Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center have jointly launched a high-sulfur 380CST fuel oil "China Zhoushan Fuel Oil Bonded Ship Supply Buyer Quotation" to enhance the integrated pricing system of futures and spot markets [1] - This new quotation is based on the futures price of fuel oil from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, processed daily from international shipowner quotes, providing a unified premium and discount price [1] - The introduction of this quotation enriches the RMB pricing system for bonded marine fuel oil in China, offering significant reference price indicators for the shipping fuel industry [1] - The launch also includes a price window system for low-sulfur fuel oil, ensuring comprehensive coverage of pricing and transaction functions for both high and low sulfur fuel oils [1] - The new high-sulfur buyer quotation and the price window system enhance the efficiency of using RMB premium and discount quotes in the shipping fuel industry, further improving the price discovery and pricing functions of the futures market [1] Future Developments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center will continue to collaborate to support the construction of the oil and gas trading market in the Zhejiang Free Trade Zone and the Yangtze River Delta [2] - This partnership aims to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the shipping fuel industry and contribute to the integrated high-quality development of the Yangtze River Delta [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Author: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil fluctuated widely with increased volatility, and the price center generally moved downward. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the window transaction premium was weak, indicating weak spot market transactions. The domestic inventory was replenished in the early stage, and the near-month contracts were continuously suppressed. The domestic and international prices are expected to have limited improvement in the short term. However, there is a possibility that the US and Europe may increase sanctions on Russia, which will bring significant uncertainty to the high-sulfur supply and support prices. For low-sulfur fuel oil, in addition to the continuous supply recovery in Japan, Brazil's exports to the Asia-Pacific region also increased since the end of August. Coupled with some European arbitrage supplies in transit, the Asia-Pacific spot prices are expected to remain weak. The amount of the new quota is still one of the core factors affecting LU valuation. If the quota increases significantly year-on-year, given the high inventory in Zhoushan, the pattern of loose or even surplus supply will have an obvious negative impact on the LU market. Since the issuance time and specific scale of the new quota are still highly variable, continuous observation is needed [4]. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2650 - 2900, and LU in the range of 3300 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while LU is relatively weak. 2) Inter-period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter-variety: The cracking spread of FU will oscillate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The document presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low-sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly commercial volume of domestic fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are shown [20]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [23]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2025, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][36]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf from 2018 - 2025 are provided [38][39][41][43][44]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the swaps of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the swaps of 380 ship fuel in Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided [47][48]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57][58]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread**: Data on the high-sulfur cracking spread in Singapore, the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur cracking spread in Singapore, and the 1% cracking spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are provided [61][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the monthly spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are presented [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [71][73]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including major importing and exporting regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, Russia, and Latin America, are provided [75]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, including major importing and exporting regions such as Singapore, China, the US, the Middle East, and Japan, are provided [77]. Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices generally declined, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium increased [80]. - **Logic**: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, after the delivery, the inventory on the futures market was digested to some extent, which supported the prices of FU and LU and made them relatively stronger than the overseas spot prices. The premium of FU and LU relative to the Singapore market increased [80]. - **Spot and Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the 380 and 0.5% spot and futures market spreads between domestic and Singapore fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented [84][85][88][89][90]. - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous and first - month contracts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [93][95][98][100][101]. - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: Data on the changes in the quantity of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center have launched a new pricing mechanism for high-sulfur 380CST fuel oil, enhancing the integrated pricing system for the domestic fuel oil market [1][2] Group 1: New Pricing Mechanism - The newly released "China Zhoushan Fuel Oil Bonded Ship Supply Buyer Quote" is based on the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures prices, providing a unified premium/discount price for the market [1] - This pricing mechanism aims to enrich the RMB pricing system for bonded marine fuel oil in China, offering more significant reference price indicators for the marine fuel industry [1] Group 2: Market Development and Future Plans - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange have been focused on improving the futures market's service capabilities for the real economy, leading to steady development in the fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures markets [2] - Future collaboration between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Zhejiang International Bulk Commodity Trading Center will support the construction of the oil and gas trading market in the Yangtze River Delta Free Trade Zone, promoting high-quality and sustainable development in the marine fuel industry [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated weakly, the near-month spread continued to strengthen, the basis rebounded and then fluctuated, the EW spread continued to strengthen, and the FU internal and external spread was affected by the delivery warehouse. The low-sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread fluctuated weakly, and the LU internal and external spread fluctuated around 9 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis fluctuated [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage decreased slightly, ARA residual oil inventories increased significantly, floating storage inventories increased significantly, and EIA residual oil decreased slightly. The global supply and demand of high-sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high-sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread repair was completed, and the domestic high-sulfur spot was still in excess. Be wary of overheated sentiment [6]. - This week, LU remained weak, and the external MF0.5 basis remained volatile. Due to the support of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the United States, the opportunity of the low-sulfur to high-sulfur spread widening in the fourth quarter can be concerned [6]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO Swap M1 | -3.05 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | -6.29 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -14.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | 8.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.89 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -3.24 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -6.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -8.09 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -6.87 | | Singapore GO M1 | -1.33 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -0.35 | | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | 2.97 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -3.96 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.86 | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 16 | | FU 05 | 13 | | FU 09 | 5 | | FU 01 - 05 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -11 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Index | Change from 2025/09/05 - 2025/09/11 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -6 | | LU 05 | -6 | | LU 09 | -10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 0 | | LU 05 - 09 | 4 | | LU 09 - 01 | -4 | [5]

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]