Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly falling on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the future [7]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons or 0.05%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 2.36%, while that in general trade increased by 0.40% [9]. - As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.17 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decline of 0.67 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In June 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 13.63%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.9871 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 70,600 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.78%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The acetic acid operating rate was 97.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 50.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20% [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.39%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points. The domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was - 138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 62 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 499,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,400 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 47. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418.95 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels week - on - week [15]. - As of July 1, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 234,693 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 1,724 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 166,510 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 23,997 contracts [16]. Group 3: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,045 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,440 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 68 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 511.6 yuan/barrel | + 5.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | - 5.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Group 4: Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 in the short - term [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase in stockpiling, with the bonded warehouse maintaining inventory reduction and the general trade inventory increase narrowing. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing have decreased month - on - month, and the port's outbound rate has decreased month - on - month less than the inbound rate [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. This week, as enterprises gradually end maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 60; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,095 yuan/ton, with a change of 25; the 8 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 35. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 152,032 lots, a decrease of 835; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,278 lots, a decrease of 2,644 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 20,439, a decrease of 15; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,400, a decrease of 187. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,760 tons, a decrease of 30; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 35,583 tons, an increase of 1,311 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 4; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.52. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.3 [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, a decrease of 1.89; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, a decrease of 7.64. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.45 days, a decrease of 1.48; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.48 days, a decrease of 1.67 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.02%, a decrease of 0.07; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.68%, an increase of 0.05. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.63 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.85 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.12 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May and an increase of about 29% compared with the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, and NR is rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Driven by the warming macro - atmosphere, rubber prices rebounded slightly. Currently, the absolute price of rubber is at a low level. From the perspective of spreads and production profits, RU is in an undervalued range, and the valuation of NR is not significantly overvalued. However, the current driving force is still weak due to the peak rubber - tapping season at home and abroad, with production maintaining a recovery pattern. Affected by seasonal rainfall, it is not the peak period of raw material output. In China, due to the better profit of concentrated latex factories than that of whole - latex production, the phenomenon of factories competing for raw materials still exists, and domestic raw material prices remain firm. But overseas rainfall has eased, and it is expected that raw material prices will continue to weaken, reducing the cost - side support for rubber. This week, the maintenance of domestic semi - steel tire factories may gradually end, and the operating rate is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak. For BR, the news of the fault of the upstream atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of butadiene and the warming macro - atmosphere drove a significant rebound in cis - butadiene rubber. However, the actual impact on the butadiene unit is limited. The supply is expected to change little this week. Although Shandong Yihua is under maintenance, some private units have plans to increase production. The production profit is still around the break - even point, limiting the supply increase. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tire factories is expected to rebound month - on - month, but the terminal demand is weak, and the rebound amplitude is limited. The supply - demand contradiction of cis - butadiene rubber itself is not significant. The upstream butadiene raw material supply is abundant, and there is rigid procurement at low prices, so the price fluctuation is expected to be limited. Cis - butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,660 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons, with different growth rates in different regions. - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. - USA: In the first five months of 2025, the United States imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the United States imported a total of 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the RU basis was - 35 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+ 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,192 yuan/ton (- 37.10), the NR basis was 234.00 yuan/ton (+ 11.00). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 7.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.53% (- 0.70%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 64.13% (- 6.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,590 tons (+ 7,445.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), the RU futures inventory was 188,850 tons (- 3,110), and the NR futures inventory was 29,736 tons (+ 2,118) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 8, 2025, the BR basis was - 155 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,150 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,170 yuan/ton (+ 251). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98% (+ 0.19%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,800 tons (+ 430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,350 tons (- 1,300) [3]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Core Insights - Rubber futures prices are rising due to increased automobile sales in China and weather conditions in Thailand acting as an X factor [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The growth in automobile sales in China is a significant factor driving the demand for rubber [1] - Weather conditions in Thailand are influencing the supply side of the rubber market, creating uncertainty [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The combination of rising demand from China and supply uncertainties from Thailand could lead to increased volatility in rubber prices [1]

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements in each sector, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings. The overall market is influenced by factors such as policies, international trade, and seasonal patterns, with different sectors showing distinct characteristics and outlooks [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance Index Futures - **Macro News**: The US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on Sino - US trade. Northern Rare Earth is optimistic about future rare earth prices. In June, the retail sales of national passenger cars reached 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. There is no exact news about silicon material storage from Tongwei Co., Ltd [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided. It is recommended to buy IH or IF index futures on dips and also consider IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading suggests buying IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 62 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data shows structural differentiation affected by tariffs. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards liquidity. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and COMEX gold declined, while COMEX silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.42%, and the US dollar index is 97.55 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak US inflation and economic data enhance the expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of silver [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper declined, and Shanghai copper closed at 80,030 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. There are uncertainties in US copper tariff policies [10]. - **Price Forecast**: Shanghai copper is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper between 9,400 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.53%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,540 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the long - position sentiment is uncertain. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and consolidate, with Shanghai aluminum trading between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton and LME aluminum between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index declined. Zinc ore supply is high, and zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. Zinc prices are under pressure [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined slightly. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stabilized. Lead prices are expected to be relatively strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead may be limited [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices were weak. The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the stainless - steel demand and the cost of nickel iron. It is recommended to short nickel on rallies, with Shanghai nickel trading between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel between 14,500 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that domestic tin prices will oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin prices between 31,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The upward space of lithium prices is limited without macro - level positive factors. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 trading between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [18][19]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied in the short term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is mainly affected by aluminum prices. The price has strong resistance above [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a weak and oscillating trend. The policy of "anti - involution and capacity reduction" has an impact on the market, but the specific implementation is uncertain. Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel will suppress exports [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand, and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore rose. The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand also declined. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price of glass was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short - selling positions should be avoided [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The demand is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon closed slightly higher, and ferrosilicon closed slightly lower. The fundamentals of the two products are weak, but the market is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: Industrial silicon futures rose. The supply of industrial silicon is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by policy expectations and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and hedging positions can be operated when there is a profit [32][33]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded. The market has priced in the small - scale storage expectation. The bullish and bearish views are different. The tire开工 rate is neutral, and the inventory is increasing [35][36][37]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, a neutral view in the short term, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. There is uncertainty in geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of methanol declined. The upstream maintenance increased, and the demand decreased. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The short - term supply decreased, and the demand is expected to improve. The price has support below and is recommended to be short - term long on dips [42]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene was stable, and the futures price declined. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly [43][44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose slightly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [45][46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined. The supply and demand are both weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract was stable. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. In the third quarter, it is expected to de - stock. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49][50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE declined. Affected by the OPEC+ production increase, the cost decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic pig price was slightly stronger. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the second - fattening space is still available. The short - term long - position may have space, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs mostly declined. The supply is stable, and the demand is cautious. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and the mid - term price may be affected by supply and premium [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybeans declined, and domestic soybean meal prices also decreased. The supply of soybeans and protein is in excess. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased, and domestic palm oil prices strengthened. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but there are also factors suppressing the upward space. The market is expected to oscillate [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar exports increased in June, and the domestic import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to continue to decline [61]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs". The basis between futures and spot is strengthening, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. There are still weather disturbances in Yunnan, with firm raw material purchase prices. In Hainan, the tapping operations are gradually resuming, but the supply is still lower than the same period in previous years. The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse continuing to reduce inventory and the general trade inventory increasing at a narrowing rate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as the enterprise maintenance ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was -875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was -10 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,867 lots, with a daily decrease of 793 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,922 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,750 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -20,424 lots, with a daily increase of 969 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -6,213 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,790 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 188,790 tons, with a daily decrease of 30 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 34,272 tons, with a daily increase of 1,512 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shanghai rubber basis was -35 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,228 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 158 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.52 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 47.8 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.65 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 152.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 6.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, with a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, with a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate was 63.75%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.41%, with a decrease of 7.64 percentage points. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.45 days, with a decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.48 days, with a decrease of 1.67 days. - The monthly output of full - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, with an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, with an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.08%, with a daily decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a daily decrease of 1.2 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From July 6th to July 12th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased slightly. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping increased slightly. - As of July 6th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak domestic raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, the overall inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly last week, but the downstream shipment pressure remained high, and the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises' production schedules were stable, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. This week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will resume, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,305 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 28,033, down 2,243; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 1,600 tons, up 500 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased, with a decline of 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 145 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.28 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 dollars/barrel, up 1.43 dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 577 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, up 1.16 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, down 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.97%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98%, down 1.56 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 164 yuan/ton, up 414 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, down 1,300 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,800 tons, up 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% [2]. - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 5.333 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].