1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are driven up by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks [3]. - Copper prices are in a state of multi - factor intersection and remain volatile. The upside is limited by weak demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors, while the support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short term, but there is pressure above. Breaking through the 21,000 pressure level requires the fulfillment of peak - season expectations, a significant improvement in demand, and inventory reduction [35]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand awaiting the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" [63]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals [76]. - Tin prices have an upward driving force due to the tight supply, despite the demand pressure [93]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage, with attention paid to the environmental protection situation on the supply side and the continuation of downstream restocking [111]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been strengthened to 89%, which suppresses the US dollar and boosts the financial attribute of gold. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe increase the demand for hedging, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks provides long - term support, jointly driving up the gold price [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, mainly shows relevant price and inventory data [4][12]. Copper - **Price**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures shows an increase, with the daily increase of the main contract being 0.47%. The price of LME copper 3M also increases by 0.68%. The support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid, but the upside is limited by weak demand [15][16]. - **Supply - demand**: The spot premium increases with the price increase, and the refined - scrap price difference is close to a reasonable level. The demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors is weak, and the supply may shrink after September due to Fed rate cuts and maintenance [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and domestic policies are beneficial to the price. The start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand shows signs of recovery in the peak season, but the production and transportation control during the September parade may affect inventory reduction. The possible reduction in recycled aluminum supply supports the consumption of primary aluminum [35]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in a state of oversupply in the second half of the year, which suppresses the price. The environmental protection limit order for some alumina plants in Henan has only a short - term impact on production [36]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of waste - using enterprises, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [37]. Zinc - **Supply**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc - ore price has an advantage, and the overseas zinc - ore supply is relatively loose. The increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large, and the overseas refined - zinc increment is small [63]. - **Demand**: The demand is not significantly affected by the parade and remains stable. It is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October", and there is a strong positive correlation with black varieties [63]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious [63]. Nickel - **Market Trend**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets oscillated last week, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals. The support of nickel ore continues, and the upward space of nickel iron needs attention. The new - energy sector was relatively strong last week [76]. Tin - **Supply - demand**: Tin prices are rising due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 30. In August 2025, the output of refined tin decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to enterprise maintenance and the decrease in tin - concentrate imports in July [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the futures market declined last week, and the spot - market trading volume decreased. The production - scheduling data of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises increased by 5% month - on - month this month, providing support for the peak - season expectation. The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - **New Energy Metals**: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - **Investment View**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Import Side**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Demand Side**: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - **Investment View**: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].

Group 1: Economic Events and Market Impact - The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may weaken the dollar, providing new momentum for the resource market, particularly precious metals and copper [1] - The geopolitical complexities and resource control by countries, such as cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo and nickel in Indonesia, are leading to a reassessment of the value of scarce resources [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and AI - Apple's upcoming fall event is expected to showcase advancements in edge AI technology, which may drive demand growth across the entire supply chain [2] - Meta's release of AR glasses could introduce new development directions for the industry, despite the current lack of widespread application scenarios [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Investment Opportunities - Industries with significant capital expenditure over the past two years, such as power semiconductors and electrolytes, are showing signs of marginal reduction and may have substantial upside potential [2] - The military industry is expected to enhance expectations for China's military trade exports, with China's arms exports holding a 5.8% share of the global market [3] - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to see an increase in catalytic events, with potential investment value re-emerging as the market shifts focus [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to concentrate their investments in sectors such as resources, innovative drugs, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military, which show strong development trends and profit realization potential [3] - Consideration of related ETF products, such as those focused on non-ferrous metals, rare metals, and innovative drugs, is recommended for portfolio diversification and risk control [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are supported by a weakening US dollar index, an 87.2% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, mixed labor - market data, and Middle - East geopolitical tensions [3]. - Copper prices face upward pressure from the US dollar index and demand feedback at high prices, but are supported by increasing downstream acceptance, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short - term due to dovish Fed signals and increasing downstream restocking, while alumina is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply surpluses [33]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with supply in a surplus state, stable demand, and potential risks of a short squeeze in LME inventories [62]. - The nickel industry shows stability in nickel ore, firmness in nickel iron, and an uncertain outlook for stainless steel and nickel sulfate, with attention on the September rate - cut expectation [77]. - Tin prices may rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - Carbonate lithium prices may have short - term rebound opportunities if there are supply disruptions, but the long - term supply - demand situation remains loose [103]. - Industrial silicon is in a wait - and - see state, with its开工 rate potentially peaking, and polysilicon requires attention to industry