Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In late February 2026, a full - scale military conflict between the US and Iran broke out. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. This led to a double impact of physical energy supply interruption and global shipping system paralysis. The conflict may expand the supply gap of crude oil, causing oil prices to rise beyond expectations. High oil prices will push up global inflation, causing central banks to tighten monetary policies and suppressing demand for crude oil and energy - chemical products. In the short term, geopolitical risks will keep the prices of crude oil and high - elasticity energy - chemical products high. In the medium and long term, the market will gradually return to the supply - demand fundamentals, but prices are unlikely to return to pre - conflict lows [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction: US - Iran War and Closure of the Strait of Hormuz - In late February 2026, the US - Iran military conflict fully erupted. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. These two key global energy transportation channels were interrupted, causing a double impact on energy supply and the shipping system. The report analyzes the comprehensive impact of this extreme geopolitical event on crude oil and energy - chemical commodities from five dimensions [9]. 2. Supply Shortage and Increased Premiums of Domestic and Foreign Crude Oil - With the rapid increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the closure of the two straits, the energy supply shortage led to a sharp rise in the prices of domestic crude oil futures and downstream energy - chemical commodity futures on Monday. The domestic crude oil 2605 contract opened at the daily limit, and most other energy - chemical commodity futures also had large increases [10]. 3. Geopolitical Conflict Background and Strategic Status of the Two Straits - **US - Iran Conflict and Strait Blockade Process**: The US - Iran conflict originated from the breakdown of nuclear negotiations. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched large - scale air strikes on Iran's core military and political targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a full - scale ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. The core contradictions of the conflict focus on regional dominance, nuclear issues, and energy interests [22]. - **Strait of Hormuz**: It is the only maritime passage for crude oil exports from Persian Gulf oil - producing countries, with a daily crude oil transportation volume of 21 million barrels, accounting for 30% of global seaborne crude oil trade and 25% of global crude oil consumption. It is also crucial for Asian economies, such as China, Japan, and South Korea [23]. - **Bab el - Mandeb Strait**: It is a key node in the Mediterranean - Red Sea - Indian Ocean route, handling 12% of global seaborne trade volume. Its blockade forces the adjustment of the Asia - Europe route, increasing shipping costs and causing a re - allocation of global shipping capacity. It forms a "double - lock effect" with the Strait of Hormuz, paralyzing the global energy transportation network [24]. 4. Core Impact on the Crude Oil Market: Triple Impact on Supply, Price, and Shipping - **Supply Side**: The blockade of the two straits causes a substantial supply interruption in the global crude oil market. The daily supply gap is about 18 - 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global crude oil demand. Land - based pipeline alternatives are limited, and OPEC +'s idle capacity cannot be quickly released to alleviate the supply shortage [27][28]. - **Price Side**: The impact on crude oil prices is a triple resonance of geopolitical risk premium, supply gap, and market panic. In different scenarios, oil prices show significant differences. In the benchmark scenario, Brent crude may reach $120 - 150 per barrel; in the extreme scenario, it may exceed $150 per barrel; in the缓和 scenario, it may fall to $80 - 100 per barrel but not return to pre - conflict lows [30]. - **Shipping Side**: The blockade leads to a sharp increase in freight rates and insurance costs, and a re - configuration of shipping capacity. The daily rent of VLCCs has increased by over 130%, and the war - risk insurance rate has soared by 300% - 500%. The global shipping capacity is re - allocated, affecting non - energy commodity transportation [32]. 5. Energy - Chemical Commodity Industry Chain Conduction: Cost - Driven with Significant Variety Differentiation - **High - Elasticity Varieties (Fuel Oil, Asphalt)**: The cost of crude oil accounts for over 75% of their production costs. Fuel oil prices will rise sharply due to cost resonance and supply shocks, and asphalt will follow crude oil prices with a slightly lower increase [34][35]. - **Medium - Elasticity Varieties (Methanol, Polyolefins, PX/PTA)**: The crude oil cost accounts for 50% - 75%. They are affected by cost conduction and supply shortages. Methanol prices are expected to rise by 20% - 30%, polyolefins will follow crude oil prices, PX will have a large increase, and PTA's increase will be limited [36][37]. - **Low - Elasticity Varieties (Pure Benzene, Styrene, Ethylene Glycol)**: The crude oil cost accounts for less than 50%, and they have diversified raw material paths. Their prices will follow crude oil with limited increases [38][39]. 