炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 今天（8月14日）下午，三大指数高开低走，创指跌超1%，沪指3700点得而复失，终结8连阳。对此， 东方财富（24.360， -0.22， -0.90%）证券研究所副所长首席策略官陈果就"突破"924"行情高点A股接下 来怎么走"进行解析。>>视频直播 当前A股市场正处于一轮与2014-2015年杠杆牛不同的牛市行情中，增量资金以"润物细无声"的方式缓慢 流入，主要由专业机构投资者和大类资产配置资金主导，市场表现更加稳健和理性。券商板块虽然受益 于牛市环境，但由于监管趋严和业务模式转向固收类为主，其业绩改善相对温和，弹性有限。从资金面 来看，融资余额突破2万亿元关口反映了市场信心回升，但个人投资者尚未大规模入场，未来增量资金 潜力主要来自保险资金增配权益资产、银行理财资金入市以及居民储蓄向股市转移。 本轮行情的驱动因素正在发生变化：短期由风险偏好提升和无风险利率下行推动，中长期则需要盈利增 长接力。投资者需关注国内经济名义增速的回升、美联储降息预期以及中美贸易谈判进展等关键变量。 在板块配置方面，建议重点关注具备国际化竞争力的成长性资产 ...

盘面上看，钢铁、汽车、化工、煤炭、石油、有色、半导体等板块走低，保险板块逆市拉升，券商、银 行板块相对坚挺，数字货币、人脑工程概念等活跃。 华安证券指出，随着A股赚钱效应的水涨船高，内驱动能中的核心因素，即微观流动性持续流入已进入 良性循环，因此继续看好本轮牛市行情的进一步演绎。此外支撑内驱动力良性循环的一个重要因素在于 市场投资主体对本轮牛市行情的广泛共识和一致预期，信心重于黄金。配置思路上，牛市氛围中首重上 涨弹性，而上涨弹性通常被三种情形所激发，一是成长科技板块具备天然高弹性，二是业绩有支撑的板 块容易凝聚资金共识，三是出现催化剂的板块。 14日，三大股指盘中冲高回落，沪指突破3700点后震荡翻绿，深证成指、创业板指跌约1%，科创50指 数相对强势；场内超4600股飘绿。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 截至收盘，沪指跌0.46%，深证成指跌0.87%报11451.43点，创业板指跌1.08%报2469.66点，科创50指数 涨0.75%；沪深北三市合计成交23066亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has led to a weaker US dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth slowed in July, but policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties, with different asset classes showing various trends [2]. - Different sectors in the market have different outlooks. For example, the stock market may be strong in the short - term, precious metals are supported at high levels, the black metal market is expected to be volatile, the non - ferrous and new energy sectors are showing weakness, the energy and chemical sector is facing downward pressure, and the agricultural products market has various influencing factors [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US Treasury Secretary indicated a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed, and multiple Fed officials' dovish stances led to a decline in the US dollar index and rising global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with economic growth slowing. Trade deficit decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. Policies may boost consumption, and the extension of the tariff truce period reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. Asset trends: stocks may be strong in the short - term, bonds may oscillate and correct, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors like armament restructuring, industrial metals, and components, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with short - term upward macro - drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices showed different trends on Wednesday. Moderate inflation data in the US strengthened the expectation of a September rate cut, pushing up the expectation of a loose environment. The weakening US dollar and lower 10 - year Treasury yields supported precious metals at high levels. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it retraces to support levels [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened on Wednesday. Japan's anti - dumping investigation on steel from South Korea and China dampened market sentiment. Demand continued to weaken, inventories increased, and production decreased. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices of iron ore weakened slightly. With the expansion of production restrictions in the north, iron ore supply decreased, but port inventories increased, and prices may weaken in the short - term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices weakened slightly. Demand for ferroalloys decreased due to a decline in steel production. Silicon manganese prices were stable, and manganese ore prices were firm. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [6][7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: US inflation data met expectations overall. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is low. Copper inventories are at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly on Wednesday. However, its fundamentals weakened, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The medium - term upside is limited [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, increasing production costs and causing losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season, with weak demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [8]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 increased slightly, and the mining end may become looser. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated sharply on Wednesday. Spot prices increased, and the supply shortage due to mine shutdowns supported prices. Long - term bullish outlook, but pay attention to the progress of mine type changes [10][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fell on Wednesday. Pay attention to the influence of coking coal and polysilicon, and the cash - flow cost support [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices fell on Wednesday. The number of warehouse receipts increased, indicating stronger hedging and delivery intentions. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and the IEA warned of a record supply surplus next year, causing oil prices to decline. Pay attention to the impact of the meeting on promoting a cease - fire in Ukraine [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil costs were low and oscillating, and asphalt prices followed with limited weakness. Inventory removal was slow, and it may continue to be weak and oscillating [14]. - **PX**: PX prices oscillated narrowly. PTA device production cuts and low processing fees limited the recovery, and it will oscillate in the short - term [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined slightly. Profit recovery was limited, and demand growth was restricted. Supply pressure decreased, and it is expected to be range - bound in August [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fell. Inventory pressure was relieved to a limited extent, and supply may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside and a risk of a slight decline [15][16]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices fell due to sector resonance. Terminal orders were average, and inventory accumulated. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [16]. - **Methanol**: Prices oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand contradictions were not prominent, but there were regional differences. It is expected to oscillate, and the spread between contracts is expected to narrow [17]. - **PP**: Spot prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was in the off - season. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [18]. - **LLDPE**: Prices rose. Supply pressure remained, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose overnight. The USDA's unexpected reduction in the planting area supported the market. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and Sino - US soybean trade relations [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: High domestic inventories of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal. If there are no major weather risks in South America, there is no stable market foundation in the medium - term. If China continues to purchase US soybeans or Canada's rapeseed products enter the market, prices may face downward pressure [20]. - **Soybean, Rapeseed, and Palm Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and supply is expected to shrink. Soybean oil's cost is stable, and its supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong. Domestic rapeseed oil was affected by policies, and related oils have limited short - term upside. Attention should be paid to soybean oil's catch - up rally and the buy - soybean - sell - palm oil arbitrage [20]. - **Corn**: Northeast corn prices are weak, with inactive trading. Supply is expected to be sufficient in late August, and the corn futures market is weak [21][22]. - **Hogs**: After continuous price drops, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

