2026年1月下旬，国际能源市场表面风平浪静，电子屏上的K线甚至没有太大波动，但真正让人后背发 凉的，是报价栏里那个突然跳出来的数字——45美元。 几天前，委内瑞拉原油的价格还停留在31美元，没有战乱、没有罢工、没有供给中断，却在一夜之间暴 涨了45%，这不是市场行为，而是人为按下了价格按钮。 在能源贸易一线干了多年的人，一眼就能看出问题，那天清晨，国内能源系统的交易员们几乎是同时看 到了这个报价。 确认不是系统错误后，电话迅速打到上级，得到的回复也异常简单，没有讨论、没有争辩，只有两个 字："停掉。" 这两个字，意味着一整条采购链条被当场掐断，也意味着一场关于定价权的硬碰硬正式开始，要理解这 次涨价的来龙去脉，时间必须往前推几天。 就在1月，美国财政部突然宣布，解除对部分涉及委内瑞拉石油交易活动的限制，消息一出，外界普遍 解读为"美国松口了""制裁要缓和了"。 委内瑞拉方面也迅速配合，代总统罗德里格斯在1月29日签署《石油法改革法案》，高调宣布引入私人 资本、欢迎外资、推进市场化改革，姿态放得极低。 更狠的，还不在价格上，而是在规则上——他们明确要求：交易必须现金结算，而且资金流向必须经过 美国监管账户。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the trade dispute between the US and India, with India's Modi government facing pressure from domestic farmers, leading to a refusal to open agricultural markets to the US, which escalated into a tariff war [1] - Recent developments indicate that Trump has reduced the "reciprocal" tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, suggesting progress in US-India tariff negotiations, although it implies Modi's significant concessions [3] - Modi's agreement to purchase over $500 billion worth of US products, including energy and defense, while committing to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero, highlights the extent of India's concessions to the US [3] Group 2 - Modi's shift in policy has angered Russia, as India is expected to reduce oil imports from Russia in favor of Venezuelan oil, which could disrupt diplomatic and security cooperation between India and Russia [5] - The signing of the US-India trade agreement may negatively impact India's relations with the EU, particularly in defense, as it could lead to increased US weaponry in India, undermining EU interests [6] - The potential backlash from domestic farmers against the opening of Indian markets to US agricultural products could lead to significant political repercussions for Modi, including protests and challenges from opposition parties [8]

在这种背景下，印度作为第一个对委内瑞拉新政府作出回应的重要国家，迅速转向与新政权展开合作， 放弃了与伊朗长期的石油供应关系，转而与美国控制的委内瑞拉政权接触。这一转变表面看似市场的选 择，但背后却是印度在外交压力下的妥协。此前，美国通过对印度购买俄罗斯和伊朗原油加征重税，迫 使印度国内油价飙升，经济压力和舆论压力让印度不得不选择美国提供的替代选项。这一举动表面上是 为了换取更低的进口关税和所谓的交易安全，但实质上是美国通过这一系列的外交策略，将印度拉入了 自己构建的全球能源供应链中，印度的合作成为了美国能源战略布局的第一步。更为关键的是，美国开 始朝着中国发出邀请，提出要为中国提供稳定的供应和融资渠道。可是，美国的前提条件是，中国必须 放弃与委内瑞拉政府的直接合作，转而加入由美国主导的全球能源体系。这无疑是要求中国承认这场政 权更替的合法性。 面对美国的频频示好，中国展现出异常谨慎的态度。中国外交部多次重申反对单方面干预拉美政局的立 场，坚定表示将继续维持与委内瑞拉之间的战略合作。对于美国提出的通过中间商进行石油交易的建 议，中国明确拒绝，并且没有对现有的协议进行任何修改。从实际需求来看，委内瑞拉的重油对中国 ...

