Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market trend remains positive in the medium term, despite recent minor adjustments due to external events such as the Central Political Bureau meeting and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][3][4] - The report recommends three main investment lines: strong growth in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military; sectors with economic support or performance exceeding expectations like rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural products; and structural policies in service consumption and real estate that may lead to valuation recovery opportunities [2][4][40] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the "anti-involution" theme and real estate sectors were due to the Central Political Bureau meeting's outcomes being below market expectations, suggesting a potential correction phase for these sectors [5][18][19] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with several industries reaching new highs, indicating that the current technology market may continue to develop positively as key warning indicators have not yet been fully met [6][26][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring five warning indicators to assess the sustainability of the current technology market, including valuation percentiles and market breadth [26][35][38]

Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. aims to disrupt the energy cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran, as these countries account for approximately 30% of China's crude oil imports [3] - The U.S. is using tariffs as a negotiation tool, with a proposed 500% tariff on goods from China if it continues to purchase oil from Russia and Iran, which exceeds WTO rules [3][4] - The U.S. is also attempting to shift China's energy purchases from non-Western countries to U.S.-led high-priced energy sources [3] Group 2: China's Response and Strategic Position - China has diversified its crude oil import sources, covering 15 countries, with over 60% of imports coming from the Middle East, Africa, and South America, making it less reliant on Russian and Iranian oil [4] - China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of deep processing capabilities, which could impact U.S. military technology if trade tensions escalate [4] - The Chinese government has initiated a "trade war emergency plan" with a $50 billion fund to support affected enterprises and is expanding procurement in ASEAN and Middle Eastern markets [9] Group 3: Global Market Implications - The ongoing negotiations have caused significant volatility in global financial markets, with the MSCI global index experiencing notable fluctuations and oil futures rising by 4.5% in a single day [8] - There is a trend of companies like Apple relocating production to countries like India and Vietnam, although these regions face challenges in supply chain efficiency [8] - OPEC+ countries are exploring pricing oil in renminbi, indicating a potential shift away from the "petrodollar" system [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The U.S. faces internal contradictions, as a 500% tariff could lead to gasoline prices reaching $8 per gallon, potentially increasing inflation and affecting political support for the current administration [8] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has called for a "tariff fluctuation stabilization mechanism," highlighting the need for a multilateral approach to trade disputes [12] - The emphasis on cooperation over confrontation is seen as essential for global economic stability, suggesting that both nations should seek non-zero-sum solutions [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical game window has been advanced, and the market has short - term upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors in Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and focus on the US ADP employment, Q2 GDP and the Fed meeting [3]. - Various commodities show different trends. Some are subject to supply - demand factors, some are affected by policies such as "anti - involution", and some are influenced by international trade negotiations and weather conditions [2 - 46]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. Geopolitical factors and trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and the short - term market has upward support [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macroeconomic and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but the cracking spread of fuel oil is expected to be under pressure due to weak fundamentals [22]. - **Asphalt**: The August domestic production volume is expected to decline. Demand recovery is delayed, and the inventory reduction rhythm slows down. The price follows the trend of crude oil with limited upward space [23]. - **Urea**: The futures contract runs at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is likely to run in a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port inventory is unexpectedly reduced. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Reduced risk - aversion demand suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated overnight. The market focuses on tariff agreements and the Fed meeting. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, the price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. In the off - season, demand declines, and inventory increases. It is in short - term adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a callback, with increased supply and weak demand. The short - term direction is unclear, and the medium - term idea is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand of lead is weak. The price rebounds slowly, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. One can try to go long with a light position [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme cools down, and the nickel price may return to fundamentals. Wait for short - selling opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. There is short - term support at 265,000 yuan. The long - term supply pressure suppresses the price, and high - level short positions can be held [11]. - **Silicon - based Metals** - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is expected to rise in the short term due to improved manganese ore inventory expectations and "anti - involution" influence [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price follows the trend of silicon manganese. There is some upward drive in the short term [20]. Building Materials and Related Products - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The night - session steel prices strengthened. Rebar demand improved, and hot - rolled coil demand declined. The market is supported by cost and policy expectations [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose overnight. Supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal rose. The coking industry's fourth - round price increase is in progress, and inventory is decreasing. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on coking coal [17][18]. - **Glass**: The glass price rose at night. Industry profit slightly recovered, but long - term demand is weak. Wait for policy signals [31]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose at night. Inventory declined, and production increased slightly. There is still supply - demand pressure after the emotional boost fades [33]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is high, and the price is under pressure. Sino - US trade negotiations and weather are the focus [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be bought on dips. Pay attention to weather and policies [35]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price rose, and the rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Adopt a short - term neutral strategy [36]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [38]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Eggs**: The egg price fluctuates slightly. The far - month contracts are stronger. Be cautious of the reverse fluctuation of spot and near - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton good - quality rate declined, and the Brazilian harvest progress is slow. The Zhengzhou cotton is in high - level oscillation. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar production has uncertainties. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The new - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price has increased. The market focuses on the new - season yield estimate [43]. - **Timber**: The timber price is expected to rise. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Adopt a long - biased strategy [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp price is likely to return to low - level oscillation. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak [45]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is approaching. The Sino - US tariff exemption extension may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Equity Index**: A - shares rose, and the futures index also closed higher. The market focuses on the Fed meeting and domestic policies. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market may face increased volatility, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

【沥青】 | 《八》 国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月29日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 立☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 下半年以来全球原油库存去化1.9%、成品油库存增加1.4%、总体石油库存自一、二季度分别增加1.9%、2.8%后下降 0.7%，关注OPEC+产量陆续回归后平衡表宽松预期能否持续兑现。周日欧美达成15%对等关税协议,较美国此前威胁 的30%减半，本周在瑞典举行的中美经贸谈判亦存在8月12日豁免到期后进一步延续90天的预期,宏观面走向存在利 好预期。我们此前预估的8月末、9月初地续博弈窗口亦随着特朗普缩 ...

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB central parity rate has shown a gradual appreciation since July, with the rate breaking 7.14, indicating a strong upward signal[2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate has fluctuated around 7.17, reflecting a "strong central rate, weak spot rate" dynamic[7] - The central parity rate has increased by 0.23% since July 1, 2025, reaching a low of 7.1385, the lowest since November 2024[7] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of 2025, the net inflow of foreign exchange was $30.89 billion, with a trade surplus of $43.57 billion from January to June[24] - The average active settlement rate for export enterprises was 47.13% in the first half of 2025, down from 48.37% in the same period of 2024[26] - The forward settlement scale increased by $44.33 billion from April to June 2025, indicating expectations of RMB appreciation[28] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds reached a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling[34] - The net inflow from securities investment projects was $18.06 billion in the first half of 2025, with a surplus of $7.736 billion in June alone[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and the impact of non-U.S. currency movements on the RMB[40] - The average holding cost of the "waiting for settlement" funds is approximately 7.05, with a total scale of about $400 billion as of June 2025[32]

