Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran initially drove up precious metal prices due to increased risk - aversion, but the situation reversed quickly. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran led to energy transportation disruptions, inflation pressure, and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, causing a sharp correction in precious metal prices [1]. - In the new market paradigm, the role of traditional safe - haven assets has weakened during the Iran conflict. Due to factors such as de - globalization, de - dollarization, and AI algorithm trading, the flow of funds has changed, and the original driving logic has reversed. The prices of US Treasuries and precious metals are under pressure due to expectations of tight monetary policy [2][4]. - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the current gold bull market to peak, but gold still has value in asset allocation under the "de - dollarization" trend. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation, US inflation data, and the Fed's stance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - After the US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices first rose due to risk - aversion but then sharply corrected. On Wednesday morning, the main contracts of Shanghai silver and platinum futures fell by more than 5%, erasing the gains since late February, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell by more than 3% before rebounding in the afternoon [1]. Driving Analysis - In the past, geopolitical conflicts would drive funds to safe - haven assets, but in this US - Iran conflict, traditional safe - haven assets did not perform as expected. In the new market paradigm, funds first flow to the currencies of net oil - exporting countries, and the currencies of net oil - importing countries are under pressure [2]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may lead to a global oil supply disruption and an energy crisis, increasing the possibility of the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rates again. Market concerns about a new Fed chairman's possible tendency to shrink the balance sheet also intensify liquidity tightness, suppressing the prices of US Treasuries and precious metals [2][4]. Impact on Precious Metals - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the gold bull market to peak, but gold shows some resilience due to demand from central bank purchases and ETF investments. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation and the Fed's stance on inflation [5]. - For gold, short - term support at the 20 - day moving average should be monitored, and long positions can consider taking profits at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options for protection. For silver, with a continuous decline in exchange inventories and tight supply, but high price volatility, it may test the 60 - day moving average again, and short - selling at high prices above $95 or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. For platinum and palladium, which follow the fluctuations of gold and silver and have limited short - term upward momentum, selling out - of - the - money call options at high prices can be considered [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. However, the underlying logic of the long - term precious metals bull market remains intact. Central banks' gold purchases continue, the US inflation is sticky, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Silver is likely to have a supply - demand gap for the sixth consecutive year, and the price rebound elasticity is expected to be stronger than that of gold. [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metal Market Data - The domestic precious metal market was volatile on March 5, 2026. The settlement price of Shanghai gold rose 0.37% to 1151.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.05% to 21658 yuan/kilogram. The London gold and silver markets also rebounded after hitting the bottom. As of 16:00, the spot gold price in London was 5161.84 US dollars/ounce, and the spot silver price was 83.653 US dollars/ounce. [13] - For gold, due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the uncertain prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 1050 - 1100 yuan/gram, and the pressure level is 1250 - 1300 yuan/gram. For silver, with the same influencing factors, it is also expected to decline in the short term, with a short - selling strategy. The support level is 17000 - 18000 yuan/kilogram, and the pressure level is 23000 - 24000 yuan/kilogram. [14] 2. Precious Metal - Related Macroeconomic Data - On January 28, 2026 (EST), the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive interest - rate cuts since September 2025. Powell indicated that if "tariff inflation" peaks and falls, policy can be further relaxed, and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for the next step. [3] - On February 11, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%. [3] - US consumers expect the annual price increase in the next year to be 4.2%, the same as last month. The long - term inflation expectation for the next 5 - 10 years rose to 3.4%, higher than the previous 3.2%. The consumer confidence index in January rose to 54, and the consumer expectation index reached a five - month high. [4] - In December 2025, the US PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The core PCE increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, lower than the estimate of 3%. The annual GDP growth in 2025 was 2.2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. [4] - In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In January 2026, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. [5] - On February 20, 2026, US President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all imported goods for 150 days. On February 17, he announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, to be raised to 25% on June 1. He also said that a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. [5][7] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%. Gold bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%. Industrial and other gold consumption was 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%. The annual increase in domestic gold ETFs in 2025 was 133.118 tons, a 149.91% increase from 2024. By the end of December, the domestic gold ETF position was 247.852 tons. [6] - In January 2026, China's central bank's gold reserves were reported at 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces. This was the 15th consecutive month of gold purchase since November 2024, but the increase in January was at a low level for the 11th consecutive month. The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, and its gold reserves will increase to 700 tons. [6] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only mentions related charts. 4. Precious Metal Options Data Analysis - In the long term, central banks' gold purchases will continue, investment demand remains strong, the US debt level is rising, the US dollar's credit is damaged, and the US dollar index is expected to enter a long - term downward channel. The monetary attributes of gold and silver are gradually returning. [39] - In the short term, concerns about US tariff increases have resurfaced, the precious metals market has ended consolidation and broken upward. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. The real interest rate of US Treasury bonds may decline further. Geopolitical conflicts may intensify. [39] - For option single - leg strategies, in the long term, one can try to buy a small amount of far - month deep - out - of - the - money gold and silver call options. In the next stage, the implied volatility of precious metal options is expected to gradually rise, and one can try to construct a long - straddle strategy to bet on the increase in volatility. [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting May and going long September for glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; bullish sideways movement for gold and silver; range - bound movement for lithium carbonate [1][13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish sideways movement for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish sideways movement for polyolefins [1][25][28] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Bullish sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; bullish sideways movement for apples; sideways movement for red dates [1][39][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautiously shorting on rallies for the May contract of live pigs, bullish with caution for the July and September contracts; shorting on rallies for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish sideways movement for oils, suggesting going long on soybean and palm oils on dips [1][43][45] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. Geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic policies are key factors influencing the market trends of these futures products. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to be under pressure in the short term due to external market declines and geopolitical events, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Lacking a clear trading theme, with the market waiting for more guidance from important meetings, expected to move in a sideways pattern [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The post - Spring Festival market is generally weak and stable, with tepid trading. Downstream demand recovery is slow, and short - term trading is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. The current valuation is low, but the driving force is weak. Attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - **Glass**: The market is weak in the short term, with a recommendation to short the May contract and go long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be strongly bullish in the long term, supported by new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. In the short term, it is recommended to trade within the range of 98,000 - 106,000, while closely monitoring geopolitical events, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [15][16] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [17][18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and the weakening of the US economy, the prices are expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions may occur, and the price is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining end disturbances in Yichun [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for short - term bullish sideways movement due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is recommended to trade within the rising channel [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export growth expectations and spring maintenance, it is expected to have a strong rebound at a low valuation. Caution is advised when chasing the rise [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost support is strengthened, and it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, and the Iranian situation [31] - **Rubber**: In a state of short - term game, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to reduce positions or observe on rallies [32] - **Urea**: In a pattern of increasing supply and demand after the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be generally bullish in March, but may face pressure in the middle and late March to April. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [34][35] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, there may be a supply gap in the short term, pushing up the price. The supply and demand are in a state of high utilization rate, and it is recommended to trade within the range [36][37] - **Soda Ash**: With the increase in supply and inventory pressure, the price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [38] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Based on the global cotton supply - demand forecast, the price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern after the festival due to the recovery of consumption expectations and the strength of foreign cotton [39] - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, with some price stability and a slightly tepid trading atmosphere. The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern [41] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to move sideways [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out in a sideways pattern. The May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, while the July and September contracts can be bullish with caution [43][44] - **Eggs**: The current supply is sufficient, and the market is in a long - term grinding bottom stage. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [45] - **Corn**: The short - term price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs at high levels [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to follow the movement of US soybeans. It is recommended to short on rallies [47][48] - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern following international crude oil. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils on dips [49][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] - Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] - For the chemical industry, short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] - For the agricultural products, the short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk; peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement; cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; soybean meal and soybean oil may fluctuate in a range; rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term; rapeseed oil should pay attention to the upper price platform pressure; the pig price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation; egg prices may continue to run at a low level, and medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - For the metals, Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern; Shanghai aluminum operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; alumina supply is expected to be in excess, but there is support near the cost line; cast aluminum alloy prices are strongly linked to Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to cost and demand marginal changes; lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend; industrial silicon may not have a trend market in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended; polysilicon trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended [25][26][27][29][30][31][32] - For the black metals, stainless steel may fluctuate in the short term; steel prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be strongly volatile; iron ore may maintain a bearish trend, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand repair rhythm; coking coal and coke may maintain a weak - volatile pattern in the short term [33][34][35][36][37][38][39] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: In 2026, the government work report set the tone of implementing a more proactive and effective macro - policy. The economy is in a mild recovery stage, with rising prices but a weak manufacturing PMI, indicating that the endogenous economic power is still being repaired. The low - interest - rate environment supports the valuation of equity assets, and the expected PPI recovery is beneficial to the cyclical sectors and the overall corporate profit expectations [3] - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the leading gainers included non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics, while the leading decliners included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and building decoration. The current market sector rotation shows a clear new - quality productivity orientation, with funds flowing from traditional cyclical, financial, and real - estate sectors to science - and - technology innovation, high - end manufacturing, and upstream material sectors [3] - **Reference View**: Main broad - based indices may enter a stage of bottom - seeking and stabilization [3] Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The US ADP employment in February added 63,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000, strengthening the resilience of the labor market. The Middle East military conflict has entered the sixth day, causing concerns about energy supply and inflation transmission [4] - **Market Analysis**: On March 5, the Asian session of spot gold recovered part of the previous day's losses. The gold market is in a game between geopolitical risk - aversion demand and changes in monetary policy expectations. Strong employment data has led to a re - pricing of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The strong US dollar index suppresses the valuation of gold [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Gold prices are expected to show high - volatility range - bound movement in the short term. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation and the upcoming non - farm payroll report [4][5] Silver - **External Price and Inventory**: The silver market performs weaker than gold. The COMEX registered deliverable silver inventory has dropped to a very low level of 88.77 million ounces, a significant decrease of about 30% compared to early January. China has implemented export controls on silver since January [6] - **Market Analysis**: Silver presents a pattern of "physical shortage support" and "industrial demand concerns" intertwined. If the inventory level further decreases, it may strengthen the physical - level support. Geopolitical conflicts may suppress manufacturing demand [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Silver is expected to follow the gold's trend in the short term, and its downside space may be relatively limited. Attention should be paid to COMEX inventory changes and global manufacturing PMI data [6][7] Chemical Industry PTA - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5,805 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 32 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton) [8] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict has pushed up the cost price. The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The average PTA processing interval in China is 416.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.13% and a year - on - year increase of 61.06%. The device start - up rate has rebounded to 76.53% (+6.17%). The industry shows a pattern of inventory accumulation, and the demand has been repaired after the festival [8] - **Reference View**: Short - term attention should be paid to the continuity of geopolitical disturbances and inventory pressure. The medium - term fundamentals are strong, but technical over - buying requires caution against correction risks [8] Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,170 yuan/ton (+196 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 14 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton) [9] - **Market Analysis**: After the festival, the production has steadily increased. The total production has reached 42.98 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. The coal - chemical production is 15.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.96%. The port inventory in East China has increased. The demand has increased, but the high port inventory still suppresses the price [9] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the cost - side oil price trend and the downstream resumption of work rhythm [9] Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [10] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of polyethylene devices in China has decreased slightly. The demand side shows that the overall start - up rate of downstream enterprises is 18.22%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises is 57.97 million tons. The futures price has risen for four consecutive days due to the Iran situation. In the short term, polyethylene will mainly fluctuate in a range, and there may be upward space after inventory digestion and full resumption of work by downstream enterprises [10] - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [10] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1188 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [11] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall start - up rate of soda ash is 86.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and the production is 80.70 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.61 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average. The market may enter a stage of game between weak reality and external factors [11] - **Reference View**: The futures market rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on bottom - range fluctuations [11] Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1023 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions [13] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the start - up rate of float glass is 71.19%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.58%, and the weekly production is 103.84 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13 million tons. The inventory has continued to accumulate. The terminal demand is weak, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be disturbed by global energy price surges and the two sessions [13] - **Reference View**: The futures market fluctuated narrowly yesterday. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bottom - range fluctuation strategy [13] Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, and Hebei have different fluctuations [14] - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the methanol main contract MA605 has decreased. The port inventory has decreased slightly. The domestic methanol industry start - up rate is high, but the demand from MTO and MTBE devices and traditional downstream industries is weak. The geopolitical trading logic and logistics uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz increase market uncertainty [14] - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline due to the ebb of geopolitical premium or oil price fluctuations. Track the resumption progress of Iranian devices, port inventory reduction, and the increase in MTO device load [14] Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China, and Huanghuai are provided [15] - **Market Analysis**: The February USDA supply - demand report has limited adjustments to US corn data. Domestically, the corn quality in the Northeast is good, but the short - term supply is tight due to weather and state - reserve rotation. If the weather warms up, the market supply may increase, and downstream enterprises have limited willingness to accept high - priced corn [15] - **Reference View**: The short - term upward space of corn is limited, and there may be a correction risk [15] Peanut - **Spot Price**: Peanut prices are mainly stable, with individual regions having slight adjustments. The market trading is not active [16] - **Market Analysis**: After the Lantern Festival, the market trading is gradually recovering, and the supply may increase with the temperature rise. The demand from small food factories has not started, but some large oil mills have raised the purchase price. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [16] - **Reference View**: Peanut futures are expected to maintain range - bound movement, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Cotton - **Spot Information**: The China Cotton Spot Price Index (CC3128B) is 16,583 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 16,396 yuan/ton [17] - **Market Analysis**: The US Department of Agriculture expects a decline in production and ending inventory in China and the US, and the macro - environment is favorable for demand. The new cotton planting will start in March, and the cotton planting area is expected to decline in the long term. The downstream enterprises are resuming work, and the peak consumption season is coming [17] - **Reference View**: Cotton prices will fluctuate in a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [17] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions vary [18] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the external market trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and biodiesel - stimulated domestic demand. South American soybeans are in the harvest season, and the market expects a bumper harvest. Domestically, high costs and abundant supply are in a game, and the downstream replenishment is limited [18] - **Reference View**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a range, and cautious operation is recommended [18] Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of soybean oil in different regions have slightly increased [19] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, geopolitical conflicts and bio - fuel policies have pushed up the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is entering the off - season, and the market is dominated by macro - emotions [19] - **Reference View**: Soybean oil has stopped rising and is adjusting. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19] Rapeseed Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of imported powder meal in Macong Port is RM2605 + 40 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [20] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the 100% tariff on Canadian oil cakes is optimistic for US soybean demand, but the pressure from Brazilian soybean harvest may suppress the price. The supply is expected to recover, and the downstream demand is weak [20] - **Reference View**: The 2605 contract of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [20] Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Market**: The basis price of imported and pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang is OI05 + 450 yuan/ton, and the basis remains unchanged [21] - **Market Analysis**: The US - Iran conflict and the expected US bio - fuel policy have driven up the price of domestic vegetable oils. The increase in the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has limited impact. The current market is in the off - season, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [21] - **Reference View**: For the 2605 contract of rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the upper price platform pressure and risk prevention [21] Pig - **Spot Market**: The average price of ternary hybrid pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic pig market continues to be weak. The supply is abundant due to pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter and continuous release of production capacity. The demand is weak as consumers are still consuming pre - holiday stocks, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The pig price is under pressure in the near term [22][23] - **Reference View**: Attention should be paid to the farming side's slaughter situation [23] Egg - **Spot Market**: The average egg price in the main production areas has decreased [24] - **Market Analysis**: The previous - period replenishment was relatively low, and the new - laying pressure is not large. The egg - laying hen inventory is still declining. The culling rhythm of old hens is slow, but the farming side's culling willingness may increase as the egg price falls. The demand is weak after the end of stocking, and the egg price may continue to run at a low level [24] - **Reference View**: Medium - long - term attention should be paid to the farming side's replenishment and culling situation [24] Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The spot price of East China copper is 101,575 (+145) yuan/ton, with a premium of 445 [25] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side pressure is significant, with the domestic social inventory reaching a historical high. The copper concentrate processing fee is in a deep negative range, indicating a tight supply at the mine end. The demand shows a structural differentiation, with the downstream processing link weak but the power grid investment and new - energy - related orders strong. The short - term price is suppressed by high inventory and spot discounts, but there is support from geopolitical risk premium and post - Lantern - Festival resumption of work [25] - **Reference View**: It is resistant to decline when the sector sentiment is weak. Aggressive investors can participate at low prices when the sentiment is right, while conservative investors can wait and see [25] Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price is 25,082 yuan/ton, up 706, with a discount of 140 [25] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the instability of overseas aluminum supply, boosting the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the supply is rigid. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased [26] - **Reference View**: Operation requires caution, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [26] Alumina - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina is 2,675 yuan/ton, up 4, with a discount of 125 [27] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of bauxite has increased, and the domestic alumina production capacity is being restored. The supply is expected to be in excess, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has continued to increase [27] - **Reference View**: In the short term, the long - and short - term forces are temporarily balanced due to overseas and domestic supply - side disturbances, but the supply - excess expectation remains unchanged [28] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy is 24,30

