Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the crude oil market are healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russian - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand slowdown in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits. Also, prepare for the September Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol currently has a high valuation and weakening supply - demand fundamentals, facing price pressure [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. The current price is not high, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position allocation on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price has rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended. Consider a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 [9]. - PVC has strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is advisable to wait and see, observing whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up [10]. - For benzene ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upwards [14]. - For polyethylene, the short - term price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [16]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [17]. - For PX, with high load maintenance and strong demand from new PTA installations, it is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to consider buying on dips following crude oil [20]. - For PTA, although there will be inventory build - up in August, due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, it is recommended to consider buying on dips following PX [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.90, or 1.38%, to $64.27; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.72, or 1.06%, to $66.96; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.90 yuan, or 0.57%, to 505.9 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels to 423.66 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; SPR increased by 0.24 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 227.08 million barrels, a 0.58% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 112.97 million barrels, a 0.50% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.24 million barrels to 19.80 million barrels, a 1.19% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.97 million barrels to 44.36 million barrels, a 2.24% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side enterprise profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventories are accelerating the build - up, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously falling [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 6, the 09 contract fell 22 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 30 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply slightly decreased but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to rise as plants resume operation. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer plants are starting autumn fertilizer production, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to production cuts, and the seasonal pattern usually shows an upward trend in the second half of the year, along with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Industry Conditions**: As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, up 0.46 million tons, or 0.4%; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.5 million tons, up 1.2%; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48.9 million tons, down 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao was 50.85 (+ 0.29) million tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 9 yuan to 5051 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4920 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 131 (+ 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 138 (- 3) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 76%, down 3.2%; the ethylene method was 79%, up 8.7%. The overall downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 million tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 million tons (+ 3.9). Enterprise comprehensive profits reached a high point for the year, with high valuation pressure, decreasing maintenance, and high production levels. Domestic downstream operating rates were at a low level, and Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [10]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and although the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, the start - up rate of benzene ethylene has continued to rise. Port inventories have been significantly reduced, and the overall operating rate of three S products in the demand side has fluctuated upwards [14]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. Traders' inventories are oscillating at a high level, and demand for agricultural films is at a low level. In August, there is a large production capacity release pressure, and the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose, with a strengthening basis [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally oscillating downward. In August, there is only 45 million tons of planned production capacity release. In the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [17]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 60 yuan to 6794 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 5 dollars to 844 dollars, with a basis of 153 yuan (- 14) and a 9 - 1 spread of 50 yuan (+ 22) [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The load of PX in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The load of downstream PTA has decreased in the short - term, but the inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal operating rates are about to end the off - season. New PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [19][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4724 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4680 yuan, with a basis of - 21 yuan (- 2) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 30 yuan (+ 10) [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load decreased by 7.1%. Some plants have reduced their loads or stopped production, and new plants have been put into operation. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Inventories have been increasing, and the processing fee has limited operating space. Due to low inventory levels and improving downstream prosperity, there is less negative feedback pressure [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 15 yuan to 4414 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 28 yuan to 4491 yuan, with a basis of 80 yuan (+ 1) and a 9 - 1 spread of - 21 (+ 6) [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load decreased by 0.7%, and some domestic and overseas plants have changed their operating status. The downstream load decreased by 0.6%, and terminal operating rates increased. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 0.5 million tons. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of coal increased. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is short - term downward pressure on valuation [22].

当地时间8月6日，美股市场在科技股的强劲表现带动下全面上扬。道琼斯指数涨0.18%，报44,193.12 点；标普500指数涨0.73%，报6,345.06点；纳斯达克综合指数更是涨1.21%，报21,169.42点。苹果公司 股价单日暴涨5.09%，成为推动市场上涨的重要力量。 苹果公司引领科技股上涨 苹果公司无疑是当日市场的焦点，收盘涨5.1%，单日市值飙升1538亿美元（约合人民币11047亿 元）。。其股价的大幅上涨主要得益于公司宣布将在美国增加1000亿美元的投资承诺，并在未来四年在 美国招聘20,000人。这一计划是苹果公司未来四年在美国投资6000亿美元的扩大计划的一部分。苹果公 司正与康宁、环球晶圆、应用材料公司、德州仪器、三星等供应商合作，通过新的"美国制造计划"加速 在美国的生产。其中，康宁将把哈罗兹堡工厂全部用于为苹果公司生产，肯塔基州员工数量将增加 50%。 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅▼ 年初至今 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 213.275 10.355 | 5.10% | -14.63% | | 亚马逊(AMAZO ...