有色板块涨幅居前，物流、雷达、地产股表现活跃；CPO、PEEK材料、军工信息化概念温和回调。 （持续更新中……） 09:25 A股开盘｜上证指数涨0.06% 有色板块涨幅居前 三大股指集体高开，上证指数开盘报3685.52点，涨0.06%，深成指开盘报11557.0点，涨0.05%，创业板指开盘报 2496.63点，涨0.01%。有色板块涨幅居前，物流、雷达、地产股表现活跃；CPO、PEEK材料、军工信息化概念温和 回调。 | 板块:1 T | 涨幅 | 板块名称 | 涨幅4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 芬太尼 | +0.62% | 零售 | -0.64% | | 燃气 | +0.60% | 免税店 | -0.61% | | 高压氧舱 | +0.57% | 互联网保险 | -0.60% | | 电机 | +0.54% | 青海 | -0.39% | | 空气能热泵 | +0.53% | 医疗废物处理 | -0.36% | | 燃料电池 | +0.47% | 海南自贸区 | -0.34% | | 幸輝 | +0.47% | 天津自贸区 | -0.33% | | 光刻机 | +0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index, reaching a nearly four-year high, is attributed to increased trading volume and a favorable market environment, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in the A-share market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683 points, marking a 0.48% increase and surpassing the previous year's high, with trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan [2]. - Growth and small-cap stocks have shown strong performance, with the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices rising by 1.04% and 1.45% respectively, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62% [2]. - Sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals have outperformed, while banks, coal, and food and beverage sectors lagged [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Strength - The strong performance of the A-share market is driven by several factors: 1. Improved market liquidity and attractiveness of the stock market due to increased household savings and a shift in investor sentiment [3]. 2. A projected end to four consecutive years of declining earnings growth, with an upward revision of the 2025 A-share earnings forecast to 3.5%, indicating a positive shift in corporate profitability [3]. 3. A decrease in external uncertainties, highlighted by a recent U.S.-China joint statement and lower-than-expected U.S. CPI, which enhances the outlook for Chinese assets [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment suggests that the ongoing rally may resemble an "enhanced version of 2013," with expectations of better overall performance compared to that year [4]. - The recommendation is to focus on sectors with high growth potential and verified performance, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals, as well as financial sectors like brokerage and insurance that benefit from increased retail investment [4].

