证券研究报告 持以恒，等风来 ——2025年11月投资策略 分析师：徐陈翼 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 3 分析师：王亦奕 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 2 分析师：张洲驰 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 4 分析师：熊宇翔 S A C ：S 0 1 6 0 5 2 4 0 7 0 0 0 3 联系人：常瑛珞 报告日期： 2025 年 1 1 月 2 日 核心观点 外部摩擦暂缓、国内政策蓝图明晰、企业盈利加速改善，三重因素共振，市场有望蓄力再向上。海外方面，中美会谈取得阶段性进展，关税加征与出口管制缓和，利好风 险偏好回升。尽管美联储10月降息后释放鹰派信号，但就业市场渐进降温、通胀逐步回落至目标位，为继续降息提供基础。且往后看，新的美联储主席人选即将提名，降 息确定性有望进一步提升。国内"十五五"规划建议正式落地，整体更倾向高质量发展+结构上支持科技与现代化产业，中长期利好新质生产力。企业盈利增速提升与上 市公司业绩改善互相印证，在反内卷与新质生产力政策支持下，盈利有望继续趋势性改善，市场整体下行风险 ...

核心指数利润对比：2025年三季报主要指数净利润同比增速均改善，其中沪深300、中证500盈利增幅扩 大，中证1000盈利同比转正。2025Q3沪深300/中证500/中证1000单季度利润增速为11.0%/16.6%/3.3%。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，截至10月31日上午，A股上市公司2025年三季报业绩基本披 露完毕（披露率99.9%）。受益于低基数效应、部分行业供需结构改善，价格上涨驱动，Q3整体A股盈 利和收入均改善。大类行业中信息技术增速相对领先，资源品、金融等盈利改善。推荐关注业绩增速相 对较高、自由现金流延续回暖以及供需改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：上市公司三季报净利润同比增幅扩大。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，全A 2025Q1/2025Q2/2025Q3单季度净利润增速依次为3.2%/1.2%/11.6%，累计增速依次为3.2%/2.3%/5.2%， 非金融石油石化2025Q1/2025Q2/2025Q3单季度净利润增速依次为4.5%/-0.1%/5.3%，累计增速依次为 4.5%/2.3%/3.0%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速延续改善。全部A股202 ...

● 本报记者 赵中昊 经济转型的"势"已形成，产业突破与资金再配置正在深刻重塑中国资本市场的生态格局。华泰证券研究 所所长、总量研究负责人、固收首席张继强近日在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来我国的宏 观经济图景呈现诸多积极转变，经济尾部风险降低，新旧动能转换进入新阶段，通缩压力有所缓和，加 之国内外流动性保持充裕，资本市场生态持续改善。 张继强表示，随着"十五五"规划将为中长期发展定调，以及美联储开启降息周期推动全球流动性环境趋 于宽松，国内外资金对中国资产的关注度不断提升，中国资本市场长期向好的基础正不断夯实。 "反内卷"仍服务于高质量发展 在分析今年的市场主线时，"反内卷"作为一个共识性主题，频繁出现在各大券商的研报中。在张继强看 来，"反内卷"对推动中国经济供求平衡、改善营商环境、推动物价合理回升、促进企业盈利好转等都大 有裨益。不过，他同时表示，当前的供需不平衡产生的原因比2015年更为复杂。 "2015年的过剩产能主要存在于上游国企，供给侧改革效果显著。但当前的供需不平衡产生的原因更复 杂，民企、先进产能与地方保护等特征加大了处理难度，光伏和新能源车是典型行业。"张继强说，统 一大市场政策正 ...

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for November 2025, highlighting potential investment opportunities based on performance and market conditions [2]. Banking Sector - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ) shows an improving trend in Q3 performance with a continuous decline in non-performing loan generation rate and a positive shift in net interest margin, indicating a solid bottom line [2]. Non-Banking Financials - Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) is recommended due to its strong stock characteristics and reasonable valuation, with expectations of outperforming the index as Q3 earnings season approaches [2]. Real Estate - China Jinmao (0817.HK) is positioned favorably due to stable sales and proactive expansion, with a better risk release compared to other major real estate firms, amidst a challenging sales environment [2]. Electronics - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) benefits from the growing demand for AI server products, leading to significant increases in GB series server shipments and a steady rise in market share among major clients [2]. Telecommunications - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) is a leading company in optical modules, expected to benefit from the rising global demand for data center optical modules driven by AI development in 2026-2027 [2]. Power Equipment and New Energy - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) is recognized for its comprehensive solutions in photovoltaic power generation and energy storage, with steady growth driven by expanding market demand [2]. - Dongsheng Technology (300073.SZ) is noted for its leading position in ternary cathode materials, with anticipated growth from the recovery of European new energy vehicle demand and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2]. Metals and Materials - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is highlighted for its strong earnings potential and high valuation appeal, with significant growth prospects in gold, copper, and lithium mining [2]. Internet - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is seen as a key player in the AI era, leveraging its ecosystem advantages to capture market opportunities, particularly in e-commerce and AI agent services [2]. Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is expected to rebound as new nuclear units are set to be commissioned, with market prices for nuclear power projected to increase [2].

