Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has recently surpassed the 4000-point mark, raising concerns about whether it will continue to rise towards 5000 points or face a correction. Investors are particularly anxious as many have not experienced such high levels in the past decade, and there are questions about potential market bubbles, especially with the high price-to-earnings ratios in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][3]. Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The global economic and political landscape is currently influenced by the Federal Reserve's sixth interest rate cut and the impending halt of its balance sheet reduction. This shift indicates a forthcoming period of monetary easing, which could lead to significant capital market fluctuations globally [3]. - The "dollar tidal effect" has been highlighted, where the Fed's interest rate hikes have previously led to capital flight from smaller economies, forcing them to raise their own interest rates to retain foreign investment [3][6]. A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's trajectory over the past two years has been characterized by a recovery from a low of 2600 points to the current 4000 points, driven by state-led monetary policies rather than organic market recovery. Institutional investments from entities like the Central Huijin and social security funds have exceeded 265 billion yuan [6][8]. - The current bull market is not indicative of a broad economic recovery but rather a state-driven liquidity boost aimed at preventing foreign capital from taking advantage of low valuations during the Fed's easing cycle [8][9]. Implications for Foreign Investment - The A-share market's rise has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a broader revaluation of Chinese assets. The aim is to prevent foreign investors from acquiring undervalued Chinese stocks during the Fed's monetary easing [9][10]. - The overall foreign investment in the A-share market remains limited, with foreign ownership at approximately 4%, but the interconnectedness with the Hong Kong market is significant [8][9]. Future Market Outlook - The expectation is that the A-share market will not experience significant corrections, with a potential upward trend towards 5000 or even 6000 points. The stability of large state-owned enterprises, particularly in banking and insurance, is crucial for maintaining the index's performance [11]. - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than the overall market index, as the performance of the index may not reflect the profitability of many individual stocks [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of Guosheng bond - related fundamentals from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025. It shows that the Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable with changes in various sub - indicators. The interest - rate bond long - short signal is adjusted downwards, and different economic aspects such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing present different trends [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.6 points (previous value: 128.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 4.4% (previous value: 4.6%), a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1][9][11]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5 points (previous value: 127.4 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electric furnace operating rate is 59.6% (previous value: 60.9%), a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Significantly - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.7 points (previous value: 41.9 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decrease is expanding. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 18.8 million square meters (previous value: 31.7 million square meters), a decrease of 12.9 million square meters [1][9][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Drops - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.4 points (previous value: 122.3 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points (previous value: 8.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The asphalt operating rate is 29.7% (previous value: 31.5%), a decrease of 1.8 percentage points [1][9][44]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 143.6 points (previous value: 143.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 point (previous value: 1.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index is 1058.2 points (previous value: 1021.4 points), an increase of 36.8 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Drops - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.6 points (previous value: 120.7 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The average daily movie box office is 29630,000 yuan (previous value: 30900,000 yuan), a decrease of 1270,000 yuan [1][9][55]. 3.7 CPI: Food Prices Rise Slightly Overall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.5 yuan/kg) [2][61]. 3.8 PPI: Spot Prices of Copper and Aluminum Drop - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 10704 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10964 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 261 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2859 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2868 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [2][64]. 3.9 Transportation: Transportation High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The transportation high - frequency index is 132.4 points (previous value: 132.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 10.4 points (previous value: 10.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39790,000 person - times (previous value: 40550,000 person - times), a decrease of 750,000 person - times; the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1049 points), an increase of 0.3 point; the number of domestic flights is 12273 (previous value: 12461), a decrease of 188 [2][76]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.9 points (previous value: 162.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 8.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.6 million tons (previous value: 8.5 million tons), an increase of 3.1 million tons; the soda ash inventory is 170.3 million tons (previous value: 169.7 million tons), an increase of 0.6 million tons [2][82]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Drops Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 241.6 points (previous value: 241.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.4 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local bonds is - 36 billion yuan (previous value: 178 billion yuan), a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 92 billion yuan (previous value: - 12.6 billion yuan), an increase of 104.6 billion yuan [2][94].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The construction industry has experienced a decline in revenue and performance, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year. The overall profitability remains relatively stable, with only a slight decrease compared to the same period last year [6][19]. - The industry is facing challenges due to sluggish demand, but companies are adopting more conservative approaches to new orders, focusing on the payment capabilities of owners and reducing capital advances [6][19]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a decrease in operating cash outflow, and while the asset-liability ratio and interest-bearing debt ratio increased compared to the beginning of the year, they showed a slight decrease on a quarter-on-quarter basis [6][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the construction industry reported a total revenue of 58,403.89 billion, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.09 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,288.62 billion, down 8.41%, with a narrowing decline of 2.98 percentage points [21][19]. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the industry decreased to 10.0%, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.21%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points [28][31]. Cash Flow - The net cash outflow from operations for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4,082.54 billion, a reduction of 719.02 billion year-on-year. The cash collection ratio increased by 3.45 percentage points to 99.24%, while the cash payment ratio increased by 3.07 percentage points to 106.04% [38][39]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors experienced a decline in revenue, with the international engineering sector seeing a drop of 25.4%, and the decoration sector down by 22.32%. However, the chemical engineering sector reported a revenue increase of over 10% [50][53]. - The gross margin for seven subsectors increased year-on-year, with the international engineering sector achieving a gross margin of 15.81%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points [54][55].

