1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with most metals falling over 1%, led by Shanghai tin which dropped 5.98% [1] - Shanghai lead fell 2.33%, Shanghai zinc dropped 1.91%, and Shanghai nickel decreased by 1.42% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore fell 2.58% and rebar dropped 1.04% [1] - External markets showed mixed results, with London tin rising 1.87% and London nickel increasing by 0.76% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose 1.88%, reaching a new high of $4698 per ounce, while COMEX silver surged 5.58% to a peak of $94.365 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold increased by 1.54%, with Shanghai gold hitting a record of 1050.4 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum fell 0.48%, while palladium rose 0.64% [1] Industrial Commodities - Lithium carbonate dropped 3.83%, while industrial silicon rose 1.61% and polysilicon increased by 0.63% [1] - Alumina and casting aluminum saw slight declines of 1.19% and 0.11% respectively [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, with rapid capital expansion in technology and renewable energy sectors, while traditional sectors and small to medium enterprises face challenges. This has led to a divergence in prices between non-ferrous metals and traditional energy [1][2] - The overall environment for a comprehensive rise in industrial product prices in 2026 is not favorable, with continued price differentiation between non-ferrous metals and black energy products due to geopolitical risks and low capacity utilization [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Demand**: Total global demand remains stable without significant turning points. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and other economic measures, the elasticity of demand is limited, and long-term interest rates remain high, indicating weak real growth [2][4] - **Price Performance**: The poor price performance in 2025 was primarily due to low capacity utilization rates across major economies, which are still 3-4 percentage points below 2012 peaks. This suggests that even with strong demand, supply can be increased by improving capacity utilization, preventing widespread inflation [5] - **Market Divergence**: The current market shows a pronounced K-shaped divergence, with emerging sectors like chips and renewable energy seeing rapid capital expansion, while traditional sectors struggle. Non-ferrous metals are at historical highs, while traditional energy and black metals are at relative lows [6][7] - **Impact of Energy Transition**: The energy transition has led to significant changes in the global commodity market, with traditional energy markets potentially shifting from scarcity to surplus. The decline in energy prices has resulted in substantial capital outflows, some of which have flowed into precious metals like gold [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Future Trends**: The K-shaped divergence is expected to continue into 2026, with strong demand for non-ferrous metals driven by technology, while black metals face low capacity utilization. The potential for oil to become a surplus commodity could further influence market dynamics [11] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: Gold has performed well due to multiple factors, including central bank purchases, retail demand, and geopolitical risks. However, the market size has expanded significantly, making further large price increases more challenging [12][14] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Rising geopolitical risks have profound implications for global financial markets, increasing demand for safe-haven assets and benefiting defense and high-end equipment sectors [15][16] - **Long-term Liquidity Pressure**: In 2026, long-term liquidity pressure, particularly related to the Japanese yen, may lead to increased volatility in financial markets as interest rates rise and market conditions change [17]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

Report Summary Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough. The macro - environment is generally favorable, but the fundamentals show a pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products, with steel mill profits continuing to compress. The upward drive depends on cost - push factors, while the downward drive comes from the accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore prices are returning downward, but there is still macro - support. Overseas supply is at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak. Demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking, and there is a risk of upward drive deviating from the fundamentals [77][79]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the rhythm is more important than the trend. The supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand is still accumulating [127]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. The alloy prices are oscillating, and the cost and demand sides have different impacts on silicon iron and manganese silicon [214][216]. - **Steam Coal**: The short - term market is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather. The supply is stable currently but may shrink before the Spring Festival, demand may be boosted by cold air, and inventory at northern ports is high [291][292]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly View - **Logic**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic macro - environment is generally favorable, with the central economic work conference re - emphasizing "anti - involution" and the improvement and stabilization of the real estate market expectation [8][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. Steel mill profits continue to compress. Technically, black chain indexes and related contracts face previous high pressure [8]. - **Upward Drive**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost - push factors, such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction and sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end [8]. - **Downward Drive**: The accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 and the release of high - inventory liquidity in iron ore may lead to a decline [8]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly View - **Supply**: Overseas overall shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak both year - on - year and month - on - month. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China are falling [78][79]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased month - on - month but is still relatively high year - on - year. Pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may support iron ore demand [79]. - **Macro - level**: The central bank's decision to cut re - loan and re - discount rates has rekindled market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing some support for short - term domestic risk asset valuations [79]. - **Contract Performance**: The main 05 contract price has weakened oscillatingly, with an increase in positions and a decrease in trading volume [83]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of medium - grade goods are relatively firm, with small declines [85]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke View - **Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has returned to normal, with smooth shipments. Import volume has increased, and the inventory in the regulatory area is being depleted [125]. - **Demand**: Coke has started the first round of price increases. The iron ore demand is supported by the raw material rigid demand, and iron ore is expected to rise again after the end of maintenance [128]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has begun to transfer downstream [128]. - **View Summary**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [127]. 4. Ferroalloys Weekly View - **Price Movement**: The alloy prices are oscillating, and the disk center of gravity has moved down further. The cost side may support the disk to maintain an oscillating pattern [216]. - **Macro**: The central bank has clarified its key work in 2026, and there is no significant overseas news [216]. - **Micro**: The iron ore output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials is weakly supported [216]. - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron, the cost has decreased, and the explicit inventory has decreased. For manganese silicon, the cost is supported, but the supply expansion plan in the north and the accumulation of inventory suppress the price [216]. 