证券时报记者 梁谦刚 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，此轮突破由政策驱动、流动性改善与市场 情绪共振共同催化。 政策层面，今年政策"组合拳"密集落地，消费与服务业贷款贴息、险资入市门槛放宽等举措释放强预期信号，叠 加"反内卷+大基建"政策推动，形成持续支撑。 流动性方面，居民存款利率跌破1%加速"存款搬家"，两融余额突破2万亿元，北向资金持续净流入，增量资金入场 为市场提供充沛"弹药"。 技术面与情绪面亦显积极，上证指数月K线多头排列，科技与券商板块领涨，AI算力、光模块等赛道估值修复带动 风险偏好显著提升，形成正向循环。 8月13日，A股延续上攻步伐，上证指数盘中突破3674.40关键点位，收盘涨幅0.48%，报收3683.46点，创2024 年"9·24"行情以来的新高，年内累计涨幅接近10%。深证成指、创业板指、科创50指数也缓步上行，逼近"9·24"行 情以来的高点。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，上证指数最新指数与年内4月7日创下的低点相比，反弹幅度达21.14%，已进入技术性牛 市。 大盘指数不断攀升的背后，是A股市场成交活跃度显著提升以及融资资金进场提速。数据显示，8月1 ...

今日上证综指创下阶段新高，收盘至3683点，创业板大幅上涨3.62%，两市成交放量至2.17万亿，呈现 放量上涨。港股恒生指数今日同样大幅上涨，涨幅2.58%。 WIND数据显示，申万31个一级行业中有22个行业上涨。其中，通信、有色、电子、医药、电力设备、 军工等高风偏方向涨幅靠前，而银行、煤炭、食品饮料等低估值行业表现回调。全市场5300多只股票中 有2730只下跌，市场结构性行情特征明显。 短期关税带来的美国通胀压力尚不明显，9月美联储降息预期抬升。昨晚公布的美国7月CPI同比2.7%， 低于市场预期2.8%，环比0.2%，符合市场预期；7月核心CPI同比3.1%，略超市场预期3.0%，环比 0.3%，符合市场预期。结构上，7月核心CPI升温主要由医疗、交运等服务通胀推动，对应7月薪资环比 偏强；而核心商品CPI环比持平上月，除了车辆之外的商品分项表现较弱，显示目前关税传导仍然有 限。市场对于未明显超预期的通胀数据（尤其商品通胀没起来），交易9月降息概率提升至93%，但全 年降息预期边际回落至2.386次。美元走弱，10年美债利率走出V型，美股涨，黄金跌。往后看，伴随库 存去化，美国国内厂商或会逐步开始 ...

Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations and rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing previous highs, reaching the highest level since December 2021 [1] - The ChiNext Index saw an increase of over 1% during the trading session [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as coal, logistics, agriculture, healthcare, liquor, and oil showed declines, while the military industry sector performed strongly [3] - Sectors including non-ferrous metals, automobiles, steel, and semiconductors saw upward movements, with industrial gases, PEEK materials, and photolithography machine concepts being particularly active [3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment improved significantly due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Policy direction is gradually shifting towards supporting residents, exemplified by the introduction of fertility subsidies, which lays a foundation for economic recovery [3] - The strong performance of global risk assets further boosted the risk appetite in the A-share market, with expectations that both large and small caps will work together to break through historical resistance levels [3]

盘面上看，券商板块走高，有色、医药、保险、汽车、半导体、地产等板块均走强，液冷服务器、CPO 概念、创新药、光刻机概念等活跃。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.56%报3686.34点，深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.81%，沪深北三市合计成交 13285亿元。 东莞证券表示，当前市场情绪仍维持强势，两融余额持续攀升至2万亿元大关并创十年新高，印证了本 轮行情主要由增量流动性驱动的核心特征。短期看，市场技术面强势背景下，仍有惯性反弹挑战前期高 点机会，需要注意的是高位的震荡反复。中期视角下，随着中美贸易形势再度缓和，而8月既处于国内 政策相对真空期，又叠加上市公司半年报集中披露的时间窗口，预计结构性板块轮动的特征将进一步凸 显。展望后市，在境内无风险利率系统性下行的牵引下，叠加海外美元流动性外溢效应的助推，增量资 金流入的动能有望延续，为市场提供关键性支撑。 13日早盘，A股三大股指强势拉升，沪指盘中创2021年12月以来新高；深证成指涨超1%，创业板指大 涨近3%，均创阶段新高。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved significantly due to the easing of US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Market Performance - On August 13, the three major stock indices experienced fluctuations but ultimately rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing previous highs, reaching its highest level since December 2021 [1] - The ChiNext Index saw an increase of over 1% during the trading session [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, logistics, agriculture, healthcare, liquor, and oil saw declines, while the military industry sector performed strongly [1] - Other sectors including non-ferrous metals, automotive, steel, and semiconductors experienced upward momentum, with industrial gases, PEEK materials, and photolithography machine concepts being particularly active [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - Pacific Securities indicated that the policy direction is gradually shifting towards supporting residents, exemplified by the introduction of birth subsidies, which lays a foundation for economic recovery [1] - The strong performance of global risk assets has further boosted the risk appetite in the A-share market, with expectations that both large and small caps will work together to break through historical resistance levels [1]