Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain strong, with the iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon markets likely to follow the trend of steel in the short term, and all are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and market sentiment [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures continued to strengthen. Thread apparent demand decreased month - on - month, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand remained resilient, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased [2] - Pig iron production increased and remained at a high level. Under the low - inventory pattern, the negative feedback pressure in the off - season was not significant. In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while exports remained relatively high [2] - Multiple departments called for "anti - involution", and the Yajiang project improved demand expectations. Market sentiment was optimistic, and industrial products at low levels all rose. The futures market is expected to remain strong [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound, and the basis narrowed at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month this period, stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions increased significantly, while shipments from Australia decreased [3] - China's port arrivals declined from a high level this period, and there was no obvious pressure on port inventory accumulation in the short term. On the demand side, steel mills had no motivation to cut production in the short term, and pig iron production rebounded more than expected last week [3] - At the macro level, the "anti - involution" and the upcoming important meeting boosted market sentiment, and the Yajiang project strengthened market expectations for future major projects. It is expected that iron ore will be strong in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices rose significantly during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production slightly increased after continuous decline. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness increased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and downstream pig iron production remains at a high level in the off - season. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The output of coking coal mines slightly decreased, the spot auction market improved, transaction prices continued to rise, and terminal inventory increased [6] - Total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to destock in the short term. The "anti - involution" currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium and is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices opened higher and then slightly adjusted. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level decreased, the weekly production recovery rate was slow, and both futures and spot demand improved. It is judged that inventory will mainly continue to decline [7] - In the long - term, manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on prices. In the short - term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines' willingness to support prices has increased. Spot manganese ore prices have risen following the futures market. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively small increase [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices opened higher. Pig iron production increased to over 242. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, market trading volume was average, and on - balance inventory decreased fluctuantly. Affected by the "anti - involution", market expectations for demand - side policies have increased. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of thread, with a relatively weak increase [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Strong - side oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Limited upside space [1] - Ferrosilicon: Some support [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with slightly accumulated inventory but still at a low level, and there are insufficient market contradictions and drivers. The iron ore market has a strong - side support from high - level hot metal production, despite a small increase in port inventory. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and environmental protection, and are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are driven by market sentiment, but the fundamentals have limited driving force for price increases [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rose, and the spot price also increased slightly with rising trading volume. The production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand dropped significantly. It is expected to move in a narrow range in the short term [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price continued to rise, and the port spot price was strong. Supply decreased slightly last week, and demand increased with the rise in hot metal production. It is expected to continue the strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price rose, and the spot price in the Mongolian coal market was strong. Domestic coal mines are resuming production, and Indonesia plans to levy an export tax. Demand is weak, but it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price rose, and the spot price at ports remained stable. The first price increase of coke enterprises was implemented, and some regions had production restrictions. Demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Steel tenders are ongoing, and the supply is increasing while demand is slightly decreasing. The price has some support but limited upside space [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price strengthened, and the spot price was basically stable. Market sentiment improved, supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The price has some support, but the upside space is not large [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety's contracts also changed, for example, the basis of rebar 10 - contract decreased by 7 yuan [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The profit of rebar on the futures market decreased by 5.9, and there were also changes in other profit indicators and spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and coke - coal ratio [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: The document provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main contract basis**: It shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc., with different time - series bases presented [19][20]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts for different contracts of various varieties, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [27]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: It includes spread trend charts for different varieties, such as the coil - rebar spread and rebar - iron ore ratio [41]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts for rebar, including the futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆★ [1] - Hot-rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is influenced by "anti-involution", with low-positioned industrial products remaining strong, but the actual implementation of policies is yet to be seen, and the rhythm may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2]. - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to fluctuate with steel products, and the risk of increased volatility should be noted [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by the "anti-involution" to a limited extent, and their prices mainly follow the trend of steel products [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices follow the trend of thread, with limited ability to rise and are expected to face pressure [7][8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. This week, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly accumulated. The demand for hot-rolled steel increased slightly, production continued to decline, and inventory slightly decreased. The molten iron production is slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. Attention should be paid to the demand absorption capacity during the off-season [2]. - In June, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain at a relatively high level [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures continued to rebound. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume is currently high but may decline in the future. Port inventory continues to decline slightly without significant pressure to accumulate [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak during the off-season, but steel mills are still profitable and have little incentive to cut production actively. Molten iron production can remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The uncertainty of overseas trade has decreased, and the market expects the introduction of domestic policies, with optimistic sentiment [3]. Coke - Today's coke futures declined. The first round of price increases in the coking industry has been fully implemented, but the increase is smaller than expected, and profits are meager. Coke production has been declining, and overall inventory has hardly changed. Traders' purchasing willingness has increased [4]. Coking Coal - Today's coking coal futures declined. Environmental inspections in Wuhai have tightened, affecting coal transportation. The production of coking coal mines continues to increase, and the spot auction market has improved, with transaction prices rising significantly and terminal inventory increasing [6]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased, and production-side inventory has decreased significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon manganese futures declined. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase, and on-book inventory has started to rise. In the long term, manganese ore inventory is increasing, and in the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices [7]. Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon futures declined. Molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. A large northern steel mill's July ferrosilicon tender inquiry price is 5400 yuan/ton, and the June price was 5500 yuan/ton. The July tender quantity is 2700 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous round. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact [8]. - The supply of ferrosilicon continues to decline, market transactions are average, on-book inventory continues to decrease, but production-side inventory has begun to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [8].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面继续小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 弱势整理 | | | 价格下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 0.26%，持仓减少 1.68 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安 | | | | 普方坯价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.74 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量增加 3.19 万吨至 419.2 万吨，社库增加 8.64 万吨至 538.64 万吨， | | | | 厂库增加 14.8 万吨至 330.93 万吨，建材表需下降 13.71 万吨至 395.76 万吨。建材产量小幅回升，库存累 | | | | 积幅度加大，表需继续回落，市场供需有所趋弱。1-6 月地产、基建、制造业投资数据均有所走弱，对市 | | | | 场情绪形成一定影响。预计短期螺纹盘面或将弱势整理运行。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in domestic demand, necessitating further policy support to stimulate growth [3][14]. Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from Q1, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [4][14]. - Industrial output in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, driven by exports, while domestic demand showed significant decline [5][14]. - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from May, influenced by earlier online promotions and regulatory policies [5][34]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with construction investment particularly affected [6][8]. - Manufacturing investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 7.5%, down from 8.5% in the first five months, primarily due to fundamental economic pressures rather than policy factors [7][8]. - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 8.9% in the first half of 2025, with traditional infrastructure projects lagging behind [8][9]. Real Estate Market - New housing sales in June saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in value, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate market [9][30]. - The investment in real estate development also faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in June [31][32]. Financial Data - Financial indicators showed improvement, with M1 and M2 money supply growth accelerating, reflecting a more favorable liquidity environment [10][25]. - New social financing in June reached 4.2 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in credit demand [25][26]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with a notable decline in discretionary spending categories, while essential goods maintained steady growth [34][35]. - The government is expected to implement more robust policies to stimulate consumer demand, particularly in the context of ongoing economic challenges [36][37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel exports remain at a high level, boosting domestic market sentiment. The weight of macro trading in the steel futures market is greater than that of industrial supply and demand. As prices rise, spot prices show signs of weakness in following up, and the basis narrows significantly. Short-term steel futures may enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - Under the boost of macro news, iron ore prices have continued to rise. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed much compared to the previous period. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the production of coking coal has recovered. The upstream inventory pressure has continued to decline, and some traders have increased their stockpiling. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have shown an oscillatory trend. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the fundamental driving force is limited [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The futures price of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. Steel exports remained at a high level, and the weight of macro trading in the futures market was greater than that of industrial supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term futures price will enter an oscillatory consolidation trend [1]. - **Iron ore**: The futures price of iron ore rose. The spot price of port iron ore also increased. The supply of iron ore decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports decreased, and the number of ships at ports increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue the high-level oscillation trend in the near future [1]. - **Coking coal**: The futures price of coking coal rose. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong. Coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the upstream inventory pressure has decreased. The demand for terminal steel products remains weak, but the risk preference in the market has improved under the "anti-involution" expectation. Shanxi steel mills have received a verbal notice of crude steel production restrictions, which will boost the black variety market to a certain extent [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke rose. The spot price of port coke was stable. The production of raw coal and coking coal has increased, and the supply of upstream coal mines has continued to recover. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coking coal has decreased during the Nadam Fair, and traders have accelerated their stockpiling before the closure, pushing up the auction premium and transaction rate. The spot price of coking coal has been firm recently, and the production losses of coking enterprises have increased, and their operating pressure has increased. After the previous stockpiling, the procurement rhythm of coking coal has slowed down, and some speculative funds have continued to stockpile [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price of manganese silicon fluctuated widely. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been determined, and other steel tenders are in progress. The supply of manganese silicon has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory of manganese silicon remains high. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate, and the upward space is limited [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The spot price increased slightly. The mainstream steel tender price has been announced. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both at a low level in recent years. The inventory of ferrosilicon has gradually increased. The cost of ferrosilicon production has remained relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will oscillate [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have changed to different degrees, including the spreads between 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties has also changed, including the basis of 10 and 01 contracts [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties in different regions have different changes, including the prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have also changed, including the disk profit of rebar, the long - process profit, the short - process profit, and the spreads between different varieties [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The chart shows the closing prices of the main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The chart shows the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different contracts of various varieties over time, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The chart shows the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: The chart shows the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][50]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to have a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil plates will have wide - range oscillations due to the undiminished sector sentiment [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are slightly boosted by the settlement of steel tender prices [2][10]. - Coke will oscillate with an upward trend [2][13]. - Coking coal will oscillate with an upward trend affected by news disturbances [2][14]. - Steam coal will stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][18]. - Logs will have wide - range oscillations due to the change of the main contract [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Categories Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore (12509) closed at 766.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.33%). The import and domestic ore prices generally increased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil Plate - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of HC2510 closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year. China's steel exports in June were 967.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.0 million tons from the previous month. The weekly data on July 10 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of hot - rolled coil plate is 0 [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts increased. The spot prices and various spreads also showed different changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the tender prices for silicon iron and silicon manganese in July and increased the procurement volume [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: The port prices of coking coal and the CCI metallurgical coal index were reported. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in DCE were provided [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day. The opening, high, low, and closing prices and trading volume and open interest were reported [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: The prices of imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas were provided. The long - position and short - position changes of the top 20 members in ZCE were reported [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts (2509, 2511, 2601) showed different trends. The spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].