6. Regional Market Impact: Specificity and Response of the Chinese Energy - Chemical Market - **Crude Oil Import**: China's diversified import sources and strategic oil reserves can alleviate the impact of supply shortages to some extent [40]. - **Energy - Chemical Production**: China's coal - based energy - chemical products have cost advantages, reducing the industry's dependence on crude oil and suppressing excessive price increases [40]. - **Market Trend**: The domestic energy - chemical futures market shows that the domestic market is stronger than the international market, and near - term contracts have higher increases than far - term contracts [41]. 7. Conclusion - The US - Iran conflict may further expand the supply gap of crude oil, causing oil prices to rise beyond expectations. High oil prices will suppress demand, and long - term strait blockades may lead to industrial chain disruptions. In the short term, geopolitical risks will keep prices high, and in the medium and long term, prices will gradually return to the supply - demand fundamentals but not reach pre - conflict lows [42].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20260302 伊朗冲突还有哪些变数？——海外周报 20260302 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《伊朗问题对股债商汇等大类资产的 影响 》 2026-03-02 《开门红：工业、地产和出口》 2026-03-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] 1. 大类资产 最近一周（2 月 23 日至 3 月 1 日），海外宏观经济基本面的变化不大，而伊朗地缘 风险、特朗普关税、AI"破坏论"持续发酵，海外市场不确定性延续升温，避险情绪带 动大宗商品和全球长期国债上涨，全球股市则表现分化：日韩股市领涨，纳斯达克、恒 生科技指数 ...

Asset Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up prices of precious metals and crude oil during the period from February 13 to February 27, with COMEX silver leading at a 19.8% increase, significantly outperforming gold at 5.0%[7] - Brent crude oil rose by 7.0% and WTI crude oil by 6.6% due to supply concerns stemming from the geopolitical situation[7] Equity Markets - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance, with the KOSPI index increasing by 13.4%, marking a year-to-date gain of 48.2%[16] - Emerging markets have outperformed developed markets, with the MSCI global index rising by 1.3% during the same period[16] - A-shares performed well, with the Wind All A index up by 2.7%, and small-cap stocks like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both rising by 4.3%[16] Bond Markets - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread narrowing to 0.42%[24] - In the U.S., the bond market showed a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve moving downward and the 10Y-2Y spread also narrowing[24] Commodity and Currency Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.1% during the same period[16] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.8%, with the Chinese yuan appreciating by 0.8% against the dollar, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2%[7] - The South China commodity index increased by 3.6%, with significant gains in precious metals and crude oil[7] Risk Indicators - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has slightly decreased from 0.73 to 0.72, while the correlation between U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks has increased from 0.33 to 0.37[7] - The report highlights potential risks including data timeliness, significant macroeconomic changes, and unexpected asset price movements[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has intensified, impacting the Middle - East financial market and potentially causing significant fluctuations in the global financial market, including stocks, bonds, and oil prices [2][10][12] - The market's attitude towards bonds has changed due to various expected differences, such as the impact of the new economy led by AI on the traditional economy, inflation judgment, and better - than - expected bond supply - demand relationship [25] - In the short term, the A - share market is risk - controllable, and the tense Middle - East situation may bring investment opportunities to some sectors [26] Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period of the previous year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up slightly from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing was 7220.8 billion yuan, a significant increase from 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month [1] - In January 2026, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, the same as the previous month, and PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.1% in the previous month [1] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated, causing the Iranian stock market to halt trading and leading to declines in Saudi and Egyptian stock indices [2] - Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped, and major shipping companies have avoided the Persian Gulf [2] - Barclays Bank predicts that Brent crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, with a 35% upside [3] - The Dominican Republic may become a major supplier of rare earth minerals [3] Metals - On February 27, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1160 yuan to 171,900 yuan per ton, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased by 490 yuan to 162,600 yuan per ton [4] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry adjusted the prices of its cemented carbide products on March 1 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Due to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle - East, the IMX container shipping route has been redirected via the Cape of Good Hope [6] - OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [6] - India plans to cut coal imports for power plants by at least 30% in 2026 [6] Agricultural Products - Indonesia raised the export tariff on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March 1 [7] Financial News Compilation Open Market - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 