证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 外部不确定性加剧，"两会"政策指引助力中国资产价值重估 外部不确定性加剧：美国主要股指自今年 2 月中旬以来持续调整。2 月 14 日 -3 月 11 日，纳斯达克指数、标普 500 指数、道琼斯指数分别调整-12.94%%、 -8.87%、-6.99%。近期海外不确定性因素有所加剧，包括特朗普关税政策的 巨大不确定性，美国政府债台高筑且物价下降缓慢，政府效率部工作进展可 能引发人事震动等。美股开启大幅调整的重要催化，主要在于近期美国公布 的多项经济数据指标都暗示了滞涨甚至衰退的潜在可能。 如何看待美股科技股回调：本轮美国科技股的 risk off 可能已经"蓄谋已久"。 如果观察 2023 年开启的 AI 行情的最大受益者英伟达，其股价在 2024 年 6 月 20 日突破 140 美元关口后，已经经历了一个较长周期的震荡行情，虽然 在今年年初一度创下历史新高，但动量较过去两年已经显著走弱。从中长期 来看，AI 叙事以及财政赤字大幅增长这两个美股过去两年大涨的主要驱动力 也正在松动。美股科技股的阵痛期可能仍未结束。 海外资 ...

基于两会中提出促进科技创新、提振消费，以及支持民营经济发展等政策重心，汇丰环球私人银行及财富 管理中国首席投资总监匡正日前与媒体分享有关中国投资市场的观点。 匡正指出，市场密切关注的政策规模与发力重点在两会期间进一步明晰。两会强调促进科技创新、提振消费， 以及支持民营经济发展等，聚焦增强内需，发掘新的增长引擎。 "我们认为，两会政策重心有望延续科技引领下的中国资产重估的动能，支持我们近期从资产配置角度调升中 国相关资产的观点。"匡正表示。 三大政策重心 在最新的报告中，匡正总结了三大政策重心，即科技创新、提振消费和支持民营经济。 "政策支持范围还有望从消费品扩大至健康、养老、托幼、家政等多种服务。此外，政策强调改善民生，表示 将多渠道促进居民收入增长，推动中低收入群体增收减负，并且适当提高退休人员基本养老金、发放育儿补贴 等措施，通过社会福利改革提升居民消费信心。"匡正表示。 另外，2月17日召开的民营经济座谈会，释放了促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展的重要信号。《民营经济 促进法》或加速推出，依法保护民营企业和企业家的合法权益。 中国资产重估有望延续 匡正也谈到，近期，DeepSeek的横空出世触发了对中国 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it follows a relative rating system based on performance against the CSI 300 index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous pullback since February, leading to weakened trading sentiment. Institutions with liquidity needs and sensitivity to net value are advised to adopt a cautious approach and selectively allocate investments [4]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted post the Two Sessions, causing potential adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on ultra-long credit bonds and provides a market outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, with the CSI 300 also down by 0.4%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.6% [3]. - The best-performing sectors included coal (+4.2%), beauty and personal care (+1.6%), steel (+1.2%), utilities (+0.9%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.8%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were machinery (-2.6%), electronics (-2.4%), computers (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.9%), and media (-1.8%) [2][3]. Important Insights - The report discusses the ultra-long credit bonds market, indicating that the peak is approaching and suggesting a selective allocation strategy [4]. - The market's delayed pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to further adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report highlights the impact of a strong equity market on the bond market, suggesting a need for cautious positioning [4].

