1.当前市场走到哪一阶段了？ 郭希淳：从去年9月末到现在，这轮股市行情已经持续接近1年的时间了，很多股票的累计涨幅也不小 了。关于行情走到什么阶段的问题，我们可以先对行情性质进行一个基本判断，水牛和政策牛的说法其 实已经反映了一部分的行情特征。 虽然PPI尚未摆脱下行趋势，好像和2022-2023年没什么区别，但是PPI下行的持续时间本身就是一个很 强驱动回归的力量，也是一个重要的基本面。这说明经济结构重组已经持续了较长时间，整个经济的再 平衡过程正在逐渐完成。同时，反内卷概念的提出，以及相关配套政策力度的增强，都表明政策也开始 越来越关注供给侧因素，叠加部分行业的亏损已经到了不可持续的水平，因此无论是从政策方面看，还 是从产业内生的调整需求看，PPI 的下行都已经接近尾声。 只是说，现在可能还没有到PPI拐头向上的阶段，上市公司的业绩也没有出现快速回升，但我们预期明 年的这个时候可以看到PPI的企稳回升，也可以看到名义GDP的逐渐加速，这也将带动整体上市公司盈 利增速的加快。 总的来说，我们认为行情并未结束，如果往后面1年或者1年半去看的话，国内经济基本面将出现一个明 显的拐点，那么到那个时候，在基本面的推 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 转债框架研究 证券研究报告 转债投资机构行为分析手册 我们对不同类投资机构的转债投资策略及偏好进行详细拆解，形成转债投 资机构行为分析手册以供参考，本篇我们聚焦概览与公募基金篇。 转债投资机构与分析方法概览 以 2024 年末数据为例，"私募资管"明显持有更多的电力设备转债，但对 银行、农牧、钢铁、交运、家电等顺周期行业转债持仓更低；"保险"的转 债持仓较为分散，对钢铁、有色、化工、建材等行业的敞口相对较高。"私 募资管"、"QFII"对低评级转债的容忍度更高；"保险"、"证券自营"持仓 中 AAA 评级转债占比较高；"企业年金"、"社保基金"直接持有高评级转 债的规模也并不高（占比约 15%）。"私募资管"持仓转债中 100 元以下占 比超 15%；"保险"、"社保基金"、"QFII"持仓转债则以 110-120 元为主。 风险提示：1）宏观经济增长不及预期；2）正股权益市场波动超预期；3） 转债投资人披露规则及数据统计不完全可能导致偏误。 首先，沪深交易所会逐月披露不同类型投资者投资各类债券情况，而转债 作为交易所固定收益证券中的一种亦会被披露，我们以此来看：公募基金 持有转债 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid growth of the dividend index fund market, which has become an essential part of asset allocation for investors, despite the complexity and variety of available products [1][2] Group 2 - The dividend index fund market has seen significant development, with the number of products increasing from just 3 between 2006 and 2016 to a record 39 new funds in 2024, and total assets reaching 153.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 2211.68% increase since the end of 2007 [3][4] Group 3 - The strong performance of dividend index funds is attributed to their underlying assets, which typically come from companies with good profitability, stable cash flow, and consistent dividends, such as leaders in banking, transportation, and energy sectors. The annualized return of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index from early 2007 to the end of 2024 was 10.32%, significantly outperforming the 5.52% of the CSI 300 Total Return Index [7][8] Group 4 - Dividend index funds are favored for their ability to provide continuous cash flow, acting as "cash cows" for investors. With the decline in yields from government bonds and the scarcity of high-yield, low-risk assets, these funds are increasingly valuable for long-term capital preservation and predictable returns [8][9] Group 5 - Different types of dividend index funds cater to various investor needs. Traditional broad-based funds track indices like the CSI Dividend Index, while Smart Beta funds enhance traditional criteria with factors like low volatility and quality. There are also funds focusing on state-owned enterprises and those that explore dividend opportunities in the Hong Kong market [10][12] Group 6 - When selecting dividend index funds, investors should consider not only the index construction and historical performance but also the fee structure, as seemingly minor fee differences can significantly impact long-term returns. Despite a trend of lowering fees in the broader fund industry, many dividend index funds still maintain relatively high fees [14][15] Group 7 - Overall, investors should choose dividend index funds based on their specific preferences, considering factors such as fund size, liquidity, and tracking error to ensure effective investment outcomes [16]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. A-share valuation has surpassed the 60th percentile, historically indicating a high probability of continued upward movement, driven by fundamental improvements, policy support, and liquidity easing [1][3][4] 2. July economic data was slightly below expectations, but exports showed an unexpected rebound, indicating a recovery trend in the economy and profits, with industrial profits likely entering a recovery cycle [1][6][14] 3. The A-share earnings cycle bottomed in August 2023, with mid-year performance growth improving compared to the first quarter, suggesting a better fundamental situation than indicated by economic data [1][14] 4. Key drivers for the A-share market's upward trend include improvements in fundamentals, positive policy impacts, and external events, alongside liquidity easing [4][19] 5. Historical data shows that when the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeds the 60th percentile, it typically continues to rise, with only one significant downturn linked to external shocks [3][8] 6. The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to significant inflows of funds, with trading volumes exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan and new fund issuance rebounding to approximately 50 billion yuan [18][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The impact of the delay in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to maintain some resilience, although growth rates may slow down in the coming months [9] 2. Domestic demand factors, including consumption, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure investment, are projected to maintain high growth levels despite a slight decline in July [10] 3. Real estate investment remains weak, which could suppress overall economic performance, but the economy is still on a recovery path [11] 4. Industrial profits are closely linked to the Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential for profit recovery if PPI growth improves [12][13] 5. The current liquidity environment is favorable, with expectations of continued fund inflows into the A-share market, supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [16][17] 