policies [111]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Supported by a low - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and economic data, pushing up prices [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily view provided, but multiple data charts on prices, spreads, and inventories are presented [4][6][11]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term upward pressure and downward support coexist, with a target support price of 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Market Data**: Various copper futures and spot prices show daily increases, with different price changes in different contracts [16][19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME copper inventory increased by 1.19% to 157,950 tons, and the scrap - refined copper spread remained stable [15][31]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term upward - biased oscillation due to macro and demand factors [33]. - **Alumina**: Weak short - term oscillation due to supply surpluses, with a support range of 3000 - 3050 yuan per ton and a reference upper range of 3250 - 3300 yuan per ton [33]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply and tax - policy changes, with a price spread of 400 - 500 yuan per ton from aluminum [34]. 3.4 Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is in a surplus state, demand is stable, and there is a potential short - squeeze risk in LME inventories [62]. - **Price Movement**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.73% to 2781 dollars per ton, while domestic zinc prices declined slightly [63]. 3.5 Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: Stable, with a possible slight decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in September [77]. - **Nickel Iron**: Relatively firm, with some large - scale transactions above 940 [77]. - **Stainless Steel and Nickel Sulfate**: Both show oscillating trends, with attention on the September - October peak season [77]. 3.6 Tin - **Price Outlook**: May rise due to falling social inventories and decent demand from solder enterprises [92]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures prices increased, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising 2.19% to 278,650 yuan per ton [93]. 3.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Outlook**: Short - term potential for price rebounds with supply disruptions, but long - term supply - demand remains loose [103]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices declined, with the main carbonate lithium futures contract dropping 960 yuan to 77,180 yuan per ton [104][106]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: Suggest a wait - and - see approach, with the开工 rate potentially peaking [111]. - **Market Data**: Spot and futures prices declined, with the industrial silicon main contract dropping 2.1% to 8390 yuan per ton [112][115].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still favorable, with both inventory and production decreasing. After the decline of the futures price, the downstream purchasing willingness remains high. Affected by the disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the price fluctuation is large. The report suggests short - term cautious bullishness and attention to the start - up situation of other mines [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,380 yuan/ton, a - 0.30% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 626,916 lots, and the open interest was 368,667 lots. The basis was 3,340 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 25,630 lots, a change of 640 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 - 84,800 yuan/ton, a - 1,400 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,600 - 80,800 yuan/ton, also a - 1,400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot price has declined, and the downstream purchasing and price - setting behavior has become more stable compared to last week. The trading volume has decreased today, and the downstream purchasing attitude has turned cautious [1]. - Currently in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, downstream demand still has certain rigid support [1]. Production and Inventory - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while the production from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. The downstream inventory increased significantly, and the smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term cautious bullish, pay attention to the start - up situation of other mines. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.188 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.04%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 745 million RMB, up 63.95% year-on-year [2] - The overseas building materials segment benefited from optimized layout and pricing strategies, achieving a revenue of 3.771 billion RMB in H1 2025, a significant increase of 90.08% [3] - The lithium carbonate segment saw a sales volume of approximately 20,600 tons in H1 2025, with a contribution to net profit of 168 million RMB, reflecting a positive trend due to cost optimization [4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.188 billion RMB, with a net profit of 745 million RMB and a non-recurring net profit of 700 million RMB, marking increases of 49.04%, 63.95%, and 75.06% respectively [2] Operational Analysis - Revenue structure for H1 2025: Overseas building materials (46%), building materials machinery (31%), lithium battery materials (11%), and new energy equipment (9%), with overseas revenue accounting for over 65% [3] - The overseas building materials segment's revenue reached 3.771 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 36.80%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The ceramics machinery segment experienced a revenue decline of 5.01% to 2.570 billion RMB due to industry demand slowdown [4] - The lithium carbonate segment's average price was 60,300 RMB/ton, down 2,270 RMB/ton year-on-year, but still contributed positively to profits due to cost reductions [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.544 billion RMB, 1.807 billion RMB, and 1.962 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.7, 12.6, and 11.6 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend in July revolves around the theme of "anti-involution," with the non-ferrous metal sector showing significant gains, particularly in response to government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the non-ferrous index achieved a growth rate of 5.7%, ranking 8th among all industries, with small metals and energy metals performing exceptionally well [2]. - The central government's focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to drive improvements in product quality and industry standards [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Context - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need for regulatory measures to combat disordered competition and promote high-quality development [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, on July 18, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reform Analysis - The analysis of supply-side structural reforms indicates that the non-ferrous index's performance is closely tied to policy announcements, with historical data showing significant correlations between policy implementation and index fluctuations [2][3]. - The current "anti-involution" movement is set against a backdrop of global restructuring, aiming not only for price stabilization but also for sustainable high-quality growth [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Insights - Japan's experience with anti-involution reforms in the cement industry serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of industry consolidation and capacity coordination to enhance market efficiency [3][4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the current anti-involution efforts may lead to increased mergers and collaborations within the industry, potentially raising market concentration and fostering high-quality development [4].