Core Viewpoint - The ultimate goal of individual income tax reform is to create a system that stimulates market vitality while safeguarding social bottom lines [1][30]. Group 1: Tax Reform Context - The current individual income tax structure in China relies heavily on wage income, accounting for about 60% of total tax revenue, with the remainder coming from property transfers, interest, dividends, and business income [3]. - There is increasing public demand to raise the individual income tax threshold and reduce the tax burden on the middle-income group to enhance disposable income and stimulate consumption [4][3]. - Historical adjustments to the tax threshold have occurred approximately every five years, with the last increase in 2018 setting the threshold at 5,000 yuan per month [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Raising the tax threshold must balance residents' living costs with the sustainability of fiscal revenue; excessive increases could lead to significant revenue losses and pressure on local finances [16]. - In 2024, individual income tax revenue is projected at 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, with many provinces experiencing negative growth in tax revenue [16][17]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to increased deductions for education and elder care, a sluggish real estate market, and shrinking profits in certain industries [18]. Group 3: International Comparisons - International experiences from countries like the U.S., Japan, and Germany provide insights into potential reforms, emphasizing dynamic adjustments and family-oriented tax structures [21][22][24]. - The U.S. system adjusts tax thresholds annually based on inflation, while Japan allows for detailed deductions based on family circumstances, which could be adapted to China's context [22][24]. - Germany's family coefficient method allows for income splitting, which can lead to significant tax savings for families, suggesting a potential model for reform in China [24]. Group 4: Proposed Reforms - Suggestions from various representatives during the recent sessions include raising the tax threshold, implementing higher standards in high-cost areas, and introducing family joint filing systems [28]. - Proposed new deductions include those for childcare and elder care, reflecting the growing financial pressures on families [28]. - The focus of tax adjustments should primarily benefit middle to high-income earners, with a need for dynamic evaluation frameworks to assess the impact of reforms [30].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong adaptability and effective investment strategies in the context of market fluctuations since 2025, with an average return of 5.64% for 590 index-enhanced private equity products as of February 28 [1] - The CSI 1000 index has performed the best since 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 5.25% as of February 28, while the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices have shown increases of 2.34% and a decrease of 1.14%, respectively [1] - The CSI 1000 index-enhanced private equity products have outperformed others this year, with an average return of 7.48% for 117 products, leading among various types of index-enhanced private equity products [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to shift focus back to fundamentals following the conclusion of the Two Sessions, with government work reports outlining the development direction for the year, and themes like artificial intelligence and robotics gaining traction [2] - As two core sectors continue to rise, overall market volatility is increasing, and there is a growing expectation for low-priced stocks to rebound, with the market entering the annual report and quarterly report disclosure period [2] - The overall market performance is anticipated to become more balanced, with cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals beginning to strengthen, and dividend stocks expected to regain upward momentum [2] Group 3 - The domestic economy is undergoing a transformation period of new and old kinetic energy conversion, with structural valuation reshaping opportunities in the A-share market due to accelerated development of new productive forces and supportive policies [3] - With the implementation of existing policies and the introduction of a package of new policies, the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually improve, leading to increased investor confidence and a more stable market [3] - Key investment themes include technology innovation based on self-control logic, expansion of domestic demand, and high-margin dividend sectors, particularly focusing on central state-owned enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the index maintains a slow bull market with increasing rotation opportunities, as the market gradually enters an earnings verification period [4][9] - The focus of the market is expected to shift back to fundamentals after the Two Sessions, with various thematic hotspots, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics, gaining traction [4][10] - The overall market turnover remains active, but volatility is increasing as core sectors rise, leading to heightened expectations for low-priced stocks to rebound [4][10] Group 2 - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in consumer and cyclical sectors, suggesting that the focus on consumption during the Two Sessions has intensified [5][10] - It notes that consumer stocks have significant upside potential with limited downside risk, and recent trends in the liquor sector indicate a positive shift [5][10] - The cyclical sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, are showing signs of recovery, with price rebounds indicating market interest [5][10] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest maintaining a focus on large technology sectors while gradually increasing allocations to consumer and cyclical stocks [6][11] - The report advises balancing investments with a focus on fundamentals during the upcoming earnings announcements, while avoiding underperforming companies [6][11] - It highlights that the robotics sector is more likely to gain market recognition due to healthier valuations and performance, while the artificial intelligence sector faces higher uncertainty [6][11] Group 4 - The report provides data indicating that the overall market experienced slight adjustments, with the exception of the CSI 1000 index, which showed a small increase [12][13] - It identifies that the best-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals and military industry, along with strong performances in computer, machinery, and media sectors [15][16] - The report notes that market turnover rates remain high, indicating good trading activity [18][20] Group 5 - The valuation levels across sectors are generally reasonable, with notable increases in the technology sector [24][26] - The report includes a detailed valuation distribution across various sectors, highlighting significant differences in price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [25][26]

