron ore market [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term supply - demand relationship of iron ore has improved, supporting the price, but the continued upside for the black series is limited. The mid - term supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose. The price will mainly move in a range, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level, with molten iron production maintaining around 2.4 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks. However, the profits of blast furnace steel mills have been significantly compressed, and the impact of tariffs on exports will gradually emerge. Although short - term demand remains high due to pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, the rise and duration of molten iron production are expected to be limited [3][4] Inventory - Steel mill inventories continue to decline, and they are expected to maintain low inventory levels and purchase on - demand. Port inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks due to strong domestic steel mill demand and a phased decline in arrivals. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price pressure range for the 2509 contract is 720 - 730 yuan/ton [4]

近日，商务部牵头推进内外贸一体化，一场由互联网平台、零售巨头和直播电商共同驱动 的"内销变革"正在展开。阿里巴巴、京东、美团等平台集体出手，为外贸企业铺就了一条"回 家"的快车道——平台们各显神通：简化入驻流程、流量扶持、托管运营，甚至教工厂老板学 直播带货。 本期《财经早察》来聊聊关税战下的"内销"变革，各大平台应对关税战都有哪些"中国解 法"？ 出品： 财经早察工作室 总统筹：邓红辉 执行统筹：陈晨星 祝乃娟 主播：董静怡 编辑： 洪晓文 陆跃玲 曾婷芳 设计： 王冰 SFC 本期编辑 黎雨桐 关税漩涡中的苹果 6G要来了！下一个万亿赛道？ 美债风波背后是美元信用危机 "对等关税"落锤，特朗普为何单挑全世界？ 21君荐读 ...

每经编辑 肖芮冬 4月23日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.67%，创业板指涨1.07%。全市场成交额12625亿元，较上一交易日放量1413亿元。黄 金股今日深度调整，午后跌幅进一步扩大。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘下跌7.09%、黄金基金ETF（518800）收跌5.93% 【下跌原因分析】避险情绪缓和，美元指数与美股反弹，金价回调。 今年以来，受美国关税政策的不确定性、经济衰退预期升温等因素影响，美元信用受损、市场避险情绪高涨，投资者大幅抛售美元资产，形成美股、美债、 美元同步下跌的"股债汇三杀"局面。黄金价格趋势较强、上涨逻辑较为清晰扎实，金价持续攀升、屡创新高。 今日受特朗普关税政策有望缓和的消息影响，市场避险情绪回落，美股、美元反弹，美股三大指数集体收涨；黄金价格回调，COMEX黄金自高点回撤 5.91%，SHFE黄金自高点回撤6.37%。 消息面上看，一方面，美国关税政策预期转好。另一方面，美元信用危机短暂缓和。特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，呵护意味明显，减弱了市场对 于美联储独立性以及美元信用的担忧。 黄金的回调，一方面是市场消息使得此前的恐慌情绪有 ...

经济刺激：通过施压降息对冲关税政策的负面影响。美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，但一季度GDP增速放缓至1.8%，滞胀风险加 剧。特朗普试图将经济困境归咎于鲍威尔的"政策滞后"。政治博弈：为2026年连任铺路。若美联储在大选前降息，可能提振市场信心，但若鲍 威尔拒绝妥协，特朗普需通过"换人"重塑政策路径。 鲍威尔多次强调美联储的独立性。4月16日，他在公开讲话中明确表示："美联储的决策基于经济数据，而非政治压力。"根据美国法律，总统 无权随意解雇美联储主席，除非能证明其"渎职或不当行为"。历史判例显示，政策分歧无法构成解职理由。鲍威尔已表态，若遭遇法律挑战， 将通过司法程序抗争到底。 但特朗普正试图突破这一传统。他在4月21日白宫会议上宣称："如果我想让他离职，他很快就得走。"其团队甚至计划推动最高法院重新解释 《联邦储备法》，削弱央行独立性。 2025年4月22日，国际金融市场因特朗普政府与美联储的激烈博弈陷入剧烈震荡。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体连续炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，称 其为"最大输家"和"Mr.Too Late"，并威胁"立即让他走人"。这一言论直接引发美股"黑色星期一"——道指暴跌2.48% ...

