能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

美股上半年大跌大涨，下半年或将强势开局但能否持久？特朗普："不延期 将给各国指定税率"，高盛 提醒美股财报季将受关税考验。 ①美股上半年大跌大涨 下半年或将强势开局但能否持久？ 美股隔夜收高，纳指与标普指数再创新高。在经历诸多逆风后，美股三大股指在6月和上半年均录得涨 幅。7月通常是美股的强劲月份，但分析师提醒投资者注意宏观经济风险。一方面，"大而美"法案目前 进入关键投票阶段，但前景不明，特朗普希望在7月4日前通过法案，该法案虽然有利于经济长期增长， 但短期可能因增加赤字支出、提高债务上限等对市场产生负面影响。另一方面，7月9日"关税暂缓期"到 期，关税问题将重新成为焦点，可能给美国经济、通胀和企业带来压力。此外，7月中旬开启的美股财 报季也至关重要，"科技七巨头"预计将在7月底至8月初公布最新财报，如果业绩让投资者失望，将拖累 市场。 评论员徐广语：历史数据显示，道指、标普500和纳指在7月的平均涨幅分别为1.5%、1.7%和0.9%，该 月通常是美股表现强劲的时期。但需警惕政策与经济风险：1）如果"大而美"法案通过，美国财政部可 能需大规模发债补充账户资金。2）关于关税延期的不确定性。3）关键数据：7月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Beta factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to the overall market returns, indicating its systematic risk[29] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the covariance between the stock's returns and the market returns - Divide this covariance by the variance of the market returns - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the return of the stock and $R_m$ is the return of the market[29] - **Evaluation**: The Beta factor is a widely used measure of risk, indicating how much a stock's price is expected to move relative to the market[29] 2. Factor Name: Liquidity Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Liquidity factor assesses the ease with which a stock can be traded without affecting its price, reflecting the market's depth and breadth[29] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily trading volume - Calculate the bid-ask spread - Combine these metrics to form a composite liquidity score - Formula: $ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Average Daily Volume}}{\text{Bid-Ask Spread}} $[29] - **Evaluation**: The Liquidity factor is crucial for understanding the trading costs and potential price impact of large trades[29] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Quality Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Profitability Quality factor evaluates the financial health and earnings quality of a company, focusing on sustainable and high-quality earnings[29] - **Construction Process**: - Analyze various financial ratios such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and profit margins - Combine these ratios into a composite score - Formula: $ \text{Profitability Quality} = \frac{\text{ROE} + \text{ROA} + \text{Profit Margin}}{3} $[29] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying companies with strong and sustainable earnings, which are likely to perform well in the long term[29] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **IR**: 0.45[29] - **Annualized Return**: 8.5%[29] - **Volatility**: 12.3%[29] 2. Liquidity Factor - **IR**: 0.38[29] - **Annualized Return**: 7.8%[29] - **Volatility**: 11.5%[29] 3. Profitability Quality Factor - **IR**: 0.52[29] - **Annualized Return**: 9.2%[29] - **Volatility**: 10.8%[29] Additional Factors and Their Performance 1. Factor Name: Skewness Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Skewness factor measures the asymmetry of the return distribution, indicating the potential for extreme positive or negative returns[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the third moment of the return distribution - Normalize by the cube of the standard deviation - Formula: $ \text{Skewness} = \frac{E[(R - \mu)^3]}{\sigma^3} $ where $R$ is the return, $\mu$ is the mean return, and $\sigma$ is the standard deviation[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding the tail risks and potential for extreme outcomes in the return distribution[33] 2. Factor Name: Position Change Factor - **Construction Idea**: The Position Change factor tracks changes in the holdings of large institutional investors, indicating their sentiment and market positioning[33] - **Construction Process**: - Monitor the quarterly filings of institutional investors - Calculate the net change in positions for each stock - Formula: $ \text{Position Change} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Holdings} - \text{Previous Quarter Holdings}}{\text{Previous Quarter Holdings}} $[33] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides insights into the buying and selling activities of major market players, which can influence stock prices[33] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Skewness Factor - **IR**: 0.42[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.1%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.9%[33] 2. Position Change Factor - **IR**: 0.47[33] - **Annualized Return**: 8.7%[33] - **Volatility**: 11.2%[33]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The Iranian parliament has decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, following a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities [1][3] - The U.S. military's operation involved 125 aircraft and targeted three major Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the region [1][3] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 8%, exceeding $96 per barrel, as traders anticipated a potential blockade of the Strait [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Energy Supply - Asian countries, particularly China, Japan, and South Korea, heavily rely on the Strait for oil imports, with China importing 5 million barrels daily, which constitutes half of its oil imports from the Middle East [3][5] - If the Strait is closed, these countries may have to rely on strategic oil reserves, significantly impacting their energy security [5] Group 3: Shipping and Insurance Costs - Major shipping companies, including Maersk, have initiated emergency plans, rerouting over 50 oil tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel distance by 7,000 kilometers and shipping costs by 250% [5][7] - War insurance costs for tankers have skyrocketed, with additional millions required per vessel [5] Group 4: Economic Consequences and Predictions - If oil prices stabilize above $120 per barrel, a global recession similar to the 1973 oil crisis could occur, as warned by Deutsche Bank [11] - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with European manufacturers predicting a reduction