Group 1: US Market and Economic Developments - US stock indices collectively rose, with Apple increasing over 5% and the Chinese concept index rising by 0.93% [2] - US crude oil futures fell by more than 1.2%, while New York natural gas rose over 2.2% [5] - Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips, with exemptions for domestic manufacturing in the US [5] - Trump also plans to impose an additional 25% tariff on imports from India [5] - Apple is set to invest an additional $100 billion in US domestic manufacturing, bringing total investments to $600 billion [5] Group 2: Company Announcements and Financial Performance - iQIYI is reportedly considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong [6] - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 17.518 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 46% [6] - Uni-President China (00220.HK) reported a net profit of 1.2867 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [6] - *ST Dongtong's actual controller and chairman received a notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Low oil prices may facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and there is a divergence between coal and crude oil. The supply of chemical products is increasing, and there will be a divergence between oil - based and coal - based chemical industries [2][3]. - Geopolitical expectations for crude oil are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. The high valuation of asphalt will eventually decline. High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. Methanol fluctuates with the rebound of the coal end. Urea's futures price rises firmly due to the better - than - expected Indian tender. Ethylene glycol rebounds first due to strong coal and weak oil. PX maintains a volatile state. PTA's cost has no strong support, and its basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. Short - fiber is relatively resistant to price drops. The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips is slightly repaired. PP fluctuates with the divergence of oil and coal support. Propylene fluctuates, and PL is short - term volatile and weak. Plastic fluctuates with a slight boost from the coal end. Pure benzene has a narrow - range fluctuation. Styrene fluctuates weakly with increasing inventory. PVC fluctuates mainly with strong expectations but weak reality. Caustic soda fluctuates weakly with increasing spot pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices closed down. Russia is considering an air cease - fire, and Trump continues to threaten India with tariffs. The geopolitical situation has both positive and negative developments. The API data shows that US crude oil and diesel inventories continued to rise last week, and the high - operating rate of refineries is expected to be limited in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot pressure increases, and the high valuation of asphalt finally declines. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is rising. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The conflicts in Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and the US - Iran relations are expected to ease in the medium - to - long term. China has increased the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of oversupply. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakness of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand space for high - sulfur substitution. It currently has a low valuation and fluctuates with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and its own supply - demand changes are limited, maintaining a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: The raw material price performance is poor, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply - demand situation of PX itself has few changes, and the direct demand has some support after the commissioning of new devices. - **Outlook**: Volatility [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: There is no strong cost support, and supply - demand is under pressure. The basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the support is insufficient. The supply side has both shutdown and restart situations, and the overall supply has no obvious contraction. The demand side has mediocre sales of polyester yarns, and suppliers' active sales have pushed down the basis. - **Outlook**: Volatility, focusing on the implementation of major plant overhauls at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The driving force is insufficient, and pure benzene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has declined, but there is still some support from the parade expectation. The crude oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated commissionings of pure benzene upstream and downstream devices, and the commissioning rhythm has a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: During the consumption peak season and with sanctions risks, crude oil is temporarily stable in the short term. In August, the supply of pure benzene increases, but there are new downstream commissionings, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the macro - sentiment was good, and there was some restocking in the styrene downstream. This week, the restocking sustainability is insufficient, and the support for styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply of styrene itself has recovered, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the new home appliance production schedule data is still average. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrivals have decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost - end pure benzene is stable or slightly stronger, but the driving force for styrene is also limited. Overall, the styrene price may fluctuate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: With strong coal and weak oil, ethylene glycol rebounds first. - **Main Logic**: The cost end has certain support with weak oil and strong coal. Ethylene glycol stabilizes first and rebounds following the coal - chemical industry after hitting the bottom. The overall supply - demand variables are few. The shutdown of a South China plant delays the inventory accumulation expectation. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost trend is differentiated, and the price is relatively resistant to drops. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost support is still poor. In the pattern of strong coal and weak oil, it is more resistant to drops than upstream PTA. The short - term processing fee support is relatively strong. The supply - demand pattern has few variables, and the sales performance is mediocre. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee shows a weak - stable trend, and there is a medium - to - long - term inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **View**: The production reduction scale continues, and the processing fee is slightly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The raw material support is insufficient, and the oil and coal trends are differentiated. With the production reduction on the supply side, the overall decline is less than that of the upstream cost, and the processing fee is repaired. - **Outlook**: The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips has support at the bottom, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The rebound of the coal end has some driving effects, and methanol fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the short - term coal end. The production enterprises sold at a discount, and the downstream purchased on demand. The olefin demand followed up normally, and other demands were relatively stable. The port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [22]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The Indian tender exceeds expectations, and exports may change. The futures price rises firmly. - **Main Logic**: The Indian tender information on August 4 exceeded