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

Group 1 - The core event in the international gold market is the spot gold price surpassing $3,400 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $3,407.73, with a daily increase of 2.25% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by four main factors: the dollar credit crisis, escalating trade tensions, central bank gold accumulation, and technical market movements [2][3][4][5] Group 2 - The dollar credit crisis is highlighted by the dollar index dropping to a three-year low of 98.00, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency, which in turn boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset [2] - The escalation of the trade war, with tariffs on China increasing to 245%, has led to fears of supply chain disruptions, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold, with a cumulative price increase of over $700 since 2025 and a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 73.7 million ounces and a 3% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases, totaling 1,238 tons, marking the highest level since 2016 [4] - Technical factors include a breakout above the $3,200 resistance level, with speculative long positions increasing by 42,000 contracts in a single day and over $5 billion flowing into global gold ETFs in the first quarter [5] Group 3 - Despite the bullish trend in gold, market sentiment is polarized, with signs of leverage risks emerging as younger investors use credit cards and personal loans to speculate on gold, potentially inflating localized bubbles [7] - Short-term outlook suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,500 due to a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, but overbought signals indicate potential profit-taking risks, with $3,245 as a key support level [9] - Long-term projections indicate that ongoing stagflation risks, U.S. election policy dynamics, and central bank gold purchasing trends will continue to support gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 by 2026, and possibly exceed $4,500 in extreme scenarios [9]

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price reached an unprecedented high of $3,400 per ounce on April 21, 2025, marking a historic milestone and sparking widespread discussion among investors regarding future gold price trends [1][3]. Price Movement and Technical Analysis - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have shown a steady upward trend, with a 2.2% increase leading to the record price of $3,400 per ounce as of April 21 [3]. - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates that gold is currently in an overbought state, and low trading volume may exaggerate price movements, yet buyers remain strong [3]. - A daily close above $3,400 per ounce is necessary for buyers to target the psychological level of $3,450 per ounce [3]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The escalation of trade wars has heightened tensions among global economies, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The U.S. dollar's credit crisis, with a fiscal deficit rate exceeding 6.6% and the dollar index dropping to 98.5, has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [4]. - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have increased gold reserves, indicating sustained interest in gold [4]. - Uncertainty in Federal Reserve monetary policy has also contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [4]. Future Outlook - Experts and institutions maintain an optimistic view on the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices, with UBS raising its year-end price forecast to $3,500 per ounce and suggesting a potential extreme scenario of $4,000 per ounce [5]. - However, there are warnings about the risks of crowded long positions in the short term, particularly in domestic markets, as overseas events may continue to disrupt the market [5]. - It is advised that investors diversify their asset portfolios while rationally assessing their risk tolerance and liquidity, avoiding excessive speculative asset allocation [5].

2025年4月21日，美元指数（DXY）延续跌势，盘中最低触及98.164，较前一交易日收盘价重挫1.03%，创下2022年4月以来的三年新低。受此影响，欧元兑 美元汇率飙升至1.1485，英镑兑美元突破1.3350，日元兑美元则因日本央行干预预期走强至141.80。这场汇率风暴的背后，是跨国美企集体启动"超长防御 战"——苹果、特斯拉等企业将汇率对冲周期从常规的3-6个月延长至2-5年，创下近十年罕见纪录。现货黄金价格突破3390美元/盎司，较前一日上涨1.68%， 刷新历史高点，市场对"美元信用危机"的担忧进一步加剧。 一、美元暴跌的多维驱动逻辑 美联储政策转向的"蝴蝶效应" 市场对美联储降息的预期持续升温，联邦基金利率期货显示，2025年累计降息幅度已达90个基点。尽管鲍威尔在4月FOMC会议上强调"数据依赖"，但美国 一季度GDP增速放缓至1.8%、核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，迫使投资者重新定价美元资产。高盛最新报告指出，美元指数可能在年底前下探95关口，创 2018年以来新低。 特朗普关税政策的"冲击波" 供应链的"地缘重组" 通用汽车宣布将墨西哥工厂产能提升50%，以规避美元汇率波动对北美 ...