Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook on consumer opportunities, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption trends, supported by various government policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes that the May Day holiday data shows significant growth in both the number of travelers and total spending, suggesting a strong recovery in the consumer sector [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index level is 7997.15, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 5985.5 [1] Recent Research Insights - The report notes a 6.4% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a growth of 8.0% [4][5] - Retail and catering sectors showed a 6.3% increase in sales, with specific categories like home appliances and automobiles seeing growth rates of 15.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Focused Targets - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as liquor and catering, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [9] - Recommended stocks include Yum China, Haidilao, and various tourism and hotel companies [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]

Group 1: Overall A Performance - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares showed a slight recovery, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 4.2% respectively, compared to significant declines in Q4 2024 of -15.1% and -47.2% [8][9][12] - The return on equity (ROE) continued to decline, reaching 7.8% in Q1 2025, down from 7.9% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decrease in asset turnover rate [8][10][11] - The computer, agriculture, and steel industries led profit growth in Q1 2025, while real estate, coal, and military industries lagged behind [12][15] Group 2: Fund Quarterly Report - Active equity public funds increased their positions and reduced redemptions, with stock positions for ordinary equity, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds at 89.36%, 88.17%, and 76.70% respectively, showing slight increases from Q4 2024 [16][18][20] - The total redemption for active equity public funds in Q1 2025 was 72.3 billion, a significant decrease of 67.0% compared to 218.9 billion in Q4 2024 [16][18] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing sectors saw increased allocations, while financial real estate and cyclical sectors were reduced [20][22] Group 3: Policy Insights - The focus of the Political Bureau meeting was on stabilizing internal confidence, with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at accelerating the use of existing tools [30] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a shift in policy framework [30] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report maintains an optimistic view on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of observing volume and price during the market observation period, with a focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency [7] - Key sectors for domestic demand include media, food and beverage, real estate, transportation, automotive, and agriculture, with specific trends noted in each [7] - The self-sufficiency strategy is driven by the strategic competition in the technology sector between China and the US, leading to a restructuring of the domestic industrial chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies demonstrated strong resilience and stability in 2024, achieving a total operating revenue of 49.57 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.35 trillion yuan, supported by a series of incremental policies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the main board companies was 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [2]. - Approximately 80% of companies reported profits, with 40% experiencing year-on-year net profit growth; over 230 companies saw net profit increases exceeding 30%, and 78 companies turned losses into profits [2]. - The annual trend showed a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half; operating cash flow improved notably, with a 15% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: Stability and Growth - Over the past five years, the main board's operating revenue and net profit have both seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [3]. - A total of 744 "long-distance running" companies achieved positive compound growth in both revenue and net profit over five years, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue and over 80% of total profit [3]. - Key sectors such as finance, energy, construction, and transportation played a significant role, contributing over 80% of profits, while emerging sectors like automotive, biomedicine, and intelligent manufacturing showed a net profit CAGR of 10% over three years [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - In the past decade, the proportion of companies in emerging industries such as electronics, communications, biomedicine, and automotive has risen to 40%, with the number of firms in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles doubling [4]. - Emerging industries contributed over 40% of net profits in manufacturing and services, with a net profit CAGR of 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - In 2024, industries such as electronics, communications, and automotive saw net profit growth of 11%, 6%, and 4% respectively, driven by trends in AI technology, cloud computing, and electrification [4]. Group 4: R&D Investment - In 2024, R&D investment by companies on the main board exceeded 1 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of national R&D expenditure [5]. - The main board's entities invested approximately 920 billion yuan in R&D, with 723 companies investing over 100 million yuan [5]. - Companies with R&D investments exceeding 1 billion yuan and a CAGR above 5% over three years saw average net profit growth outperforming the overall level by 3.6 to 6.1 percentage points [5]. Group 5: Dividends and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, 1,259 companies on the main board announced cash dividends, with a total dividend amount of 1.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [7]. - The overall dividend payout ratio reached 39%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, with 1,041 companies distributing over 30% of their profits as dividends [7]. - A trend of multiple dividends within a year emerged, with 366 companies implementing interim dividends totaling 574.9 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [7]. Group 6: Share Buybacks and Support Measures - In 2024, the number of disclosed share buyback plans reached 400, and important shareholder buyback plans reached 380, both doubling year-on-year [8]. - The total amount for proposed buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, showing significant growth [8]. - Since the introduction of special loans in September 2024, 205 companies disclosed buyback plans utilizing these loans, with a total loan amount exceeding 52 billion yuan [8].