Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations due to ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and significant increases in international energy prices, leading to a general downward trend in major indices [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% to close at 3957.05 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90% to 13866.20 points. The ChiNext Index, however, showed resilience with a 1.26% increase [2]. - The 每经品牌100指数 dropped by 3.04%, closing around 1046 points [2]. Company Highlights - Geely Automobile's stock surged by 12.18% in a week, with a market capitalization increase of 23 billion yuan, attributed to better-than-expected performance [4]. - Geely's 2025 sales target was exceeded, achieving 3.02 million units sold, a 39% year-on-year increase, with electric vehicle sales reaching over 1.68 million units, up 90% [4]. - The company reported total revenue of 345.2 billion yuan for 2025, a 25% increase, and a core net profit of 14.41 billion yuan, up 36% [4]. Strategic Outlook - Geely's management indicated that 2025 will be foundational for its export strategy, with a focus on international business and local production capacity [5]. - The company plans to launch several competitive new models, including the Geely Boyue REV and the Zeekr 8X, as part of a strong new product cycle [5]. Sales Performance - In February, Geely achieved sales of 206,000 units, with a cumulative total of 476,000 units for January and February, both showing year-on-year growth [6]. - Despite domestic sales being affected by subsidy policy changes and the Spring Festival, Geely's exports reached 121,000 units in the first two months, nearly doubling year-on-year [6]. - The internal target for overseas sales in 2026 is set at 750,000 units, representing an increase of nearly 80% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential for increased volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and developments in shipping, while also outlining key events in the upcoming week that could impact the U.S. stock market, including earnings reports from tech companies and major retailers, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials [1]. Earnings Focus: Tech Newcomers and Traditional Giants - WeRide (WRD) is set to release its earnings report on March 23, with market attention on its revenue growth and business progress in the autonomous driving sector, which may influence sentiment in the tech stock sector [2]. Multiple Industry Leaders Reporting - GameStop (GME) will report its earnings on March 24, focusing on its business transformation and cash flow status, with potential for significant stock price movement post-announcement. Other companies reporting on the same day include Smithfield Foods (SFD) and Braze (BRZE) [3]. - On March 25, companies such as Pinduoduo (PDD), Paychex (PAYX), Chewy (CHWY), Winnebago (WGO), and Jefferies (JEF) will announce their earnings, with options trading data indicating potential volatility for Noodles (NDLS) and Widepoint (WYY) following their reports [3]. - Commercial Metals Company (CMC) will release its earnings on March 26 [3]. Macro Observation: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements and Credit Data - Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michael Barr and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, will speak next week, with their comments likely to be closely analyzed for policy direction amid complex geopolitical and inflationary conditions. Additionally, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) report on March 26 will provide insights into changes in U.S. bank lending standards, which could indicate pressures on the banking sector or macroeconomic conditions [6]. Market Signals: Volatility and Technical Indicators - High implied volatility for Coinbase (COIN) and Lululemon (LULU) suggests potential price fluctuations next week. Short interest is notably high for Sunrun (RUN) and Omega Therapeutics (OMGAQ). Technical indicators show Tilly's (TLYS), Adecoagro (AGRO), and Kore Group (KORE) in overbought territory, while Crane Harbor Acquisition (CHAC), Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR), and HNI (HNI) are in oversold territory, indicating potential market reactions [8]. Industry Dynamics: Conferences and Votes - The ShopTalk conference on March 24 will feature executives from Reddit (RDDT), Wayfair (W), and Pinterest (PINS), while Zillow (ZG) will hold an investor event discussing AI applications in real estate. Additionally, CEOs from CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Varonis (VRNS) will speak at the RSA Security Conference [9]. - Shareholder votes will take place for Two Harbors Investment (TWO) regarding its acquisition by UWM Holdings (UWMC), Starbucks (SBUX) on establishing an independent board chair, and merger proposals for Heritage Commerce (HTBK) and CVB Financial (CVBF) [10].