of 100,000 vehicles per day if the blockade lasts over two weeks [13] Group 5: Strategic Implications for Major Players - Russia stands to benefit significantly from rising oil prices, gaining an additional $300 million in revenue for every $10 increase in oil prices [8] - U.S. shale oil producers are also expected to profit, with a 12% increase in drilling activity reported in a week due to rising prices [8] Group 6: Military and Security Developments - The U.S. Fifth Fleet has entered a state of full readiness, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed its navy, indicating a potential escalation in military conflict [13][15] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk of becoming a flashpoint for broader military conflict, with significant implications for global supply chains [9][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, spread, and ratio data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from June 23 to June 27, 2025, aiming to provide data support for investors' arbitrage operations. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from June 23 to June 27, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 192.4 yuan/ton to - 181.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 23 to June 27, 2025, increased from - 42.70 yuan/ton to - 21.54 yuan/ton; for fuel oil, the basis on June 26 was 43.90 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt decreased from 0.1520 on June 24 to 0.1411 on June 27 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., show different trends from June 23 to June 27, 2025. For example, the basis of natural rubber increased from - 150 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread data of different chemicals in different periods (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are also presented, like the 5 - 1 spread of methanol is - 94 yuan/ton [11]. - Cross - product spread data such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are provided, with the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 27 being 2397 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of rebar increased from 75 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [16]. - Spread data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of iron ore is - 16.5 yuan/ton [16]. - Cross - product data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 27 being 4.18 [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., in the domestic market from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of copper increased from 130 yuan/ton to 420 yuan/ton [24]. - LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper on June 27 is 240.67 [31]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented, with relevant data trends and values for different metals [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different changes. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 increased from - 170 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [41]. - Spread data of different agricultural products in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 is 19 yuan/ton [39]. - Cross - product data such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented, with the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 27 being 1.74 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 23 to June 27, 2025, show different trends. For example, the basis of CSI 300 decreased from 60.50 to 45.16 [49]. - Spread data of different stock index futures in different periods are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 spread of CSI 300 is - 11.2 [49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped significantly, with a decline of over $30, as geopolitical risks decreased and market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, calling him "terrible," and indicated he is considering three to four candidates for the Fed chair position, which may affect market confidence in the dollar [1] - Since Trump's presidency, the dollar index has fallen over 11%, despite the Fed not cutting interest rates, raising concerns about Trump's potential impact on the U.S. economy and institutions [1] - Market strategist Peng Cheng noted that while Powell remains in his position, Trump's pressure on the Fed raises doubts about its independence, potentially diminishing trust in the dollar [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, breaking below mid-term moving average support, with a potential short-term rebound expected [1] Oil Market - Oil prices remained stable with minimal fluctuations, but a lack of buying pressure suggests significant upward resistance [2] - Investors should monitor three potential risks: OPEC+ production increase plans, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S.-EU tariff negotiations [2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with June's output expected to rise by 411,000 barrels per day, maintaining the same increase as May [2] - The IEA forecasts a global oil supply surplus by 2025, even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, with positive signals from Iran and Israel regarding conflict resolution [2] - The outlook for U.S.-EU trade negotiations is pessimistic, with the EU preparing for various scenarios, including a potential breakdown in talks, which could negatively impact the global economy [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, indicating a correction from previous declines, with a focus on the $66.60 resistance level [2] Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant increase, forming a breakout from a trading range, with a high probability of reaching new highs in the short term [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates an upward continuation pattern, with attention on the $5 support level [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong bullish momentum, but there is a risk of overextension [5] - The 4-hour chart suggests that the structure is nearing completion, with prices being significantly overbought, indicating a potential for a pullback [5] - Short-term focus should be on the resistance level around 40,400 [5]