自2026年2月4日0时起 升油单价调整幅度为 每升上调约0.16元-0.19元 长春地区 成品油零售价格调整如下 ↓↓↓ 92#车用乙醇汽油调前6.74元/升，调后6.90元/升，每升上调0.16元； 95#车用乙醇汽油调前7.27元/升，调后7.44元/升，每升上调0.17元； CN98#汽油调前7.92元/升，调后8.11元/升，每升上调0.19元； +5#车用柴油调前6.17元/升，调后6.33元/升，每升上调0.16元； 0#车用柴油调前6.33元/升，调后6.50元/升，每升下上调0.17元； -10#车用柴油调前6.68元/升，调后6.85元/升，每升上调0.17元； -20#车用柴油调前7.02元/升，调后7.21元/升，每升上调0.19元； -35#车用柴油调前7.22元/升，调后7.41元/升，每升上调0.19元。 吨油价格如下： 92#车用乙醇汽油调前8904元/吨，调后9121元/吨； 95#车用乙醇汽油调前9408元/吨，调后9638元/吨； 98#汽油调前10248元/吨，调后10498元/吨； +5#车用柴油调前7267元/吨，调后7458元/吨； 0#车用柴油调前7415元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

美国总统特朗普2日表示，他当天与印度总理莫迪通话，双方达成一项贸易协议。特朗普称，印度将停 止购买俄罗斯石油，美国则将降低印度输美商品关税税率。莫迪同日确认美将下调对印关税，但未就印 度停购俄石油一事表态。 分析人士认为，美印基于现实利益达成该协议，但印度出于多重考量，很难完全停止购买俄石油。该协 议虽能缓和两国经贸分歧，但难以从根本上推动美印关系改善。 去年8月，美国以印度"以直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对印度输美产品额外征收25%的关 税。特朗普2日称莫迪已同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，引发外界关注。 不过，印度方面并未公开证实这一说法。特朗普发文后，莫迪在社交媒体上说，美国同意把印度输美商 品关税税率降至18%，但并未提及印度石油进口政策的变化。 分析人士认为，作为世界第三大石油消费国和进口国，印度很难完全停止从俄罗斯进口石油。 降低关税，美印各有所求 特朗普当天在社交媒体发文称，莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，美国将把对印度商品加征的所 谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%，立即生效，印度同时降低对美关税和非关税壁垒。 特朗普还说，莫迪同意显著增加美国石油的采购量，并可能购买委内瑞拉石油。他说， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that India has not officially communicated any decision to stop purchasing Russian oil, despite claims made by US President Trump following a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi [2][4] - Trump stated that Modi agreed to significantly increase the procurement of US oil and may also purchase oil from Venezuela [4] - A bilateral trade agreement was reached, where the US will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, effective immediately, while India will lower its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US products [6] Group 2 - The agreement includes commitments from India to purchase over $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agriculture, and coal products, with Modi promising to enhance the level of "buying American" [6] - The US government had previously imposed a 25% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods starting August 7, following Trump's executive order aimed at pressuring India to stop importing Russian oil [6] - Negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US began in February of the previous year but were delayed due to differences in positions, particularly regarding oil procurement [6]

据此前报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间2日在社交媒体上发文称，他当天上午与印度总理莫迪通电话， 莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油。特朗普还称，莫迪同意显著增加美国石油的采购量，并可能购买委 内瑞拉石油。 中新网2月3日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社3日报道，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯尚未收到关 于印度拒绝购买俄石油的任何声明。 佩斯科夫还称，俄罗斯打算继续以各种可能的方式发展与印度的双边关系，并且俄方也正在这样做。 ...

每日经济新闻 地缘政治催化，石油景气度持续修复，2月3日，石油ETF（561360）收涨近3%，资金抢筹，近20日净 流入超20亿元。 光大证券指出，全球战略资源博弈加剧，深海资源战略价值凸显。地缘局势紧张抬升油价，考虑到美国 页岩油边际成本高企、OPEC+平衡油价的诉求以及2026年原油需求预期向好，预计油价在60美元/桶～ 80美元/桶区间宽幅震荡，中高位运行为石化板块景气奠定基础。供给端，炼化扩能接近尾声，在"反内 卷"政策及"油转化"加速背景下，行业供需有望改善，迈向高质量发展。化纤方面，涤纶长丝新增产能 较少，产能结构性优化加速。整体来看，石化行业供需态势有望持续改善，景气度持续修复。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气勘探、开采及服 务等相关领域的上市公司证券，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分股具有较 强的周期性特征，受国际油价波动影响较大，是跟踪能源行业表现的重要指标之一。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand for crude oil is in the off - season. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand situation. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. The cold wave is weakening, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected due to winter storms, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. The global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. Trump has reduced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. The Tianji oilfield in Kazakhstan will gradually resume production, but only half of the production capacity can be restored before February 7. Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, the current cold wave has weakened, and the impact of the next cold wave should be monitored. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 453.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4567 to 31633 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but also raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline has increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year. The weekly production of diesel has increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year. The production of gasoline and diesel has increased month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [4].