期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at 0.6668 against the US dollar (USD), with market focus on the diverging monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA has recently signaled a hawkish stance, maintaining the cash rate at 3.6% and indicating no immediate rate cuts, which supports the AUD [1] - In contrast, the Fed is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points in December, with a probability of 82.9%, which is pressuring the USD and providing upward momentum for the AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's inflation rate rose to 3.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the target range of 2%-3%, which supports the RBA's hawkish position [1] - However, the GDP growth for Q3 was only 0.4%, significantly below the expected 0.7%, which may limit the RBA's ability to tighten monetary policy further [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD shows a clear bullish trend, having broken through a descending parallel channel and is approaching a key resistance level at 0.6650 [2] - Indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest potential upward movement but also indicate risks of volatility [2] - A breakthrough above 0.6650 could lead to a target of 0.6707, while support is found in the 0.6550-0.6520 range [2] Group 4: Future Focus - Upcoming events include the Fed's meeting, which is expected to increase volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate [2] - The divergence in policies between the RBA and Fed, along with Australia's economic recovery and commodity price trends, will be crucial in determining the future direction of the AUD [2]

同时，白银的价格远低于黄金，吸引了寻求更低成本避险资产的投资者，刺激了银价的上涨。根据世界 白银协会数据，2025年全球白银总投资需求（银条银币+ETF）在13.34亿盎司（约4.14万吨），同比增 长8.2%，创历史新高，占全球白银总需求的37%，成为支撑银价的核心力量。 目前，全球的白银库存持续下降，中国的白银库存已处于十年来的低点。 展望后市，白银短缺或将持续，机构预计白银有望在2026年上半年突破每盎司70美元！ 落脚到A股市场，价格上升将直接增厚白银采选企业利润，具备全产业链布局的企业营收与利润弹性显 著，关注白银开采冶炼龙头企业。（光大证券微资讯） 12月10日，现货白银向上突破61美元/盎司，再创历史新高！ 白银价格创新高是货币属性与商品（工业）属性共振的结果。 一方面，美联储12月降息窗口临近，降息预期导致美元走弱及实际利率下行，提升了贵金属的吸引力， 黄金、白银齐涨。 另一方面，工业需求结构性扩张提供长期支撑：光伏领域是核心驱动力，光伏银浆耗银量巨大，机构预 计2025年全球光伏用银预计将突破5200吨；此外，新能源汽车及AI算力中心建设也成为年内白银工业 需求激增的重要助力，白银还在更广泛 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 静待消费跟上，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟上，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资者对美联储降息预期较为乐观，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略 偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1- 2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消 费抑制将限制进一步走高，基本金属转为震荡整固，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低 吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰 动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应存收缩预期，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价⽌跌企稳。 ...

受全球供需缺口持续扩大、强劲工业消费以及投资者兴趣重燃等因素影响，白银价格自8月下旬以来快 速上涨，今年价格涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。 美国联邦储备委员会降息预期也助推白银价格上涨。美联储定于9日和10日举行货币政策会议并公布议 息决定。市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点。 受强劲基本面拉动，芝加哥期货交易所明年3月交割的白银期货价格9日大幅上涨，场内交易一度突破每 盎司61美元，白银现货价格也突破每盎司60美元关口，创历史新高。 此外，全球资金大量涌入以白银为支撑的交易所交易产品（ETP），进一步强化银价上涨趋势。分析人 士认为，白银价格将继续保持稳健上升趋势，但短期大概率呈高位震荡态势，回调风险不容忽视。新华 社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in the A-share market has shown a significant upward trend, driven by multiple factors including supply constraints, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and increasing downstream demand [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - The small metals sector has experienced notable price increases, particularly in tungsten, which has reached historical highs. As of December 10, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) is priced at 363,000 yuan/ton, up 153.85% year-to-date; ammonium paratungstate (APT) is at 535,000 yuan/ton, up 153.55%; and tungsten powder is at 880 yuan/kg, up 178.48% [3][5]. - Other metals such as cobalt and tin have also seen significant price increases, with cobalt averaging 408,000 yuan/ton (up 16.91% since October) and tin rising 13.89% over the same period [3][5]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The price increases are attributed to supply-side constraints, such as strict mining quotas and environmental regulations affecting tungsten, and ongoing export restrictions on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically weakens the dollar and supports commodity prices [5]. - Downstream demand from industries like new energy, semiconductors, and defense is rapidly growing, boosting expectations for strategic small metals [5]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - The small metals sector has seen significant capital inflows, with a net inflow of 1.732 billion yuan on December 10, ranking high among secondary industries [6]. - Notably, Western Materials received a net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, with its stock achieving a strong performance in recent trading sessions [6]. - Financing net purchases in the small metals sector reached 1.879 billion yuan in December, with several stocks, including China Uranium Industry, receiving substantial net purchases [6]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The small metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with a total net profit of 13.589 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.42% [7]. - Companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth have reported significant profit increases of 748.07% and 280.27%, respectively [7]. - Shenghe Resources is expanding its production capacity, with a project expected to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged, breaking historical records, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tight supply conditions in the silver market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - London silver prices surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time, reaching over $61 per ounce, with a maximum daily increase of over 1% [1]. - As of December 10, silver has seen a cumulative increase of 111% this year, significantly outperforming gold, which rose approximately 60% in the same period [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key driver of the rising silver prices, supported by a series of weak economic data from the U.S. [2]. - The market has already priced in the likelihood of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with comments from potential new chairperson suggesting a significant easing of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The tight supply of silver remains a critical factor, with over 25,000 tons of silver locked in ETFs, contributing to the scarcity in the London market [5]. - The upcoming delivery month for silver at the COMEX exchange has led to increased demand for physical silver, further tightening market liquidity [5]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Investment sentiment in silver has become more rational compared to the previous "hoarding" phase, with some consumers feeling the current prices are too high [6]. - Analysts predict that if industrial and investment demand exceeds expectations, silver prices could potentially reach $65 per ounce by early 2026, with some forecasts suggesting prices could hit $100 per ounce by the end of next year [6].

