Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Iron ore: Negotiations and games intensify price fluctuations [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Multi - and short - side markets play games, with wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - Logs: Cost expectations weaken, and prices correct [2][15] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The closing price of I2605 was 817.0 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan/ton or 1.30%, and the position decreased by 6,288 hands to 408,026 hands [4] - Spot prices: Imported ore and some domestic ore prices increased slightly, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged [4] - Basis and spreads: Some basis values decreased, and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Price fluctuations are due to structural contradictions in cost and inventory, including rising freight and low port inventory [4] - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, and the GDP growth target is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [4][5] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (trend intensity: 0) [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: RB2605 closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.35%, and HC2605 closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.45%. Positions decreased [8] - Spot prices: Some prices in different regions decreased or remained unchanged [8] - Basis and spreads: Some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News** - On March 26, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different changes [9] - Various steel - related production, inventory, and trade data in March and 1 - 2 months of 2026 are provided [10] - Real estate investment decreased, and industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased in 1 - 2 months of 2026 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral for both rebar and hot - rolled coil (trend intensity: 0) [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and trading volumes and positions varied [12] - Spot prices: Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the price of manganese ore remained unchanged [12] - Spreads: Various spreads such as spot - futures spreads, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News** - Price quotes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are provided [12] - A company's manganese ore price quote increased [14] - Some silicon - iron furnaces were restarted [14] - Steel mills had new procurement plans and prices [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (trend intensity: 0) [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes [15] - Spreads: Various spreads changed, with significant percentage changes in some spreads [15] - Spot prices: Most spot prices remained unchanged, with only a few showing small fluctuations [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, and the GDP growth target is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [17] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (trend intensity: 0) [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various types of steel products in different regions from March 20 to March 26, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils [1]. Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginal improvement and inventory is gradually being reduced, there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances to the price [5]. - In the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - allocated non - ferrous metals and short - allocated black metals [10][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The cost can provide strong support in the short term, but demand improvement is weak [19]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom. The current fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand [21]. - Float glass prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. One should pay attention to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the inventory reduction rhythm has not effectively affected the price [26]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 81,588 tons, a net increase of 5,791 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 1.1672 million lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 533,679 tons, a net increase of 8,827 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 962,300 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is still insufficient, and the support for steel demand from the real - estate sector is limited in the short term. The supply and demand of steel have both increased, and the inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace, but there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 817.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.30% (+10.50). The position volume changed by - 6288 lots to 408,000 lots. The weighted position volume of iron ore was 890,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 24.37 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period continued the upward trend. The shipments from Australia increased to a relatively high level, while those from Brazil decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries remained basically stable, and the near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output according to the Steel Union's data increased by 2.94 tons month - on - month to 231.09 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and it is expected that the pig - iron output will continue to rise. The profitability of steel mills has shown a slight upward trend. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.89% at 6434 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6300 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6490 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 56 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.74% at 5982 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession. Although the long - term trend of commodities is still upward, in the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but these factors are mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market trends of the two are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1230.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1565.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1375.5 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 147.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1360 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1345.0 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 115.0 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.84% at 1761.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1758 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 50.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the price of coking coal may be supported by the withdrawal of funds from the non - ferrous and black sectors. The coking coal's energy attribute may be further stimulated, but the high volatility of oil and gas will also lead to high volatility in coking coal prices. In the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound are insufficient, and one is advised to conduct short - term long - side operations or wait and see. In the long term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.40% (-35). The weighted contract position volume increased by 472 lots to 370,523 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 415 yuan/ton; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was 65 yuan/ton [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 35,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.29% (-1210). The weighted contract position volume increased by 764 lots to 51,484 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 41.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 39 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 39.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4210 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is slightly increasing, but the demand improvement is weak. The high energy prices provide cost support [19]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1036 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.99% (-21). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, a decrease of 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 65,234 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 61,070 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.53% (-19). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons (-1.09%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,828 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 3454 lots [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - Glass: The supply contraction provides some support to the market sentiment, but the high inventory and weak demand restrict the price increase. The float glass market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and one should focus on the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price is expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The steel price of rebar is expected to continue to fluctuate. The fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, focusing on the demand performance [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved marginally. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, the rebar output has decreased month - on - month, and the supply has contracted again. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. - The demand for rebar continues to improve seasonally. The weekly apparent demand has increased month - on - month, but the high - frequency trading performance is average, and the downstream industries have not changed substantially, so the demand improvement space may be limited. - At present, the demand for rebar has improved, the supply is weakly stable, the fundamental situation shows seasonal improvement, and the cost still provides support. The steel price has returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement is questionable [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; rebar recommends range trading; glass suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [1][9][10][11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high levels; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel and tin recommend range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][23][24]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to trade with a bullish bias; soda ash recommends shorting at high levels; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a bullish bias; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][42]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long on contract 05; for oils and fats, gradually reduce previous long positions [1][44][46][47][49][50]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations (e.g., the Iran - US conflict), economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors have different trends and investment strategies based on their specific fundamentals [5][14][26]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to the Iran - US situation and other factors, they may trade sideways in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The domestic capital market may remain loose in the short term, but the repair of the long - short spread may be affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The short - term price is bullish, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a narrow - range sideways movement. The valuation is low, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, the inventory has continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the demand is general. The raw material soda ash is under pressure. It is expected to trade sideways with a bearish bias, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is under pressure from multiple factors such as inflation, a strong US dollar, and high inventory, but the domestic consumption season and inventory reduction will support the price. It is recommended to moderately short at high levels and closely monitor relevant factors [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The cost is stable, the production capacity is increasing, the demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is waiting for a turning point. It is recommended to strengthen observation and wait for a stable market sentiment to enter the market [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore price is strong, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The overall price is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and it is recommended to observe [18][19]. - **Tin**: The production has decreased, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. It is expected to trade in a wide range, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision, the Iran situation, and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. It is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to relevant policy developments [24][25]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the short term, and trading within the rising - channel range is recommended [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is supported by alumina production and exports, and the supply may be affected by maintenance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and be cautious about chasing highs [28]. - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and buy on dips without chasing highs [29]. - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand, they are expected to trade with a bullish bias. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [31]. - **Rubber**: Affected by synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [32]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [33][34]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short at high levels [36][37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production has increased, the consumption has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The domestic market is active, and the price is expected to trade with a bullish bias [39]. - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is generally stable [40][41]. - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [42]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [44][45]. - **Eggs**: The demand is supported by festivals, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. It is expected to trade in a range, and be cautious about shorting on rebounds [46]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range. Pay attention to relevant factors [48]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China relationship and South American production, the price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long on contract 05 [49]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to trade at a high level. Gradually reduce previous long positions, and conduct range trading [50][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry's production has a seasonal rebound this week, but the increase is slow. The iron - water output has increased by 30,000 tons, and the output of the five major steel products remains stable. The apparent demand has increased more than the output, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the steel mills' production cuts in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is normal, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, it lacks upward driving force, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the raw material end. Recently, the strengthening of crude oil may affect the trend of ferrous metals. It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coils will fluctuate around 3,150 and 3,200 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract rose slightly yesterday, mainly affected by news. Geopolitical games, the undetermined negotiation between BHP and Chinese mines, and the resumption of iron - water production are the focus of future iron ore trading. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume has increased slightly this period, the Australian shipment volume continues to rise, and BHP's shipment has dropped to a historical low. A super typhoon in Australia may cause a short - term decline in iron ore shipments, but subsequent replenishment is possible. On the demand side, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of inventory, both steel mill and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is expected that the port inventory will either decrease slightly or remain unchanged. In the short term, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 780 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke futures showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first round of price increase after the Spring Festival on March 23, which is expected to be successfully implemented. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for coke price increases, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and the increase in chemical production prices makes up for coke losses. After the Two Sessions, the coking start - up rate has increased. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, steel prices rebounded at a low level, and the replenishment demand will gradually recover later. In terms of inventory, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing, with the short - term supply and demand of coke basically balanced. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,650 - 1,850, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke. - The coking coal futures also showed a high - level decline trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have turned into a general increase pattern, and Mongolian coal quotes fluctuate with futures. After the festival, the replenishment demand is gradually warming up. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal output is increasing; in terms of imported coal, the port inventory is slowing down and remains at a relatively high level after the resumption of customs clearance. On the demand side, after the Two Sessions, the steel mill production restrictions were lifted, iron - water output increased, coking production increased synchronously, and with the cost increase, coke prices are expected to bottom out and rebound. In terms of inventory, washing plants, coking enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory shows a change of downstream active replenishment. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1,150 - 1,350, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly recently. Geopolitical conflicts, coal prices, and supply growth rate jointly affect ferrosilicon prices. Fundamentally, ferrosilicon production has decreased slightly, the start - up rate in production areas has also declined, and the resumption of production is lower than expected. The manufacturer's profit has improved. In terms of steel demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily output of magnesium alloy is at a relatively high level and has increased. The ferrosilicon export has weakened, but the export profit has improved. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke may rise. In the short term, due to the complex international geopolitical situation, the supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, but the supply growth rate is lower than expected, and the supply - demand is still in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to long ferrosilicon and short ferromanganese for price difference repair. - The main ferromanganese contract fluctuated widely. Hebei Iron and Steel Group released a new round of steel procurement, and CML announced the May quotation to China. Fundamentally, the ferromanganese supply continues to decline, the start - up rate has declined for several consecutive weeks, and the joint production reduction of manufacturers may be in progress. The production pressure in the south is still relatively large, and the electricity price subsidy in Yunnan has led to some resumption of production; there will be new production capacity of ferromanganese plants in the second quarter. In terms of demand, the iron - water output has increased slightly, slightly lower than expected, and some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, with the profitability of steel mills improving. Currently, the terminal demand recovery is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and steel exports are uncertain. In terms of cost, the import of manganese ore is in a tight balance, and factors such as the resumption of downstream ferromanganese production and increased shipping costs boost prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range of 5,700 - 6,800 [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar are 3,132 yuan/ton, 3,162 yuan/ton, and 3,184 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 4 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, and - 2 yuan/ton. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coils are 3,313 yuan/ton, 3,322 yuan/ton, and 3,321 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 8 yuan/ton, - 9 yuan/ton, and - 4 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the slab price is 3,730 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu is 3,262 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar is 3,174 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and 199 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 21 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and 49 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 11 yuan/ton, and - 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water output is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The output of the five major steel products is 839.6 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.0% compared with the previous value. The rebar output is 197.9 tons, a decrease of 5.5 tons or - 2.7% compared with the previous value, including an electric - arc furnace output of 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or - 4.3%, and a converter output of 165.2 tons, a decrease of 4.0 tons or - 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.6 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons or 1.8% compared with the previous value. - The inventory of the five major steel products is 1,897.8 tons, a decrease of 48.4 tons or - 2.5% compared with the previous value. The rebar inventory is 861.9 tons, a decrease of 27.5 tons or - 3.1% compared with the previous value. The hot - rolled coil inventory is 453.3 tons, a decrease of 8.0 tons or - 1.7% compared with the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.9 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 4.0% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 888.0 tons, an increase of 19.5 tons or 2.2% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for rebar is 225.4 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 8.3% compared with the previous value. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 927.5 yuan/ton, 846.8 yuan/ton, 847.4 yuan/ton, and 884.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price increases of 7.6 yuan/ton, 7.7 yuan/ton, 7.6 yuan/ton, and 7.6 yuan/ton, and increases of 0.8%, 0.9%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively. - The 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 110.5 yuan/ton, 29.8 yuan/ton, 30.4 yuan/ton, and 67.0 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 2.9 yuan/ton, - 2.8 yuan/ton, - 2.9 yuan/ton, and - 2.9 yuan/ton, and changes of - 2.5%, - 8.6%, - 8.8%, and - 4.1% respectively. The 5 - 9 spread is 29.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.7%. The 9 - 1 spread is 20.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 2.4% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2,271.6 tons, an increase of 56.6 tons or 2.6% compared with the previous value. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3,144.3 tons, an increase of 95.5 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The national monthly import volume is 9,763.8 tons, a decrease of 2,200.9 tons or - 18.4% compared with the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 228.2 tons, an increase of 7.0 tons or 3.1% compared with the previous value. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) is 321.0 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons or 1.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,072.2 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value. The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6,817.7 tons or - 100.0% compared with the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17,098.40 tons, a decrease of 89.1 tons or - 0.5% compared with the previous value. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 9,034.1 tons, an increase of 105.0 tons or 1.2% compared with the previous value. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, an increase of 2.0 days or 9.5% compared with the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,681 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Rizhao Port (warehouse - receipt) is 1,767 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The 05 contract of coke is 1,761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or - 0.8%. The 09 contract of coke is 1,846 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or - 1.0%. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) is 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of medium - sulfur primary coking coal in Shanxi (warehouse - receipt) is 1,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1,333 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 05 contract of coking coal is 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or - 0.9%. The 09 contract of coking coal is 1,369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or - 0.7%. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 552 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan/ton or 11.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 0.8% compared with the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.3 tons, unchanged. The iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 231.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous value [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 997.8 tons, an increase of 16.3 tons or 1.7% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 90.1 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or - 4.4% compared with the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 691.7 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons or 0.5% compared with the previous value. The port inventory is 216.1 tons, an increase of 17.0 tons or 8.5% compared with the previous value. - The coking coal inventory of Fenxi Coal Mine's cleaned coal is 97.2 tons, a decrease of 11.0 tons or - 10.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1,047.5 tons, an increase of 42.5 tons or 4.2% compared with the previous value. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.4 tons, an increase of 8.5

