1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - Near - term supply - demand is in a tight - balance with marginal relief. Brent's main contract is expected to trade between $67 - 70 per barrel. The market should focus on Middle - East exports and feedstock demand from major consumers in Q3, as well as the progress of China - US trade negotiations [2]. Asphalt - Supply is at a low level year - on - year, and demand improved significantly in Q2. Q3 demand will determine the de - stocking strength during the peak season. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and the crack spread will be stronger [4][5]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure in Q3 is slightly less than expected, and demand for high - sulfur feedstock is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising with no specific demand drivers [6][7]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to factors such as new device production, maintenance, and market demand, short - term prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [8][11][13][15][18][20]. Plastic PP - There is still significant production capacity pressure in Q3, and the terminal demand is weak year - on - year. Currently, it is mainly macro - led, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply - demand has weakened, but short - term prices are expected to be strong due to macro - policies. Caustic soda fundamentals are marginally weaker, but the short - term price is also expected to be strong due to policy and sentiment [29]. Glass and Soda Ash - Macro and industry factors are in resonance, with both futures and spot prices rising. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. Methanol - International device start - up rates are rising, and domestic supply is abundant. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [36]. Urea - Domestic supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips [38]. Double - coated Paper - The market is partially declining, and the supply - demand is weak. Industry players are cautiously waiting and watching [40]. Logs - The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang has increased. Near - term contracts are in the delivery verification stage, and it is recommended to wait and watch [43][44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - RU and NR contracts are recommended to hold long positions, and the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 should be reduced for observation [48]. Butadiene Rubber - BR contracts are recommended to short - sell a small amount, with a stop - loss set at the night - session high [52]. Pulp - The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and watch [53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2509 rose $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, Brent2509 rose $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, and SC2509 rose to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2509 closed at 3598 points (+0.31%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3458 points (+0.32%) at night [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU09 closed at 2893 (+1.08%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3567 (+0.31%) at night [5]. - **PX**: PX2509 closed at 7010 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price rose to $856 per ton [7]. - **PTA**: TA509 closed at 4888 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated between 4775 - 4870 yuan [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2509 closed at 4565 (+1.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated around 4542 - 4545 yuan [12]. - **Short - fiber**: PF2509 closed at 6566 (+0.71%) at night, and the spot price was stable [15]. - **PR**: PR2509 closed at 6096 (+0.89%) at night, and the spot market trading was average [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 6320 (+1.51%) at night, EB2509 closed at 7439 (+1.71%) at night, and the spot prices were in different ranges [18]. - **Plastic PP**: LLDPE market prices had partial fluctuations, and PP spot prices in different regions had different changes [22]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices mostly rose, and caustic soda prices were stable [25][26]. - **Glass**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1346 yuan per ton (+2.98%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [30]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1430 yuan (+1.6%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2494 (+1.18%) at night, and spot prices in different regions varied [35]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1785 (-0.17%), and the spot prices were stable [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: The market had partial declines, and prices in Shandong region decreased [40]. - **Logs**: The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang increased, and the 9 - month contract fluctuated [43]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: RU09 rose 1.05%, NR09 rose 1.26%, and BR09 remained unchanged [46][47][50]. - **Pulp**: The SP09 contract closed at 5454 (-0.04%), and spot prices of different pulp types were in different ranges [53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Middle - East, US - Venezuela relations, and potential EU - US trade agreements [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Price changes in different regions, production status of refineries, and inventory data [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Inventory changes in ARA and Singapore, and trading in the Singapore spot window [5][6]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Downstream product sales, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [8][10][12][15][17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Device start - up rates, new device production plans, and import data [19][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Device maintenance, start - up rates, and downstream industry start - up rates [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Inventory changes, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [26][27][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Policy consultations, price changes in different regions, and inventory changes [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Production volume, device start - up rates, and international device status [36]. - **Urea**: Production volume, start - up rates, and export policies [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Production status of paper mills, inventory changes, and raw material prices [40][41]. - **Logs**: Price changes, pre - arrival ships, and freight rates [43][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, and tire production line start - up rates [48][51][52]. - **Pulp**: Industry standard formulation and downstream paper mill demand [54]. Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand balance is affected by Middle - East exports and macro - factors, and long - term supply may be in excess [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is affected by production and demand seasons, and prices are affected by oil prices [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors such as device start - up and demand seasons [6][7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Supply is affected by new device production and maintenance, and demand is affected by the off - season [8][11][13][15][18]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase in Q3, and prices are affected by cost and policy [20]. - **Plastic PP**: There is production capacity pressure, and demand is weak, but macro - factors play a leading role [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has weakened, but macro - policies support prices [29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Macro and industry policies drive price increases, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. - **Methanol**: Abundant supply and stable demand lead to short - term oscillation [36]. - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve, and prices are affected by exports [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Supply - demand is weak, and factories try to maintain prices [41]. - **Logs**: Downstream demand is weak, and price support and valuation are affected by multiple factors [44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Tire production line start - up rates and macro - factors affect prices [48][52]. - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices are affected by downstream demand [53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and gasoline crack spreads are weak while diesel crack spreads are stable [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading is oscillating narrowly, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading is on hold, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot [7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, and arbitrage and options are on hold [8][11][13][15][18][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, and arbitrage and options are on hold [25]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading is strong, and arbitrage and options are on hold [30]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Unilateral trading is strong, arbitrage is to go long on glass and short on soda ash, and options are on hold [32][35]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, arbitrage is on hold, and sell call options [38]. - **Urea**: Unilateral trading is to buy on dips, arbitrage is on hold, and sell put options on dips [39]. - **Double - coated Paper**: No specific trading strategies are provided. - **Logs**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage and options are on hold [45]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Hold long positions in RU and NR, reduce the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 for observation, and options are on hold [48]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Short - sell a small amount of BR, and arbitrage and options are on hold [52]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage is on hold [55].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - No information provided in the content. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Raw Material Prices**: - Crude oil (CFR) price on July 25, 2025, was $567.38 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1]. - Ethylene price in Northeast Asia on July 25, 2025, was $821 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - Cycloethane ex - factory price in East China on July 25, 2025, was $6450 per ton, unchanged [1]. - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) price on July 24, 2025, was $290 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - **Futures Prices**: - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on July 24, 2025, was $4469 per ton, up 0.65% [1]. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on July 24, 2025, was $4226 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - **Product Prices**: - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on July 24, 2025, was $400 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber on July 24, 2025, was $8600 per ton, up 1.1% [1]. - The price index of polyester short - fiber on July 24, 2025, was $6585 per ton, down 0.23% [1]. - **Industrial Chain Load Rates**: - The load rate of the PTA factory on July 24, 2025, was 0.00% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on July 24, 2025, was 8.63%, up 0.61% [1]. - **Profitability**: - The after - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based device on July 24, 2025, was $1641.11 per ton, down $9.18 [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or -0.25% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton or +0.16% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month-on-month). The news of the upcoming work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries boosted the market, but the impact on EG was limited as the proportion of backward production capacity over 20 years old was only 6.6%, and most were already shut down or operating at low loads. The cost of coal increased due to the production inspection notice [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (down 2.0 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.4 tons (up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 5.2 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 15.7 tons, and the visible inventory is expected to rise moderately early next week [2]. - For the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, on the supply side, the domestic synthetic gas - made glycol load has returned to a high level, with more unplanned load reductions in non - coal production, and limited room for further improvement. Overseas supply recovery was less than expected due to the poor restart of Saudi Arabian plants. On the demand side, terminal inventory was high and the willingness to stock up was low during the off - season, with weak demand expectations. However, the actual decline in demand may be limited, and the supply - demand structure in July was still favorable, but the pressure of foreign vessel arrivals would increase moderately in late July [2]. - In terms of strategy, the short - term performance is strong under the concentrated release of macro - policies, and the medium - term view is neutral. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4436 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4497 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -45 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was 93 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data or analysis of international spreads is provided in the summary part of the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - There is no detailed analysis of downstream sales, production, and operating rates in the summary part of the report. Inventory Data - MEG inventory at the East China main port was 53.3 tons (CCF data, down 2.0 tons month - on - month) and 49.4 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.3 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival last week was 5.2 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15.7 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The report mainly lists various commodity prices, price changes, and industry operating rates. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Commodity Prices and Changes - The current price of crude oil on July 24, 2025, is $567.38 per ton, up 0.18% from the previous day's $566.38 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on July 23, 2025, is $821.00 per ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The factory - ex price of ethylene glycol in East China on July 24, 2025, is $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value, but up from the previous price of $575.50 [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on July 23, 2025, is $444.00 per ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [1] Industry Operating Rates - The operating rate of PTA factories on July 23, 2025, is 80.1%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry on July 23, 2025, is 58.02%, unchanged from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,397 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 1.13% month-on-month to 358,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.91% month-on-month to 78.3%. On the demand side, last week's downstream operating rates varied; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.45% month-on-month to 237,500 tons. In terms of inventory, styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.66% month-on-month to 208,300 tons, East China port inventory increased by 8.81% month-on-month to 150,700 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 2.04% month-on-month to 19,200 tons. Currently, domestic styrene is still in a high-production state. This week, the impact of restarted plants will expand, and it is expected that production and capacity utilization will increase slightly. It is the off-season for terminal demand, and downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Benefiting from the decline in styrene prices, the profits of downstream "Three S" products have recovered; however, due to relatively weak demand, the high inventory of "Three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory. In terms of cost, the US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, and Trump said that trade agreements have been reached with Japan and the Philippines. International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; the supply and demand of pure benzene are expected to remain loose, providing limited support. Pay attention to the support around 7,310 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,570 yuan/ton on the daily K-line of EB2509 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,397 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the trading volume was 348,808 lots, down 52,691 lots; the open interest was 291,849 lots, up 7,196 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 342,487 lots, down 14,318 lots; the short positions were 368,314 lots, down 10,408 lots; the net long positions were -25,827 lots, down 3,910 lots. The closing price of the October contract was 7,367 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan. The spot price of styrene was 7,754 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 914 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 924 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars. The warehouse receipt quantity was 600 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the South China region, it was 7,670 yuan/ton; in the North China region, it was 7,450 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in the East China region, it was 7,485 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 816 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 737.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 283 cents/gallon, down 1 cent; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 767 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the East China market, it was 6,020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in the North China market, it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.3%, down 0.91 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 208,319 tons, down 1,376 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 150,700 tons, up 12,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 56,200 tons, up 11,200 tons. The operating rate of EPS was 53.18%, up 2.12 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 65.9%, up 0.9 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 50.6%, down 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 28%, down 1 percentage point; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 73.08%, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - From July 11th to 17th, the total production of Chinese styrene factories was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 1.13%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.91%. From July 11th to 17th, the consumption of China's main styrene downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 237,500 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 208,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, with demand hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. - For glass, it is advisable to temporarily wait and see as the price has encountered short - term platform resistance and the subsequent breakthrough is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1338 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1211 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1074637 lots, down 177945 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1044115 lots, down 182849 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 225673 lots, up 77294 lots; glass top 20 net open interest: - 248449 lots, up 45449 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 236 tons, up 236 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 93 yuan, down 12 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1195 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 188.42 million tons, down 2.14 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6493.9 million heavy boxes, down 216.3 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration to promote the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice aims to regulate coal mining enterprises' production behavior. On July 23, it was confirmed to be true [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, with production increasing. Profits have slightly recovered but are still negative, and production is expected to decline. Natural alkali method will gradually become the mainstream. Glass production line cold - repaired 1, with overall production unchanged. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory is increasing due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: Supply - side production remains at the bottom, with signs of rigid - demand production. Industry profits have improved, and the resumption of production may increase. Demand - side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders are declining, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Adjusted from bullish to neutral and oscillatory [1] - Precious metals: Wide - range oscillation, not advisable to chase the uptrend [2] - Copper: Resistance at the upper integer level, cautious trading [3] - Aluminum: Short - term high - level oscillation, resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - Cast aluminum alloy: More support compared to aluminum prices [5] - Alumina: High - level operation, beware of correction risks [6] - Zinc: Temporary wait - and - see, inclined to short above 23,000 [7] - Tin: Hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [9] - Polysilicon: Temporary wait - and - see [10] - Industrial silicon: Expected to oscillate upward [11] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The futures market is expected to remain strong [12] - Iron ore: Short - term upward trend, but note increased volatility [13] - Coke: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [14] - Coking coal: Likely to maintain the uptrend in the short term [15] - Manganese silicon: Follow the rebar trend, with a relatively small increase [16] - Ferrosilicon: Follow the rebar trend, with relatively weak increase [17] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Short - term wide - range oscillation [18] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: FU is resistant to decline, LU follows crude oil [19] - Asphalt: BU cracking margin is expected to be supported [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: The futures market runs weakly [21] - Urea: Expected to oscillate upward in the short term [22] - Methanol: The sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: Monthly spread band - trading, long in the short - to - medium term, short in the fourth quarter [24] - Styrene: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change