Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are easing but still pose concerns. Gold prices are approaching the $5000 mark. The U.S. economy shows strength, but geopolitical uncertainties and potential changes in the Fed chairperson may affect market sentiment. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][4]. - In the domestic market, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, which will promote the stable development of the capital market. The A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly final value was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, supported by strong exports, reduced inventory drag, and consumer resilience. The core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. The 11 - month PCE price index was in line with market expectations, and the market priced the next interest rate cut in June. Geopolitical tensions have eased temporarily, but long - term concerns remain. The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.3, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and gold and silver reached new highs while copper and oil prices declined [2]. - Domestic: There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The A - share market closed higher with a slight increase in trading volume. The market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4900 for the first time, closing up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties have increased the demand for hedging, pushing up precious metal prices. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks and concerns about the independence of the Fed are expected to keep gold and silver prices strong [4][5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper rebounded slightly. The spot market trading was poor, and the inventory increased. The Q3 2025 U.S. GDP growth rate was revised up, and geopolitical risks led to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment. Rio Tinto's Q4 production increased by 5% year - on - year. It is expected that copper prices will enter a weak oscillation in the short term, but the downside adjustment space may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24055 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The LME closed at $3137.5 per ton, up 0.64%. The U.S. economic data was mixed, and the geopolitical tension in Greenland eased. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly this week, but the de - stocking is expected to be difficult to continue with the arrival of the off - season. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate [8][9]. Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, up 1.8%. Overseas and domestic news has led to a rebound in alumina futures prices, but the actual supply impact is limited, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the rebound of alumina prices will not last, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22855 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The consumption improvement of cast aluminum is limited, the cost decline is limited, and the supply - side start - up is stable at a low level. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and it is expected to remain oscillating [11]. Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and strengthened at night, and LME zinc closed up. The U.S. economic performance is strong, the inflation meets expectations, and the dollar falls, boosting zinc prices. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the global zinc ore supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [12][13]. Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. After the decline of lead prices slowed down, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm improved, and some enterprises started pre - holiday stockpiling. Environmental protection control in Shandong and Hebei has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate stably, but the upward driving force is not strong for now [14][15]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and strengthened at night, and LME tin oscillated horizontally. Geopolitical concerns have dissipated, and the U.S. economic data is strong, boosting risk appetite. The terminal order demand is sluggish, the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and the supply has no new changes. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. Steel and Iron Products - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures oscillated. Affected by seasonal demand, market trading weakened. The output of five major steel products was stable, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory gradually increased. It is expected that steel prices will mainly oscillate [17]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures oscillated. The central bank signaled monetary easing, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The pre - holiday restocking expectation provides some support, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment was weak and stable. The supply of upstream coal mines continued to resume production, and the demand of downstream steel mills was weak. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal 05 contract closed up 1.50%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed up 1.21%. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase. The precipitation in central Brazil may affect the harvest, and the drought in Argentina has led to increased speculation. It is expected that the soybean meal will oscillate and rebound in the short term [20][21]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil 05 contract closed up 1.59%. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in January, but the U.S. biodiesel policy expectation and the improvement of palm oil export and production contraction support the price. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [22].

