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港股单日暴涨3.5%!恒生指数突破27000点,资本很有可能进行重新评估
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-03 18:44
恒生指数单日涨幅达1.61%,冲破27000点关口,创下年内新高;恒生科技指数更是飙升至3.36%,半导体龙头中芯国际股价暴涨12.7%, 华虹半导体跟涨7.13%,黄金、铜价同步冲上热搜。 以往游资短炒的套路,正被外资长线布局的资本暗流取代。 2010年以来港股国庆期间上涨概率高达86.7%,节后首日回调概率超过50%。 此次外资的买入策略与往年有本质区别。 美联储10月降息概率已达100%,12月再降概率88%,这意味着全球流动性宽松周期将持续至少半年。 关键的是,此轮港股大涨发生在沪股通休市期间,完全是外资主动扫货,而非等待A股开盘后抛售套利。 从资金属性看,北向资金近期单周净流入超400亿元,且集中在半导体、新能源等产业趋势明确的领域,而非短期消息催化的题材股。 贝莱德、高盛等机构近期将中国股票评级上调至"超配",理由是中美利差收窄与估值洼地效应。 2020年消费股抱团行情依赖货币宽松,2022年新能源炒作依赖政策补贴,而当前半导体和有色板块的驱动力来自技术突破和全球供需错配,其持续性 可能跨越多个季度。 华泰证券指出,若市场本身处于上升趋势中,国庆"日历效应"会更显著,而当前科技与资源板块正是趋势性 ...
9/30财经夜宵:得知基金净值排名及选基策略,赶紧告知大家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 13:56
30日开放式基金净值增长排名前10的基金分别是:永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起A、永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起C、中航远见领航混合发起A、中航远见 领航混合发起C、华夏军工安全混合C、华夏军工安全混合A、方正富邦核心优势混合C、方正富邦核心优势混合A、长城景气成长混合C、长城景气成长混 一顿操作猛如虎,目前已有28915只基金更新净值,谁是基金中的王者,谁又垫底,请看数据: 写在文章前的声明:在本文之前的说明:本文中所列的投资信息,只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述,并无主观倾向性,也不是投资建议,纯属 娱乐性质。 【备注:永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起A/C是新发基金,成立日期在2025年9月12日,目前没有任何十大持仓公示,但应该是半导体方向的(等于没说)我 猜是存储芯片概念】 | 排名 | 代码 | 基金简称 | 2025-09-30 | | 2025-09-29 | | 理测量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 单位净值8 | 累计净值$ | 单位净值8 | 累计净值$ | | | 1 | 025208 | 永赢先锋半导 ...
A股节后怎么走?谁会站上风口?机构最新研判来了!
天天基金网· 2025-09-30 06:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sentiment and strategies of private equity funds as they approach the National Day holiday, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for the market post-holiday, with a significant portion of funds choosing to hold high positions in their portfolios [4][6][11]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [6][4]. - The overall private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, marking a 0.37 percentage point increase from the previous week and reflecting a trend of increased allocations [6][4]. - The majority of private equity funds are optimistic about the market's performance after the holiday, with 70.19% expecting a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital support [9][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The primary investment focus is on technology growth sectors, with 59.62% of private equity funds highlighting areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key opportunities [10][4]. - A significant portion of funds (21.15%) is also looking at the valuation recovery in the new energy and real estate sectors, anticipating that clearer industry policies will provide rebound opportunities [10][4]. - There is a belief that the market will exhibit a balanced style post-holiday, with 62.50% of funds expecting a rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and leading stocks [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment among private equity funds is generally positive, with many viewing the current market as transitioning from the second to the third phase of a bull market [11][12]. - The article notes that historical data shows a greater than 70% probability of market gains following the National Day holiday, supported by liquidity from institutional investments and retail participation [11][12]. - The anticipated "slow bull" market trend suggests that while short-term volatility may occur, the long-term outlook remains favorable, particularly for technology growth sectors [12][11].