611.4 billion yuan, and this week, 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [8] - On February 28, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan on that day [9] Key News - The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has intensified, and China has expressed its stance of opposing military actions and promoting dialogue [10][11] - Analysts predict that the military action may cause the global stock market to decline by 1% - 2% next Monday, the US Treasury yield to drop by 5 - 10 basis points, and oil prices to rise by 5% - 10% [12] - In 2025, China's GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase year - on - year [12] - The 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [13] Bond Market Summary - On Saturday, due to the escalation of the conflict, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined by 1 - 2 basis points, and trading activity increased [20] - On Saturday, most money - market interest rates showed an upward trend, while short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, and inter - bank repurchase fixed - term rates and inter - bank repurchase rates among banks were mostly down [21][22] Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8559, down 162 basis points from the previous trading day [23] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that three key signals will determine the impact on the global market [24] - CICC Fixed Income states that the market's attitude towards bonds has changed due to expected differences [25] - Shenwan Fixed Income suggests that the downward space of certificate of deposit rates may be limited, and the downward space of long - term bond yields may narrow [26] - Everbright Fixed Income believes that the A - share market is stable in the long - term and risk - controllable in the short - term, and the Middle - East situation may bring investment opportunities [26] Today's Reminders - On March 2, 85 bonds will be listed, 114 bonds will be issued, 49 bonds will make payments, and 414 bonds will repay principal and interest [27][28] Stock Market Key News - In the first two months of this year, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 6.86%, but southbound funds continued to flow in, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan being the top net - bought stocks in the past 20 trading days [29]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran has escalated, with significant implications for global oil prices and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply disruptions [1][5][10]. Group 1: Military Conflict and Market Impact - President Trump's recent statements indicate a commitment to continue military actions against Iran until all objectives are met, suggesting a prolonged conflict [1]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the duration of the conflict has become a critical variable influencing oil, gold, and U.S. stock market trends, replacing the initial outbreak of hostilities as the primary concern [5][10]. - The potential for a significant increase in oil prices (10%-15%) is anticipated if markets reopen, with Brent crude possibly exceeding $80 per barrel [3]. Group 2: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Supply - The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately 20% of global oil transport, has not been physically closed, but shipping volumes have significantly decreased due to market fears and self-imposed pauses [2][4]. - Current shipping disruptions are attributed to insurance companies withdrawing coverage and industry pauses in response to U.S. Navy requests, rather than direct actions from Iran or military strikes on oil infrastructure [2][4]. Group 3: Economic and Inflation Concerns - Goldman Sachs highlights the risk of a return to the "2022 energy shock scenario," which could lead to persistent inflationary pressures and complicate monetary policy for central banks [6][9]. - The current macroeconomic environment shows structural changes in inflation dynamics, with high fiscal spending and AI investment contributing to elevated inflation expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Asset Class Implications - For commodities, Goldman Sachs suggests that if commodity price increases become sustainable, the market will shift from a simple risk-hedging approach to a more complex interplay of inflation, growth, and distribution factors [12][13]. - In the equity market, the outlook is predominantly negative, with significant impacts expected only from severe and prolonged oil supply disruptions [14]. - The foreign exchange market may favor the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen as preferred safe-haven assets amid rising oil prices and supply shocks [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, crude oil showed a wide - range volatile upward trend, mainly influenced by the repeated geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The US crude oil's fundamental situation is generally in an oversupply pattern, but since the beginning of the year, it has been mainly affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. Currently, there has been no substantial progress in the three - round negotiation, and the later progress needs to be continuously monitored. Technically, it shows a strong - side volatile trend [8]. - The strategy is to hold long positions lightly according to the original medium - term long - buying plan and buy and hold put options for protection. In case of a sudden decline due to geopolitical easing, pay attention to timely closing of long positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Each Directory 3.1 Monthly Views and Strategies - **Market Review**: In January, crude oil showed a wide - range volatile upward trend, mainly affected by the repeated geopolitical situation between the US and Iran [8]. - **Supply**: In January, OPEC +'s total crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 439,000 barrels per day. Among them, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.086 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 barrels per day. The OPEC meeting in March is expected to discuss an increase in production in April. US crude oil production fluctuates slightly at a high level [8]. - **Demand**: The IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day and warned of a serious supply surplus in the market, with inventories reaching a new high since the pandemic. The EIA slightly raised the forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. In 2026, the demand growth rate is 1.21 million barrels per day, a 70,000 - barrel - per - day increase compared to the January 2026 forecast. OPEC basically maintained the forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. It is expected that the demand growth rate in 2026 will be 1.39 million barrels per day, a 10,000 - barrel - per - day increase compared to the January forecast. US refineries are entering the spring maintenance period, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. Chinese refineries maintain a high operating rate [8]. - **Inventory**: In December, the OECD's commercial petroleum inventory increased by 6.5 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil decreasing by 2.1 million barrels and refined oil increasing by 8.6 million barrels), 89.9 million barrels higher than the same period last year and 44.1 million barrels higher than the average of the past five years. There is an upward inventory - building trend with fluctuations throughout the year. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the floating storage inventory has risen again. After the refinery operating rate declined, the US crude oil inventory continued to rise, and the refined oil inventory decreased, but the gasoline inventory remained at a high level [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - In February, international crude oil maintained a volatile trend, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Domestic SC crude oil mainly follows the trend of international crude oil. The BRENT - WTI spread widened and was higher year - on - year. The SC - Oman spread weakened and was lower year - on - year [18][23][29]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Drilling Quantity**: In January, the number of active global oil and gas rigs was 1,821, a month - on - month increase of 39 and a year - on - year decrease of 69. Among them, the number of US rigs was 545, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 37 [35]. - **OPEC and Saudi Crude Oil Production**: In January, OPEC +'s total crude oil production was 42.448 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 439,000 barrels per day. Among them, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.086 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 barrels per day [40]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of February 20, the US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 20 barrels per day. In January, the US shale oil production was 8.93 million barrels per day, accounting for about 65% of the total crude oil production [58]. - **Chinese Crude Oil Production and Imports**: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Crude Oil Demand**: In January 2026, the global crude oil demand was 105.45 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. In 2025, China's apparent crude oil consumption was 791 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% [69]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: As of the week of February 20, the US refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points. US refineries are entering the spring maintenance period, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The Chinese refinery operating rate was 73.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.28 percentage points. Domestic major refineries' operating rate remained flat month - on - month and was at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Independent refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was higher year - on - year [74][78]. - **Refined Oil Production and Exports**: In January 2026, China's gasoline production was 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%, at a low level in the same period in recent years. In 2025, the cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. In January 2026, diesel production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. In 2025, the cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. In January 2026, kerosene production was 5.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. In 2025, the cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.61% [83][88][93]. - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In January 2026, China's automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, unchanged year - on - year. Among them, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.041 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The new - energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [98]. 