近年来，随着我国金融市场的深化发展与居民财富的不断积累，居民资产配置行为逐渐成为观察宏观经 济运行与微观主体决策的重要窗口。中国人民银行近日公布的金融统计数据显示，今年前三季度，人民 币存款增加22.71万亿元，其中住户存款增加12.73万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加4.81万亿元。可 以看出，近几个月以来，居民存款增速较前期高位有所回落，非银存款仍保持较快增长。 这一变化在资本市场回暖与利率下行的背景下，引发了广泛关注。不少市场机构将居民存款和非银存款 之间的变化，视同居民存款"搬家"到股市。这个理解很通俗，但并不够准确。所谓存款搬家，其实是居 民根据资产回报率的变化，把银行里的储蓄存款转换成其他资产的现象，本质上是居民资产重新配置的 一种表现。 存款搬家是居民资产选择多元化、市场化程度加深的产物。这背后是我国金融市场持续深化利率市场化 改革、畅通货币政策传导机制。理解这一点，就不必对存款一时的"搬家"或"回流"过度解读甚至焦虑 了。 作为资金的价格，利率的变动犹如指挥棒，引导着资金的流向，存款搬家正是不同金融市场之间收益率 相对变化后产生的结果。比如，当预期债券、股票收益率走高时，人们就会增加持有这类资 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a deepening global credit risk differentiation, with France's sovereign rating downgraded to A+ and increasing default pressure on US corporations, suggesting a focus on extending duration and upgrading ratings in investment strategies [1][6][29] - The global bond market is driven by three main themes: monetary policy outlook, structural changes in sovereign debt, and international financial system reforms [6][8] - The report indicates that emerging market bonds are showing significant differentiation, with major markets enhancing resilience through dollar and local currency issuance, while frontier markets face sustainability pressures [6][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the US Treasury yield curve has shifted to a bull steepening shape, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.011% and the 2-year yield declining even more significantly [8][9] - European sovereign bond yields have also seen substantial declines, with the UK 10-year yield plummeting by 25.83 basis points and Germany's 10-year yield falling by 14 basis points [9][10] - The credit market is showing a clear differentiation, with investment-grade corporate bonds performing strongly and high-yield bonds under pressure, as evidenced by the G-spread narrowing for investment-grade bonds while widening for high-yield bonds [11][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for defensive and structural opportunities in current investment strategies, recommending a moderate extension of duration and an overweight in investment-grade bonds [6][11] - The report suggests increasing allocations to emerging market dollar bonds while avoiding frontier market foreign currency debt, highlighting the resilience of major emerging markets [6][11] - The report also points out the narrowing of the offshore RMB bond yield spread, indicating improved liquidity and demand for RMB assets [15][24]

一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1208.31亿，深股通总成交金额为1260.35亿。 | | 沪股道( | 10月21日 | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票优吗 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 601138 | 工业富联 | 34.25 | | 2 | 688256 | 真正纪 | 30.66 | | 3 | 601899 | 三分彩彩 | 17.15 | | 4 | 688041 | 海光信息 | 14.35 | | 5 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 10.72 | | 6 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | 10.68 | | 7 | 600036 | 招商银行 | 10.55 | | 8 | 600030 | 中信证券 | 10.48 | | 9 | 603083 | 剑桥科技 | 9.63 | | 10 | 688008 | 澜起科技 | 9.56 | | | 深股道( | 10月21日 | ) | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 47. ...

| | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0 50 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指塞>短债基金> | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | 回顾 | 中长期债基>现金管理 | 现金管理 > 中长期债基 | | | 近一个月，中美贸易冲突阶段性升级削弱市 场风险偏好,债市情绪好转;经济基本面仍 | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅回调, | | | | 4 月初债市快速走强后回归震荡，5 月下旬小 | | 债市回顾 | 偏弱、资金面维持相对缓和,央行重启购债 | 幅回调，６月回归震荡，三季度有所回调，近 | | | 等预期抬升对债市构成支撑。短债表现强于 | 期小幅走强。 | | | 长债。 | | | 行业事件跟踪 | | 1.普益标准统计数据显示，9 月末银行理财规模较 8 月份回落 1285 亿至 30.8 万亿元。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | 一同业存单:预计利率稳中有降。 | 经济修复预期延续,资金有望维持缓和,债市 | | | -利率债:债 ...

长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 • 宽基指数 • 策略指数 • 行业指数 • 主题指数 • 海外指数 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 之前有朋友问，如何快速查看投资中常用的各个指数呢？ 螺丝钉也做了指数地图，包括各个常见指数的代码、选股规则、行业分布、成分股的市值平均数和中位数等，会定期更新，方便大家查看。 螺丝钉指数地图，主要包括以下几类股票指数： | | CSPSADRP.CI | 红利机会 | | 欧入型投资者投资中国资本市场的参考基准,满足多样性、稳定性和可交易性要求, 帮助投资者跟踪在中国大陆上市的高红利普通股 | 1,629,65 | 212.64 | 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 995082.581 | 龙头红利 | 2 | 旨在反应A股市场中,具备持续高分红能力的龙头股的整体表现, | 3,218,38 | 607.12 | 50 | | 红树 | SOURTH CSI | 通的通高息精 | | 从港股通证券中选取30只流动性好、造绿分红、股息事高、盈利持续且具有成长性的 | 2,711,40 | ...