Macro Insights - U.S. inflation remains sticky, with February PPI rising 3.4% YoY, exceeding the 2.9% expectation, and 0.7% MoM, above the 0.3% forecast[4] - Major central banks, including the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan, maintained interest rates this month, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising inflation concerns[4] - The market's previous expectations for rate cuts have reversed, indicating a significant risk of returning to a tightening cycle globally[4] Asset Performance - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel, while equities, precious metals, and industrial metals have declined due to rising inflation fears and discussions of interest rate hikes[4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant supply concerns, marking oil as the standout asset amidst a broader market downturn[4] - Precious metals like gold and silver have faced downward pressure, with gold prices dropping below $4,500 per ounce as inflation concerns mount[4] Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2% MoM in February, slightly above the 0.1% expectation, while capacity utilization remained steady at 76.3%[4] - February's existing home sales in the U.S. rose by 1.8% MoM, surpassing the 0.6% forecast, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market[4] - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling to 205,000, but continuing claims remain elevated, reflecting a stagnant employment situation[4] Risks and Outlook - Risks include a potential U.S. economic slowdown, unexpected oil price increases, and a slower-than-expected pace of Fed rate cuts, which could impact global liquidity and asset pricing[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Among the top 50 AA urban investment bonds (subject rating) with the highest discount margins, "25 Qiancheng 01" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price declines, "21 Fuzhou 01" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 individual bonds with the largest net price increases, "H3 Vanke 01" has the largest deviation in valuation price. Among the top 50 secondary perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases, "25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04B(BC)" has the largest deviation in valuation price [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Top 50 AA Urban Investment Bonds with the Highest Discount Margins - The table lists information such as the remaining term, valuation price, valuation net price, valuation yield, etc. of 50 AA urban investment bonds. "25 Qiancheng 01" has a remaining term of 4.75 years, a valuation price deviation of -0.23%, a valuation net price of 100.93 yuan, and a valuation yield of 4.12% [5]. 3.2 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Declines - The table shows the details of 50 individual bonds with large net price declines. "21 Fuzhou 01" has a remaining term of 0.00 years, a valuation price deviation of -12.39%, a valuation net price of 70.09 yuan, and a valuation yield of 1.81% [8]. 3.3 Top 50 Individual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - The table presents information on 50 individual bonds with large net price increases. "H3 Vanke 01" has a remaining term of 0.35 years, a valuation price deviation of 1.25%, a valuation net price of 54.46 yuan, and a valuation yield of 237.21% [10]. 3.4 Top 50 Secondary Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - The table provides details of 50 secondary perpetual bonds with large net price increases. "25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 04B(BC)" has a remaining term of 9.68 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.22%, a valuation net price of 99.55 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.45% [13].

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit bond yields mostly declined, with short to medium-term bonds performing relatively well amid market volatility and cautious sentiment[1] - The geopolitical situation and inflation expectations continue to impact market dynamics, leading to a mixed performance in credit spreads[1] Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Fund Redemption Impact - The scale of "Fixed Income +" funds grew rapidly, increasing from CNY 693.5 billion at the end of 2024 to CNY 1.581 trillion by the end of 2025[2] - The bond allocation in mixed secondary bond funds reached 82.08%, with 37% in financial bonds, 35% in public bonds, and 15% in government financial bonds[2] Group 3: Redemption Effects and Future Outlook - Recent net redemptions from "Fixed Income +" funds have intensified, but the credit bond market remains stable with minimal impact from these redemptions[2] - Seasonal demand for asset management products in Q2 may mitigate the negative effects of redemptions, with April and July typically seeing increased credit bond allocations[2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - For bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, the expected yield range is 1.61%-1.94%, with credit spreads between 14-35 basis points[3] - Bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly those rated AAA and AA+, show yields around 1.88%-2.02% and credit spreads of 22-32 basis points, indicating potential investment opportunities[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. Overnight funds prices slightly increased, while 7 - day funds prices declined. Short - end interest rates dropped due to loose funds and regulatory expectations, while the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds weakened. CD yields generally declined, and there was a net CD recovery. Government bond supply increased this week, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamentals - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. Reverse repurchase had a net injection of 658 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of - 1000 billion yuan. Overnight funds prices slightly increased (R001 rose to 1.40% from 1.39%, DR001 remained basically unchanged at 1.32%), and 7 - day funds prices declined (R007 fell to 1.48% from 1.50%, DR007 fell to 1.42% from 1.46%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 2.09bp, and the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer and discount rate was 1.17% [1] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market was 8.37 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.57 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.26% (previous value: 106.98%) [3] 2. Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - CD yields generally declined. The 3M yield dropped 3.5bp to 1.47%, the 6M yield dropped 4.0bp to 1.47%, and the 1Y yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.52%. The spread between 1 - year CDs and R007 widened 0.89bp to 3.81bp [2] - There was a net CD recovery this week. The net CD financing was - 403.1 billion yuan (previous value: - 161.9 billion yuan). The weighted - average issuance term was 8.0M (previous value: 8.3M), with 3M CDs issued 86.99 billion yuan, 6M CDs issued 202.57 billion yuan, and 1Y CDs issued 263.36 billion yuan [3] 3. Institutional Behavior - The inter - bank leverage ratio rose. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market was 8.37 trillion yuan (previous value: 8.57 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.26% (previous value: 106.98%) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, the equity market declined significantly, with small and micro - cap stocks experiencing large drops. Although the equal - weighted and weighted declines of convertible bonds were smaller than those of their underlying stocks, their anti - decline performance compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This is because the valuation of convertible bonds continued to compress significantly, mainly in the balanced and bond - biased areas. There were many individual bonds in the balanced area experiencing a "double - kill" of parity and valuation, and the valuation of new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions in the bond - biased area also compressed significantly. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market has basically returned to the level at the end of last year, and the valuation has dropped to a short - term neutral range. If there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of convertible bond valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average (corresponding to a par premium rate of around 28%), and investors can seize the rebound opportunity. Structurally, considering the uncertainty of the equity market trend, there are still potential risk points such as near - maturity, downward revisions, and high valuations in the bond - biased and stock - biased areas. Recently, medium - term balanced convertible bonds with a large decline in valuation have relatively more advantages in both offense and defense [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Different from the previous pattern where convertible bonds actively compressed valuation while the underlying stocks were relatively stable, this week, due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the equity market declined significantly, and small and micro - cap stocks had large drops. The anti - decline performance of convertible bonds compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent, mainly because the valuation compression was concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas. The convertible bond market valuation has returned to the end - of - last - year level, and if there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average. Medium - term balanced convertible bonds are relatively more advantageous [4][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The escalating US - Iran conflict led to a continued increase in crude oil prices, a significant cooling of domestic risk appetite, and a large - scale compression of convertible bond valuation. The par premium rate dropped 1.7% to 30.1%, breaking through the key point. The valuation compression was mainly concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas, and the valuation of new bonds that had not entered the conversion period compressed by more than 5%. The compression range shifted from high - parity to medium - and low - parity intervals. In the 70 - 130 yuan parity interval, the valuation compression was about 2% - 3%, and the compression in the extremely low - parity area below 70 yuan was relatively large. In terms of individual bonds, in the high - parity interval above 140 yuan, some individual bonds such as Yitian, Dazhong, and Huachen had strong valuation performance, with an increase of more than 10%. In the 100 - 140 yuan parity interval, there were many "double - kill" individual bonds. In the bond - biased area below 100 yuan, new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions had the largest valuation compression. As of now, the valuation of convertible bonds in the 80 - 100 yuan parity interval and in the 1 - 2 - year and 4 - 5 - year term intervals is still slightly higher than the end - of - last - year level [6][8][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 2 convertible bonds including Yuanxin and Huicheng announced redemptions, and 6 announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 25%. Currently, there are 30 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements and have not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted bonds is 9.9 billion yuan [6][27]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Ruike proposed a downward revision, and 4 convertible bonds including Qiaoyin, Lanfan, and Baolai announced downward - revision results. Only Baolai did not revise to the bottom, and the others all revised to the bottom. As of now, 81 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition but has not issued an announcement, 22 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [6][35]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Tiannai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 1 convertible bond has issued a conditional put - option announcement, 11 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 10 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 1 proposed a downward revision [6][38]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.4 billion yuan; there are 12 convertible bonds in the listing - committee approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.9 billion yuan [40].