Core Conclusions - In the context of a fully realized profit effect throughout the year, fourth-quarter funding behavior tends to be conservative, with market style often shifting towards "profit quality + valuation safety" large-cap blue chips [2][3] - The overall market shows a tendency for risk rebalancing in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and performance strategies showing positive excess returns relative to the entire A-share market, indicating a shift towards fundamental certainty as the trading focus moves from "high elasticity" to "high stability" [3][9] - Leading sectors in the fourth quarter are concentrated in financial, stable, and cyclical sectors, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite and a demand to lock in annual returns [3][17] Calendar Effects in Q4 - The fourth quarter is characterized by a tendency for conservative funding behavior, with a shift towards large-cap blue chips that emphasize profit quality and valuation safety [9][21] - Historical data from 2005 to 2024 shows that micro-cap stocks have a leading win rate, but differences among styles are not significant, suggesting a potential risk rebalancing feature in Q4 [9][17] - The trading behavior in Q4 tends to exhibit reduced volatility, with a marginal tightening of market liquidity and a decrease in average turnover rate [3][9] Switching Conditions Assessment - Attention should be paid to whether the conditions for switching to undervalued sectors are maturing and whether the prosperity of high-valued sectors can be sustained [21] - Some financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors remain at historically low valuations, indicating safety margins and switching potential; however, merely relying on low valuations may not drive a sustainable market trend without policy catalysts and improvements in economic data [21][21]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the North Stock 50 Index rising nearly 1% and around 3,300 stocks in the market showing gains [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3,869.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22%, and the North Stock 50 Index rose by 0.97% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North Stock markets reached 12,806 billion [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as military industry, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and brokerage firms saw declines, while pharmaceuticals, retail, textiles and apparel, liquor, and food and beverage sectors experienced gains [1] - Innovative drugs and AI application concepts were particularly active [1] Analyst Insights - Huashan Securities indicated that short-term market volatility often leads to structural changes, predicting a cooling off in previously strong sectors [1] - The potential for short-term "high-cut low" or "catch-up" in weaker sectors is highlighted, with financials (banking, insurance, non-bank), public utilities, steel, petrochemicals, food and beverage, and home appliances suggested as potential strong rotation directions [1] - The report emphasizes that while short-term strong directions may cool, they also provide better layout opportunities [1] - Overall, the market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with sector rotations, while the medium to long-term upward trend remains intact, indicating the importance of maintaining the correct direction in investment strategy [1]