expectations, which had a positive impact on the market sentiment for exports. The futures trading volume increased, and the price rose. However, the subsequent market still depends on the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. - **Outlook**: After the price increase, the market needs actual positive support. Without obvious changes in the fundamentals, attention should be paid to export - related policy information and possible further changes in the current Indian tender before August 8 [23]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The coal end has a slight boost, and LLDPE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly. The oil price is in short - term volatile decline, and the supply pressure from OPEC+ production increase makes the crude oil inventory not decline seasonally in the past two months. The macro - end is slightly warmer in the short term, and the coal end still has positive news. The LLDPE's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price decline and the short - term slight boost from the coal end make the LLDPE 09 contract fluctuate in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The support from oil and coal is still differentiated, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 4, the PP futures price rebounded slightly. The coal end has a short - term boost, and the oil price is in short - term volatile decline. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The overseas price is stable, and the export window is limited. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [26]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and PL is short - term volatile. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the PL futures price fluctuated. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer price continued to rise slightly. The downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term market follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end rebound has a boost today. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [27]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, PVC fluctuates mainly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise. The upstream production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the export has improved, and the cost is expected to move up. - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates with strong expectations but weak reality [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot pressure is gradually increasing, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the fundamental level, the demand from some areas has increased marginally, but the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda is increasing, and the upstream may switch to producing 32% caustic soda. - **Outlook**: The near - month warehouse receipt pressure is large, and there are negative factors such as the loosening of the spot price. The market has a large downward pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the upstream reduces production due to low profits, the downstream peak - season performance, and policy - related disturbances [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including their latest values and change values [31]. 3.2.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. 3.2.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report provides the inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., including their latest values and change values [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have shown a slight upward trend [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have dropped significantly recently [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA has declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption in power plants has remained stable recently [3] - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt has been rising continuously recently [3] Downstream - Real estate: Recent sales of commercial housing have declined [3] - Services: The box office revenue of summer movies has been rising continuously [3] Policy Overview Production Industry - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in increasing investment in basic research, with different levels of one - time financial subsidies for enterprises with different annual basic research investment amounts [1] - Hainan has released an action plan to build a modern industrial system, aiming to cultivate the commercial space industry chain and achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan in the aerospace industry cluster in Wenchang International Aerospace City by 2027 [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity and guide reasonable credit growth [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 8/5) | Industry | Current | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 82.26 | 77.04 | 56.21 | 49.35 | 0.30 | | Mining | 30.94 | 47.98 | 35.42 | 31.88 | 0.40 | | Chemical Industry | 65.92 | 62.95 | 47.54 | 45.37 | 43.20 | 0.30 | | Steel | 35.23 | 56.36 | 46.01 | 42.01 | 40.13 | 5.10 | | Non - Ferrous Metals | 37.37 | 58.80 | 48.05 | 43.33 | 41.11 | 4.40 | | Electronics | 49.90 | 78.23 | 53.17 | 42.82 | 44.06 | 0.70 | | Automobile | 54.05 | 51.85 | 37.90 | 34.43 | 32.96 | 1.10 | | Household Appliances | 35.59 | 21.45 | 46.36 | 42.79 | 41.10 | 5.80 | | Food and Beverage | 34.22 | 46.11 | 35.53 | 31.06 | 28.90 | 0.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 43.07 | 54.72 | 51.57 | 43.28 | 40.83 | 0.50 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 44.25 | 168.19 | 142.28 | 133.76 | 131.32 | 7.20 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 49.06 | 73.61 | 21.88 | 47.68 | 45.75 | 0.60 | | Public Utilities | 23.59 | 34.55 | 26.02 | 23.85 | 22.13 | 0.80 | | Transportation | 24.68 | 39.10 | 28.96 | 27.63 | 26.86 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 198.71 | 127.12 | 95.84 | 89.30 | 86.30 | 0.20 | | Commerce and Trade | 37.22 | 21.51 | 40.42 | 37.06 | 34.73 | 0.90 | | Leisure Services | 69.22 | 124.48 | 117.80 | 105.37 | 105.65 | 85.60 | | Banking | 22.29 | 19.16 | 16.05 | 16.05 | 14.40 | 1.20 | | Non - Banking Financial | 23.00 | 35.56 | 28.84 | 26.89 | 23.84 | 0.70 | | Comprehensive | 67.78 | 51.72 | 40.12 | 36.67 | 35.01 | 1.10 | | Building Materials | 31.30 | 47.42 | 35.15 | 28.51 | 26.59 | 0.50 | | Building Decoration | 34.80 | 56.69 | 50.46 | 46.97 | 45.62 | 8.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 51.00 | 80.45 | 73.91 | 69.86 | 68.68 | 26.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 25.71 | 47.87 | 43.24 | 40.49 | 38.30 | 11.50 | | Computer | 63.70 | 63.32 | 44.59 | 37.41 | 34.72 | 0.30 | | Media | 238.93 | 45.77 | 35.91 | 34.82 | 33.51 | 1.20 | | Communications | 26.26 | 28.04 | 30.43 | 27.71 | 25.42 | 2.50 | [42] Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 8/4) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 2328.6 | - 0.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 6.4 | - 5.59% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 8888.0 | - 1.20% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 15172.2 | - 2.48% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 20.3 | - 0.88% | | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 78418.3 | - 0.92% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 22148.0 | - 2.12% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 20493.3 | - 0.89% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 121600.0 | - 0.88% | | | Black Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 16737.5 | - 0.67% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3307.7 | - 1.32% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 786.2 | - 0.44% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3442.5 | - 1.57% | | | Non - Metals | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 8/4 | 15.4 | - 1.72% | | | | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 14433.3 | - 4.57% | | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 810.8 | - 0.24% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 67.3 | 3.33% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 69.7 | 1.80% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4158.0 | 0.24% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 776.0 | 1.04% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4808.8 | - 1.11% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 7453.3 | 0.00% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1812.5 | - 0.55% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1315.0 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 129.0 | - 0.82% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 115.9 | - 1.