和讯投顾蒲宇宁:机构节后布局3大方向!年报行情才是真正的大肉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 05:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the real investment opportunities will emerge during the annual report season, despite the current market index reaching 3800 points, indicating a focus on performance-driven investments by institutions [1] Group 1: Investment Directions - Institutions are expected to focus on three main areas for investment post-holiday: resource sectors, overseas demand, and industries benefiting from reduced competition [1] Group 2: Resource Sector - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals and precious metals, is highlighted as a stable investment choice due to price increases driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Overseas Demand - The demand from overseas markets, particularly in sectors related to Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple supply chains, is seen as a reliable growth area, despite some trade friction [1] Group 4: Anti-Competition Dynamics - Industries such as photovoltaics, silicon wafers, and chemicals are expected to transition from widespread losses to significant profitability due to production cuts and reduced supply chain inventories, indicating a high potential for recovery [1]
“牛市旗手”如愿爆发!行情要来了?别慌!一定要抓住主线
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 05:40
今天,传来了"十五五"规划的消息。 据新华社消息,中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议,研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划重大问题。 实际上,近期,我国陆续推出新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方案,明确下一阶段行业增长目标, 并围绕提升供给能力、扩大有效市场、优化发展生态等方面部署一系列举措。 据达哥不完全统计,已经发布稳增长工作方案的行业至少有9个,包括电子信息制造业、电力装 备、汽车、钢铁、有色金属、石化化工、建材、机械、轻工业,涵盖从高端制造到传统原材料的多个关 键领域。 而在政策方面,国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超9月29日表示,当前经济运行 当中依然面临着不少的风险和挑战,外部环境仍然严峻复杂,经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下 一步,国家发展改革委将持续发力,适时加力实施宏观政策。 对于"十五五"规划,应聚焦哪些板块? 银河证券给出了以下四个方向:新质生产力主题、"反内卷"板块、大消费板块、"两重"领域。在新 质生产力主题方面,顺应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科技企业将是"十五五"规划背景下A股投资的 重要主线。 中信建投认为,预计贯穿"十五五"规划的三条重要主线有科技、内需与 ...
逾六成私募将重仓过节
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-09-30 05:28
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday has led to increased attention on private equity fund positioning and their outlook for post-holiday market trends [1] Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are opting for heavy or full positions during the holiday, indicating a positive outlook for market trends post-holiday [2][4] - The overall private equity position index has risen to a new high for the year, reaching 78.41%, reflecting a general trend of increasing positions among private equity funds [5] - A majority of private equity funds believe that the recent market adjustments have mitigated risks, leading to an expectation of continued market rebound post-holiday [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - Approximately 70.19% of private equity funds hold an optimistic view regarding the A-share market's performance after the holiday, anticipating a gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [7] - 62.50% of private equity funds expect a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotation among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [7][8] - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds prioritizing sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals for investment [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - Private equity funds are particularly optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support and economic transformation, such as AI and semiconductors [8][10] - Some funds are also looking at opportunities in undervalued sectors like renewable energy and real estate, anticipating valuation recovery [8][10] - The investment strategy is expected to balance between growth and value, with a focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for recovery [10][11]
国证国际港股晨报-20250930
Guosen International· 2025-09-30 05:08
港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国证国际证券(香港)有限公司 • 研究部 周一,港股三大指数均表现强势,恒生指数涨 1.89%,国企指数涨 1.62%,恒 生科技指数涨 2.08%。大市成交金额 3090.96 亿元,主板总卖空金额 409.01 亿 元,占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 14.76%。南向资金流(北水)反转流出。港 股通净流出金额为 16.54 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中,北水净买入最 多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK;净卖出最 多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、中国移动 941.HK、美团 3690.HK。北向资金方面, 9 月 30 日北向资金共成交 2946.18 亿元,占两市总成交额的 13.63%。紫金矿 业 601899.SH、中信证券 600030.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三, 成交额分别为 31.38 亿、27.23 亿、23.41 亿;宁德时代 300750.SZ、东方财富 300059.SZ、阳光电源 300274.SZ 位列深股通成交前三,成交额分别为 37.86 亿、33.92 ...