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of actively managed equity funds increased to 85.47%, up by 0.40 percentage points from Q4 2024 [4][5][12] - The main sectors with increased holdings included financial real estate, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical industries, with financial real estate seeing the largest increase from 3.7% to 4.3% [9][12] - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the automotive and chemical sectors while reducing exposure to military, environmental protection, and transportation sectors [12][19] Group 2 - The top five sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q1 2025 were electronics (20.3%), pharmaceuticals (10.4%), basic chemicals (8.9%), public utilities (7.2%), and communications (6.9%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were automotive (+0.8%), basic chemicals (+0.6%), real estate (+0.3%), construction materials (+0.2%), and public utilities (+0.2%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest decreases in holdings were military defense (-0.9%), environmental protection (-0.6%), transportation (-0.6%), computers (-0.3%), and steel (-0.2%) [12][19] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, large-scale actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non-ferrous metals and home appliances while reducing exposure to non-bank financials and food and beverage sectors [19][24] - The top five sectors for large-scale actively managed equity funds were electronics (19.0%), food and beverage (16.5%), power equipment (11.3%), non-bank financials (9.7%), and pharmaceuticals (9.5%) [19][24] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were non-ferrous metals (+3.0%), home appliances (+2.3%), power equipment (+1.6%), machinery (+0.9%), and automotive (+0.7%) [19][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings in the top 20 stocks increased significantly in Q1 2025, with the top 5 holdings rising to 18.5%, top 10 to 27.7%, and top 100 to 65.9% [23][29] - The top 20 stocks with the largest increases in holdings were primarily in the electronics, automotive, and communications sectors [25][31] - The top three stocks with the largest increases in holdings were BYD, Zijin Mining, and Chipone Technology [25][31] Group 5 - Expectations for Q2 2025 indicate that holdings in technology, consumer, and certain cyclical sectors may remain high due to government policies promoting AI and consumption [32][33] - The agricultural and food and beverage sectors are expected to see increased holdings due to low current positions and improving consumption potential [32][33] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from ongoing real estate policies and increased demand [32][33]

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The departure of fund manager Zhou Haidong from Huashang Fund marks a significant event in the industry, reflecting broader trends of "de-starring" and fee reform within the fund management sector [1][9]. Group 1: Zhou Haidong's Departure - Zhou Haidong has resigned from his position as fund manager for six funds due to personal reasons and will not take on any other roles within Huashang Fund [1][3]. - Zhou was recognized as a "dark horse" fund manager, achieving both performance and scale growth, with management assets exceeding 35 billion yuan at one point [1][5]. - His management style focused on a diversified investment approach, which helped him avoid losses during market downturns [7]. Group 2: Fund Management Transition - Following Zhou's departure, other experienced fund managers will take over the management of the funds he previously oversaw, ensuring continuity in management [4]. - Huashang Fund has emphasized its commitment to building a robust research and investment team, having trained a team of 65 members with an average of 8.59 years of experience [10]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The fund management industry is experiencing a shift towards index funds, which are gaining popularity due to lower fees and reduced reliance on individual fund managers [10][11]. - The trend of "de-starring" fund managers is becoming more common, with several notable fund managers leaving their positions in recent years [9]. - The industry is entering a "thin profit, high sales" phase, which may lead to a less exciting investment environment unless active equity funds can regain their footing [11].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2024, indicating a potential for structural opportunities to increase compared to 2023 [1][2] Core Views - The report identifies three main perspectives on the A-share market: 1. The market is expected to stabilize, avoiding extremes of caution or exuberance seen in previous years [1] 2. Market fluctuations are anticipated to be more frequent but with smaller amplitudes, with a better environment expected in the second half of the year [2] 3. The importance of bottom-up stock selection is expected to rise, contrasting with the previous year's focus on top-down macro strategies [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report posits that the significant market bottom occurred in September of the previous year, with limited chances of returning to that level in the next 1-2 years [1] - It anticipates a return to normal risk preferences, with structural opportunities likely to increase in 2024 [1] Market Rhythm - The report notes that the market's rhythm in the previous year was characterized by significant ups and downs, while this year is expected to have quicker changes with smaller fluctuations [2] - The second half of the year is projected to have a better market environment compared to the first half [2] Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes a shift from top-down macro strategies to bottom-up stock selection, indicating that last year's major events have already occurred, leading to a focus on ongoing trends rather than new turning points [3] - It highlights three key investment themes for the year: 1. Not all growth stocks are worth buying, with a focus on technology growth in the first half and renewable energy manufacturing in the second half [4][11] 2. Some resilient external demand should still be considered [11] 3. Dividend assets are viewed as offering structural opportunities rather than a broad trend [12] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant trading volume, accounting for approximately 46% of the A-share market recently [6] - It draws parallels to the market conditions of 2013, where the overall index remained flat while certain sectors, like the ChiNext, experienced substantial growth [6][10] Policy Support - The report suggests that policy support will continue to be a trend, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and debt repayment expected to remain relevant [13]