一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3169 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平，持仓增加 12.2 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2990 元 | | | | /吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3240 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.98 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本 | | | | 周全国建材产量回落 8.3 万吨至 355.71 万吨，社库回落 23.5 万吨至 573.21 万吨，厂库回落 22.38 万吨至 | | | | 309.53 万吨，建材表需回升 11.93 万吨至 401.59 万吨。建材产量继续回落，库存降幅扩大，表需回升，数 | | | | 据表现偏强。近期部分地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存持续下降， | | | | 部分地区螺纹出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求 | | | | 将面临 2 个月左右的下 ...

3 December 2025 | 1:03PM GMT Commodities Research METAL VIEWS Copper Our Favourite Industrial Metal as Supply Lowers Prices of Aluminium/Lithium/Iron Ore Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 15 products experiencing price increases, 30 seeing declines, and 5 remaining stable in late November 2025 compared to mid-November 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) price is 3168.4 CNY per ton, up by 29.4 CNY (0.9%) [5] - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) price is 3322.2 CNY per ton, up by 39.6 CNY [5] - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) price is 3387.4 CNY per ton, down by 6.3 CNY (-0.2%) [5] - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) price is 3294.9 CNY per ton, up by 5.9 CNY (0.2%) [5] - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) price is 4068.8 CNY per ton, unchanged [5] - Angle steel (5) price is 3431.4 CNY per ton, up by 8.1 CNY (0.2%) [5] Group 2: Price Changes in Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) price is 86638.3 CNY per ton, up by 2.0 CNY [6] - Aluminum ingot (A00) price is 21413.3 CNY per ton, down by 246.7 CNY (-1.1%) [6] - Lead ingot (1) price is 16979.2 CNY per ton, down by 295.8 CNY (-1.7%) [6] - Zinc ingot (0) price is 22398.3 CNY per ton, down by 85.5 CNY (-0.4%) [6] Group 3: Price Changes in Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) price is 939.5 CNY per ton, up by 72.6 CNY [6] - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) price is 825.1 CNY per ton, down by 20.9 CNY (-2.5%) [6] - Methanol (first grade) price is 2059.5 CNY per ton, up by 21.0 CNY (1.0%) [6] - Pure benzene (industrial grade) price is 5313.6 CNY per ton, down by 26.0 CNY [6] - Styrene (first grade) price is 6531.0 CNY per ton, up by 100.8 CNY (1.6%) [6] Group 4: Price Changes in Energy Products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) price is 4213.7 CNY per ton, down by 54.4 CNY (-1.3%) [7] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price is 4347.0 CNY per ton, up by 13.2 CNY (0.3%) [7] - Gasoline (95 National VI) price is 8022.7 CNY per ton, down by 27.9 CNY (-0.3%) [7] - Diesel (0 National VI) price is 6883.8 CNY per ton, down by 26.2 CNY (-0.4%) [7] Group 5: Price Changes in Agricultural Products - Rice (Japonica) price is 3914.8 CNY per ton, up by 1.5 CNY [8] - Wheat (National Standard Grade 3) price is 2498.3 CNY per ton, up by 10.0 CNY (0.4%) [8] - Corn (Yellow Corn Grade 2) price is 2195.4 CNY per ton, up by 27.3 CNY (1.3%) [8] - Cotton (White Cotton Grade 3) price is 14570.2 CNY per ton, up by 121.4 CNY (0.8%) [8] Group 6: Monitoring Methodology - The monitoring covers over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and dealers across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [12] - Price monitoring methods include on-site price collection, phone inquiries, and electronic communications [13] - The price changes are categorized based on the percentage change [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Hot Rolled Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and policies, with a generally weak domestic demand and a high but declining export. The market shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with strong supply and weakening demand. The market is expected to oscillate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by downstream demand, carbon element supply, and inventory. Coke prices are likely to continue the rebound, while coking coal prices may be dragged down [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by supply, demand, and raw material factors. Their prices are oscillating, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The market oscillated today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled steel demand declined, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production declined, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. Steel mills continued to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level [2] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices were relatively strong in the off - season. With positive policy expectations, the market will continue to oscillate and strengthen, but the rhythm may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, and domestic arrival volume was high. Port inventory continued to accumulate and was approaching the annual high [3] - **Demand**: Steel's apparent demand was low, in the off - season and with poor profitability. Iron - water was in a production - cut trend, and iron - ore demand had room to further weaken [3] - **Market Outlook**: The macro atmosphere was warm, and there were expectations for policy benefits. The market was expected to oscillate [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, with a slight rebound due to expectations of downstream replenishment [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream demand had some resilience, but steel mills had a strong desire to lower raw - material prices [4] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to continue the rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, rebounding due to expectations of downstream replenishment [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking - coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average with mostly falling prices, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory increased slightly [6] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be dragged down by high Mongolian coal imports in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day. Manganese - ore spot prices increased due to the futures rebound [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production decreased seasonally, weekly silicon - manganese production decreased slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly [7] - **Market Outlook**: Supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day [8] - **Supply and Demand**: There were expectations for coal supply guarantee, leading to expectations of lower electricity costs and semi - coke prices. Iron - water production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium production increased. Overall demand had some resilience. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Market Outlook**: Observe the bottom - support strength [8]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3133 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 1 元/吨，跌幅为 0.03%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.82 万吨。近期部分 | | | | 地区工程赶工，螺纹需求仍维持一定韧性，在产量下降的情况下螺纹库存已连续七周下降，库存总量矛盾 | | | | 得到明显缓解，部分地区出现规格短缺的现象，对价格走势形成一定支撑。而年末市场对稳地产政策预期 | | | | 也有所升温，对市场情绪有一定提振。不过当前市场已处于消费淡季，后期需求将面临 2 个月左右的下降 | | | | 周期，需求对价格的驱动依然不足。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2601 价格冲高回落，收 ...

