现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...

Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on post-completion projects and renovation of second-hand homes [1] - As of April 30, the overall PB (Price to Book) for the construction materials sector is at 1.0x, indicating a historical low valuation, while the PE (Price to Earnings) for various segments shows significant differences [1] - In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached 521,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, indicating a resilient real estate market [1] Cement Sector - The cement market is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, with a projected year-on-year decline of 1.4% in Q1 2025 production, but municipal infrastructure is providing some support [2] - Central government policies promoting production optimization and price maintenance have improved the profitability of cement companies, with gross and net profit margins expected to rise in 2024 [2] - The overall average price of cement is anticipated to continue its upward trend in 2025, leading to a potential recovery in industry profits [2] Glass Sector - Demand for glass remains resilient, primarily driven by the progress in housing completion projects, although prices are under pressure due to overall weak demand [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with fewer production lines expected to resume operations, leading to a more stable industry environment [3] - The recommendation for investment focuses on companies like Qibin Group, which are expected to see a reversal in profitability and valuation [3] Consumer Building Materials - Retail business is becoming a key growth driver, with leading companies accelerating their retail development in response to the renovation cycle of second-hand and existing homes [4] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies increasing their market share, particularly in the waterproofing materials sector [4] - The consumer building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a low allocation in public fund holdings, suggesting potential for growth [4] Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber industry is seeing a recovery in prices due to improved demand from wind energy and consumer electronics, with the average price reaching 3,812.5 yuan/ton as of April 18, 2025 [5] - Inventory levels have decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which is favorable for long-term industry growth [5] - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are expected to benefit from valuation and profit recovery opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is facing significant capacity shocks, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with key players like China National Materials and Honghe Technology positioned well in this segment [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Industry Segments - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed recently, particularly in North China, East China, and Central South regions [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with mainstream prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include China National Materials, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Gaozheng Mining [20][21]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is experiencing significant capacity increases, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with expectations for the second generation of these products to continue the high demand trend [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Sub-Industry Tracking - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Zhongcai Technology, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Resources Cement Technology [20][21] - The report emphasizes the long-term value of traditional building materials and the growth potential of new energy materials [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the carbon fiber sector, particularly for companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying, due to increasing demand driven by the low-altitude economy and UAV applications [2][13]. Core Insights - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [2][13]. - The carbon fiber composite materials are critical for lightweighting in low-altitude economy aircraft, comprising approximately 60-80% of the total structure weight of UAVs [2][13]. - The eVTOL market in China is projected to exceed 100,000 units by 2030, potentially increasing carbon fiber demand by approximately 20,400 tons [2][13]. - The report highlights ongoing supportive policies for the low-altitude economy, including a 300 million yuan annual fund in Sichuan to promote development [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - Jilin Chemical Fiber's price adjustment reflects the growing demand for carbon fiber in the UAV sector, with significant export growth noted [2][13]. 2. Belt and Road Initiative - Recent developments include Colombia's intention to join the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation agreements signed between China and Brazil [3][14]. 3. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 379 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase, while glass prices decreased slightly [4][15]. - The report notes a mixed performance across various construction materials, with cement and glass facing downward pressure [4][15]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The home appliance market saw significant growth during the May Day holiday, with online retail sales increasing by 24.7% year-on-year [5][16]. 5. Important Changes - The US and China agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs, which may positively impact trade dynamics [6][17]. - Jilin Chemical Fiber's price increase for carbon fiber products is a notable market change [6][17]. 6. Market Performance (0512-0516) - The construction materials index showed a slight decline, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing a drop [18][22]. 7. Construction Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, particularly in northern and central regions, while glass prices faced downward pressure due to weak demand [27][40]. - The report indicates a stable pricing environment for carbon fiber, despite rising production costs [67][69].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the carbon fiber sector, particularly for companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Zhongfu Shenying, due to increasing demand driven by the low-altitude economy and UAV applications [14][15]. Core Insights - Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [14]. - The carbon fiber composite materials are critical for lightweighting in low-altitude economy aircraft, comprising approximately 60-80% of the total structure weight of UAVs [14]. - The eVTOL market in China is projected to exceed 100,000 units by 2030, potentially increasing carbon fiber demand by approximately 20,400 tons [14]. - The report highlights ongoing supportive policies for the low-altitude economy, including a 300 million yuan annual fund in Sichuan to promote development [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - Jilin Chemical Fiber's price adjustment reflects the growing demand in the low-altitude economy and UAV sectors, with carbon fiber being a key material [14]. 