逾六成私募将重仓过节
证券时报· 2025-09-30 04:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positioning of private equity funds ahead of the National Day holiday, indicating a general optimism about the market's performance post-holiday, with a significant majority opting for high exposure levels [2][5][6]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of private equity funds are choosing to hold heavy or full positions (over 70% exposure) during the holiday, believing that external market disturbances will be limited and that domestic fundamentals and policy environments provide a solid safety margin [5][6]. - 17.31% of private equity funds are adopting a moderately heavy position (50% to 70% exposure), citing the presence of uncertainties during the holiday but still recognizing structural opportunities in individual stocks [5]. - Only 5.77% of private equity funds are opting for light positions (less than 30% exposure), reflecting a cautious stance due to significant market gains prior to the holiday and potential for adjustments post-holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook Post-Holiday - 70.19% of private equity funds are optimistic about the A-share market's performance after the holiday, viewing pre-holiday market fluctuations as a consolidation phase, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by policy and capital [8][12]. - 62.50% of private equity funds anticipate a balanced market style post-holiday, with rotations among technology growth, value blue chips, and high-quality stocks [8][9]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, with 59.62% of private equity funds favoring sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for future economic transformation [9][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Themes - The article highlights a consensus among private equity funds that the investment focus will remain on technology growth, with 23.08% firmly optimistic about sectors like AI and semiconductors continuing to perform well [9][10]. - 21.15% of private equity funds are looking at the valuation recovery of the new energy and real estate sectors, expecting these low-valuation areas to provide rebound opportunities as industry policies clarify [9][10]. - The article also notes that 14.42% of private equity funds foresee a "high-low switch" in the market, where previously lagging traditional industries and high-dividend blue chips may experience a resurgence [9].
午评:三大股指半日收涨 半导体产业链爆发
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 04:09
Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.40% to 3878.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.31% to 13521.11 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.06% to 3240.02 points [2] - Overall, nearly 3000 stocks rose, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry saw significant growth, with Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% to reach a new historical high, and companies like Guolin Technology, Huamao Technology, and Wanye Enterprises hitting the daily limit [4] - SEMI data indicates that by Q2 2025, the market share of semiconductor equipment in mainland China is expected to exceed 30%, driven by domestic wafer fab capacity expansion and increased market penetration by local equipment manufacturers [4] - Notably, SMIC's capacity utilization rate is projected at 92.5% for the first half of 2025, while Huahong Semiconductor is expected to achieve 108.3% [4] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with stocks like Jingyi Co., Xiyang Co., and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit [5] - On September 29, the domestic cobalt market experienced a significant surge, with the average price of 1 cobalt reported at 337,000 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 29,000 yuan, the largest single-day rise this year [5] Group 4: Other Sectors - The military industry saw gains, with companies like Huaqin Technology leading the increase [1] - Conversely, the financial sector faced a collective adjustment, with Yunan Rural Commercial Bank leading the decline [1] - The wind power equipment sector experienced fluctuations, with Zhenjiang Co. showing notable declines, while the consumer sector weakened, particularly in the liquor segment, with Huangtai Liquor leading the drop [1][3]
存储芯片涨价潮下,A股投资机会几何?三大指数拉升揭示答案
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 03:55
骑牛看熊发现无论后续中美关系走势如何,我国国产芯片替代趋势明确。海外大型基础设施建设如火如荼,英伟达芯片出货量持续上调,AI 的大趋势无需 质疑。近期,华为、海光、昆仑芯等多家国产AI 芯片企业在技术和商业化落地方面取得突破,其产品在性能和性价比上进一步提升。国产AI 芯片大时代已 经来临,国产AI 产业链从上游先进制程到先进封装,到下游字节阿里腾讯的模型加速迭代升级已经实现全产业链打通,我们坚定看好国产AI 算力设施的加 速突破。 外盘金融市场轮番新高,这与9月份美联储降息25个基点有关,随着国庆节8天长假的来临,机构资金开始进行减仓避险。一方面是过节期间外围市场走势变 化多端,适当减仓是情理之中的,毕竟先涨后跌的行情大家也看得多了。另一方面是资金的抽离,随着A股市场在3900点附近久攻不上,一些大资金也会开 始布局海外市场,这也是情理之中的事情。10月份将会是3季度业绩报的密集发布期,再加上政策利好逐渐显现,依然要根据市场风向来进行参与A股市场 的新方向布局。 上证指数周二高开后横盘震荡,两市上涨个股相对前一日明显减少,做盘情绪有所减弱,流出资金节前始终没有回流,看来是去做外盘市场了。科技行业集 中度未达 ...