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 93.6 | - 0.73% | | [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing an overall weakening tendency. The main reason is the supply pressure caused by the planned production increase of major oil - producing countries [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Price and Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.28% to 510.2 yuan/barrel [5]. Core Logic - Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ began to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the actual production increase has far not reached the target. OPEC's monthly report shows that OPEC+ production increased by 349,000 barrels per day in June, and the production of the 8 countries in the agreement production - increase period increased by 394,000 barrels per day [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures**: The domestic economy is under downward pressure and has entered a policy observation period. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range. The stock market is expected to be volatile, and it's recommended to wait and see. The bond market is suitable for band - trading. The EC in the shipping market is expected to be volatile and decline [1][2][3][4][6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals are expected to stop falling and rise, and it's recommended to buy on dips. Copper is recommended to hold cash and wait. Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short term. Tin is expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to hedge inventory. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter a shock range. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have limited upward and downward space. Iron ore is expected to be strong. Coking coal and coke have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended not to be overly pessimistic [11][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][24][26][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space. LPG supply and demand remain loose. It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels. MEG and bottle chips are expected to fluctuate in a range. Methanol's short - term fundamentals are weak. PP is expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern. PE is expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery. Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to narrow the price difference. Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and falls. Urea's 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [32][34][35][38][39][40][42][43][44][45][46][47][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][60]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oilseeds, it's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts. Vegetable oils are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger. Corn and starch are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly [67][68][69][70][71][72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are affected by non - farm data and inflation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's guidance, and it's expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to be volatile due to the lack of a continuous leading sector and short - term positive factors [5][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline of treasury bond futures in the afternoon is affected by the A - share market and false news. It's recommended for band - trading [6][7]. - **Shipping (EC)**: Affected by US tariffs and spot quotes, the EC is expected to be volatile and decline [9][10]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose due to the recovery of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and they are expected to stop falling and rise [11]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are affected by the US dollar index, and it's recommended to hold cash and wait [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is under pressure and fluctuates, alumina is weak, and cast aluminum alloy is in a shock state [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to decline slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar index [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It's expected to be in a wide - range shock due to supply - side disturbances [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter a shock range, and it's recommended to pay attention to the callback buying opportunity for industrial silicon [19][20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They have limited upward and downward space due to unclear driving factors [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: It's expected to be strong due to good fundamentals and high demand [24][26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term [27][28]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are recommended not to be overly pessimistic as the market sentiment has cooled but the fundamentals are supported [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It's under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space due to weakening seasonal demand [32][34]. - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose [35][37]. - **PX - PTA**: It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels as the TA processing fee is at a historical low [38][39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate in a range as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out [40][42]. - **Methanol**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and it's necessary to pay attention to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [43][44]. - **PP**: It's expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern due to supply - demand imbalance [45][46]. - **PE**: It's expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery [47][49]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: It's recommended to narrow the price difference between them, and styrene is recommended to be shorted on rallies [50][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: It's weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [54]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It's affected by crude oil and falls, and it's recommended to be short - configured [55]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak due to the pressure on the spot market and the weakening of agricultural demand [56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [57][58][60]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: It's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts as the domestic far - month has a supply - demand gap [67][68][69]. - **Vegetable Oils**: They are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: They are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly due to weak demand [71][72]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: It's expected to be in a shock state after the price decline, and it's recommended to wait and see [61]. - **Log**: It's recommended for non - industrial customers to operate in a range and for industrial customers to hedge. The price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost [62][63][64]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is weak, and the cost is disturbed. The supply is loose, and the demand changes little [64][65][66].