Core Viewpoint - The foundation of the Hong Kong stock market bull run remains intact, but the evolution is likely to exhibit characteristics of "oscillating upward with a gradually rising focus" rather than a rapid one-sided increase. The fundamental drivers in November are strong, emphasizing the value of high-prosperity sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to the reversal of previous favorable factors, leading to temporary liquidity pressure in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - The current net profit growth rate and price increase may appear divergent; however, the recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is strongly supported by fundamentals, with new industries experiencing explosive growth while traditional sectors lag [4]. - Industries with performance support, such as new energy, AI, non-ferrous metals, steel, and semiconductors, have seen larger price increases, while sectors with declining performance growth, like real estate, infrastructure, consumption, and finance, have seen smaller price increases [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Over 70% of companies in the Hong Kong stock market are domestic enterprises, with revenue and profits derived from the Chinese economy. The operational trends of Hong Kong companies can be inferred from A-share financial reports [4]. - The overall stability and improvement in Chinese enterprises are attributed to advanced manufacturing, particularly in technology and external demand, despite ongoing pressures in traditional economic sectors [4]. Group 3: Future Triggers for Market Upturn - Potential triggers for the next phase of the Hong Kong stock market's rise include improvements in liquidity expectations, such as a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and the cessation of balance sheet reduction by the Fed [8]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 66.9%, influenced by factors like the government shutdown and the Fed's balance sheet policies, which have led to a significant widening of the interest rate spread between SOFR and IORB [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) suggest potential inflation, driven by rising global commodity prices and the effects of loose monetary and fiscal policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - October CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% [1]. - The total import and export value in October was $520.63 billion, with exports at $305.35 billion (down 1.1% year-on-year) and imports at $215.28 billion (up 1.0% year-on-year) [6]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% in the first three quarters, with private investment down by 3.1% [4]. - Investment in high-tech sectors has seen significant growth, exceeding 20%, while traditional sectors like real estate are struggling [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - Despite loose monetary policies, consumer borrowing is declining as individuals focus on deleveraging, impacting consumption [4]. - The introduction of new tax policies for e-commerce is expected to reduce disposable income for many, further constraining consumer spending [11][14]. Employment and Production - The potential for inflation may not translate into increased demand, as companies may reduce production in response to rising costs, leading to layoffs and decreased consumer spending [9][10]. - The shift towards high-tech investments may not provide immediate employment solutions for the broader workforce, which still relies heavily on traditional industries [7]. Trade Dynamics - The tightening of tax regulations is anticipated to negatively impact export activities, with businesses facing increased tax burdens and reduced profit margins [11][13][14]. - The overall trade environment is showing signs of contraction, with exports beginning to decline significantly from October onwards [5][13].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a struggle, with many accounts still below 3500 points despite the index being stable above 4000 points, indicating a mixed performance in individual stocks and rapid shifts in market focus [2][4] - There are positive signals emerging in the market, such as a shift from sideways movement to a slow upward trend, and a clearer mainline focus with cyclical sectors like infrastructure and materials taking the lead [4][5] - The behavior of main funds has changed, with a recent shift from net outflows to inflows, suggesting a more favorable environment for investors [5][7] Group 2 - The market ecology is upgrading, with increased incremental funds and improved investor confidence, as indicated by a two-margin balance returning to 1.5 trillion and new account openings exceeding 200,000 for three consecutive weeks [7] - Investors are advised to avoid chasing trends and instead focus on cyclical stocks at low points, such as infrastructure and building materials, which are showing potential for growth [7][9] - There is an emphasis on long-term perspectives with short-term strategies, particularly in sectors like robotics, where price sensitivity and value comparisons are crucial for investment decisions [9]

