Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with production and demand returning to expansion territory [8][9][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with most economic and social development indicators expected to be met, while some targets in innovation and green ecology still require effort [3][4] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to emphasize three key themes: transitional guidance, unwavering commitment to new productive forces, and adaptive economic strategies [2][4][5] Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The number of breeding sows slightly increased in May, while the price of pork is expected to show a downward trend year-on-year, with stable operations anticipated throughout the year [20][22] - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises, despite a decline in export volume in May [20][23] - The price of yellow chickens is correlated with pork prices, suggesting potential upward movement in the future due to low supply levels [24]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, matching expectations and up from 49.5 in May, indicating a marginal improvement[4] - The production index rose to 51.0, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling recovery in production activities[9] - New orders index increased to 50.2, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below the threshold[9] - The PMI for large enterprises is 51.2, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 48.6, up 1.1 percentage points[13] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for June is 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[19] - The construction activity index rose to 52.8, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by infrastructure investments[25] - The service sector index is at 50.1, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting seasonal adjustments in travel-related services[22] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The raw material purchase price index is at 48.4, and the factory price index is at 46.2, both showing a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[16] - New export orders index is at 47.7, up 0.2 percentage points, while the import index is at 47.8, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in external demand[9]

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5% 和50.7%，比5月份上升0.2个百分点、0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气 水平总体保持扩张。 与此同时，价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比5月上 升1.5个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 "从两个价格指数的变化趋势来看，近期制造业上游原料端和下游产品端的价格走势协同性较好。5月 份、6月份，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数同向变化，变化幅度相当。"文韬说。 分行业看，三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9% 和50.4%，均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关 行业产需两端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比5月份上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 文韬表示，下半年我国经济将重点推进"强内"和"稳外"工作。"强内"是继 ...

1—5月份，单位与居民物品物流总额同比增长6.4%，较1—4月份提高0.5个百分点。即时零售等消费新业态日趋成熟，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长6.3%。1—5月份，工业品物流总额同比增长5.6%，增速较1—4月回落0.1个百分点。5月份同比增长5.5%，增速环比回落0.1个百分点。1— 5月份，进口物流总额同比下降4.1%，降幅与1—4月基本持平。5月当月，进口物流总额同比下降3.8%，降幅较4月扩大2.7个百分点。（综合央 视网） 点击按钮▲立即报名 6月官方制造业PMI回升至49.7 6月30日，国家统计局公布数据显示，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2%，制造业景气水平继续改善。在调查的 21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造业景气面有所扩大。产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和 50.2%，比上月上升0.3%和0.4%。 6月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2%，非制造业总体继续保持扩张。服务业景气度基本稳定。服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月略降0.1%。建筑业扩张加快。建筑业商务活动指数为52.8% ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with all sub-indices improving except for employment and business activity expectations[1] - New orders index turned from contraction to expansion at 50.2%, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI[5] - The procurement volume index also shifted from contraction to expansion, showing the most significant improvement among all sub-indices, marking the highest level since 2015 for this period[5] Group 2: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for June is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, marking the weakest level of the year[1] - Business activity expectations index stands at 52%, down 0.5 percentage points, also the weakest year-to-date[1] - There is a disconnection between active procurement activities and the decline in employment and business expectations, indicating potential sustainability issues in procurement[13] Group 3: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8% in June, primarily supported by the improvement in the real estate sector rather than infrastructure[17] - The civil engineering activity index recorded 56.7%, indicating a high level of activity, but this is a decline from May, suggesting that the construction sector's recovery is not driven by infrastructure projects[17] - The real estate sector's new orders index remains below 50%, indicating that the sustainability of improvements in the construction sector needs further validation from sales and investment trends[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation is not meeting expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[23]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 49.5%[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.5%, an increase from the prior value of 50.3%[1] - The average composite PMI for Q2 is 50.4%, lower than Q1's average of 50.9% and last year's Q2 average of 51.1%[1] Group 2: Demand and Price Trends - New orders in manufacturing, construction, and services have rebounded by 0.4, 1.6, and 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating improved demand[2] - Manufacturing prices have rebounded by 1.5 percentage points, while construction and service prices increased by 0.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively, although all remain below the expansion threshold[2] Group 3: External Demand and Employment - Manufacturing new export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, still below the Q1 average of 48.0%[3] - Employment indices in manufacturing and services have decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating ongoing contraction in workforce[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The composite PMI of 50.7% in June is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Q1 average, suggesting a slower economic recovery[6] - The necessity for immediate policy stimulus is reduced, with potential policy actions expected to be postponed until August or September[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector generally continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.2% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - sized enterprises' was 48.6% (up 1.1 percentage points), and small enterprises' was 47.3% (down 2.0 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), new order index (50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points), and supplier delivery time index (50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point. The raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points) and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 52.8% (up 1.8 percentage points), and the service business activity index was 50.1% (down 0.1 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - boom range (above 55.0%), while retail, transportation, and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI Output Index - In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [4].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 49.6% but still below seasonal levels[1] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while new orders index increased from 49.8% to 50.2%[3] - New export orders index saw a minor increase from 47.5% to 47.7%, remaining below seasonal averages[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6] - Service sector index slightly declined to 50.1%, indicating mixed performance across industries[6] Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Both purchasing prices and factory prices showed signs of recovery, with raw material prices index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4%[7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies post July 9 may disrupt future export and production activities, necessitating stronger monetary and fiscal policies[2] Employment and Business Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in labor market stability[3] - Business activity expectations index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52%, reflecting cautious outlook among manufacturers[3]