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unclear situation of the geopolitical conflict, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF, while being vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring to the stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics - The situation of the Iranian geopolitical conflict continues to affect the financial market, and the war situation has fluctuated. On March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in Isfahan, increasing market concerns about the further escalation of the war. Iran has responded to the US's 15 - point cease - fire proposal through an intermediary, but believes the US's negotiation stance is part of a "third deception" plan. The market's expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been dashed, resulting in a rebound in oil prices and a decline in major assets. The negotiation may still be in the intermediary - mediated stage, and it is difficult to reach a complete agreement quickly in the short term [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries on the basis of the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, and adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also prioritizes the rectification of involution - style competition and the promotion of carbon peak work, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, indicating that external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. Be vigilant about the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring, and it is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Sectors - **Financial Sector**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and risk appetite tightens. Stock index futures are affected by strong geopolitical risks and are in a volatile state; stock index options have a slight increase in implied volatility and are also in a volatile state; treasury bond futures have improved sentiment due to safe - haven demand and loose capital, and are in a volatile state [4]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the risk of repeated conflicts. Gold and silver are affected by the repeated geopolitical situation, which raises inflation concerns, but the spot drive of silver is still weak, and both are in a volatile state [4]. - **Shipping Sector**: The opening freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month. The spot market has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The container shipping European line is in a weakly volatile state [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: The cost support has weakened, and the prices are falling from high levels. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as cost, production, and inventory [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are oscillating and rising. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The energy shortage continues to affect the market, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply, and demand [5][6]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The supply of pig sources is sufficient, and the price continues to fall. Grains, oils, livestock, and other agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. Among them, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and it is in a weakly volatile state [5][6]. 3.5 Market Fluctuation Data - **Financial Market**: On March 26, 2026, stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined; treasury bond futures such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year showed different degrees of increase; the US dollar index increased, and the US dollar intermediate price also changed; interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield also changed [8]. - **Industry Index**: On March 26, 2026, most industries in the CITIC Industry Index declined, with industries such as national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and electronics having relatively large declines, while industries such as coal and oil and petrochemicals had slight increases [9][10]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 25, 2026, energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil declined; precious metals such as COMEX gold and COMEX silver increased; non - ferrous metals such as LME copper and LME aluminum had different trends; agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn increased [11][12]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 26, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemicals, and agricultural products all showed different degrees of price fluctuations. For example, the container shipping European line increased, while gold and silver declined [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and changes in inflation expectations. The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession [4][8][41]. - The economic recovery in China shows signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still requires the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The bond market may be under pressure due to inflation concerns [8]. - Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, while energy and chemical products are also influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as planting area, production, and international events [12][62][85]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US is reported to be planning a final strike against Iran. The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year. Chip stocks have seen increased selling. SMIC's revenue in 2025 was $9.327 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 93.5% [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran affects global risk appetite. The hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The yield of Japanese two - year Treasury bonds reached a new high since 1996. The oil production in southern Iraq has decreased. The central bank conducted a net injection of 21.1 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile state [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose. The inflation risk has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities for 10 days [9]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical conflict is the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum, but in the short term, precious metals will remain in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US military action against Iran has affected market sentiment, and copper prices have adjusted. LME inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories also decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation is expected to be volatile. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and domestic refined copper consumption has improved. Copper prices may be in a short - term volatile state [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Middle East situation has affected the supply side, and aluminum prices have risen. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [14]. - **Strategy View**: The Middle East situation has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. Aluminum prices may be in a short - term volatile state [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc rose slightly. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and the profit of the zinc industry has declined. The zinc price is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell slightly. The inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par [19]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the production of primary and secondary smelting enterprises has improved. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, with both support and downward pressure. The volatility may increase [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fell slightly. The spot premium of nickel decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, nickel prices may follow the downward trend due to inflation expectations and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is expected to improve, and the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying operations within a range [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin fell. The production of tin smelters has recovered, but the demand has only marginally improved. The inventory has decreased [23]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery state. Affected by geopolitical factors and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, tin prices are expected to be weak [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a slight increase. The production increased, and the inventory also increased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, and the inventory increase is at a new high since August last year. The supply may be affected by the Zimbabwean mineral export ban. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the changes in the futures position, industrial events, and spot premium [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina fell. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the overseas price also increased. The futures inventory increased [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: The Guinean government may tighten bauxite exports, and the short - term supply of alumina has tightened. However, the long - term oversupply situation remains. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to domestic supply policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the raw material price also remained stable. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Driven by raw material cost and policy, the price of stainless steel is supported. However, the supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fell. The trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [31]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is still supported [33]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the positions decreased. The spot prices in some regions decreased [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on costs [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rose. The spot price and basis increased, and the position decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment is increasing, and the demand for iron ore is also rising. The port inventory is decreasing, and the bottom support of iron ore prices is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term [37][38]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell. The spot prices of coking coal and coke had different premiums and discounts to the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy View**: The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the prices of coking coal and coke are under pressure. In the short term, the supply - demand structure is relatively loose, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. In the long term, the price of coking coal is still optimistic [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash fell, and the inventory also decreased [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The price of glass is restricted by high inventory and weak demand and is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. The supply - demand situation of soda ash is loose, and the price is expected to be in a low - level wide - range volatile state [43][45]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon had premiums to the futures prices [46]. - **Strategy View**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession expectations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the impact of the black market and the cost and supply factors of the two products [47][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The production increased, and the demand improved slightly. The price of polysilicon fell, and the inventory increased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile state, supported by cost. The fundamental situation of polysilicon is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile state [51][54]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the production of butadiene rubber has been cut. The opinions of the long and short sides of natural rubber are divided. The operating rate of tire enterprises has changed, and the inventory has different trends [57][58][59]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the out - of - the - money call options of butadiene rubber and start to configure put options [61]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of INE crude oil rose, while the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils fell [62]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to start a strategic short - position allocation for crude oil. It is also recommended to widen the price difference between different oil types and short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [63]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol increased, and the MTO profit decreased [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [65]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed slightly, and the basis was - 15 yuan/ton [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - allocate urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [67]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis weakened. The supply and demand situation has changed [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large geopolitical impact on the disk [70]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The cost remained stable, the production decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PVC is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [73]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [75]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rose. The production increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [77]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to short - term excessive price increases [79]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [81]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rose. The production decreased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of PP is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to production mismatch [83]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs generally fell, and the trading was not active [85]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [86]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable, and the supply was normal [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price of eggs is expected to be strong, but the upside space is limited. The long - term price may fall, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [88]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted planting areas of US corn and soybeans have increased. The US soybean exports have decreased. The soybean inventory and crushing rate have changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran and the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards are negative for meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Oils - **Market Information**: Indonesia has restricted the export of coal, palm oil, and its derivatives. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have changed. The inventory of domestic oils has decreased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: China's sugar imports have increased, and the production and sales in some countries have changed [93]. - **Strategy View**: The possible cease - fire between the US and Iran is negative for sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: China's cotton and cotton yarn imports have increased. The US cotton exports have decreased. The spinning mill operating rate has increased, and the inventory has increased [95][96]. - **Strategy View**: The new import quota is negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices in the short term and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, the rising operating rate is positive for Zhengzhou cotton prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of energy - related commodities like LPG and fuel oil, while the supply - demand structure affects the prices of metals and agricultural products [109][120]. - Different commodities are in different market states, including price fluctuations (such as gold and silver), range - bound oscillations (such as copper and tin), and upward or downward trends (such as sugar and pork) [5][19]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the price has declined. The Turkish central bank sold $8 billion worth of gold during the Iran war, putting downward pressure on the price [5][9]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from the oscillation platform, with significant price changes [5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both are in a relatively weak state, with trend intensities of - 1, and they are in a range - bound oscillation [27][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is oscillating. The Zambian government aims to triple copper production by 2031, and some copper mines have suspended operations [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level, with a trend intensity of 1, and the price has a slight upward trend [13][15]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0; alumina is running weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [23][25]. - **Nickel**: There are contradictions between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified, with a trend intensity of 0; stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs, with a trend intensity of 0 [31][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently, with a trend intensity of 1 [109][113]. - **Propylene**: Affected by geopolitical factors at the cost end, there is an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [109][113]. - **Fuel Oil**: It has a narrow - range oscillation during the day session and a slight rebound at night, with a trend intensity of 0; low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline, with a trend intensity of 0 [120]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [90][95]. - **Urea**: It is in a range - bound operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [97][100]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [101][104]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of 0 [107]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. High inventory needs time to digest, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations in the long - term [117][118]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by oil price fluctuations, it is in a high - level oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [148][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean system is not significant, and attention is paid to the release of RVO, with a trend intensity of 0 [148][153]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: They are in an adjustment and oscillation state, waiting for new information, with a trend intensity of 0 [155][157]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [158][160]. - **Sugar**: It is oscillating upwards, with a trend intensity of 1 [162][164]. - **Cotton**: It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the external market, with a trend intensity of 0 [166][170]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts, with a trend intensity of 0 [171][172]. - **Pork**: The weight reduction is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down, with a trend intensity of - 2 [174][176]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0 [178][180]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the meeting situation today, with a trend intensity of 0 [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a bottom - finding stage, with a trend intensity of 0 [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The negotiation game intensifies, and the ore price fluctuates greatly, with a trend intensity of 0 [46][48]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in an oscillating and repeated state, with a trend intensity of 0 [50][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The long - short market game is intense, and they are in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [54][56]. - **Log**: The cost expectation weakens, and the price corrects, with a trend intensity of 0 [57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: They are in a short - term oscillating market and are still relatively strong in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 0; MEG has a tight supply and a relatively strong medium - term trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [61][65]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [66][67]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in an intra - day wide - range oscillation, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [70][72]. - **LLDPE**: The start - up rate continues to decline, and the raw material price corrects under negative feedback, with a trend intensity of 1; PP has large fluctuations in C3 raw materials, and the basis is weakly stable, with a trend intensity of 1 [73][76]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0 [77][79]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [81][83]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [87][88]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They are in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [137][138]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0 [140]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot is under pressure, and the market pays attention to geopolitical disturbances, with a trend intensity of 0 [122][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal destocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs and supported futures prices, the futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, indicating significant upward resistance. It is recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is gradually entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The futures price shows significant upward resistance after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is also recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The total output of the five major varieties of 247 sample steel mills this week has changed little, inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal destocking state [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3128 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.22% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3305 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.09% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 197.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.69%; hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.80%. The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties, as well as the inventory of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, have all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Market Transaction**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 19.39 tons, down 20.29% from the previous day and 18.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 887.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%; the apparent demand for threaded steel social inventory is 225.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.30%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil social inventory is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00% [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered threaded steel warehouse receipts is 98088 tons, and the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 537279 tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons. The short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The recent arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 817 yuan/dry ton, up 1.30% from the previous day and 1.18% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 107.34 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.04% from the previous day and down 1.34% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1701.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.44%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 495.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The port inventory is 17098.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from last week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel export volume was 1559.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the export average price was 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36.9 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, and the import average price was 1740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, the cumulative steel import volume was 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, and the import average price was 1769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. - As of the week of March 26, the threaded steel output decreased from an increase, the factory inventory and social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for five consecutive weeks. The threaded steel output was 197.87 tons, a decrease of 5.46 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.69%; the apparent demand was 225.37 tons, an increase of 17.28 tons from last week, an increase of 8.30% [6]. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operations of the Australian mining industry have been affected, forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently raging along the west coast of Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions [6]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is 21 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 47 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 76 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 28 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 73 yuan/ton [7]. - Against the background that most orders fall short of expectations, the procurement enthusiasm of the glass mid - downstream has slowed down. The downstream procurement is mostly for rigid demand, and the inventory depletion of glass enterprises has slowed down this week. As of March 26, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 7362.2 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 81.4 million heavy boxes or 1.09%, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 9.86%, equivalent to 33.6 days of inventory, a slight decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The inventory in the northwest region continues to increase, while the inventory in other regions continues to decrease [7].