Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent behavior of institutional investors in the bond market, highlighting a slight increase in the duration of bond funds and a decrease in leverage ratios within the bond market [2] Group 1: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors have slightly increased the duration of bond funds, indicating a potential shift in investment strategy towards longer-term bonds [2] - The leverage ratio in the bond market has decreased, suggesting a more cautious approach by institutions in their investment practices [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The changes in duration and leverage may reflect broader market conditions and investor sentiment, potentially impacting future bond yields and market stability [2]

Fixed Income - The relationship between stocks and bonds has shown new changes since 2026, particularly due to shifts in investor structure and inflation expectations, indicating a potential for short-term co-movement under volatile conditions [2] - The expansion of fixed income + products in 2025, especially the significant increase in secondary bond funds, suggests a rising proportion of funds holding both bond and equity positions, leading to a more consistent marginal funding source for both ends [2] - In the context of strong equity markets, the pressure of "strong stocks, weak bonds" may re-emerge, particularly if the financial sector strengthens, while different themes in equity markets can have varying impacts on the bond market [3] - Geopolitical conflicts primarily influence the stock-bond relationship through rising oil prices and inflation expectations, which can weaken the stability of bonds as a safe haven [3] - Despite short-term pressures on the bond market, particularly on long-duration and highly traded varieties, the overall medium to long-term outlook remains supported by allocation forces and policy environment [4] Agriculture - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are expected to drive an upward trend in agricultural products, with rising energy prices enhancing the economic viability of biodiesel and increasing demand for vegetable oil raw materials [9] - Recent price increases in international soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil indicate a bullish outlook for grain prices, benefiting planting companies and agricultural processing firms [9] Pets - The appreciation of the RMB may impact the profitability of some companies' export businesses, but those with overseas production capacity and order growth are likely to see performance gains [10] - The domestic pet market is experiencing rapid growth, highlighted by recent large pet exhibitions in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen, indicating a robust development trend in the industry [10] Livestock - Current trends show a decline in pig prices below 10 CNY/kg, with expectations for continued price drops and rising costs due to higher prices for corn and other agricultural products, complicating the cost structure for the livestock industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Two Sessions on the bond market, highlighting key focus areas and potential expectations for investors [2] Group 1: Market Insights - The bond market is expected to react to the policy directions set during the Two Sessions, with particular attention to interest rate trends and fiscal policies [2] - Analysts anticipate a divergence in market expectations, which could create investment opportunities in specific sectors [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators such as inflation rates and GDP growth will influence bond yields and investor sentiment [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these indicators to gauge future market movements [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider adjusting their portfolios based on the insights gained from the Two Sessions, particularly in sectors that may benefit from government policies [2] - The potential for increased government spending could lead to opportunities in infrastructure and related industries [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, the price continued to recover. The CPI reflected the accelerated repair of endogenous momentum, especially the service sub - item after excluding the base effect. The PPI recovered under the input of raw materials and the mapping of computing power. The market is concerned about whether the bond market will trade the "inflation market", but the report maintains the view that the bond market is in the repair logic [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI and core CPI readings reached the highest monthly values in nearly 3 years. The CPI was 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month, and the core CPI was 1.8% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month, both the highest since February 2023 [2] - The strong rise of CPI was due to the Spring Festival month - shifting factor. Even excluding this factor, the CPI month - on - month was still 0.35 pct stronger than last year. The average month - on - month growth rate of CPI from January to February this year was 0.6%, second only to 2024 in the past 5 years and significantly higher than last year's 0.25% [2] - In terms of sub - items, from January to February, the month - on - month growth rates of service CPI and food CPI were 0.45 pct and 0.55 pct higher than last year, higher than those of non - food (+0.25 pct) and consumer goods (+0.2 pct). In February, food and tobacco, transportation and communication, and education and entertainment made large contributions to the year - on - year change of CPI, almost contributing to all the 1.1 pct change in CPI year - on - year [3] PPI Analysis - In February, the PPI continued to recover year - on - year, but