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of self-discipline in interbank deposits, the steepening of the yield curve, and the absence of a turning point in monetary policy, suggesting that adjustments in the long end are manageable. This creates opportunities to capitalize on the certainty of the short end and to speculate on the narrowing of term spreads [6][11][12]. Weekly Core Views and Bond Market Strategy - The main trading logic for the week revolves around three key themes: escalating geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices, strong economic data from January and February reinforcing recovery expectations, and the ongoing impact of self-discipline in interbank demand supporting short-end performance [11][12]. - The self-discipline in interbank deposits is expected to lead to lower issuance rates for interbank certificates of deposit, as banks anticipate a decline in funding costs. This trend is further supported by a decrease in the yield on demand deposits, enhancing the demand for liquid alternative assets like interbank certificates [11][12]. - Geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, creating temporary disturbances in the bond market. However, the report suggests that the actual impact of external inflation on domestic fundamentals and monetary policy remains limited, with the central bank likely to maintain a moderately accommodative stance [12][13]. - Economic data from January and February shows structural recovery, particularly in infrastructure investment, which supports investment stability. However, consumer recovery remains weak, and the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, indicating that domestic demand is insufficient [12][13]. Future Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a steep yield curve, with support for the short end and manageable risks for the long end. It recommends extending duration to speculate on opportunities for curve flattening. The strategy includes continuing to allocate to 1-year AA- certificates of deposit to capture short-end certainty [13]. - In terms of credit strategy, it is advised to continue investing in 3-5 year perpetual bonds, with a tilt towards 5-year products as the 3-year options approach their profit-taking points. High-yield real estate bonds are also recommended for defensive positioning against market volatility [13]. - The overall bond market is characterized by differentiation, with the short to medium end performing strongly while the long end experiences adjustments. The report notes a slight decline in funding rates during the week [13][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focus this week includes strengthened regulation of pig production capacity and the central bank's potential increased efforts to maintain the financial market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Weekly Observation 3.1.1 This Week's Policy Highlights - Strengthened regulation of pig production capacity and the central bank may increase efforts to maintain the financial market [1][9]. 3.1.2 Specific Policy Review - **Trade Policy**: On March 16, 2026, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France, and agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism. China opposes the US's imposition of unilateral tariffs and urges the US to completely cancel such restrictions. The two sides aim to promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations [4][10]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting, emphasizing the firm maintenance of the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools to maintain liquidity, and study the establishment of a liquidity support mechanism for non - bank financial institutions in specific scenarios [4][10]. - **Agricultural Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium for pig - breeding enterprises. Due to factors such as the decline in post - festival consumer demand, pig prices have entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline. The state has started the purchase and storage of central frozen pork reserves and will continue to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity [4][10]. - **Macro - economic Policy**: Li Qiang chaired the 11th plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the implementation of strategic deployments for economic and social development in 2026 and the "15th Five - Year Plan," including promoting the construction of a unified national market, developing new - generation intelligent manufacturing, and investing more in people and serving people's livelihoods [12]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance released the report on the implementation of China's fiscal policy in 2025, including supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, implementing a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, and improving the management of special bonds [12]. - **Industrial Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized the application for national - level landmark major application scenario projects, and the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption. The National Development and Reform Commission also plans to accelerate the formulation of an action plan for the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [12]. - **Financial Work**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a meeting to deploy key tasks for 2026, focusing on anti - corruption in key areas and strengthening the supervision of public power. Five departments, including the Ministry of Justice, solicited public opinions on the "Law of the People's Republic of China on Finance (Draft)" [14]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Nanjing issued policies to stabilize the real estate market, including supporting "help - selling" services, providing loan interest subsidies for "selling old and buying new" homebuyers, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [14].

Global Asset Performance - Gold prices fell significantly by 10.5% this week due to hawkish signals from major central banks[3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 8.2% this week, with a cumulative rise of 49.1% this month[3] - The U.S. stock market indices all closed lower, with the S&P 500 down by 1.9% and the Dow Jones down by 2.1%[3] Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, with expectations for rate cuts pushed to October 2027[4] - The European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged but raised inflation forecasts due to geopolitical tensions, indicating rising stagflation risks[4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to potential rate hikes if inflation meets expectations, with a 60% probability of a rate increase in April[4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - New single-family home sales in January decreased by 17.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3%[21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6 percentage points to 3.4% in February, marking the highest level since March 2025[21] - Concerns over inflation are reignited due to rising oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts[21] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index dropped to -8.5 in March, indicating a pessimistic outlook due to rising energy prices[39] - Japan recorded a trade surplus of 573 billion yen in February, with exports growing by 4.2% year-on-year[41] - The geopolitical situation has led to a 17% decrease in Qatar's LNG production capacity, significantly impacting European gas prices[25]