6. Recommended sectors for investment include technology (robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI applications), and sectors showing potential for fundamental improvement or catch-up, such as batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][22]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a "systematic slow bull" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2024 high of 3674, indicating a potential target of 3731, the peak of the 2021 structural bull market [1][4][57] - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology" sectors, suggesting to increase short and medium-term positions near key support levels [1][5][58] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices recorded positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.70%, and the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of 8.58% [12][55] - The financial and technology sectors are driving market performance, with comprehensive financial and non-bank financial sectors rising by 7.07% and 6.57% respectively [15][55] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with a 3.79% increase, while the red-chip style weakened, with banks dropping by 3.22% [56] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.08 trillion yuan, up from 1.68 trillion yuan the previous week [23] - The margin trading balance rose to 2.05 trillion yuan, with a financing buy-in ratio of 10.6% [30] - The medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 1.42 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 2.38 billion yuan [30] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market include the suspension of the 24% tariff by the US and China for 90 days, and the introduction of "dual interest subsidy" policies to support consumer markets [3][51][55] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mild recovery, indicating signs of demand-side improvement [55] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to target 3731, while emphasizing the importance of key support levels at the 20-day and 60-day moving averages [4][57] - The "systematic slow bull" nature of the current market suggests that sectors that are relatively undervalued will eventually be validated [57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology," while also increasing attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate [5][58] - Investors are advised to avoid short-term trading strategies that could lead to missed opportunities and instead focus on building positions near key support levels [5][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a series of research methodology seminars held by Guotai Junan Securities across three major cities in China, focusing on various industries and their cyclical trends [3][6]. Group 1: Seminar Topics - The seminars cover a wide range of topics including the cyclical manufacturing research methods in the building materials sector, urban cycle research in real estate, and frameworks for steel industry research [6][7]. - Specific sessions include discussions on the aviation and express delivery sectors under the context of "anti-involution," as well as the outlook for refrigerant market cycles in the chemical industry [7]. - Other topics include the analysis framework for the petrochemical industry, coal market assessments, and the comprehensive view of electricity market reforms [7]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The seminars aim to provide insights into the financial cycles of real estate and the consumption trends in building materials [7]. - The discussions also highlight the trends in small metals research and the implications of fiscal funding on infrastructure development [7]. - The sessions conclude with a review of the shipping super bull market and its lessons for future investments [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the investment demand for convertible bonds from insurance and annuity remains. With the shrinking of traditional high - quality underlying bonds like banks, convertible bond funds may flow to low - price, high - grade medium - large - cap convertible bonds in sectors such as utilities, transportation, environmental protection, and construction. The valuation decline of medium - low - price and balanced convertible bonds is controllable, and the valuation of high - grade convertible bonds may rise. In the long - term, if the new issuance space of convertible bonds remains unopened, it may significantly affect the market positioning of convertible bond assets, especially if new medium - high - grade convertible bonds are continuously absent, which may impact the basic demand for convertible bond allocation of low - risk - preference investors such as annuities and disrupt the logic of "tight supply - demand supporting high convertible bond valuations" [22] - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. Supply - Demand Structure and Convertible Bond Valuation - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the new issuance of convertible bonds has significantly declined, while the amount of conversion and maturity has increased. The scale of outstanding convertible bonds has entered a downward channel, with AAA - rated convertible bonds being the main force of contraction. The scale of convertible bonds in industries such as banks, public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has decreased significantly. As of August 8, 2025, the convertible bond scale has decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan this year [10] - Starting from 2025, the convertible bond market will