Core Insights - The global economy is entering a "virtuous but complex" new phase, characterized by robust growth but significant structural differentiation among major economies [1][2][3] Economic Growth - Global real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.8% in 2026, slightly above the market consensus of 2.5% [1][6] - The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate from a growth rate of 2.1% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, driven by reduced tariff drag, fiscal stimulus from new tax legislation, and easing financial conditions due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and AI investment [1][10] - China's economy is forecasted to grow by 4.8%, supported by a strong manufacturing and export sector, particularly in critical resources like rare earths, which offsets domestic demand pressures [1][14] Employment Trends - Despite economic growth, job market expansion is slowing, with rising unemployment rates in major developed economies, particularly in the U.S. [2][5] - The disconnect between growth and employment is partly attributed to productivity gains, especially from AI, which have not yet significantly impacted job creation [2][11] Price Stability - Core inflation in developed economies is expected to gradually decline to near the 2% policy target by 2026, aided by a slowdown in housing inflation and wage growth [2][5] - The easing of inflationary pressures creates conditions for a shift in monetary policy among major central banks [2][3] Policy Outlook - A "converging decline" in global monetary policy is anticipated, with the Fed likely to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of England may also follow suit [3][5] - Emerging market central banks will exhibit varied policies, with some regions expected to pursue further monetary easing [3] Market Implications - The macroeconomic backdrop is seen as favorable for risk assets like stocks, although tensions between growth and valuation concerns may intensify [5]

（朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 1、债市表现：1月MLF大幅净投放，资金面边际转松，同时12月经济数据整体符合预期，本周债市迎 来小幅修复。截止01月23日收盘，2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债收益率分别收于1.40%、 1.60%、1.83%、2.29%，较01月16日分别变动-0.84BP、-1.34BP、-1.26BP、-1.65BP。截止01月23日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约分别收于102.418元、105.88元、108.195元、112.3元，较01月16日变动分 别为0.02%、0.07%、0.12%、1.03%。 2、政策动态：本周中国央行开展11810亿元7天期逆回购和9000亿元1年期MLF操作，因同期共有9515 亿元7天期逆回购到期，本周实现净投放11295亿元。下周央行公开市场将有11810亿元7天期逆回购到 期。1月26日有2000亿元的1年期MLF到期。2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为 3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。截止目前，LPR已连续8个月 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘不稳定因素仍是油价上涨的催化剂 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价收涨，尤其是周五油价日内涨幅超过3%，截止周五，WTI 3月合约收盘上至61.07美元/桶， 周度涨幅3.48%。布伦特3月合约收盘至65.88美元/桶，周度涨幅1.93%。SC2603夜盘收盘在449.8元/桶。 油价整体仍受到地缘因素的驱动而表现震荡偏强，美国财政部在声明中表示，还将对参与运输伊朗石油 和石油产品的九艘船只及八家相关公司实施制裁。消息称包括航空母舰和导弹驱逐舰在内的战舰将在未 来几天抵达中东。 2、三大机构对2026年原油及相关产品需求增速仍存在分歧，其中EIA认为供应过剩格局仍将加剧，IEA 则小幅上调需求增速预期。具体来看，EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测。预计 2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/日。EIA下调对2026年需求增 速9万桶至114万桶/日，2027年需求增速为126万桶/日。EIA继续上调对2026年全球原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The US Treasury market remained stable this week, continuing the high - level slight fluctuation pattern. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. - The US economy accelerated expansion in Q3, but there are risks of weakening growth momentum driven by consumption due to high inflation [24]. - The US labor market has strong resilience, and inflation pressure remains sticky [25][26]. - Different asset classes showed different trends this week, with some rising and some falling [11][28][29][30][31][32]. Summary by Directory 1. US Treasury Yield Review This Week 1.1 US Treasuries Continue High - Level Slight Fluctuation Pattern - Yield changes of US Treasuries from January 16th to 23rd, 2026: 1 - month (+3bp, 3.78%), 1 - year (-2bp, 3.53%), 2 - year (+1bp, 3.60%), 5 - year (+2bp, 3.84%), 10 - year (0bp, 4.24%), 30 - year (-1bp, 4.82%). The US Treasury market was stable despite geopolitical disturbances in the equity market. The economic data of Q3 2025 was good, and inflation was in line with expectations. The FOMC meeting next week is expected to maintain the current monetary policy [2][15]. 1.2 US Treasury Auctions This Week - The auction of 20 - year US notes on January 21st was weak. The auction size was $13 billion, the winning yield was 4.846%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.86 times (higher than the previous value), and the tail spread was - 1.025 (lower than the previous value). Indirects were allocated 64.7%, Directs 29.1%, and Primary 6.2% [20]. 2. Review of US Macroeconomic Indicators - **Business Index**: In January 2026, the preliminary data of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly up from 51.8 in December, indicating a slow - down in the improvement momentum. The preliminary data of the US S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, the same as the previous month but slightly lower than the market expectation, indicating a slow - down in the growth momentum. The US Q3 GDP (annualized quarterly - on - quarterly) reached 4.4%, higher than the forecast and the previous value, achieving the fastest growth in two years [4][24]. - **Inflation**: In November 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth slightly up from 2.7% in October, in line with market expectations, showing sticky inflation pressure [5][25][26]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US after seasonal adjustment increased by 1,000 to 200,000, higher than the previous value but better than the market expectation, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][25]. 3. Review of Major Asset Classes - **Bonds**: German bond yields rose overall, and Japanese bond yields remained at a high level. The rise in German bond yields was due to the market's reaction to the marginal tightening of ECB policy and the revision of inflation/growth expectations. The significant increase in Japanese bond yields was due to concerns about large - scale bond supply and bond market liquidity [28]. - **Equities**: Asian markets performed strongly, while European and Indian markets were under pressure. The top three gainers were the Korean Composite Index, the Russian MOEX, and the A - share Shanghai Composite Index. The top three losers were the Indian Sensex30, the German DAX, and the French CAC40 [29]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and crude oil rose due to safe - haven and geopolitical factors, while Bitcoin, live pigs, and coking coal declined. The top three gainers were London silver, London gold, and Brent crude oil. The top three losers were Bitcoin, the live pig index, and the coking coal index [30][31]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and Asian currencies were under pressure overall. The top three gainers were the Russian ruble, the Swiss franc, and the euro. The only two decliners among major global foreign exchanges were the Indian rupee and the Hong Kong dollar [32]. 4. Market Tracking - The report provides various charts to show the changes in bond yields, stock indices, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [34][44][49][54].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that low interest rates and inflation are prompting individuals to seek alternative investment options beyond traditional savings accounts to preserve their purchasing power [2][4][5] - In 2025, the consumer price index is expected to rise only 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 1.