Core Insights - The latest "CIIE Blue Book" highlights the integration of digital economy and real economy as a key theme, showcasing new opportunities and trends for domestic and international enterprises [1][3] - The report indicates that the cumulative intention transaction amount for the seventh CIIE exceeded $80 billion, reflecting a 2.0% increase compared to the previous year, demonstrating the strong conversion capability of the debut economy [3] Group 1 - The "CIIE Blue Book" systematically reviews the achievements of the first seven CIIEs, particularly focusing on the new opportunities presented by the seventh CIIE under the empowerment of the digital economy [1] - The report emphasizes the organic combination of technology trade and product trade, facilitating the rapid transformation of technological advancements into new driving forces for the development of the real economy [3] Group 2 - The first seven CIIEs have showcased nearly 3,000 representative new products, technologies, and services, promoting the deep integration of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and industrial internet with China's manufacturing, agriculture, and service industries [3] - In 2024, China's wind power and photovoltaic products are expected to cover over 200 countries and regions, contributing more than 80% of global photovoltaic modules and 70% of wind power equipment [5]

Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Trends - Industrial production showed signs of slowdown in October, with expected year-on-year growth of 5.3% for industrial added value [2] - Manufacturing demand has weakened due to pre-holiday demand release and international trade uncertainties, with the new orders index dropping to 48.8% [3] - The service sector experienced an increase in activity, with the business activity index rising to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related consumption [3] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Spending - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in October, a slight decline from the previous 3% [4] - The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has diminished, compounded by reduced fiscal support, leading to pressure on retail sales [5] - The restaurant and alcohol retail sectors are expected to remain under pressure due to regulatory measures affecting public spending [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-on-year from January to October, with manufacturing investment growth at 4.0% and real estate investment down by 14.1% [7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve slowly, with recent developments in US-China trade negotiations potentially boosting investor confidence [8] - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize, with new policy financial tools fully deployed, indicating a potential recovery in construction activity [12] Group 4: Export and Trade Dynamics - October export growth is expected to be 3.2%, with imports at 1.6%, reflecting a shift towards non-US markets [17] - China's share in non-US markets has increased, with significant growth in exports to Africa and Latin America [18] - The trade cycle between investment and exports to non-US countries is strengthening, particularly in manufacturing sectors [19] Group 5: Price Trends and Inflation - Consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase to 0.1% year-on-year, while producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [20] - Pork prices remain weak, contributing to overall low inflationary pressures, while oil prices are also under pressure due to global supply dynamics [21][22] - Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend, supported by holiday consumption and promotional activities [22] Group 6: Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 5.1%, with ongoing government efforts to support job creation for graduates [24] - Employment policies are focused on stabilizing job opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as migrant workers [24][25] Group 7: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - Social financing is projected to increase by 750 billion, with a decline in new loans expected at 1 trillion [26][27] - The M2 money supply growth is anticipated to decrease to 8.1%, reflecting weak demand for credit and a shift towards non-bank financial products [28] - Future monetary policy is expected to balance financial stability with support for the real economy, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than aggressive tightening [29]

Industry Overview Key Events - China-led industrial 5G international standard officially released, filling the gap in the international standard of industrial 5G [1] - The State Council approved the "Land and Space Plan for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (2021 - 2035)", with specific targets for cultivated land, ecological protection, urban development, and water use by 2035 [1] - In the first three quarters, the advertising business revenue of top advertising enterprises and institutions reached 1388.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Internet advertising maintained rapid growth, with a revenue of 712.