今日早参 2025 年 3 月 12 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 王伟光 策略研究员 邮箱：wangweiguang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资再度净流入 上周两会及产业事件催化 A 股上行，投资者关注其后续演绎方向，我们从资 金层面提供几点观察：1）除杠杆资金外，配置型外资、公募资金是近期资 金面的增量主力，其偏好的基本面因子定价权或有提升；2）配置型外资再 度回暖，A 股&港股作为全球市场的估值洼地，仍具备一定吸引力，关注全 球资金的再配置需求；3）制造及涨价品种近期资金关注度有所提升。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-03-11 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 固定收益：美股"先破"，谁将"后立"？ 3 月 10 日美国三大股指全线大幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the coal industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of coal imports in the first two months of the year has significantly slowed, with potential uncertainties regarding imports from Indonesia and Russia [1]. - Domestic coal production in Inner Mongolia is expected to stabilize at over 1.2 billion tons in 2025, with production levels for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 being 1.21, 1.22, and 1.297 billion tons respectively [1]. - The average daily coal consumption of power plants across 25 provinces increased by 2.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching 5.56 million tons [2]. - The report suggests that while coal prices have rebounded slightly, the potential for significant price increases remains limited unless unexpected factors arise [2]. Summary by Sections Coal Import Trends - In January and February 2025, China imported 76.12 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but the growth rate has narrowed significantly compared to the second half of the previous year [1]. - Indonesia's coal reference price for March was set at $50.7 per ton, reflecting a slight increase, but market activity has slowed due to new pricing regulations [1]. Price Movements - As of March 7, 2025, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port rose to 686 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week decline of 1.2% and a year-on-year decline of 25% [2]. - The report indicates that the recent price rebound is primarily due to a slight contraction in supply during the Two Sessions and increased purchasing willingness [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, suggesting that investors should focus on firms like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and low valuations [9]. - It also recommends monitoring companies like Huabei Mining, which has a stable fundamental outlook and has seen significant shareholder buybacks [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **AI investment strategies** and **ETF market** in the context of the **capital market** as discussed by **Huatai Securities** during their **2025 Spring Strategy Meeting**. Core Points and Arguments - **AI Strategies in Investment**: AI strategies significantly enhance traditional multi-factor models by processing vast amounts of data and complex factors, particularly in volume and price data analysis, optimizing investment decisions [1][4][9]. - **Acceptance of AI in Asset Management**: The asset management industry is increasingly accepting AI strategies, particularly those based on statistical models, due to their strong performance. However, the ability of reasoning-based large language models to reach expert-level performance remains to be validated [1][13][14]. - **ETF Market Growth**: The ETF market has surpassed **3.8 trillion yuan**, with a focus on smart beta strategies to achieve stable returns through industry rotation and asset allocation models [1][22]. - **Investment Strategy Focus**: Huatai Securities emphasizes a robust return strategy, primarily focusing on bond investments, and utilizes global asset allocation models and qualitative analysis for market judgment [1][27]. - **Industry Rotation Strategy**: The industry rotation strategy combines macro, meso, and micro factors with AI identification and qualitative analysis, favoring technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors while adjusting investment targets based on significant events like the Two Sessions [3][31]. - **AI's Role in Financial Engineering**: AI enhances traditional multi-factor frameworks by integrating diverse data types, leading to more precise and efficient data analysis, thus optimizing portfolio design and improving returns while reducing risks [7][18]. - **Performance of AI in Quantitative Investment**: AI strategies outperform traditional multi-factor methods by effectively aggregating information and conducting global analyses, leading to superior excess returns [9][12]. - **Future of Large Models in Finance**: Large models like DeepSeek and ChatGPT show potential in subjective analysis, suggesting a new paradigm of combining subjective and quantitative investment approaches, although their expert-level capabilities need further validation [11][15]. - **ETF Product Development**: Huatai Securities is committed to providing ETF products and solutions, focusing on smart beta strategies and offering professional services, including market reports and strategy analyses [1][23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Historical Context of AI in Quantitative Investment**: The application of AI in quantitative investment began around 2003, evolving through various phases, with significant adoption starting in 2017, leading to substantial investment returns [2][13]. - **Impact of Two Sessions on Market**: The analysis of the Two Sessions' impact on the market involves reviewing historical key topics and market performance, indicating that different time periods around the event affect market dynamics [32]. - **Investment Heat and Valuation Levels**: The current investment heat in AI-related sectors is at historical highs, with significant trading activity and valuation levels, necessitating cautious investment strategies [62][64]. - **Differentiation of Index Products**: Index products vary significantly in valuation levels and stock resonance, suggesting that investors should choose based on their risk appetite and investment strategy [68][70]. - **Performance of Active Equity Fund Managers**: Different fund managers exhibit varying performance in the AI sector, categorized into stable allocation, focused sector, and flexible adjustment types, highlighting the importance of selecting managers based on their stability and risk-return profile [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussions surrounding AI investment strategies and the ETF market.

Policy Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2023-2025, indicating a stable economic outlook[2] - The inflation target has been lowered to 2.0%, suggesting a focus on optimizing indicators rather than aggressively boosting growth[2] - Fiscal policies have seen marginal increases in deficit rates and special bonds, but these adjustments remain within previously disclosed limits[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted towards moderate easing; however, liquidity remains tight in the short term, indicating a cautious approach[2] - The government is expected to maintain a precise and effective policy stance rather than aggressively driving GDP growth[2][3] External Factors - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, surpassing initial optimistic expectations for improved relations[4] - Gradual tariffs may peak in the second quarter, as both sides recognize the need for time to address underlying issues[1] Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is under pressure, and any upward price movements in domestic commodities may rely heavily on supply-side constraints[5] - Inflation is unlikely to show significant improvement in the first half of the year, with a focus on the second half for potential policy adjustments[6][7]