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Bank deposit yields continue to decline, with one-year products often below 1% and five-year products ranging from 1.3% to 1.8% [4] Group 2 - Global reserve institutions have increased their gold purchases, acquiring 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, with an annual forecast of 755 tons, leading to a significant rise in gold prices from $2,313 to $4,318, an increase of over 86% [7] - Individuals are advised to invest in gold gradually, using funds or paper gold to average costs and avoid market peaks [9] - High-return equities are gaining popularity, with the ChiNext Index rising by 49.57% and the STAR 50 Index by 35.92% in 2025, while the total scale of the CSI 300 fund exceeded 200 billion, reaching 11,855 billion [9][11] Group 3 - In 2025, core city real estate prices are expected to remain stable, with new home prices in Beijing rising by 11% and in Shanghai by 5.8%, indicating a healthy rental market [11][13] - The rental yield in major cities is favorable, ranging from 2% to 5%, which is higher than five-year government bonds, suggesting a shift towards long-term property investment [11] - The investment strategy should focus on quality locations and long-term holding, avoiding speculative investments in lower-tier cities [11][13] Group 4 - Savings insurance and long-term government bonds are recommended for locking in returns, with expected yields of 1.89% for 2026, potentially holding at 2% [14] - The insurance sector is projected to perform strongly in 2025, with dividend insurance exceeding 70 billion, indicating a robust market for long-term financial products [14] - Investment strategies should diversify across four categories: emergency funds, equity investments for returns, and long-term allocations in gold, real estate, and government bonds [14][16] Group 5 - High-net-worth individuals are shifting their investment strategies, increasing allocations in stocks and gold while reducing exposure to residential and commercial properties [16] - The total amount of household savings has increased, with an average of approximately 118,000 per person, indicating a significant potential for stock market investments [16] - The gold ETF market is expected to grow from 730 billion in 2025 to 2,361 billion, reflecting a 223% increase, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [16]

Core Insights - The latest data from the US indicates a slight increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for November, aligning with market expectations but remaining above the long-term target set by monetary policy makers [1][3] Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, with the core PCE index showing the same increases [3] - Personal income grew by 0.3% month-on-month in November, slightly below market forecasts, while personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.5% in both October and November, indicating sustained consumer momentum [3] - The personal savings rate saw a slight decline in November compared to the previous month [3] Economic Growth and Labor Market - The final value of the US GDP for the third quarter was revised upward, indicating the fastest economic growth in two years [5] - Initial jobless claims remain near historical lows, suggesting a relatively tight labor market despite some signs of cooling [5] Consumer Behavior and Economic Disparities - High-income households and large corporations are primarily driving current economic growth, with asset price strength buffering inflation impacts on these groups [5] - In contrast, middle and low-income households face more pressure due to limited flexibility in consumption choices [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that resilient consumer spending may provide monetary policy makers with more time to assess the effects of previous policy adjustments [8] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts last year [8] - Futures market pricing indicates limited room for further rate cuts within the year, necessitating careful consideration by decision-makers amid ongoing inflationary pressures and external uncertainties [8]

Group 1 - Economists now expect the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts until June, a shift from previous expectations of a March cut due to persistent inflation pressures and stabilization in the labor market [1] - The anticipated inflation indicator favored by decision-makers is expected to remain above the 2% target at least until mid-next year [1] - Following three consecutive rate cuts by the end of 2025, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy costs, is projected to average 2.7% this year, easing to 2.2% by mid-2027 [2] - There are divisions among officials regarding the pace and magnitude of rate cuts, with some expressing concerns about inflation [2] - Trust in the Federal Reserve is crucial for market operations, as highlighted by the potential threats to its independence during the Trump administration [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite current market volatility, investors are advised to resist the temptation to exit the stock market, as the macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, providing a solid basis for continued investment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is likened to a "bull riding" scenario, characterized by rapid policy shifts and unpredictable changes, yet it contains structural support due to resilient macroeconomic fundamentals [1]. - The probability of a deep bear market is considered low, given the backdrop of declining interest rates, steady corporate earnings growth, and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [1]. Group 2: Market Participation - A broad market expansion is evident, with various sectors such as biotechnology, banking, natural resources, small-cap, and mid-cap stocks actively participating in the market rebound, indicating widespread and sustained market momentum [2]. - Predictions indicate that mid-cap earnings are expected to grow by 17% this year, while small-cap stocks are projected to achieve a significant 19% growth, marking a major turnaround compared to previous years of underperformance [2]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Significant risks remain, with the government attempting to balance maintaining economic momentum and continuing the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, which is described as a narrow policy path that could easily become unbalanced [2]. - Potential political interference, such as a Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies, could present a buying opportunity, but the primary concern lies in controlling inflation while sustaining economic momentum and the current easing cycle [2].