细分方向看，行业主题ETF流入较多的方向主要集中在周期(有色)、大金融(非银、银行)、自主可控(电子、军工、计算机)、先进制造(新能源、医药)、消 费，流出方向主要集中在地产、通信、自由现金流、机械设备、传媒、化工。 兴业证券发布研报称，10月13日，股票型ETF净流入153.9亿元，其中宽基ETF净流出30.7亿元，风格策略&行业主题ETF净流入184.7亿元。宽基ETF中， 沪深300流入较多；风格策略&行业主题ETF中，周期、金融地产、制造流入较多。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 10月13日，股票型ETF净流入153.9亿元，其中宽基ETF净流出30.7亿元，风格策略&行业主题ETF净流入184.7亿元。 细分方向看，行业主题ETF中，流入较多的方向主要集中在周期(有色)、大金融(非银、银行)、自主可控(电子、军工、计算机)、先进制造(新能源、医 药)、消费，流出方向主要集中在地产、通信、自由现金流、机械设备、传媒、化工。 宽基ETF中，沪深300流入较多，科创板、中证A500、中证1000流出较多。 风格策略&行业主题ETF中，周期、金融地产、制造流入较多。 风险提示 因数据不完备导致计算结果与实际结果存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Yuexiu Property, New China Life Insurance, Nanjing Bank, and others [13][18][19][25][35][42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with August showing a significant year-on-year profit growth of 20.4%, although revenue growth remains modest at 1.9% [10]. - The real estate sector is under pressure, but there is potential for policy easing to create trading opportunities, particularly for quality developers with low inventory [11]. - Non-bank financials are expected to maintain high growth in Q3, driven by market enthusiasm and performance of leading stocks [14]. - The banking sector is viewed positively, especially for quality city commercial banks, which are expected to offer stable dividends and growth [17]. - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on technological advancements and market demand recovery [20]. - The machinery sector is transitioning from traditional industries to growth segments, with a focus on companies with dual growth curves [27]. - The military industry is seen as promising, with investment opportunities in military trade, internal equipment, and civilian conversion [33]. - The light industry is expected to benefit from new consumption trends and overseas growth, with an emphasis on high dividend and low valuation stocks [36]. - The environmental sector presents various investment opportunities across absolute returns, growth, and aggressive strategies [43]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of demand in Q4, with industrial profit growth driven by state-owned enterprise investment returns [10]. Real Estate - The report notes increasing downward pressure on housing prices in core cities, but anticipates potential policy support for quality developers [11][12]. Non-Bank Financials - The sector is expected to continue its high growth trend, with a focus on leading stocks and insurance companies benefiting from improved return on equity [14][16]. Banking - Quality city commercial banks are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable earnings and dividend yields [17][18][19]. New Energy - The report identifies a stable outlook for the new energy sector, particularly in solar and storage technologies, with a focus on leading companies [20][23][25][26]. Machinery - The machinery sector is transitioning to growth areas, with recommendations for companies that show strong growth potential [27][30][31]. Military - Investment opportunities are identified in military trade and technology, with a focus on companies leading in military aircraft and related technologies [33][34]. Light Industry - The report highlights growth potential in new consumption and overseas markets, with a focus on companies with strong operational capabilities [36][38][39]. Environmental - The environmental sector is seen as having multiple investment opportunities, particularly in waste management and water services [43][44][50].

Market Performance - On September 29, the market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.74%[3] - The total trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan, a slight increase of approximately 10 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Analysis - Non-bank, non-ferrous metals, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, while coal, banking, social services, and oil sectors experienced slight declines[1] - The semiconductor equipment sector maintained strength, showing limited decline with significant gains near the market close, indicating strong stability in investor sentiment[2] Capital Flow - On September 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 35.651 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 46.963 billion yuan[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were securities, batteries, and consumer electronics, while the sectors with the highest outflows were chemical pharmaceuticals, coal mining, and white goods[4] Economic Indicators - From January to August, state-owned enterprises reported total profits of 27,937.2 billion yuan, with total operating revenue of 539,620.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2%[8] - The asset-liability ratio for state-owned enterprises was 65.2% at the end of August, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[8] Industry Developments - China has built the world's largest and most comprehensive water conservancy infrastructure system, with 95,000 reservoirs and over 200 major water diversion projects completed by the end of 2024[5][9] - The automotive sector saw an import and export total of 25.81 billion USD in August, with a month-on-month increase of 3.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive with expectations of further easing from the Federal Reserve, which has already lowered rates by 25 basis points in September, with projections for additional cuts by the end of the year [2] - A-shares are experiencing a high level of trading activity, with average daily turnover exceeding 2.45 trillion yuan in September, up from 2.31 trillion yuan in August, indicating strong market liquidity [2] - The technology sector continues to show strength, with the Wande Technology Index accounting for 40.8% of total A-share trading volume, reflecting ongoing liquidity inflows into this sector [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector is characterized by a clear differentiation between high and low performers, with previous leaders like optical modules and communication equipment seeing lower gains in September, while semiconductor materials and energy storage stocks have shown significant recovery [2][3] - Cyclical and dividend-paying stocks remain weak due to poor economic data, with various sectors underperforming compared to technology [3] - The current risk premium for A-shares is low, with the risk premium for the CSI 300 index at 5.19%, close to historical lows, suggesting limited downside potential [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on technology stocks with a strong price-performance ratio, particularly those that have lagged behind in previous rallies, to enhance potential returns [5] - There is an emphasis on upstream materials related to energy storage and semiconductor industries, such as lithium and cobalt, which are expected to benefit from ongoing demand growth in electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing [5] - The October stock selection includes a diverse range of sectors, highlighting companies in innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, automotive, and communications, indicating a strategic approach to capitalize on sectoral strengths [10][11]