Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights positive signals from two major economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in China's economy during its transformation [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from flat to rising month-on-month, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, further validating the steady recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 2 - Demand is a key driver of the economy, with the CPI reflecting consumer-related price changes. The core CPI's continuous increase over five months indicates a healthy growth in total demand [3][5] - The PPI's performance is closely tied to the strength of demand, with improvements in market competition and price stabilization in certain industries, indicating a recovery in supply-side activity [4][5] - The overall economic growth in China is supported by coordinated efforts across consumption recovery, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade, suggesting a more robust foundation for future growth [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[1] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of acceleration[1] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The PPI showed no change month-on-month, indicating a halt in the downward trend for two consecutive months[2] - Prices in coal processing rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while black metal smelting and rolling industries saw a 0.2% increase[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals in price trends are attributed to central government measures since "9·24" aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting confidence[3] - Despite positive signals, there remains significant downward pressure on prices, particularly as investment and consumption data show signs of decline in the second half of the year[3] - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments and effective policy resource utilization is emphasized to maintain growth momentum[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The current steel production is at a high level, inventory is accumulating, and supply - demand pressure is increasing. Sino - US trade friction uncertainty may disrupt market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand sides are in a state of long - short entanglement. Although the demand side is still at a relatively high position, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply side is mainly in normal production, and the demand side is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The supply side maintains production, and the demand side is supported by procurement needs, but downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with the black - goods sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The market sentiment is unstable, and the demand - side boost is limited. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 38,700 lots. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises increased by 7.5% month - on - month, and the steel inventory increased by 8.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 782 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton or 2.8% from the previous trading day. Global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased by 0.23 tons, and port inventories increased by 90.4 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Some coking enterprises made appropriate rigid - demand purchases, and online auction prices rose slightly. New orders for coal mines were still poor [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1654.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The port spot price fell. Coking enterprises maintained production, and some low - inventory steel enterprises were replenishing stocks, but downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The main contract price of silicomanganese was 5738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The mainstream steel tender in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last month [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44%. The mainstream steel tender quantity in October decreased by 195 tons. The production enterprise's start - up rate was relatively high, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3800 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, a month - on - month increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coils was - 7.0, a month - on - month increase of 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar was 149.0, a month - on - month increase of 12.0; the basis of the 01 contract of iron ore was 45.9, a month - on - month increase of 4.9 [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3210.0, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 780, a month - on - month decrease of 16 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar's disk profit was - 99.6, a month - on - month increase of 9.1; the coil - rebar spread was 190.0, a month - on - month increase of 9.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the inter - variety contract spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron - ore ratio, coking - coal ratio, and double - silicon difference [41][42][43][45]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black - Goods Research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Director of Resource - Product Research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of resource - product research [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - **News**: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are under slight pressure due to the US tariff increase but are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further [7][8]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is advisable to lightly build long positions on dips [9][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels. The market is affected by Sino - US tariffs, with increased supply and decreased demand [13][15]. - For ferroalloys, their valuations are not high. Short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [15][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Important Information**: China's export control is not a ban, and in September 2025, 1523 projects started nationwide with a total investment of about 1305.545 billion yuan [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak last Friday night. Some steel mills cut production last week, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday. Steel prices are under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak demand. Short - term prices may be affected by tariff news but are expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading; recommend going long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures on dips; suggest waiting and seeing for options [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Important Information**: Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, and the average profit per ton of coke was 9 yuan. There are different prices for coke and coking coal warehouse receipts [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market may not react strongly to the proposed US tariff increase. In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water production. Supply is policy - supported. Short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market but the impact is limited [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Lightly build long positions on dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships from October 14. The added - value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises increased by 7.6% in the first eight months of 2025, and the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded in September [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs increase market uncertainty. Global iron - ore shipments increased in the third quarter, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in China. Ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels [13][15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hedge at high spot prices for single - side trading; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage; use circuit - breaker put - option strategies [15]. Ferroalloys - **Important Information**: There are different prices for manganese ore on October 10, and a factory in Inner Mongolia may add new production capacity at the end of October [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and demand is slightly down. For silicomanganese, both supply and demand are decreasing, and the cost - side manganese - ore inventory is at a low level. Both have reasonable valuations, and short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce short positions on macro - impact dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Iron Ore Daily Report dated October 13, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Black Research and Development [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price is 804.5, up 9.5 from yesterday; DCE05 is 781.0, up 6.5; DCE09 is 759.0, up 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 spread is 23.5, up 3.0; I05 - I09 is 22.0, up 0.5; I09 - I01 is -45.5, down 3.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - Various iron ore spot prices have increased slightly, e.g., PB powder (60.8%) is 782, up 5 from yesterday [2] - The optimal deliverable is Mac powder with a standard - grade equivalent price of 845 [2] - Spot price spreads such as Carajás - PB powder is 135, up 1; Newman - Jimbara is 24, unchanged [2] Group 4: Import Profit and Price Index - Import profits for most iron ore varieties have decreased, e.g., Carajás powder's import profit is 0, down 13 from yesterday [2] - The Platts Iron Ore 62% price is 107.4, up 1.6; 65% is 121.3, up 1.8; 58% is 95.9, up 1.3 [2][4] Group 5: Price Difference and Spread Data - SGX主力 - DCE01 is 9.0, up 1.0; SGX主力 - DCE05 is 11.6, up 1.1; SGX主力 - DCE09 is 14.3, up 1.2 [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, sentiment and the market are temporarily stable. Near - term industrial directional drivers are unclear, and the focus is on the release intensity of demand and marginal changes in supply - demand [3]. - For iron ore, the fundamentals have no contradictions for now. The short - term supply is not significantly affected, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the market risk preference is good, and the short - term adjustment needs to be verified by post - holiday industrial data. In the medium - to - long term, the policy impact on the supply side is expected to be positive [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they mainly fluctuate following the sector in the short term, and there are still concerns in the medium term [3]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3159 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, HC2605 at 3293 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3096 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, HC2601 at 3286 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 63 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. - Spreads, ratios, and profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 190 yuan/ton on October 9, and the rebar's on - paper profit was - 93.08 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase, etc. [1]. - The basis, such as the HC主力 basis was 74 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Seasonally, post - holiday first - phase industrial data is usually poor but will recover. Near - term industrial drivers are unclear, and future focus is on demand release and supply - demand changes [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The holiday increase was due to a rumor. Supply data is stable in the short term, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market has mixed performance, and the futures market rebounded. The short - term adjustment needs verification, and the medium - to - long - term policy impact on supply is positive [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: They mainly follow the sector in the short term. There are supply - demand and inventory issues, and there are concerns in the medium term [3]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - For steel, suggest to wait and see on the single - side, and can participate in the reverse spread or wait in the basis dimension [3]. - For iron ore, suggest to wait and see [3]. - For coking coal and coke, suggest to wait and see on the single - side [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, suggest to short on rallies [3].

Core Insights - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 15 products experiencing price increases, 31 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices remained stable at 3184.1 yuan per ton, while wire rod increased by 13.7 yuan (0.4%) to 3331.3 yuan per ton. However, ordinary medium plates and hot-rolled ordinary plates saw declines of 5.2 yuan (-0.1%) and 16.4 yuan (-0.5%), respectively [4]. - For non-ferrous metals, electrolytic copper rose by 659.3 yuan (0.8%) to 81,210.0 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots fell by 174.3 yuan (-0.8%) to 20,720.0 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed significant declines, with sulfuric acid dropping by 40.4 yuan (-5.9%) to 644.6 yuan per ton and caustic soda decreasing by 25.7 yuan (-2.9%) to 867.5 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices decreased by 23.2 yuan (-0.6%) to 3840.6 yuan per ton, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 23.0 yuan (-0.5%) to 4484.7 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a mixed trend, with anthracite coal increasing by 47.9 yuan (5.5%) to 917.0 yuan per ton, while coking coal decreased by 14.3 yuan (-1.1%) to 1346.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - In agricultural products, the price of rice fell by 19.3 yuan (-0.5%) to 4001.7 yuan per ton, while wheat increased by 9.2 yuan (0.4%) to 2422.2 yuan per ton [5]. - The price of corn decreased by 4.0 yuan (-0.2%) to 2300.0 yuan per ton, and cotton prices dropped by 280.2 yuan (-1.9%) to 14,374.1 yuan per ton [5]. - In forestry products, natural rubber prices fell by 239.3 yuan (-1.6%) to 14,633.3 yuan per ton, while corrugated paper saw an increase of 31.3 yuan (1.1%) to 2812.0 yuan per ton [5].