3.6 Inventory - **Petroleum Inventory**: In December, the OECD's commercial petroleum inventory increased by 6.5 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil decreasing by 2.1 million barrels and refined oil increasing by 8.6 million barrels), 89.9 million barrels higher than the same period last year and 44.1 million barrels higher than the average of the past five years. There is an upward inventory - building trend with fluctuations throughout the year. The global in - transit crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the floating storage inventory has risen again [104]. - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of the week of February 20, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 15.989 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 881,000 barrels. After the refinery operating rate decreased, the crude oil inventory accumulated rapidly [106]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week of February 20, the US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 252,000 barrels. The operating rate of US refineries weakened, gasoline consumption at the terminal accumulated in the off - season, and the demand for distillate oil was good, leading to inventory reduction [111]. - **Chinese Crude Oil Inventory**: China's crude oil port inventory rebounded slightly and was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline [116]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Data - **GDP and US Dollar**: No specific analysis content provided in the report. - **Non - farm Payrolls and PMI**: No specific analysis content provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is bullish. The reference view is a strong operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle View - For crude oil 2604, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillating, and the intraday view is bullish [1] 3.2 Core Logic - With the military attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing the transportation of energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East. The premium of crude oil may increase significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced an increase in production starting from the second quarter, the short - term geopolitical factors outweigh the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by bullish factors, international crude oil futures prices have risen sharply, which may drive the domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and operate strongly on Monday [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices surged in response to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, with diesel prices increasing at a faster rate than crude and gasoline prices [1]. Price Movements - Ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) prices rose by 12.84% to $2.8415 per gallon, later trading above $2.90 per gallon [3]. - Global crude benchmark Brent increased by approximately 7.4% to $78.27 per barrel, later trading above $82 per barrel [3]. - RBOB gasoline prices increased by 6.95% to $2.4104 per gallon [4]. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 7.28% to $71.90 per barrel [4]. Historical Context - If ULSD settles at $2.84 per gallon, it would mark the highest CME settlement since February 13, 2024 [5]. - A Brent settlement above $78.27 per barrel would be the highest since January 28, 2025 [5]. Retail Prices - The national average retail diesel price was reported at $3.761 per gallon, with California prices reaching $5.107 per gallon [6]. - The weekly average retail diesel price from the Department of Energy was $3.809 per gallon, marking the sixth consecutive week of price increases [7]. Market Dynamics - Oil markets began trading in a new environment following the geopolitical developments, with traders adjusting to the implications of the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran [8].

Company and Industry Insights - Alibaba's personal AI assistant "Qianwen" is entering the AI hardware market, planning to launch various AI hardware products globally within the year, including AI glasses, rings, and headphones, with the first product set to be unveiled at the 2026 Mobile World Congress [7] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to open up significant market opportunities as electric and intelligent technologies evolve, marking a critical investment phase from "0 to 1" in the humanoid robot supply chain [7] - In the shipping sector, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to increase risk premiums, with VLCC daily charter rates exceeding $200,000, reaching a new high since April 2020 [7] - The oil shipping market is facing disruptions, with vessels in the Strait of Hormuz reporting zero speed, indicating a halt in shipping activities due to escalating regional tensions [8] - BYD reported February sales of 190,190 new energy vehicles, with 100,600 units exported, showcasing strong performance in overseas markets [9] - NIO delivered 20,797 new vehicles in February, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.6%, maintaining an upward trend in deliveries among new energy vehicle manufacturers [9] - Chuangsheng Co. announced a price increase of 5-15% for LED power products starting March 16 to address rising raw material costs [9] - Zhongying Technology plans to acquire at least 51% of Yingzhong Electric to enhance business expansion and industry chain integration [9] - Chery Automobile's total sales across five brands in February reached 146,173 units, a decrease of approximately 14.8% year-on-year, necessitating attention to future market strategy adjustments [9] - Huazhu Group announced changes in part of its board and senior management, indicating a restructuring of its governance [9]