in the short term [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: Market sentiment improves, but fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC follows the overall sentiment in the short term, caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: Wait for downstream demand to recover [27] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term long - position allocation, beware of pressure at previous highs [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Consider long - position allocation for short - fiber in the medium term [29] - Glass: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity reduction in the long term [30] - 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber: Adopt a rebound strategy [31] - Soda ash: Follow macro sentiment in the short term, pay attention to capacity elimination [32] - Soybean and soybean meal: Oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: Long - position allocation on dips [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: Short - term wait - and - see [35] - Soybean No.1: Follow weather and policy guidance in the short term [36] - Corn: Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: Follow policy guidance, far - month contracts are stronger [38] - Eggs: Seasonal rebound, pay attention to cold - storage egg release [39] - Cotton: Temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading [40] - Sugar: Expected to oscillate [41] - Apples: Temporary wait - and - see [42] - Wood: Temporary wait - and - see [43] - Pulp: Temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips [44] - Stock index: Risk preference is expected to be oscillatory and bullish, increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with an increased probability of a steeper yield curve [46] Core Views - The international oil price is affected by factors such as tariffs and geopolitics, showing a trend of first pressure and then potential support [1] - Precious metals are affected by macro - sentiment and policy uncertainty, showing wide - range oscillations [2] - Base metals are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and inventory, with different trends [3][4][7] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international sanctions, with diverse price trends [19][20][21] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand, with different investment strategies [33][34][35] - Financial products are affected by factors such as economic data, policies, and trade agreements, showing different trends [45][46] Summary by Categories Energy - Crude oil: Overnight international oil prices declined, and the market rating was adjusted to neutral and oscillatory. The impact of tariffs and geopolitics on oil prices is significant [1] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil system futures are under pressure, but FU is resistant to decline, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to shrink [19] - Asphalt: The August refinery production plan decreased, and the low - inventory pattern supports the BU cracking margin [20] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Overseas markets are weak, and the domestic market is expected to stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand [21] Metals - Precious metals: Overnight precious metals rose, and they are expected to oscillate widely due to policy uncertainty [2] - Base metals: - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose, and the market is waiting for the US tariff decision [3] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level, and the cost provides support, but the inventory increase restricts the upward space [4][8] - Zinc: The supply pressure increases, and the short - term support is followed by the risk of a decline [7] - Tin: The price approaches the resistance area, and short positions in far - month contracts are recommended [9] - Alumina: It is at a high level, and the risk of a correction after a sharp increase needs attention [6] - Cast aluminum alloy: It is relatively strong compared to aluminum prices, and the supply shortage provides support [5] Chemicals - Polysilicon: The futures price hits the daily limit, and the cost transfer needs to be focused on [10] - Industrial silicon: Driven by polysilicon, it is expected to oscillate upward [11] - Methanol: Affected by coal production inspections, the sustainability of the increase remains to be seen [23] - Pure benzene: The spot price lags behind, and the monthly spread trading strategy is recommended [24] - Styrene: The supply and demand both increase slightly, and the inventory continues to accumulate [25] - Polypropylene and plastic: The market sentiment improves, but the fundamentals remain weak [25] - PVC and caustic soda: PVC is affected by capacity elimination and upstream news, and caustic soda is affected by macro factors [26] - PX and PTA: The price is under pressure, and the recovery of downstream demand is awaited [27] - Ethylene glycol: It is temporarily strong, but the supply increase may weaken the upward momentum [28] - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips: Short - fiber may be long - position allocated in the medium term [29] Building Materials - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The steel price oscillates, and the market sentiment is optimistic due to policies [12] - Iron ore: The supply increases, and the demand is stable. The short - term trend is upward [13] - Coke: The price continues to rise, and the inventory decreases slightly [14] - Coking coal: The price hits the daily limit, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [15] - Manganese silicon: The inventory decreases, and it follows the rebar trend [16] - Ferrosilicon: The demand is acceptable, and it follows the rebar trend with a weak increase [17] - Glass: Driven by macro - sentiment, the price rises, and the long - term focus is on capacity reduction [30] Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal: The US soybean good - quality rate declines slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate before the tariff and weather issues are clear [33] - Soybean oil and palm oil: The price oscillates, and long - position allocation on dips is recommended [34] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed declines, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [35] - Soybean No.1: It rebounds strongly, and the short - term focus is on weather and policies [36] - Corn: The US corn grows well, and the Dalian corn futures may oscillate at the bottom [37] - Live pigs: The futures market is strong, and the focus is on policy implementation [38] - Eggs: The price enters the seasonal rebound stage, and the cold - storage egg release needs attention [39] - Cotton: The price rises slightly, and temporary wait - and - see or intraday trading is recommended [40] - Sugar: The price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as production and trade [41] - Apples: The price of new - season early - maturing apples increases, and temporary wait - and - see is recommended [42] - Wood: The price oscillates, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [43] - Pulp: The price rises, and temporary wait - and - see or light long - position on dips is recommended [44] Financial Products - Stock index: The A - share market rises, and the risk preference is expected to remain strong. Increase allocation to technology growth [45] - Treasury bonds: The price declines, and the short - term oscillation is expected, with a steeper yield curve [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips are recommended [2]. - For methanol, the market is currently driven by news, with increased volatility and difficulty in operation. The upstream开工 continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions are mostly priced in. The demand side is weak overall, and the upside is limited in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, although affected by short - term sentiment, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable. The price has support at the bottom but is also suppressed by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have been rising strongly, and the overall commodity market has strong bullish sentiment. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year, with a medium - term bullish view. Short - term risks of pull - backs should be guarded against [8][11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the extension of anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. The price is strong in the short term under the stimulation of anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the cost - side support has returned strongly, and the BZN spread is expected to repair. The price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support has returned, but due to high trader inventories and weak seasonal demand, the price is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. With high - level downstream PTA load and low inventory, there is limited short - term negative feedback from the polyester and terminal sectors. It is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter, and short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips are worthy of attention [18][20]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and demand is under pressure in the off - season. However, due to low inventory and improved processing fees, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking at a low level provides support for the valuation [22]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, 2025, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.71, or 1.06%, at $66.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, or 0.61%, at $68.67; INE main crude oil futures closed down 23.40 yuan, or 4.35%, at 514.7 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Fujeirah port's weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 8.30 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.18 million barrels, a 9.44% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 9.99 million barrels, a 4.87% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.72 million barrels to 20.47 million barrels, a 3.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 14 yuan/ton, with a basis of +1 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream开工 continued to decline, and overseas plant开工 returned to medium - high levels. The port olefin load increased this week, while traditional demand was in the off - season. The overall demand was weak, and the downstream profit margin was still low [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic开工 decreased slightly, and enterprise profits were at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers started to pick up, and export container - loading continued, with rising port inventories [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU continued to rise strongly [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend is favorable in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 142 yuan to 5260 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5080 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 102) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+5) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side remained stable, the overall开工 rate increased, the downstream开工 decreased, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased. The fundamental pessimistic expectations improved, but supply - demand and valuation still faced pressure [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period and had room for upward repair [12][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene开工 increased, supply was abundant, the benzene ethylene开工 continued to rise, port inventories increased significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall开工 rate fluctuated upward [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side support returned, the spot price remained unchanged, trader inventories were at a high level, and seasonal demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, the开工 rate was expected to gradually recover, downstream开工 decreased seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 24 yuan to 6886 yuan, PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 843 dollars, the basis was 57 (- 22) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 96 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China decreased slightly, the Asian load remained unchanged, some plants had changes, PTA load remained flat, imports decreased, inventories decreased, and the valuation was at a neutral level [18][20]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan to 4794 yuan, the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4775 yuan, the basis was 2 (- 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 (- 6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load remained unchanged, downstream load decreased, terminal load decreased, inventories increased, and the processing fee decreased. Supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and demand was under pressure in the off - season [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 37 yuan to 4447 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4490 yuan, the basis was 60 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 6 (- 9) yuan [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side开工 decreased, downstream load decreased, import arrivals were expected, port inventories decreased, and the valuation was relatively high year - on - year. The fundamental situation was expected to turn weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking provided support [22].

Core Viewpoint - The listing of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange enhances the variety of the domestic futures market and provides significant changes for the propylene industry chain [1][3]. Industry Overview - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product and the largest olefin variety in China, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The propylene industry features active trade, convenient storage, and broad demand, which will be better supported by the new futures and options [3]. Market Dynamics - The listing of propylene futures and options will meet the diverse needs of various market participants, enhancing market liquidity [3]. - Upstream producers can lock in production profits through selling hedges, while downstream companies can secure low raw material prices through buying hedges [3]. Risk Management - The new financial instruments will provide richer risk management tools for industry chain enterprises, enhancing resilience and supporting high-quality development [3][4]. - The introduction of these products is expected to improve the health of the national propylene industry chain by offering effective inventory valuation and processing range hedging tools [4]. International Trade - Domestic propylene companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, but they often rely on less representative and transparent foreign pricing sources [4]. - The new futures and options are anticipated to enhance the international influence of Chinese propylene prices, thereby improving trade efficiency for domestic enterprises [4]. Tool Diversification - The availability of both futures and options allows for more refined risk management, catering to the diverse and personalized needs of enterprises [4].