5. Steam Coal - **Supply**: Currently, coal mines are producing normally, and supply is stable. However, supply may shrink before the Spring Festival. In 2025, the national coal production and import had certain changes, and the coal production increment may narrow in 2026 [291]. - **Demand**: The cold air will strengthen in the next 10 days, which may boost daily consumption. Currently, the power plant's daily consumption has declined, and the market is only making sporadic purchases [291]. - **Inventory**: The sentiment at northern ports is weak, and the port inventory has increased due to wind - induced navigation closures. It may decline slightly later [292]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term coal price may be oscillatingly weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather [292]. - **Outlook**: The impact of nuclear - reducing production capacity is unclear, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and terminal restocking [292].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend, but poor operability on the disk [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel and hot-rolled coil [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market has minor supply-demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke market is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues and the impact of relevant policies [4] - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory increase and policy expectations [6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as inventory structure and cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost changes [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies and cost factors. The demand has certain resilience, and attention should be paid to relevant impacts and cost support [8] Summary by Directory Steel - Today's disk rose first and then fell. The apparent demand for thread steel increased this week, with a slight decline in production and a slower inventory accumulation rhythm. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, with a slight increase in production and a continued decline in inventory, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits have marginally recovered. Due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and pig iron production has declined [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the market sentiment is cautious, and the disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market trend [2] Iron Ore - Today's disk showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally compared with the previous period, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved compared with the previous period. This week, pig iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3] - Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level. The expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating. The fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventories have slightly increased [4] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [4] - The coke disk has a premium. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in the total inventory of coking coal and the relatively high customs clearance data of Mongolian coal, the price is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the disk price, the transaction price has increased [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the winter storage actions in the market [6] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [6] - The coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in inventory and customs clearance data, the price is likely to be weak and volatile in the short term [6] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of manganese ore for furnace charging. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - The spot transaction price of manganese ore has increased last week. The pig iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [8] - The pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has certain resilience [8] - The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [8]

Group 1 - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum was held on January 15, focusing on wealth logic in the AI era and the future of capital markets [1] - Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, presented a keynote speech indicating that the stock market will continue to perform well, but a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds is unlikely [2] - The stock market's trading volume is expected to remain high, but further significant increases may be challenging; the relative performance of the ChiNext board compared to the CSI 300 is becoming more difficult [2] Group 2 - The core issue in China's economic cycle is stabilizing expectations to encourage residents to stop excessive saving, which is essential for improving economic circulation [7] - The 2026 year is seen as a critical year for awakening the allocation value of the Chinese capital market, with external demand and policy support playing significant roles [5] - The forecast for GDP growth in 2026 is between 4.8% and 5.0%, with consumption growth expected to be around 4.5% to 5.0% due to the recovery of essential consumption [21][22] Group 3 - The investment growth rate is projected to rebound to 1.1% in 2026 from -3.1% in 2025, driven by central government-led investments [22] - The export sector is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 5%, benefiting from external demand and trade dynamics [25] - The consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to turn positive in 2026, with a forecast of approximately 0.8% year-on-year growth [31]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - As of January 16, 2026, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.73%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.17%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.98%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.44%. Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.65%, the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%, the Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.85%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.38%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Rapeseed Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.66%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -10.43% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2728.81, down 20.05 points or -0.73% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return rate (ARR) of 10.16%, an annualized volatility of 12.00%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 [3]. - **Sector Indices**: The Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) fell 0.46%, the Industrial Products Index (NHII) fell 3.14%, the Metal Index (NHMI) fell 1.78%, the Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) fell 1.25%, the Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) fell 2.98%, the Black Index (NHFI) fell 0.44%, and the Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) rose 0.17% [3]. - **Theme Indices**: The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) fell 0.38%, the Energy Index (NHEI) fell 1.85%, the Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) rose 0.65%, the Building Materials Index (NHBMI) rose 0.09%, etc. [3]. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index's Rise and Fall - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (13.35%), while negative contributors included Palm Oil, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Mini Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Glass (7.88%), and negative contributors included Rebar, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (2.09%), and negative contributors included Iron Ore, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Zinc (0.62%), and negative contributors included Stainless Steel, etc. [3]. Single - Variety Index Daily Rise and Fall - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Some varieties like Glass rose 1.57%, while others like Methanol fell 21.86% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Rapeseed Oil rose 2.66%, while Rapeseed Sugar fell 1.23% [6]. - **Black Sector**: Some varieties' information is presented, such as Rebar's relevant data in the contribution part [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Although the previous commodity market sentiment was good, it is sensitive to marginal news. Be vigilant against market rumors and strengthen information verification. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and it is in a policy window period. Focus on the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - For iron ore, overseas shipments are entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease marginally, iron water has limited resumption of production, and inventory structural problems remain unsolved. With a warm commodity market atmosphere, prices are supported. It is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The future market is mainly affected by the direction of the black sector and cost - pushing and supply - contraction factors. Pay attention to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10] - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high - volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is difficult to change significantly, facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [19] - For polysilicon, after the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [22] - For glass, with the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions [25] - For soda ash, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3160 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2404 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 6339 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3307 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 21259 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 530 lots. The Shanghai summary price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Lecong summary price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, but inventory de - stocking is slow; the apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, production is at a medium level, and inventory is basically flat. The black - series is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and pay attention to hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97% (- 8.00), and positions decreased by 10286 lots to 65.24 million lots. The weighted positions were 99.83 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 820 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments are declining, with a large decline in Brazilian shipments. Near - end arrivals are increasing. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output has declined, and the steel mill profitability rate has risen to nearly 40%. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill import ore inventory is increasing but still at a low level. Prices are expected to be supported and oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.84% at 5870 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.41% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 240 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is affected by the black sector direction, manganese ore cost - pushing, and supply - contraction factors [9][10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 15, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.75% at 1187.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main - coking coal price increased, and the Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal price decreased. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.37% at 1745 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port and Lvliang coke prices remained unchanged [12] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but beware of short - term high - volatility risks. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and downstream inventory is low with a certain tendency to replenish. Prices are likely to oscillate in the current range [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (- 25). The weighted contract positions decreased by 3024 lots to 365402 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged. Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 48670 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 275). The weighted contract positions decreased by 1367 lots to 86469 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [18][20] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: Supply - side improvement is insufficient, demand is weak, and it is facing inventory accumulation pressure. Prices are expected to be under pressure. Polysilicon: After the release of negative sentiment, prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][22] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.91% (- 10). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory decreased by 250.50 million cases (- 4.51%). Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1193 yuan/ton, down 2.37% (- 29). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 19 yuan. The weekly inventory increased by 0.23 million tons [24][26] Strategy Views - Glass: With the decline in daily melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, prices are boosted, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Observe the digestion of high inventory and actual spot transactions. Soda ash: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The overall pattern is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [6][8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [9][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and specific operations should refer to the corresponding price ranges [12][13][15]. - For black and building materials, steel prices are affected by inventory and demand, and the prices of related products such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in a range [35][37][44]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be considered for short - selling if it breaks below a certain level, and crude oil is recommended for short - term waiting and seeing [58][63][64]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may support the near - month contract, while the egg price may have different strategies for near - month and far - month contracts [88][90][92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. In December, the M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in March, and the central bank lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - **期指基差比例**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **策略观点**: The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading is to prevent short - term market overheating. In the long run, the policy supports the capital market. In the short term, pay attention to the market rhythm and buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Thursday, the closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts are provided. The central bank announced the social financing scale and money supply data for 2025 and the adjustment of structural monetary policy tool interest rates [5][6]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net investment of 1694 billion yuan [7]. - **策略观点**: The December financial data shows a stable total social financing scale. The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the capital situation is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices and changes of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, and the US dollar index are provided. Trump announced not to impose tariffs on key metals, and the inflation data has an impact on the market [9]. - **策略观点**: The current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The geopolitical situation and commodity prices affect the copper price. The London copper price fell, and the Shanghai copper price rebounded after a decline. The inventory and basis information are also provided [12]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper supply is in a tight situation, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The decline in crude oil and precious metals prices led to a fall in the aluminum price. The inventory and basis information are provided [14]. - **策略观点**: The sentiment is neutral to positive. The domestic inventory has a cumulative pressure, but the overseas low - inventory and strong spot support the aluminum price, which is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain zinc brands [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory, basis, and other information are provided, and the LME announced restrictions on certain lead brands [19]. - **策略观点**: The lead industry situation is complex, and the lead price may follow the sector for a supplementary increase due to strong macro - sentiment [20]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price was strong. The spot price, cost, and other information are provided [22]. - **策略观点**: The nickel has a large excess pressure, but the macro - factors support the price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price continued to rise. The supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **策略观点**: Although the tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The lithium carbonate price index and contract price changes are provided. The inventory decreased, and the export tax - rebate policy adjusted [25]. - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [26]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina index fell. The basis, overseas price, and inventory information are provided [28]. - **策略观点**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on rallies [29]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless - steel price rose. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory information are provided [30]. - **策略观点**: The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell. The inventory and trading volume information are provided [32]. - **策略观点**: The cost supports the price, but the demand is average. The price is expected to move sideways in the short term [33]. Black and Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed. The inventory and demand information are provided [35]. - **策略观点**: The steel production has increased slightly, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still high. Pay attention to the de - stocking progress and policy changes [36]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [37][38]. - **策略观点**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume is declining. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The coking coal price fell, and the coke price rose. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [40][41]. - **策略观点**: The coking coal price was driven by the market atmosphere and policy expectations. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks [42][44]. Glass and Soda Ash - **玻璃行情资讯**: The glass price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [46]. - **玻璃策略观点**: The glass daily melting volume has decreased, and the cost supports the price. However, the terminal demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **纯碱行情资讯**: The soda - ash price fell. The inventory and trading information are provided [47]. - **纯碱策略观点**: The soda - ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [47]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price, basis, and technical analysis information are provided [48]. - **策略观点**: The commodity market sentiment may continue, but be cautious of market sentiment shocks. The future market trends are affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **工业硅行情资讯**: The industrial silicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [51]. - **工业硅策略观点**: The industrial silicon supply and demand are difficult to change significantly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [52][54]. - **多晶硅行情资讯**: The polysilicon price fell. The inventory and basis information are provided [55]. - **多晶硅策略观点**: The polysilicon price was affected by market sentiment and policy. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [56]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate, inventory, and spot price information are provided [58][59][61]. - **策略观点**: The rubber seasonality is weak. Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider short - selling if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [62]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The crude oil price fell, and the prices of related refined products changed. The US EIA weekly data shows the inventory changes [63]. - **策略观点**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a range - trading strategy [64]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [65]. - **策略观点**: The methanol valuation is low, and the future pattern is expected to improve. It is feasible to buy on dips [66]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [67][68]. - **策略观点**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [69]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices, basis, and supply - demand information of pure benzene and styrene are provided [70]. - **策略观点**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter [71]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory information are provided [72]. - **策略观点**: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [73]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [76]. - **策略观点**: The ethylene glycol supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation may be compressed in the medium term. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term [77]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [78]. - **策略观点**: The PTA supply is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline. It is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [79]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and cost information are provided [80]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price in the medium term [81][82]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price fell. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [83]. - **策略观点**: The PE price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price rose. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis information are provided [85]. - **策略观点**: The PP supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026. The price may bottom out when the oversupply pattern changes [86]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The live pig prices in different regions changed. The northern farms are waiting for price increases, and the southern market may reduce prices to increase sales [88]. - **策略观点**: The low price and festival effect stimulate consumption. The short - term spot price may support the near - month contract. In the medium term, pay attention to the pressure on the near - contract and wait for rallies to short. In the long term, wait for price drops to go long [90]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg prices in different regions were stable or rising. The supply and demand are relatively normal, and some people are still bullish [91]. - **策略观点**: The late Spring Festival drives the near - month contract to be strong. However, the supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract. For the far - month contract, be cautious of over - valued pressure [92]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The protein meal futures prices were weakly volatile. The USDA data shows the global soybean production and consumption situation. The domestic soybean inventory and oil - mill operating rate are provided [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall situation is better than in 2024/25. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [95]. Oils - **行情资讯**: The oil futures prices fell. The USDA and other data show the production, consumption, and inventory situation of different oils [96][97][98]. - **策略观点**: The current fundamental situation of palm oil is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [99]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar futures price was volatile. The UNICA and other data show the sugar production and export situation in Brazil [100][101]. - **策略观点**: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support level. The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. The short - term downward space of the domestic sugar price is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [102]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton futures price fell slightly. The USDA data shows the global cotton production and consumption situation. The domestic cotton inventory and spinning - mill operating rate are provided [103][104][105]. - **策略观点**: The January USDA report is neutral. The Zhengzhou cotton price is mainly affected by the domestic market. Wait for price corrections to go long [106].