据国家税务总局消息，自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署实施一揽子增量政策以来，叠加存量政策显 效，发票销售和税收收入增速双双稳步回升，特别是主要行业和税种均实现平稳增长，反映我国经济向 好态势不断稳固。 全国企业设备更新加快推进，消费品以旧换新政策持续释放消费活力。增值税发票数据显示，一年来， 全国企业采购机械设备类金额同比增长9.7%，其中高技术制造业采购机械设备类金额同比增长11.8%， 保持良好增长势头；冰箱等日用家电零售业、电视机等家用视听设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长 55.4%和35.3%。 中央财经大学副校长陈斌开认为，发票数据增速稳步回升，反映经济运行稳中向好、企业盈利逐步改 善、消费活力持续释放，加之今年资本市场交易活跃等因素，有力带动税收收入稳中有升。（经济日报 记者 董碧娟） 资本市场相关税收保持较高增速，反映股市交易活跃。一年来，资本市场服务业税收同比增长56.8%， 其中证券交易印花税同比增长110.5%；与资本市场相关的行业、税种收入增长较快，如保险业税收同 比增长13.3%；同时，股权转让以及上市公司分红增加。 主要行业、税种收入增长平稳，反映企业经营及利润状况不断改善。从主要行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting stable policy rates and bank margin pressures [1][2]. Monetary Policy and LPR Stability - The stability of the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% has been a significant factor in maintaining the LPR [2]. - Bank net interest margins are under pressure, with the net interest margin for commercial banks dropping to 1.42% by the end of Q2 2025, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous year [1][2]. Market Conditions and Future Expectations - There is an expectation for targeted LPR reductions by the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [6]. - The central bank has indicated a commitment to maintaining adequate liquidity and supporting consumption and investment, especially in light of external economic pressures [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in September was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points [3]. External Influences - The potential for further easing of external constraints, particularly with the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, may provide a favorable environment for China's monetary policy adjustments [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The financial system in the province is focused on implementing national financial policies to support the high-quality development of private enterprises, emphasizing service quality and efficiency [1] Group 1: Credit Resource Investment - Continuous increase in credit resources to support the growth of the private economy, with 59 financial institutions and over 2,200 teams serving 80,000 private enterprises, providing financing exceeding 400 billion yuan for 18,000 enterprises [2] - Support for weak links in the economy by extending financial services to individual businesses, resulting in 276,000 private enterprises having loans by the end of November, an increase of 19,000 since the beginning of the year [3] - Implementation of "Financial Direct to Grassroots Acceleration" actions to address issues like slow approvals and difficult renewals, facilitating financing for 1,303 projects totaling 307.687 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Capital Market Development - Utilizing domestic and international capital markets to promote the listing of private enterprises, with 5 new listed companies this year, bringing the total to 309, of which 62% are private enterprises [5] - Expanding direct financing channels through financial increment policies, with 16 private enterprises entering the investment project library of a newly established private equity fund totaling 50 billion yuan [6] - Strengthening regional equity markets by organizing financing roadshows and training, resulting in 160 new listed private enterprises this year, raising a total of 69.086 billion yuan [7] Group 3: Addressing Financing Challenges - Improving mechanisms for debt risk prevention and resolution, ensuring early identification and management of risks for private enterprises [8] - Enhancing support for private enterprises through government-backed financing guarantees, benefiting 234,900 small and micro enterprises and farmers [9] - Expanding the no-repayment renewal policy to all small and medium enterprises, with new no-repayment loans amounting to 280.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.49% [10] - Implementing digital financial initiatives to improve credit information access, providing data support to over 3.3 million private economic entities [11]

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：华西研究） 风险提示：地缘冲突等影响，宏观经济出现超预期波动。 欧洲：欧洲经济在持续降息的刺激下呈现一定企稳现象，利率下行带动居民和企业信贷增长。但欧洲的 内在结构性问题（移民等）和能源瓶颈持续掣肘经济，工业经济疲态依旧，特别是德国。通胀压力的消 除为欧元区未来继续宽松政策提供了条件。 日本：日本经济相对稳定，居民收入持续增长，消费信心有所提振，服务业景气度较高。但是，日本经 济面临新的阻力因素：美国对日关税和日元升值压制日本制造业和出口。日本通胀仍存压力，12月日本 央行可能加息一次。 资产展望： 国债利率：在美联储降息引导下，美债利率将继续下行，预计美债利率将向3.5%靠拢。通胀压力缓解 下，欧洲债券利率亦将下行。加息预期下，日本国债利率维持高位。 美元指数：美联储将连续降息并将停止缩表，欧元区降息节奏放缓，日本尚有加息预期。美欧日政策节 奏差异和分化将使美元呈现弱势。 黄金：短期，黄金期货保证金比率提高，加上涨幅过大，黄金价格存在一定回调压力；中期，金价仍有 较强支撑（财政债务、货币宽松、主权国家购金）。 华西大类资产 海外经济基本面与展望： 美国：美国经济边际放缓，供给端无 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 两项货币政策工具落地满一年 长钱入市增强资本市场内在稳定性 本报记者 吴晓璐 去年10月18日，中国人民银行等部门创设了两项支持资本市场货币政策工具（以下简称"两项货币工 具"）——股票回购增持再贷款和证券、基金、保险公司互换便利（以下简称"互换便利"），首期额度 合计8000亿元。 政策"活水"，贵在长流。一年来，两项货币工具通过逆周期调节，为市场注入数千亿元资金，有效提振 投资者信心，降低A股波动率，增强了资本市场的内在稳定性。其中，互换便利开展两次操作，累计金 额1050亿元，参与机构从20家扩容至40家。同时，近700家上市公司、主要股东披露使用回购增持贷 款，贷款上限合计超3300亿元。在政策持续优化与资金落地的双重推动下，A股市场企稳回升态势逐步 巩固，为"长钱"入市进一步打开了空间。 创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，过去一年，两项货币工具发挥 了重要作用。一方面，提振了投资者信心，改善了金融市场预期，增强了资本市场内在稳定性；另一方 面，为上市公司市值管理提供支持，互换便利增强了参与主体资金 ...