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply side of the coking coal market remains in a loose state, with production capacity basically restored to the pre - holiday normal level. However, the downstream demand has not recovered after the Spring Festival. The steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts this year, and the overall price trend of coking coal is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream coking enterprises has increased slightly, the willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale is not strong. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: After the Spring Festival, there have been continuous calls for price cuts in the market, and most participants are bearish. The support of costs for coke prices has weakened, and the first - round price cut of coke is likely to be implemented soon. The supply of coke remains sufficient, and the inventory in most coking enterprises has increased significantly. Considering the weak steel price and the fact that the resumption of work and production of steel mills has not met expectations, it is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views** - **焦煤** - **基本面**: The supply is loose, and the demand has not recovered, with a neutral outlook [2]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1175, and the basis is 69.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons from last week, which is bullish [2]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main position of coking coal is net long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. - **预期**: It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **利多因素**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - **利空因素**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. - **焦炭** - **基本面**: There are continuous calls for price cuts, and the cost support is weak. The first - round price cut is likely to be implemented, with a bearish outlook [6]. - **基差**: The spot price is 1620, and the basis is - 56.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [6]. - **库存**: The total sample inventory is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week, which is bullish [6]. - **盘面**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **主力持仓**: The main position of coke is net long, with long positions increasing, which is bullish [6]. - **预期**: It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - **利多因素**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **利空因素**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on March 5th, including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from various ports and regions [9]. **Inventory** - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [25]. - **钢厂库存**: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from last week [30].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has fallen below the 20 - day moving average again and fluctuates around it. Supply is sufficient with increasing production in January and rising inventories. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line is supported and slightly shifted upwards. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory has increased significantly. If inventory digestion is ineffective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with a decrease in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless steel prices have risen. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless steel inventory continues to rise. It is neutral, but the basis is bullish. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 fluctuates widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 5th, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 136,270, down 1,140 from March 4th; the LME nickel was at 17,215, down 335; the stainless steel main contract was at 14,115, down 105. The nickel index was at 135,750, down 1,850, and the cold - rolled coil index was at 13,726, down 123 [7]. - **Spot prices**: On March 5th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 140,350, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 143,650, down 450; 1 imported nickel was at 136,800, down 250; nickel beans were at 139,450, down 200. Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi was at 15,100, up 50; in Foshan it was at 15,100, unchanged; in Hangzhou it was at 15,100, up 50; in Shanghai it was at 15,150, up 50 [7]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 27th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively. On March 5th, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons (unchanged), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,567 tons, down 65 tons, and the total inventory was 341,117 tons, down 65 tons [9][10]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 27th, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons. On March 5th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,075 tons, an increase of 544 tons [14][15]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,085.81 yuan per nickel point, up 0.24; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [18]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,151 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 14,298 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 18,009 yuan [20]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The import price was converted to 134,557 yuan per ton [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of uncertainty and volatility, affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control and market changes [22][61][75] Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market rebounded hesitantly. On Thursday, the stock index rebounded across the board, but the performance of different indexes was differentiated. The trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. It is expected to be high - volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [20][21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The fiscal policy is stable, and the market sentiment is average. It is recommended to hold long positions in the T - contract lightly and pay attention to the information from the press conference [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Macro - disturbances increase, and the domestic soybean and meal inventories are relatively high. It is recommended to have a bearish view, reduce the spread of MRM09, and use seagull put options [26][27] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates and adjusts, and the domestic sugar price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for Zhengzhou sugar and wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][32][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The biodiesel profit improves, and the oils fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to hold a short - term volatile view, consider reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and wait and see for options [35][36][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn, hold a high - volatile view for the 05 corn, and expand the spread between 05 corn and starch [39][40][41] - **Hogs**: The supply is stable, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the short straddle strategy [42][44] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanuts, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [45][46][48] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it enters the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the June contract, wait and see for arbitrage and options [49][50][51] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is firm. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high for the May contract and wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][55] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support below and fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, wait and see for arbitrage and options [57][58][59] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: During the "Two Sessions", the steel price continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to maintain a volatile view, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread, and wait and see for options [61][62] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, but the trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [65] - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts increase, and the ore price fluctuates. It is recommended to hold a volatile view, wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69] - **Ferroalloys**: The profit - loss ratio decreases, and it is recommended to partially take profit on long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [70][71][72] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is changeable, and gold and silver are under pressure. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75][76] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict continues, and the precious metals maintain a volatile pattern. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, wait and see for palladium, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [77][78][80] - **Copper**: It fluctuates in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82] - **Alumina**: The overseas alumina price falls, and there is short - term production reduction in China. It is recommended to go short on rallies [84][85][86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts affect the Qatari electrolytic aluminum plant, and the Middle - East situation is uncertain. It is recommended to fluctuate widely with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [87][88] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][92][93] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [94][95][96] - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy high and sell low within the range, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99] - **Nickel**: The macro - situation weakens, dragging down the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then buy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [100][101] - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. It is recommended to wait for the macro - sentiment to stabilize and then buy, wait and see for arbitrage [103] - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply - side policies. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and try shorting after the manufacturer hedges [104][105] - **Polysilicon**: The spot transaction price declines, and it is weak in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious about liquidity risks, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk preference decreases, and funds continue to withdraw. It is recommended to buy after the price stabilizes on a pullback, wait and see for arbitrage and options [109][110][111] - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the tin price may fluctuate and consolidate. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment, wait and see for options [113][114][115] Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Iran's blockade only targets ships from the US, Israel, and Europe, and the warring parties' stances are still tough. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the 04 contract in the off - season and then wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage [116][117][119] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, supporting the rent at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [119][120][122] - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon trading is in a dull period, and many industries in the EU support the carbon market. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - issuance of CEA2025 quotas and the detailed rules of the new carry - over policy in China, and the geopolitical conflicts and policy trends in the EU [122][125][126] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical news is changeable, and US oil breaks through and rises. It is recommended to be bullish, wait and see for arbitrage, and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [129][130] - **Asphalt**: Under the background of geopolitical conflicts, the cost fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks, wait and see for arbitrage and options [131][132][133] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and pay attention to short - term geopolitical fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [134][135][136] - **LPG**: The supply is gradually tightening, and the freight rate soars. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [137][138] - **Natural Gas**: The market uncertainty is extremely high, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see, wait and see for arbitrage and options [140][141][142] - **PX & PTA**: PX reduces production preventively. It is recommended to be bullish on the aromatics sector, conduct positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [145][146] - **BZ & EB**: Refineries reduce production preventively, affecting the supply of aromatics. It is recommended to be bullish on the aromatics sector, conduct positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [147][148][149] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants stop production, and Middle - East imports are affected. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations [150][151] - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the cost and strengthens. It is recommended to follow the cost - side strengthening, conduct 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [153][154][155] - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load gradually recovers. It is recommended to follow the cost - side strengthening, wait and see for arbitrage and options [157][158] - **Propylene**: The main raw material price rises. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation, the propylene market is active, and the price is bullish in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160] - **Plastic PP**: PP production increases. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L2605 and PP2605 contracts, set stop - losses, hold short positions in the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread, set stop - losses, and wait and see for options [161][162][163] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price fluctuates. It is recommended to be bullish with fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [165][166] - **PVC**: It follows the price increase firmly. It is recommended to go long on dips, not chase high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [168][169] - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to be bullish with short - term fluctuations, take profit on the short - glass and long - soda - ash spread, and wait and see for options [170][171][172] - **Glass**: The price fluctuates. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell call options, take profit on the short - glass and long - soda - ash spread, and wait and see for options [173][174][175] - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [176][177] - **Urea**: It fluctuates. It is recommended to conduct range trading, wait and see for arbitrage and options [179][180] - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction is slightly alleviated. It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [181][182][183] - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [184][185][186] - **Logs**: The overseas price rises, and the spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to buy on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [186][187][188] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The increase in electricity consumption in the rubber and plastics industry narrows. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU05 and NR05 contracts, pay attention to the support levels, wait and see for arbitrage and options [189][190][191] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production starts to increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR05 contract, set stop - losses, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread, set stop - losses, and wait and see for options [194][195][196]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Iran situation has escalated, affecting the domestic futures market and global energy prices. There are uncertainties in the global economic situation due to geopolitical conflicts [6][7][8]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are rising, and some are falling, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and international situation [4][11][13]. - The A - share market has a technical rebound, but the follow - up strength is not clear. The market is affected by external geopolitical risks and domestic policies [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 6, 2026, compared with March 5, 2026, the prices of some chemical products changed. For example, the price of coking coal decreased by 14.0 to 1,091.50, with a decline of 1.266%; the price of natural rubber increased by 15.0 to 16,570.00, with an increase of 0.091% [4]. 3.2 Macro - news - **Diplomatic Events**: China urges relevant parties to stop military actions to avoid regional turmoil. The US continues military operations in Iran, and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a significant increase in European natural gas prices and oil prices [6][7]. - **Market Reactions**: On March 2, the domestic futures market reacted strongly. Some futures contracts hit the daily limit, and exchanges and banks issued risk warnings. The US government's tariff refund issue has entered the substantive process [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 5, the sugar price rose slightly. The supply side has both pressure and cost support. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern, with the upper limit of 5350 yuan and the lower limit of 5286 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 5, the corn price rose slightly. The supply side is supported, but there may be selling pressure in mid - to late March. It is recommended to watch carefully, with the upper pressure level at 2400 yuan and the lower support at 2360 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 5, the peanut price rose slightly. The supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, with the upper pressure at 7950 - 8000 yuan and the lower support at 7850 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average price of live pigs continued to be weak, with an oversupply situation, and the futures market is still in the process of finding the bottom [11][13]. - **Egg**: The national egg spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The inventory pressure has been released, and it is recommended to try long with a small position [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube price is stable in the short term, with the market slowly resuming after the Spring Festival. The disk is mainly in the bottom shock, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 5, the cotton price rose slightly. The supply side is supported, but the demand side needs to be verified. It is recommended to arrange long positions at low prices, with the upper pressure at 15450 - 15500 yuan and the lower support at 15150 - 15200 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory of caustic soda is at a high level. Due to the improvement of export expectations caused by the overseas chlor - alkali plant's production reduction, it is recommended to treat it with a short - term rebound idea [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market inquiry willingness is low, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the inventory at the port is high. The short - term fundamentals face certain pressure and are slightly oscillating weakly [13]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance. It is recommended to short at high prices, and pay attention to the support at 4200 yuan [14]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable with a slight decline. The daily production is expected to fluctuate around 22 - 22.3 tons. The agricultural demand has support, but there are also factors suppressing the price [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the hawkish signal of the Federal Reserve and other factors, the prices of gold and silver are in a high - level shock, with large fluctuations [14]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The mid - term logic of the copper and aluminum market remains unchanged. The Middle East situation may have a greater impact on aluminum. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic inventory pressure and overseas US dollar rebound pressure [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand pattern has marginally changed, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed. It is expected to remain at a low level [15]. 3.3.4 Steel - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The production of rebar is increasing, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory is accumulating. The production and demand of hot - rolled coils are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation speed is accelerating. The steel price is expected to maintain a range shock [15]. 3.3.5 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The rise of ferroalloys slowed down on Thursday. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, but due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors, the price fluctuations of commodities with high import dependence are intensified. It is recommended to go long on dips, but not to chase high [15]. 3.3.6 Lithium Carbonate - On March 5, the price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply side is affected by policies, and the demand side has a strong willingness to buy at low prices. It is recommended to arrange long positions at low prices, with the upper pressure at 160,000 yuan and the lower support at 150,000 yuan [15]. 3.3.7 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 5, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock index options changed. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short volatility [17]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a technical rebound on March 5, but the support of trading volume is not strong. The follow - up strength is not clear. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - volume signal of mainstream broad - based ETFs and conduct low - buying and rolling operations on stock index futures [17][18].