白银现货价格也在同一时间突破每盎司60美元，创下历史新高。这一价格意味着白银在2025年的涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。 自8月下旬以来，这种被称为"魔鬼金属"的贵金属开始了一轮前所未有的上涨行情。市场分析师们将这场白银狂潮归因于三重动力的共振：供应端的刚性约 束、新能源革命带来的工业需求爆发，以及全球资金对贵金属的重新配置。 芝加哥期货交易所的交易屏上，白银期货价格数字不断跳动，最终定格在每盎司61美元上方，交易大厅里响起一阵短暂的惊呼。 01 历史性突破 2025年12月9日，国际贵金属市场见证了一个历史性时刻。芝加哥期货交易所明年3月交割的白银期货价格在盘中一度突破每盎司61美元。 今年以来，白银价格涨幅已超过100%，表现远超黄金。从10月开始，白银已多次刷新历史高点，10月中旬曾触及每盎司54.44美元，11月28日COMEX白银 期货达到57.245美元/盎司。 02 供应危机 白银价格的飙升首先源于供应端的刚性约束。全球白银库存已降至近10年低位，且连续五年出现供应缺口。 伦敦金银市场协会的白银库存从2022年6月的31023吨大幅降至2025年3月的22126吨，降幅高达约三分之一。 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has officially entered the $60 era, with COMEX silver futures breaking through the $60/oz mark and reaching a high of $62.14/oz, while spot silver hit a record of $61.6/oz, reflecting a significant increase in demand and speculation in the market [1][2]. Price Movement - As of December 10, COMEX silver futures have accumulated a rise of over 109% year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase during the same period, indicating a strong bullish trend in the silver market [1]. - The Shanghai silver futures price has also seen a cumulative increase of 24%, surpassing 14,419 yuan/kg [2]. Market Dynamics - Speculative funds have heavily entered the market, contributing to the strong performance of silver, while exchanges have raised margin requirements and price limits to manage volatility [3]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to two main factors: the inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list and an increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations from 40% to 95% [3]. Supply and Inventory - Global silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver inventory dropping from 16,500 tons to 14,200 tons in two months, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - As of the end of November, the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was at 559 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange inventory was at 716 tons, both at near 10-year lows [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the silver price may continue to rise due to ongoing supply tightness and potential trade policy restrictions, which could allow silver to outperform gold [4]. - However, there is a need to monitor the delivery situation of COMEX silver in December and changes in inventory levels, as any easing of supply constraints could lead to significant price volatility [4]. - Standard Chartered Bank notes that while leasing rates remain high, they have decreased from October levels, and the increase in available inventory in London suggests that market tightness is easing, potentially leading to high-level fluctuations in silver prices [5].

金价仍在高位震荡，白银却已率先狂欢。 12月10日，白银现货价格延续飙升，伦敦银现站上60美元/盎司关口，续创历史新高。截至记者发稿， 伦敦银现报61.456美元/盎司，日内涨1.31%，盘中最高触及61.607美元/盎司，年内伦敦银现涨幅超 110%。 | COMEX白银 | | | | ਟੀ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 61.865 | | | +1.025 +1.68% | | | | COMEX USD 3:00:01 延时15分钟 | | | 1 | | 卖五 | 61.895 | | 2 | | | 变四 | 61.890 | | 4 | | | 卖三 | 61.885 | | 5 | | | 卖二 | 61.880 | | 5 | | | = | 61.875 | | 4 | | | 云一 | 61.865 | | 2 | -1 | | 买二 | 61.860 | | 4 | | | 北三 | 61.855 | | 2 | | | 云园 | 61.850 | | 6 | | | 买五 | 61.845 | | 1 | -1 | | 总量 | 30464 ...