Core Insights - The report highlights that the US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, indicating a potential recovery in trade relations and a favorable environment for market performance in May 2025 [3][5]. - The focus is on growth themes and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds, with particular attention to the potential rebound in the supply chains related to Apple, real estate, and consumer sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The US plans to modify tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending 24% tariffs for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, certain tariffs imposed on US goods will be canceled [3][5]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, indicating a potential thaw in the trade conflict [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "red May," suggesting that external easing expectations are becoming a reality, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market [5]. - The focus is on growth catalysts and sectors that are currently underrepresented in fund allocations, with a specific emphasis on the potential for rebounds in previously oversold sectors [5]. Sector Focus - Short-term opportunities are identified in the supply chains related to Apple and real estate, which may experience a rebound due to the favorable negotiation outcomes [5]. - Mid-term attention is directed towards manufacturing exports, high-end consumer goods, and cultural services, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [5].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 观 金 融 周 报 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 央行超预期降准和降息，提振国内市场情绪 ——股指期货周报 [table_main] 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3846.16 点，较前值上升 2.00%；累计成交 10176 亿元，日均成交 2035 亿元，较前值下降 141 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17919 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是国防军工(6.44%)、通信(5.43%)、 银行(3.98%)、机械(3.82%)、电力设备及新能源(3.80%)；表现较差的前五名行 业分别是医药(0.98%)、农林牧渔(0.84%)、电子元器件(0.72%)、房地产(0.65%)、 消费者服务(0.30%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-5.96 点、-0.41 点、 -19.32 点、-25.88 点。前一周同期值分别为-18.57 点、-5.96 点、-41.62 点、-44.72 点。 跨期价差行情：IF 合约次月-当月、当季-次季、次季-当季价差分别为-31.60 点、-6 ...

报 告 正 文 关税下调大超预期，当下加征多少？ 根据联合声明的内容，美国对我国征收的125%对等关税，幅度降至初始的34%。其中10%的基础关税与其 他国家一样征收，剩下24%的关税在90天内暂停实施，等待后续谈判。由于此前美方已经豁免了超2成中国商品的对等关税，则实际关税下降幅 度会更少一些。 当下我国对美总出口关税水平约41%，包括截至去年底的11%实际关税，今年2-3月因芬太尼问题加征的20%，以及最新对等关税的10%。如果 考虑美国额外豁免的部分商品，则整体关税水平降至38%。 直接出口代替转口，抢出口或仍持续。 由于我国与他国，对美出口关税差额将大幅缩小，则转口贸易规模或出现逆转，贸易流将转换为直接对 美出口。同时考虑到特朗普贸易政策多变，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，那么抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 年内看好出口，国内有何影响？ 年内我们看好出口，一方面，对等关税加征幅度回落，利好直接对美出口；另一方面，俄乌冲突缓和，欧洲经 济重铸也将进一步拉动我国出口，我们在《欧洲振兴，如何带动我国出口？——掘金欧洲系列之二》已外发报告中测算，欧洲振兴或至少拉动 我国出口1个百分点。不过，外部 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a real GDP growth target of 8 percent for 2025, supported by increased domestic consumption and investment [7][30]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment [2][14]. - Merchandise exports growth slowed to 10.6 percent in Q1-2025 from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, influenced by high base effects and potential global demand slowdown [3][15]. - FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, while FDI disbursements remained resilient at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year [3][21]. - Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent in March 2024, with significant contributions from apparel, electronics, and machinery [4][17]. - Retail sales surged by 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly two years, supported by a 9.5 percent increase in average monthly income [4][23]. - Inflation rose to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, driven by food and housing prices, but remains below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth reached 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, with consumption and investment growing by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively [14]. Trade and Investment - Merchandise exports grew by 10.6 percent in Q1-2025, down from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, while imports increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year [3][15]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025 from $7.7 billion in Q1-2024 [15]. Industrial Production - Industrial production index rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the PMI indicating expansion at 50.5 [4][17]. Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.8 percent year-on-year, supported by rising average monthly income [4][23]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation increased to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the SBV raising the inflation target to 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Fiscal Performance - Revenue collection for Q1-2025 reached 36.7 percent of the annual plan, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax [6][30].

Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The European Commission has initiated a public consultation regarding a list of goods for countermeasures against US tariffs, focusing on a total value of €95 billion in imports from the US [1] - The consultation will remain open until June 10 and includes various industrial and agricultural products, such as €12.9 billion in chemicals and plastics, €12 billion in machinery, and €10.4 billion in civilian aircraft [1] - The EU is also considering limiting exports of €4.4 billion in scrap steel and chemical products to the US, with potential significant impacts on companies like Boeing if new measures are implemented [1] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as incompetent while asserting that inflation is not a concern due to falling energy prices and increasing tariff revenues [2] - This criticism reflects Trump's political strategy of attributing economic issues to individual decision-makers rather than structural problems, continuing his long-standing approach of "blame-shifting" [2] Group 3: India's Water Management and Regional Relations - India has reopened the gates of two hydropower stations on the Chenab River, which had previously cut off water supply to Pakistan, leading to significant agricultural risks in Pakistan [4] - The reopening of water supply is seen as a potential step towards improving relations between India and Pakistan, although concerns remain about underlying tensions and conflicts [7] - The management and distribution of water resources have emerged as critical global challenges, with the India-Pakistan water dispute highlighting the need for sustainable solutions in regional cooperation [7]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The registration pace has significantly accelerated, with a total of 594 projects currently under review, an increase of 2 from the previous period[6] - In the last two weeks, 18 new private placement projects were added, a decrease of 6 from the previous period, while 7 projects were terminated, also down by 6[6] - The average time from proposal to approval has shortened to 233 days, with a 100% approval rate for projects reviewed in the last two weeks[18] Group 2: Fundraising and Pricing - Two competitive bidding projects raised a total of 1.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.08% from the previous period, with a full subscription rate of 100%[32] - The average base discount rate for competitive bidding projects increased by 3.05 percentage points to 11.95%[32] - The average market discount rate for these projects rose by 3.73 percentage points to 12.76%[32] Group 3: Performance Analysis - Among the six competitive bidding projects that were unlocked, 66.67% had positive returns, a decrease of 33.33 percentage points from the previous period[43] - The average absolute return on the unlock date for these projects was 23.62%, down by 6.16 percentage points[43] - For four pricing projects, the average absolute return was -20.52%, a significant drop of 96.50 percentage points from the previous period[49] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected review progress, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the competitive bidding environment[54]

Macro - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, emphasizing the balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system [1][2] - The report highlights the need to lower bank funding costs and suggests an imminent adjustment in deposit rates, reflecting a focus on stabilizing bank margins [1] - The central bank's easing cycle is expected to continue, with potential for further interest rate cuts and structural tools if economic pressures increase [1][2] Strategy - The Chinese A/H stock market is anticipated to rise further, with a positive outlook following recent market corrections and recovery [5][6] - The report notes that investor sentiment has improved regarding the economic situation and government responses to external pressures, creating a favorable environment for market growth [5] - Key sectors for investment include technology, consumer goods, and cyclical industries, with a focus on domestic demand and supply constraints [6][7] Non-Banking - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a plan for the high-quality development of public funds, focusing on enhancing long-term returns and investor trust [16][17] - The plan aims to shift the focus of fund management from scale to performance, promoting innovation and efficiency within the industry [16][17] - The restructuring of fund management tasks is expected to influence industry competition and lead to a concentration of resources among leading firms [17]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

Group 1 - The company is established as a joint-stock limited company in accordance with relevant regulations and has been registered with the local administration [3][4] - The registered capital of the company is RMB 971,986,293 [4] - The company aims to enhance competitiveness through the latest production technology and provide the best quality and service to gain user trust and attract shareholder investment [5][6] Group 2 - The company has a total of 971,986,293 shares, with 799,606,293 being common shares and 172,380,000 being B shares [9] - The company issues shares at a par value of RMB 1 per share, and all shares have equal rights [8][9] - The company can increase capital through public offerings, private placements, and other methods approved by the shareholders' meeting [10][11] Group 3 - The company has established a governance structure that includes a board of directors, a supervisory board, and senior management [4][5] - Shareholders have rights to dividends, voting, and other benefits proportional to their shareholdings [15][16] - The company must hold annual and extraordinary shareholder meetings to discuss key matters such as financial reports, profit distribution, and major asset transactions [41][43]

21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习记者范书晴北京报道 谈及美国对欧盟加征的关税，他表示，这无法在短时间内促使德国企业对美投资激增。一方面，很多大 型德国企业早已在美国布局，另一方面，很多中小企业往往缺乏对外投资的资金或人力。因此，他呼吁 美欧在90天关税暂停期后尽快找到解决方案，以避免各方陷入双输的局面。 "中国市场的竞争非常激烈。以汽车行业为例，中国制造商在质量和技术创新上进步显著。我们在机 械、可再生技术等领域也看到了类似趋势。这是一个发展迅速的市场，有时快到我们在德国甚至欧洲的 合作伙伴难以完全察觉或理解。"5月7日，中国德国商会华北及东北地区执行董事兼董事会成员欧阳利 文(Oliver Oehms)在北京接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时说道。 当天，中国德国商会在北京发布最新一期商业信心调查报告。报告指出，美国政府掀起的新一轮关税战 给在华德国企业带来了诸多障碍。尽管如此，半数受访企业仍计划扩大在华投资，超过三分之一的企业 选择加快本地化进程，以此作为应对持续贸易紧张局势的战略性举措。 据新华社报道，当地时间6日下午，德国联邦议院进行了总理选举第二轮投票。德国联盟党总理候选人 弗里德里希·默茨在第二轮投票 ...