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are not provided [2] - The latest yield of China's 1 - year government bond is 1.280 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.264, South Africa zar 16.654, South Korean won 1482.900, Thai baht 31.595, Malaysian ringgit 3.945 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore 6.911, off - shore 6.918, middle rate 6.901, 12 - month NDF 6.775 [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6830.710, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47954.740, Nasdaq 22748.990, etc. [2] - The latest values of credit bond indices: US investment - grade 3570.840, Eurozone investment - grade 267.008, etc. [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares closed at 4108.57 with a 0.64% increase, CSI 300 at 4647.69 with a 0.98% increase, etc. [3] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.18 with a 0.07环比 change, S&P 500 is 26.70 with a - 0.15环比 change [3] - Fund flow: A - shares' latest value is - 630.25, main board is - 468.98, etc. [3] - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 23900.38 with a 242.84环比 change [4] - Main contract basis: IF is - 18.69 with a - 0.40% basis, IH is - 1.45 with a - 0.05% basis, IC is - 53.57 with a - 0.64% basis [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 is 108.55 with a 0.01% increase, TF2303 is 106.06 with a 0.01% increase, etc. [4] - Fund rates: R001 is 1.3504% with a - 15.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.4987% with a 0.00 BP daily change, SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5580% with a 0.00 BP daily change [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Gold**: The market is waiting for the non - farm data. Poland plans to sell its gold reserves for defense financing, causing the gold price to fall. The US and European stock markets declined, US bond yields rose, and the US dollar index increased. The COMEX gold futures dropped 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce. The short - term gold price was affected by Poland's potential gold sale, and although the feasibility is uncertain, it will still put pressure on the price. Geopolitical concerns have cooled, but inflation concerns have increased. Attention should be paid to today's non - farm data [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price also fell as the market awaited non - farm data and due to Poland's potential gold sale. The COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. The risk preference is low, and the safe - haven sentiment still provides some support, but the silver price is weak [5]. - **Macro - logic**: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support. For silver, regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment towards silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield rose 4.04 basis points to 4.136%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.04, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US and European stock markets declined, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index went up, and the COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3 (spot at a discount to futures), the gold futures warehouse receipts are 105060 kg and unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is downward, the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, the main net position is long but with a decrease in long positions. The expected events for the day include the US February non - farm data, the euro - zone Q4 GDP revised value, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 569 (spot at a discount to futures), the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 22102 kg to 272721 kg, the 20 - day moving average is downward, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main net position is long but with a decrease in long positions [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 15:00, there will be a press conference on the economic theme of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress; at 18:00, the euro - zone Q4 GDP revised value will be released, and ECB Governing Council member Wunsch will speak; at 21:30, the US February non - farm payrolls change, unemployment rate, and January retail sales data will be announced, and ECB Executive Board member Cipollone will attend the meeting of the Executive Committee of the European Banking Federation (EBF); at 23:00, the US December business inventory data will be released; at 23:15, San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will participate in a panel discussion on "The Value of Private - Sector Data for US Monetary Policy Making"; at 00:30 the next day, Kansas City Fed President Schmid will talk about monetary policy and the economic outlook, and Fed Governor Waller will speak on CNBC; at 01:00 the next day, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will speak; at 02:20 the next day, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will speak; at 02:30 the next day, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak about the US dollar's safe - haven status, and RBA Deputy Governor Bullock will speak [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 3, the gold futures warehouse receipts are 105060 kg and unchanged. The mid - term election brings continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support [4][9]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 569, the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 22102 kg to 272721 kg. The regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment towards silver prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, potential Fed easing, and support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, as well as low spot inventory and a hot supply - shortage game [5][12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.79% to 155,716, short positions increased by 0.64% to 42,969, and the net position decreased by 6.70% to 112,747. The SPDR gold ETF holdings have turned to a decrease [4][37][42]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.20% to 273,112, short positions decreased by 2.44% to 271,108, and the net position increased by 47.14% to 2,004. The silver ETF holdings decreased slightly [5][40][44].