市场延续上涨趋势，主要宽基指数全部收涨，周内科创 50（4.6%）、创业板指（2.9%）、中证 500（3.2%）、中证 1000（2.36%）上涨较多，上证 50、沪深 300 涨幅在 1%左右。 股市连续第 5 周上涨，上证综指站上 3600 点后震荡加剧， 持续消化止盈压力，中美经贸谈判进展、美联储议息会议是 短期关注焦点。美日、美欧经贸谈判落地，结果相对好于预 期，市场对中美谈判持乐观态度。市场预计美联储继续维持 利率不变，但态度会相对偏鸽。国内方面，持续的反内卷引 导，带动相关行业股价、大宗商品价格剧烈反弹，但上涨速 度偏快，短期有一定调整的可能。整体来看市场继续保持乐 观，持续上涨的行情吸引资金不断入场，指数整体走势偏强， 日内振幅也在合理范围之内，多头持仓感受较好。中美经贸 谈判和议息会议结果会对市场产生扰动，反内卷的具体效果 还有待观察。拉长时间来看，当前宽基指数估值依然较低， 经济刺激政策也逐渐发挥效果，美联储降息逐渐临近，RMB 汇率保持强势，内外部环境继续改善，继续保持谨慎乐观的 观点。 ⚫ 期权市场 从期权市场来看，由于市场连续上涨，金融期权隐波 （IV）继续上升，目前金融期权 IV ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The current crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase, with the center of fluctuation moving down. The support comes from the demand side, but the incremental demand space is limited due to the seasonal decline. The market's operating logic remains unchanged, still in the adjustment stage after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. The market is supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and multiple countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [4]. - The crude oil market lacks clear guidance from news recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations from July 27th to 30th, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the Fed's interest - rate meeting at 3:00 am on July 31st. Also, the US tariff deadline is on August 1st, and the OPEC + 8 - country meeting will be held on August 3rd. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC +'s production increase in September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - The Trump administration approved Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. The details of the agreement are unclear, and the move has received different reactions. Chevron will comply with relevant laws and regulations [4]. - South Korea and Japan plan to strengthen cooperation on oil supply security due to the Israel - Iran conflict, discussing issues such as oil reserve policies [4]. - Syria issued a tender for 500,000 barrels of heavy crude oil on July 24th. The US has gradually lifted sanctions on Syria, but it's unclear about the source of this oil sale, whether it marks Syria's return to the international oil market, and potential buyers [6]. - There are many differences between the US and Japan on the details of the tariff agreement. The 15% "reciprocal" tariff may take effect on August 1st, and the 550 - billion - dollar investment commitment from Japan to the US has many uncertainties [6]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending July 18th in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected - 1.565 million barrels, previous value - 3.859 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels (previous value - 300,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous value + 213,000 barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels (expected - 908,000 barrels, previous value + 3.399 million barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels (expected - 1.135 million barrels, previous value + 4.173 million barrels) [7]. - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 95.5% (expected 93.4%, previous value 93.9%) [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, maintaining a narrow sideways oscillation with a downward - shifting center of fluctuation and low market activity. The support below the market comes from the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side is weakening in both time and space dimensions [3]. - The operating logic of the crude oil market has not changed, and the market is in the adjustment phase after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. It is still supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and other countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [3]. - There is a lack of clear guidance in the news of the crude oil market recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations, the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, etc. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC+ increases production in September [3]. - Currently, the crude oil market is in a narrow - range adjustment phase. The demand - side support is limited as the seasonal effect fades. Next week's macro - dynamics may bring new guidance to the crude oil market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - Iran and three European countries (the UK, France, and Germany) started a new round of nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25. This is their first meeting since the cease - fire in June, and the deputy - foreign - minister - level talks will be held behind closed doors [4]. - In June, China's naphtha imports reached a new high at 1.6081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.61% and a year - on - year increase of 51.12%. The high - level imports in the second quarter were driven by supply and cost factors. The production in the second quarter was 47.0415 million tons, a 2.35% decrease from the first quarter, and the price of imported naphtha was more competitive due to the previous decline in crude oil prices. The average import price in June was $577.54 per ton, the lowest of the year [5]. - Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea ports has been suspended due to new port - entry safety regulations. The situation is expected to be resolved in one or two days [5]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 18 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M+2 | 69.42 | 69.18 | 69.28 | 0.24 | 0.14 | | WTI Crude M+2 | 65.31 | 65.13 | 66.05 | 0.18 | - 0.74 | | SC Crude M+2 | 501.2 | 498.7 | 504.1 | 2.5 | - 2.9 | | Dubai Crude M+2 | 68.41 | 67.85 | 67.85 | 0.56 | 0.56 | | Oman Crude M+2 | 71.48 | 70.7 | 71.03 | 0.78 | 0.45 | | Murban Crude M+2 | 72.33 | 71.36 | 70.71 | 0.97 | 1.62 | | EFS Spread M+2 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.67 | 0.11 | - 0.9 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M+2 - M+3) | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.93 | 0.14 | - 0.11 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M+2 - M - 3) | 1.56 | 0.68 | 1.89 | 0.88 | - 0.33 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.1 | - 0.04 | | SC Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 5.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | - 0.2 | - 7.3 | | SC - Dubai (M+2) | 1.0207 | 1.6568 | 3.7559 | - 0.6361 | - 2.7352 | | SC - Oman (M+2) | - 1.9993 | - 1.0532 | 0.5459 | - 0.9461 | - 2.5452 | [7]