the month - on - month repair speed slowed down. The PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 pct compared with last month, and 0.4% month - on - month, with the growth rate the same as last month [4] - The ex - factory prices of means of production and means of subsistence continued to recover year - on - year. In February, they were - 0.7% and - 1.6% year - on - year, up 0.6 pct and 0.1 pct respectively compared with last month; the month - on - month growth rates were 0.5% and 0 respectively, with the former remaining flat and the latter down 0.1 pct compared with last month [4] - Among sub - items, the ex - factory price of the mining industry accelerated its recovery, while that of durable consumer goods slowed down. In February, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of the mining industry's ex - factory price were - 5.3% and 1.2% respectively, up 2.8 pct and 2.9 pct respectively compared with last month; for durable consumer goods, they were - 1.6% and 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 pct year - on - year and flat month - on - month compared with last month, with the repair speed slowing down [4] - In terms of sub - industries, the ex - factory prices of upstream non - ferrous and energy - chemical industries with input - type characteristics and the computer, communication and electronics industries related to computing power had relatively large month - on - month increases, including non - ferrous mining, oil and gas processing, non - ferrous smelting and rolling, chemical product manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing [4] Market Expectation and Current Situation - The market - expected inflation path included the mapping of "anti - involution" in the new energy industry chain, the turnaround of the real estate chain driving the black industry chain, and the non - ferrous market driven by the prosperity of the technology industry. However, recently, the input - type inflation narrative of "war + oil and gas" has taken the lead [7] - Such input - type inflation has been experienced in 2021 and 2022, which brought contraction risks to the downstream. Looking back, it had little impact on the bond market trend for the whole year. The report maintains the view that the bond market is in the repair logic [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market has shown seasonal recovery, and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival in 2026 is faster than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. The construction and chemical industries in the upstream of the black industry chain have relatively better start - up performance [2][14]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel and consumption were good, but the movie - watching enthusiasm was lower than the same period last year. After the holiday, the sales of new and second - hand houses have rebounded. However, the latest land auction data is average [5][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - The interest - rate bond index weakened, and the precious metal index had a significant increase [15][17]. 3.2 Industrial Production 3.2.1 Power Generation - The daily coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded, and the thermal coal price increased [21][22]. 3.2.2 Coking - The start - up rate of coking enterprises increased rapidly, and the prices of coking coal and coke both decreased [23][24]. 3.2.3 Steel - The blast - furnace start - up rate increased, and the spot and futures prices of iron ore and rebar both decreased [26][28]. 3.2.4 Building Materials - The cement price fluctuated slightly, and the inventories of copper and aluminum increased significantly [32]. 3.2.5 Chemical Industry - The start - up rates of methanol and soda ash have recovered, and the crude oil price fluctuated upward [44][45]. 3.2.6 Automobile - The start - up rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires both decreased significantly [48][49]. 3.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide increased by 1.5 percentage points year - on - year in the lunar calendar. The fund availability and worker resumption conditions were better than last year [2][50]. 3.4 Logistics and Transportation 3.4.1 Freight - The highway logistics freight rate index, railway transportation volume, and postal parcel collection volume all fluctuated downward [52][53][55]. 3.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume rebounded, and the number of domestic flights increased significantly [58]. 3.5 Terminal Demand 3.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificates of deposit narrowed, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills increased [57][59][62]. 3.5.2 Real Estate - The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses seasonally rebounded, and the increase rate of the second - hand house listing price index widened [5][63]. 3.5.3 Construction - The apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the proportion of profitable steel mills increased marginally [75][77]. 3.5.4 Consumption - During the Spring Festival, the number of tourists and tourism spending reached record highs, but the movie box office was lower than the same period last year [12][76]. 3.5.5 Export - The CCFI freight rate decreased, and the port cargo throughput decreased significantly [88]