enter a maturity peak. In 2025, 134 convertible bonds will mature, with an initial issuance scale of 279.3 billion yuan. As of July 31, 2025, 20 of these 134 convertible bonds remain, with a total remaining scale of 48.178 billion yuan. From 2026 to 2028, the theoretical maturity scale of convertible bonds will exceed 200 billion yuan each year. In terms of ratings, from 2025 to 2027, the maturity scale of AAA - rated convertible bonds will be 39.1 billion yuan, 31.3 billion yuan, and 81.8 billion yuan respectively, remaining the main force of future contraction. The maturity scale of AA - and above - rated convertible bonds will be 47.4 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 153.3 billion yuan respectively during the same period [16] - On the demand side, compared with the end of 2021, the investor structure of convertible bonds has changed. The influence of public funds and insurance institutions has increased, while the proportion of enterprise annuities has decreased. Public funds are the main direct investors in convertible bonds, with relatively few restrictions on convertible bond ratings. Pension and insurance institutions usually have clear convertible bond rating restrictions and focus on the safety margin and return certainty of convertible bond prices [21] 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed an oscillating upward trend, with most of the three major indices rising, but there was differentiation and a slight correction in the second half of the week. The defense, machinery, and non - ferrous metal sectors performed well, while sectors such as commerce and retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, and social services declined [41] - For the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand - driven sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "China -字头", the "Belt and Road" theme, high - dividend sectors, and the military industry [42][43] 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Rises, with Military, Metal, and Machinery Leading - This week, the main equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among the small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.51% and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.65% [46] - Among the 27 Shenwan industries, 27 rose and 4 fell. The defense, non - ferrous metal, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 5.93%, 5.78%, and 5.37% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, computer, and commerce and retail industries were among the top decliners [49] 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Soars, and the Median of the 100 - Yuan Premium Rate Increases - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 2.25%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.42%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.23% [51] - The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased this week. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 84.475 billion yuan, an increase of 7.259 billion yuan compared with last week. The total trading volume this week was 422.376 billion yuan [51] - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 29 industries rose and 0 fell. The machinery, defense, and beauty care industries led the market with increases of 4.51%, 4.40%, and 4.04% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 26 industries rose and 3 fell. The household appliance, bank, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 6.75%, 4.97%, and 4.70% respectively, while the building material, computer, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the decline [56] - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (428 out of 459). Excluding the closing data of newly - listed convertible bonds this week, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase were Jiaojian Convertible Bond (23.15%), Julong Convertible Bond (21.65%), Gaoce Convertible Bond (16.82%), Dongjie Convertible Bond (16.32%), and Borui Convertible Bond (14.97%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly decline were Qizheng Convertible Bond (- 22.67%), Haopeng Convertible Bond (- 11.77%), Saili Convertible Bond (- 10.79%), Yingji Convertible Bond (- 7.58%), and Tianlu Convertible Bond (- 6.95%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly trading volume were Dongjie Convertible Bond (19.443 billion yuan), Jinxian Convertible Bond (17.852 billion yuan), Tianlu Convertible Bond (16.819 billion yuan), Julong Convertible Bond (15.168 billion yuan), and Qizheng Convertible Bond (14.694 billion yuan) [58] - The number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose significantly. As of Friday, the median price of the entire market's convertible bonds closed at 130.41 yuan, an increase of 2.78 yuan compared with last weekend. The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median implied volatility of the entire market increased, and the pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds increased [62][66] 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds slightly declined, with the decline in equity - biased convertible bonds being higher. The valuation of convertible bonds with a conversion value of 110 - 120 yuan declined, while the valuations of other convertible bonds increased, especially those with a conversion value of 0 - 80 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating increased, except for AAA and A and below. The valuations of small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds decreased, while those of medium - small - cap and medium - cap convertible bonds increased [75] - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is below the 50th percentile since 2017 [75] 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. AAA convertible bonds rose 1.88%, AA + convertible bonds rose 2.11%, AA convertible bonds rose 2.16%, AA - convertible bonds rose 2.69%, A + convertible bonds rose 3.17%, and A and below convertible bonds rose 2.37%. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 20.01% return; AA + convertible bonds, 9.93%; AA convertible bonds, 14.85%; AA - convertible bonds, 22.79%; A + convertible bonds, 26.17%; and A and below convertible bonds, 30.78%. Historically, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline properties and greater rebound strength [89] - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Small - cap convertible bonds rose 3.48%, medium - small - cap convertible bonds rose 2.26%, medium - cap convertible bonds rose 2.65%, and large - cap convertible bonds rose 1.72%. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 27.20% return; medium - small - cap convertible bonds, 23.63%; medium - cap convertible bonds, 19.43%; and large - cap convertible bonds, 16.63% [89] 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly - listed convertible bonds, and there was 1 convertible bond issued but not yet listed - Weidao Convertible Bond with a scale of 1.17 billion yuan. The number of primary - market approvals this week was 7. Among them, 2 convertible bonds, Huafa Co., Ltd. (private placement convertible bonds, scale 4.8 billion yuan) and Jindawei (1.292 billion yuan), obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; 2 convertible bonds, Tianzhun Technology (0.872 billion yuan) and Chunfeng Power (2.5 billion yuan), were accepted by the stock exchange [94] - From the beginning of 2023 to August 8, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 89, with a total scale of 137.717 billion yuan. Among them, 15 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal, with a total scale of 16.218 billion yuan; 36 convertible bonds passed the shareholders' meeting, with a total scale of 65.707 billion yuan; 28 convertible bonds were accepted by the stock exchange, with a total scale of 38.842 billion yuan; 4 convertible bonds passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 8.979 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with a total scale of 7.971 billion yuan [95] 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of August 9, 2025, 10 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision this week; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Heda Convertible Bond, Shengtai Convertible Bond, and Yirui Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; Ou 22 Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 announced the result of the downward revision, which was revised to the lowest price [98] - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 3 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; and 6 convertible bonds, including Longhua Convertible Bond, Xince Convertible Bond, Haopeng Convertible Bond, Dongcai Convertible Bond, Youzu Convertible Bond, and Baidian Convertible Bond, announced early redemption [101] - As of the end of this week, there were 6 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 15 convertible bonds still in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [103]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the Chinese economy is undergoing a transformation, leading to a "transformation bull market" in the stock market, with expectations for new highs in the future [1][15][16] - Key investment themes include a focus on financials, growth sectors, and certain cyclical industries, as the market adjusts and gains confidence [1][2][3] Group 2: Key Investment Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: 1. Banking: China Merchants Bank 2. Non-bank: CICC and New China Life Insurance 3. Overseas Technology: Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou-W 4. Electronics: Cambricon Technologies, Chipone Technology, and Suzhou Tianmai 5. Computing: Dingjie Smart and Anheng Information 6. Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic and Mingzhi Electric 7. Military: AVIC Shenfei 8. Coal: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 9. Light Industry: Sun Paper 10. Agriculture: Muyuan Foods 11. Transportation: SF Express 12. Pharmaceuticals: MicroPort Medical 13. Real Estate: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle 14. Utilities: Huadian International Power [1][4][12] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to face revenue pressure but maintain positive net profit growth, with a gradual recovery in net interest margins anticipated [22][23] - China Merchants Bank is projected to benefit from economic recovery, with an upward revision of net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 [25][26][27] Group 4: Non-Banking Sector Insights - The impact of the new tax on bond interest income is expected to be limited for the non-banking sector, with continued optimism for growth in this area [30][32] - CICC is forecasted to see significant profit growth driven by active trading and investment recovery, with an increase in EPS estimates for 2025-2027 [33][34] Group 5: Technology Sector Insights - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures significantly, particularly in AI, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [43][45] - Tencent is expected to leverage AI to enhance its core business, with revenue and profit projections being adjusted upwards for 2025-2027 [45][46][47]