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, accounting for 81.2% of the total advertising release revenue [1] Market Conditions - **Upstream**: Prices of iron ore and rebar declined; international oil prices and liquefied natural gas prices dropped slightly [3] - **Midstream**: PX operating rate was at a high level; power plant coal consumption remained stable; asphalt operating rate increased slightly [3] - **Downstream**: Commercial housing sales in first, second, and third-tier cities continued to decline; domestic flight frequencies increased slightly, and the film box office was in the off-season [3] Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On November 6, the spot price of corn was 2152.9 yuan/ton, up 0.27% year-on-year; the spot price of eggs was 6.2 yuan/kg, up 0.81% year-on-year; the spot price of palm oil was 8760.0 yuan/ton, down 0.66% year-on-year; the spot price of cotton was 14826.2 yuan/ton, down 0.22% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.1 yuan/kg, up 1.46% year-on-year [34] - **Nonferrous Metals**: On November 6, the spot price of copper was 85936.7 yuan/ton, down 2.36% year-on-year; the spot price of zinc was 22476.0 yuan/ton, up 1.08% year-on-year; the spot price of aluminum was 21376.7 yuan/ton, up 0.90% year-on-year; the spot price of nickel was 120750.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% year-on-year; another spot price of aluminum was 17318.8 yuan/ton, up 0.28% year-on-year [34] - **Black Metals**: On November 6, the spot price of rebar was 3133.0 yuan/ton, down 2.05% year-on-year; the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 3.51% year-on-year; the spot price of wire rod was 3305.0 yuan/ton, down 1.78% year-on-year; the spot price of glass was 14.0 yuan/square meter, up 1.30% year-on-year [34] - **Non-metals**: On November 6, the spot price of natural rubber was 14616.7 yuan/ton, down 0.90% year-on-year; the China Plastic City price index was 776.9, down 0.08% year-on-year [34] - **Energy**: On November 6, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 59.6 US dollars/barrel, down 1.46% year-on-year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 63.5 US dollars/barrel, down 2.16% year-on-year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4288.0 yuan/ton, down 1.15% year-on-year; the coal price was 824.0 yuan/ton, up 1.85% year-on-year; the spot price of PTA was 4561.1 yuan/ton, up 0.19% year-on-year [34] - **Chemicals**: On November 6, the spot price of polyethylene was 7011.7 yuan/ton, down 1.34% year-on-year; the spot price of urea was 1597.5 yuan/ton, down 1.39% year-on-year; the spot price of soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton, down 0.71% year-on-year; the national cement price index was 136.7, down 0.36% year-on-year [34] - **Real Estate**: On November 6, the building materials composite index was 111.8 points, down 1.55% year-on-year; the national concrete price index was 90.9 points, down 0.15% year-on-year [34]

Core Insights - The demand for AI applications and inference computing power is surging, leading to a significant increase in the demand for high-performance storage chips, with DRAM spot prices rising by 9.8% month-on-month, continuing an accelerating upward trend [1][5] - The semiconductor sales in China increased by 15.0% year-on-year in September, indicating further improvement in growth rates and sustained high levels of prosperity in the semiconductor and electronics industries [1][5] Industry Performance - The electronic industry continues to show high prosperity, with improved export demand [2][3] - AI computing power demand is driving the electronic industry chain's prosperity, with tight supply and demand conditions for DRAM storage prices leading to continued price increases [3][5] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) has significantly increased month-on-month, reflecting improved expectations for export demand due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [3] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales are struggling, with a 39.9% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities, and significant drops in first, second, and third-tier cities [4] - Durable goods consumption is under pressure, with a 9.0% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars and a notable decrease in air conditioning production for both domestic and foreign markets [4] - Agricultural prices are showing signs of improvement, with live pig prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month due to better supply-demand dynamics [4] Technology & Manufacturing - The demand for high-performance storage chips is being driven by the surge in AI applications and inference computing power, with DRAM spot prices continuing to rise [5] - Construction demand remains weak, influenced by environmental regulations, leading to a tightening of supply in the steel industry and a rebound in steel prices [5] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remained stable month-on-month due to tight supply ahead of safety inspections, while industrial metal prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations [7] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand is showing signs of recovery, with a 2.1% month-on-month increase in long-distance travel demand [9] - Port throughput has improved month-on-month, reflecting positive developments in export expectations [9]