| Extern FAMILIE FOR | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/12/02 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | JM2605 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, with a reading of 48.2, falling short of market expectations and remaining in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. This has implications for the US economy and various financial and commodity markets [12][16][20]. - The expectation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest - rate hike has increased, affecting market risk appetite, causing stocks and commodities to retreat after an initial rise, and keeping the short - term gold price within a volatile range [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, steel prices are oscillating stronger, copper prices are expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner, and PTA is in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, worse than expected and in contraction for nine consecutive months. The BOJ governor's hawkish remarks boosted the expectation of a December rate hike, causing stocks and commodities to fall back. Short - term gold prices are still in a volatile range [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price trends are volatile, with increased fluctuations. Be aware of correction risks [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is closely monitoring the commercial real estate exposure of community and regional banks. The US factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in four months, with the manufacturing index dropping to 48.2 [15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to continue to decline in the short term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The BOJ governor signaled a clear interest - rate hike, leading to a rise in Japanese government bond yields and a squeeze on the profit margin of yen carry trades. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted, indicating weak manufacturing performance [19][20]. - Investment advice: The market will experience increased short - term volatility, but maintain a generally bullish outlook [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The approval of public - offering fund products has started a counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. A - shares had a good start in December, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.31% [22][23]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The bond market had a weak rebound, but there is no basis for continuous strengthening [25][26]. - Investment advice: There may be short - term repairs, but the market remains bearish [27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In November 2025, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.0175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.24%. The soybean meal inventory reached 1.2032 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The future weather and South American production expectations are important variables [28][29]. - Investment advice: Cost support and supply - demand constraints coexist. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile. Continue to monitor China's actual purchases of US soybeans, state reserve trends, and South American weather [29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in November increased by 4.78% year - on - year, indicating that the domestic construction machinery market is in a recovery phase. Tangshan had illegal steel projects, and steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly in an oscillating manner, but the upside space is limited [30][31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and remain volatile [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 19.68% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. Heavy rain affected the palm oil harvest, and the market expects November to continue to accumulate inventory [34][35]. - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to remain in the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan, waiting for data guidance [36]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the central - southern market remained stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the recovery is slow. The demand is weakening, with iron - water production continuing to decline [37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market will be mainly volatile [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on December 1, 2025, were 30 yuan/ton, - 43 yuan/ton, 97 yuan/ton, and - 6 yuan/ton respectively. The demand for corn starch has recovered, and the supply pressure is expected to remain low [38]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy for the rice - flour price difference [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 1, the domestic corn average price was 2,292 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is falling back. The 01 contract is not suitable for short - selling, and attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 03 contract [40][41]. - Investment advice: Do not short the 01 contract. Consider short - selling the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company signed an iron - ore purchase contract with Trafigura. The iron - ore price remains high and volatile, with the inventory expected to increase by 10 million tons to 160 million tons in December [42]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile, with limited upside potential [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - South Africa's coal exports in October were 7.2052 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.18%. After the replenishment, the steam - coal price has fallen back, and it is expected to remain high and volatile in December - January [43]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high and volatile and decline seasonally from December to January [43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and trading limit for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract. The polysilicon supply - demand contradiction has worsened, and the battery - sheet price has continued to fall [44][45][46]. - Investment advice: The futures price may fall significantly, but the spot price is expected to remain flat. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A company plans to build 28 33MVA submerged - arc furnaces. The industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [47][49]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to be volatile between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Look for range - trading opportunities [49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Minmetals Resources' Izok Corridor project exploration made progress, and a copper smelter in Kamoa - Kakula was ignited. The macro - level support may weaken, but the domestic inventory reduction boosts bullish sentiment [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to continue to rise in an oscillating manner. Recommend buying on dips. Pay attention to the widening of the C - L spread [52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A 60,000 - ton power - battery recycling project in Yichang was launched. The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week, and the demand in the off - season may weaken. The inventory reduction rate is expected to slow down in December [53][54]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rallies in the short term and buying on dips after the off - season risks are released [54]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the social lead inventory reached a one - month low. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented. The lead price is expected to rise, and consider buying on dips [55][56][57]. - Investment advice: Consider buying lead on dips in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and cross - border trades [57]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory increased. A zinc - lead mine in Bejaia is planned to start production. The zinc price is expected to be bullish, but there are risks of low market attention and macro - level fluctuations [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for cross - border trades [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel project's production is normal in December. The refined nickel supply is expected to be in surplus, but the market is undervalued. Consider buying on dips [61][62]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips with a light position. Evaluate the impact of Indonesian resource contraction in the medium term [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin showed a premium. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. The overseas supply may be affected by geopolitical risks, and the downstream demand is weak [63]. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing the market [63]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and the cost is supported by geopolitical factors. Pay attention to the winter - storage policy [64][65]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term [66]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound - fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased to 37.06%. The urea futures price rebounded, and the inventory decreased. The demand is the key factor for the future price [66][67]. - Investment advice: The reduction of urea inventory strengthens the support for the futures price. Pay attention to the macro - level driving force after December [68]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure - benzene inventory in East China increased. The styrene and pure - benzene prices are oscillating. The demand is weak, but there are expectations of supply reduction. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans. Consider buying far - month contracts on dips if there is a panic sell - off in December [72]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the market negotiation was light. The supply decreased due to plant maintenance, and the demand remained stable. The year - end supply - demand is in a tight - balance state [73]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - term strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to the crude - oil price risk. Consider long positions in the PTA 5 - 9 spread and PTA - oil spread [74]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda price in Shandong decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The downstream alumina market has a negative impact on caustic - soda demand [75][76]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to whether profit compression will lead to supply reduction [76]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export prices increased. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [77][78]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short term. The price follows the polyester raw - material price [78]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash factory inventory decreased slightly. The Far Xing Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the supply. The demand from the float - glass industry has decreased [79][80]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [80]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei increased slightly. The futures price decreased, and the inventory is still high. The short - term rebound space is limited [81]. - Investment advice: Be cautious and wait - and - see. Adopt a bearish view in the medium term and consider shorting on rallies [81]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The acquisition of a Spanish terminal by Hutchison Ports is blocked. The container freight rate is expected to be volatile, and there is a lack of strong bullish factors [82][83]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and markets, with most commodities expected to show an oscillatory trend, and some showing a tendency of oscillating strongly or weakly. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy environments, and geopolitical events [3]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: In a market with shrinking volume, potential lifting of the ban on share sales and reduction pressure, and a policy window period, funds are congested and waiting to be released. A dumbbell - shaped strategy of looking at the long - term and trading in the short - term is recommended, with an oscillatory trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducts treasury bond trading, and subsequent aggregate monetary policy tools may be further implemented. In the fourth quarter, the allocation demand of institutional investors may increase seasonally, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly. Currently, opportunities for curve steepening and positive spreads are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Attention should be paid to the release of US PMI and ADP employment data this week. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60], showing an oscillatory trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints persist, and supply - disturbing factors are increasing, so the copper price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are stable, so the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the marginal increase in supply is limited, and demand has certain resilience, so the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: The current supply - demand is in excess, but the valuation is in a low - level range, so it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Zinc**: Recently, the inventory of LME zinc has increased significantly, but the "short squeeze" has not eased significantly. Entering the off - season of consumption, downstream demand for zinc ingots is weakening, and supply remains high. However, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The zinc price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Tin**: With the current tightness in the ore end, the bottom support for the tin price is strong, so it is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Lead**: Currently at the end of the traditional peak consumption season, but the replacement of old cars and electric bicycles is still ongoing. The orders for lead - acid batteries have improved, and the procurement demand for lead - zinc is expected to remain high. Recently, many primary and secondary lead smelters have carried out maintenance, and lead ingot production has declined. The lead price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand is loose, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on the official announcement of next year's nickel ore quota in Indonesia, which may decrease, so there is uncertainty in supply, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Due to the suppression of the price by the fundamentals during the seasonal off - season transition, but considering the long - term suppression of industry profits and the support from the ore end, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost changes [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with medium - term looseness and short - term shortages coexisting. The price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price, but the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial policy signals at the end of the year and the process of new warrant registration [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: If the silicone industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will further weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase again. However, the short - term market sentiment is volatile. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warrant registration [3]. - **Cobalt**: The conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, and although it has not affected cobalt mining for the time being, the potential risks are expected to increase, so the cobalt price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, the current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state in China will continue. The downstream has strong expectations of replenishing inventory, and the spot price has bottom support. The near - month contract price is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the price mainly follows the cost of coking coal. In the case of the continued weakening of raw material spot prices, the current round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but there are still expectations of winter inventory replenishment. The continuous implementation of multiple rounds of price cuts is less likely, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There is still a seasonal decline expectation for molten iron output, the rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the inventory replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price increase, there is insufficient support for further upward movement. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand side still has resilience, and inventory continues to decline, but the pressure of high - year - on - year inventory remains, and the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved. The Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and the macro - environment is still warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Rebar**: The fundamentals of rebar have continued to improve recently. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, there are still expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and the Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the macro - environment is warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the inventory level of rebar is still high year - on - year, and as the off - season deepens, the demand expectation is still under pressure, and the fundamental highlights are limited. The upward space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The firm cost supports the bottom of the silicon ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price increase is weak. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The main - contract futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of raw material prices and settlement electricity prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicate**: The cost of manganese silicate still has support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure on the price is large. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices [3]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the improvement in demand is obvious, and the fundamentals have improved, but the improvement is limited. Only when subsequent cold - repair is further implemented can the glass price continue to recover. Otherwise, the price may decline under the pressure of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, due to the increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the supply side will face clearance and cost increase, and the far - month valuation may rebound [3]. - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have improved to some extent. If the production remains low after the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be a short - term positive feedback, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, there will still be low - cost production capacity coming on - stream, and the supply - demand surplus will intensify. The price needs to continue to decline to suppress production [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The European natural gas price is oscillating, and the US natural gas price may be strong in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side policies and the change in inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - and long - term reasonable price range of 570 - 770 still has great reference value [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. Currently, the basis is continuously low, the pressure on refining margins is increasing, and the upward space of the spot price is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the generation of warrants [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene in December is still being realized, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3]. - **PX**: In the short - term, it is greatly affected by sentiment and cost. The price is expected to operate in the range of [6650, 6950], and the PXN is expected to oscillate in the range of [250, 290] US dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: It is greatly affected by cost and market sentiment. In the short - term, it will oscillate following the cost, and the price will be sorted in the range of [4650, 4850]. The processing margin of the 01 contract can be operated in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the low - level range in the short - term, and the upward elasticity of the price is obviously pressured. The EG01 - 05 spread can be cautiously reverse - arbitraged at high levels, and the operation space is [-75, -100] [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw material, and the processing margin will fluctuate between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly established [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing margin has strong support at the short - term range bottom, but the upward pressure is also large. It is expected to operate in the range of [400, 550], and the absolute price of bottle chips will fluctuate with the raw material [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas fluctuation information is confirmed, the futures price quickly rebounded to fulfill the expectation. After the rebound this week, the upward momentum of the methanol futures price has weakened. Attention should be paid to whether the digestion trend of coastal inventory can continue, and it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upward space is limited, and they should be regarded as range - bound. The change in maintenance is still the key point of observation [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price in December has decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has decreased by 80 yuan per ton, opening the downward space of the futures price. If the low - profit situation promotes upstream production cuts or the warrant logic before delivery intensifies, the futures price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract is facing position - taking games in the short - term and shows a small - scale rebound. In the long - term, if there are no positive factors such as upstream production cuts due to low profits, increased exports, or unexpected policies, the futures price may return to a weak trend [3]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. After the inspection of the December reserve progress, the short - term reserve push may return to the normal progress, and this demand support is relatively stable in the long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture Feed and Livestock - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. The import crushing margin has been repaired, and soybean procurement has accelerated. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream customers are placing orders at low - level futures prices, with increased spot trading volume and a rising basis. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the contract roll [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Before the effective repair of downstream and mid - stream inventories, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of downstream supply tension [3]. - **Pig**: In the near - term, the pig price will continue to be weak, as the fourth - quarter pig production is still in the period of high - capacity realization, and the end - of - year pressure to sell large pigs is increasing. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture is guiding enterprises to cut production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The far - month contract price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. Soft Commodities - **Apple**: Against the background of strong support for the spot price, combined with the expectations of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm, and the sentiment is optimistic. Attention can be paid to the low - long opportunity after a pull - back, and subsequent attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas. The price is expected to oscillate strongly for the time being [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trending market, and the current price is closer to the upper pressure level. In terms of arbitrage, the RU - MR spread reached a phased high last week, and one can choose to exit and wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in a range; in the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to go long at a low price [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market is mainly about the game of warrants, and the paper pulp futures price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Since the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. The operation strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to oscillate [3].

黑色金属 | 月报 2025 11 28 2022 11 13 证监许可【2011】1772 号 黑色金属研究员 郑 航 从业资格号： F03101899 咨询资格号： 钢材方面，供需现实较弱，远期驱动转弱较确定。钢材整体消费 处于近 5 年同期低位水平，仍主要受建材弱需求拖累，北方降温且项 目资金不足导致施工放缓拖累建材消费，钢板材需求增长但不足以对 冲建材需求减量。粗钢库存处于高位运行，螺卷库存水平较前期明显 上升，钢材市场潜在抛压增大，不仅导致钢价上行驱动不足，且下行 风险仍存，建议卖出虚值看涨期权，远月期货以偏空操作思路为主。 关注关键变量：铁矿进口增量、港口库存变化；煤矿政策性限产 情况、矿山库存变化；钢厂减产力度；财政政策发力情况。 Z0021211 联系电话： 020-88523420 11 月以来，铁矿因收基差导致期货价格偏强，带动下游钢价上 涨，煤焦则因库存压力增大而整体承压运行，12 月炉料供给压力易继 续增大，且终端钢材库存压力逐渐显现，建议在未来 1 个月的整体操 作策略上以谨慎观望或者防守为主： 核心观点 铁矿方面，近期现货标准仓单基差较去年同期高近 40 元/吨，或 因部分持货商挺 ...