2. Belt and Road Initiative - Recent developments include Colombia's intention to join the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation agreements signed between China and Brazil [15]. 3. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into various construction materials, noting a slight decline in cement prices and stable pricing in the glass and fiberglass sectors [16][19]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The home appliance market shows significant growth during the May Day holiday, with online retail sales increasing by 24.7% year-on-year [17]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between the US and China, which may positively impact trade dynamics [18]. 6. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a slight decline of 0.29% during the week, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing experiencing a 0.60% drop [19]. 7. Building Material Price Changes - Cement prices have decreased by 1.1%, with regional variations noted, while glass prices have also shown a downward trend due to weak demand [28][41].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic glass futures market is experiencing a downturn, with significant supply contraction and high inventory levels impacting prices and profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 16, glass futures opened at 1033.00 CNY/ton, with a decline of 2.51% by midday, reaching a low of 1008.00 CNY [1]. - The average operating rate in the float glass industry decreased to 75%, a reduction of 0.24% week-on-week, while the average capacity utilization rate fell to 77.98%, down 0.04 percentage points [1]. - National float glass production dropped to 1.0917 million tons, marking a two-and-a-half-month low [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises increased by 0.77% to 68.082 million heavy boxes, the highest level in nearly two months, with a year-on-year increase of 14.45% [1]. - The price of coal-based gas has risen, leading to a weekly profit for float glass using this fuel dropping to 104.2 CNY/ton, the lowest in six weeks [1]. - The price of petroleum coke rebounded to 2910 CNY, resulting in a negative weekly profit of -70.02 CNY/ton for float glass using this fuel [1]. - Natural gas prices decreased by 31 CNY to 4441 CNY, with a slight adjustment in weekly profit to -149.52 CNY/ton for float glass using natural gas [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Zhongtian Futures, glass prices are showing signs of slowing down near the 1000 CNY mark, with ongoing supply contraction but high midstream inventory levels [2]. - Hualian Futures noted that with the end of the glass demand peak season, manufacturers are facing increased inventory pressure, leading to a weak supply-demand dynamic in the short term [2]. - The expectation of continued demand contraction is likely to exert downward pressure on the market, with recommendations for short-term bearish trading strategies [2].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年05月16日08时21分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 4 月的信贷数据较差，印证降准降息等重磅举措的必要性 ，政策面利 多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。本周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所上升，厂库回落， 社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求回升。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为今年大概率会有限产政策出台 。整体来看，目前市场逐 渐由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期可能还没有发生实质性的改变 。从技术上看，短线大幅反弹，下行 趋势进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现后出现大幅调整 ； 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3118 -9 -0.29% 66 2.16% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3260 -7 -0.21% 69 2.16 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash futures may have a short - term small - scale rebound in May but lack continuous upward momentum. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply, and prices are expected to enter a downward channel again in mid - to - late May [8]. - The cost support of float glass futures prices may appear in the short term, and the short - term market has a certain support due to the expectation of rush - to - export. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is the key factor for the subsequent trend [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda ash futures**: On May 15, the main soda ash futures SA509 maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 1330 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase and an increase of 82,994 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda ash spot**: Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. The weekly output in the week of May 15 fell to 677,700 tons, a decrease of 8.52%; the weekly operating load rate dropped to 83%. As of May 8, the shipment volume was 711,700 tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous period. As of May 15, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - soda ash remained at 880,000 tons [8]. - **Glass futures**: The FG509 contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton on May 16, down 1 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease [7]. - **Glass market**: The overall profit of the float glass production industry increased slightly. Production remained stable, demand was relatively flat, downstream procurement was conservative, and inventory accumulated. The futures price was approaching the production cost line [9][10]. 2. Industry News - China and the US will maintain communication on economic and trade concerns based on the consensus of the Geneva talks [11]. - The domestic float glass market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and trading was average. Different regions had different price trends [11]. - The baking soda market in Henan was operating steadily with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda was estimated at 1200 - 1260 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market prices, and flat glass production [13][19][21]

Group 1 - The booking volume for container transport from China to the US surged nearly 300% after the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, with an average of 21,530 standard containers booked in the week ending May 14, up from 5,709 containers in the week ending May 5 [1] - Rebar production in China increased to 2.2653 million tons, a rise of 30,000 tons or 1.34% from the previous week, while apparent demand rose by 460,000 tons or 21.69% to 2.6029 million tons [1] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record soybean yield of 66.3 bags per hectare for the 2024/2025 season, exceeding recent averages by 14 bags [1] Group 2 - The expected biodiesel blending obligation in the US is projected to be between 4.6 to 4.8 billion gallons, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons [2] - Brazil's soybean exports are forecasted to reach 3.9898 million tons for the week of May 11 to May 17, up from 3.1062 million tons the previous week [2] - Approximately 17% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, an increase from 15% the previous week, while 22% of corn planting areas are affected, up from 20% [2] Group 3 - The float glass industry in China is experiencing a supply contraction, with an average operating rate of 75%, down 0.24% week-on-week, and production falling to 1.0917 million tons, the lowest in two and a half months [3] - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10.9222 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8.412 million tons per year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]