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bond investment strategy outlook for February 2026, emphasizing the atypical economic recovery and its implications for asset allocation in the bond market [2] Group 1: Economic Recovery Insights - The current economic recovery is characterized as non-typical, suggesting that traditional recovery patterns may not apply [2] - Factors influencing this atypical recovery include shifts in consumer behavior and changes in fiscal policies [2] Group 2: Bond Market Strategy - The article outlines specific strategies for bond investments, recommending a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the ongoing economic changes [2] - It highlights the importance of duration management in the current interest rate environment to optimize returns [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Predictions indicate potential volatility in the bond market, necessitating a proactive approach to investment selection [2] - The article suggests monitoring key economic indicators that could impact bond yields and overall market performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the expectation of a spring market rally, with potential positive news from both policy and fundamental aspects in the coming months, despite a possible short-term correction before the Spring Festival [5] - The momentum effect is observed in the market, with both momentum and profitability factors yielding positive returns of 0.51%, while Beta and liquidity factors recorded negative returns of -0.81% and -0.41% respectively [5] - A slight increase in the overall A-share market is noted, with major indices showing cautious signals as ETF funds continue to experience net outflows [5][9] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving oil prices upward, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices reported at $69.83 and $65.74 per barrel, reflecting increases of 6.7% and 7.3% respectively [7] - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, supported by steady macroeconomic data and recent policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and environmental protection, which are benefiting leading enterprises in the sector [8] - A new policy document aimed at improving the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation has been released, which is expected to promote orderly and fair competition in the energy storage industry [8]

Global Capital Market Overview - The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has created volatility in the markets, with concerns about his hawkish stance affecting monetary policy expectations [1][2][9] - Economic resilience and persistent inflation have led to a challenging monetary policy environment, with the market pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [1][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, indicating a marginal increase in yields and tightening liquidity expectations [1][9] Equity Market Performance - In the equity markets, South Korea and Argentina saw significant gains, while the A-share indices, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, also experienced increases [1][9] - Conversely, the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 saw declines, with Vietnam and Japan's markets experiencing larger drops [1][9] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices fell by 2.01% this week, while geopolitical risks led to a 7.32% increase in oil prices [1][9] - The current market for precious metals is in a phase of volatility reduction, with indicators suggesting that gold and silver prices may stabilize after recent declines [3][11] Global Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a trend of foreign capital inflows and domestic capital outflows from the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing an inflow of $8.83 billion and passive funds $17.41 billion [4][9] - In total, foreign capital inflows amounted to $26.23 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $600.12 billion [4][9] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI 200 and the S&P 500, with a PE ratio percentile of 92.9% over the past decade [5][10] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have improved, indicating better relative value in the Chinese stock market compared to global peers [6][10] Economic Data and Inflation Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data shows a marginal increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, while inflationary pressures remain stable in China [7][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting inflation significantly if they rise to $80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 [17][10]

Core Insights - The report discusses the causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, highlighting factors such as the issuance of subprime loans due to low interest rates, rapid home price increases, and the role of financial innovation in spreading debt through securitization [3] - It outlines the U.S. government's response to the crisis, emphasizing the effectiveness of fiscal policies over traditional monetary policies, and the shift in leverage from households to the government [3] - The report indicates that U.S. housing prices are expected to stabilize and recover over time, with a projected timeline of approximately 5-10 years for full recovery from the crisis [3] Summary by Sections Causes of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis - The crisis was driven by increased household leverage due to low interest rates, rapid home price appreciation beyond actual value, speculative behavior in certain cities, and the impact of rising interest rates that burst the housing bubble [3] Government Response - Traditional monetary policy measures, such as interest rate cuts, were less effective compared to substantial fiscal policies that directly stimulated demand and unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing (QE) that intervened in troubled assets [3] Housing Market Recovery - Long-term interest rates in the U.S. are on a downward trend, providing support for housing prices. The report notes that when the rental-to-price ratio exceeds the mortgage rate, housing price growth is expected to stabilize, with a recovery timeline of about 4.5 years post-crisis [3]